Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14

Isos wrote:

VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.

Yeah... Obviously it's a parody. Why waste a page discussing it.

Love the rooster in the middle of it all though, nice touch.

I expanded on my previous post on artillery and fortifications and made it a blog entry analysis, adding some things that have confirmed my educated guesses

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/05/04/artilleria-y-fortificaciones-problemas-de-la-ofensiva-rusa/

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

Isos wrote:

VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.

Yeah... Obviously it's a parody. Why waste a page discussing it.

Love the rooster in the middle of it all though, nice touch.

Also, the parody is at least 5 years old.

YouTube 2017:
https://youtu.be/akDbXldLesc

Why don't anybody bother with even elementary research? The search term "Ukrainian mortar" on Yandex gave me that old video immediately.

franco wrote:

limb wrote:
They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

They received 65 last year so obviously you are a graduate of the American school system.  They truly are exceptional

Somebody tell him that a tank is called MBT and not AFV.

Cuba


Bridge in Dnjepropetrovsk hit.

More donations

Long overdue according to most, one of the main rail bridges across the Dnepr was struck today. Since that "threshold" has been passed now I suspect we'll see lots of that in the coming days.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

Isos wrote:

VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.

Yeah... Obviously it's a parody. Why waste a page discussing it.

Love the rooster in the middle of it all though, nice touch.

Also, the parody is at least 5 years old.

YouTube 2017:
https://youtu.be/akDbXldLesc

Why don't anybody bother with even elementary research? The search term "Ukrainian mortar" on Yandex gave me that old video immediately.

It is from 2017, but it does not change the possibility that the guy was really killed.

Hole wrote:
More donations

I am eagerly awaiting the first capture of Starstreak or so.

Captured Javelin, NLAW, AT4, PzF 3 etc number in the thousands already. Getting kinda old.

In fact, the LDNR seems to have received more equipment from NATO/EU and Ukraine over the past two months than they received from Russia back in 2014.

Washington and Brussels supporting the republics.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:

Hole wrote:
More donations

I am eagerly awaiting the first capture of Starstreak or so.

Captured Javelin, NLAW, AT4, PzF 3 etc number in the thousands already. Getting kinda old.

Ukrainians are selling them to russians for little money so that they can buy plane tickets to leave the counrry with their family.

IMO with 10 million $ Russia can buy all the weapons provided by the west.

Isos wrote:

diabetus wrote:

limb wrote:

Stealthflanker wrote:

Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

Name something that can't be destroyed in war.

Stupidity.

More seriously this war as well as the other modern ones show how vehicles are easy to destroy. Making them expensive and state of art is useless. Even with APS they will be easy targets.

Another surprising thing is that laser guided mkssiles are mostly used yet the tank's laser warning sensor never spot them. There was no recorded case of smoke grenade being employed by tanks. Neither russians nor nato tanks.

The war also showed how man portable weapons and soldiers are still the best tool out there.

Exactly. Stupidity most likely got the T-90 destroyed. It also could've been destroyed by passive ATGMs like javelin. Tanks would need a MAWS to detect them.



Btw all Ukrainian forces who fought around Kiev we're successfully transferred around gulyaipole.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/46935

So much for them being pinned down

limb wrote:

Isos wrote:

diabetus wrote:

limb wrote:

Stealthflanker wrote:

Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

Name something that can't be destroyed in war.

Stupidity.

More seriously this war as well as the other modern ones show how vehicles are easy to destroy. Making them expensive and state of art is useless. Even with APS they will be easy targets.

Another surprising thing is that laser guided mkssiles are mostly used yet the tank's laser warning sensor never spot them. There was no recorded case of smoke grenade being employed by tanks. Neither russians nor nato tanks.

The war also showed how man portable weapons and soldiers are still the best tool out there.

Exactly. Stupidity most likely got the T-90 destroyed.  It also could've been destroyed by passive ATGMs like javelin. Tanks would need a MAWS to detect them.



Btw all Ukrainian forces who fought around Kiev we're successfully transferred around gulyaipole.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/46935

So much for them being pinned down

What perfect world do you live in where you take zero losses in a war?

limb wrote:

0nillie0 wrote:

limb wrote:

Stealthflanker wrote:

Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

Because the knowledge and ability to build additional ones has been lost to the ages...

Nope, the tuvan firefighter just doesn't seem it necessary to have more than 20 for all these years. After all, T-72B3s are all that's needed.

It's the bean counters in the Finance Ministry who couldn't efficiently run the budget of a hotdog stand who nickel and dimed defense procurement. Maybe they and the Central bankers should have focused on the $300 billion they lost. Probably the reason Russian armor doesn't have widely deployed APS. Too expensive. I'm no military expert but I have been saying for years that armor absent APS on the modern battlefield is an expensive metal coffin.

calripson wrote:...It's the bean counters in the Finance Ministry who couldn't efficiently run the budget of a hotdog stand who nickel and dimed defense procurement....

Considering how military originally planned to fight this war it's a good thing they nickled and dimed it

This way they only lost personnel

And keep in mind that Finance Ministry are the ones keeping Russia in one piece and in the fight

If it were up to other idiots they would have wasted every last cent in advance leaving nothing for the war chest and there would have been Maidan in the Red Square as we speak

calripson wrote:

limb wrote:

0nillie0 wrote:

limb wrote:

Stealthflanker wrote:

Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

Because the knowledge and ability to build additional ones has been lost to the ages...

Nope, the tuvan firefighter just doesn't seem it necessary to have more than 20 for all these years. After all, T-72B3s are all that's needed.

It's the bean counters in the Finance Ministry who couldn't efficiently run the budget of a hotdog stand who nickel and dimed defense procurement. Maybe they and the Central bankers should have focused on the $300 billion they lost. Probably the reason Russian armor doesn't have widely deployed APS. Too expensive. I'm no military expert but I have been saying for years that armor absent APS on the modern battlefield is an expensive metal coffin.

To be fair, western tanks also don't have APS. However the tuvan firefighter wasted money on James bond villain nuclear torpedos and tank biathlons instead of practical things like glide bombs, thermal sights and fire suppression sulystems on Russian cruisers.

But more pressingly, the Russians have failed to pin down Ukrainian forces in Kiev since those forces have successfully crossed the dnepr and deployed in the Donbass

lyle6 wrote:

limb wrote:

They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

This is a devastating loss for Russia. As recompense, the Russians are going to take out the Kharkov tank plant and reverse engineer countermeasures using the many, many samples of top-shelf Western anti-tank weapons in Russian hands.  

Wake me up when they have taken Kramatorsk.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:For Russia the problem lays not in losing some settlements but rather their manpower, they have very limited forces and each loss is a blow.
Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.
That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.
I suspect Ukraine hopes if they kill just enough russians that will force Putin's hand, as they probably think he will not risk serving backlash from Russian people going full-scale war mode.

In the end, there is a path to victory that Ukraine can get, its a very specific and narrow point but its entirely possible.

There is no path to victory for Ukraine here anymore

Average Russian is 100% behind this war now which is a massive change from first couple of weeks and Ukrainians have only themselves to blame thanks to their shenanigans, in fact population in Russia would support mobilization (this is pretty much unprecedented)  



Whatever original Russian plan was it's ancient history now, this is completely new ball game now



Winning this war quickly would be disastrous for Russia and it should be avoided at all costs, if they do they would be stuck babysitting and funding Afghanistan on steroids

What they should do (and what they are doing now) is to go slowly and kill as many able bodied Ukrainians as possible before moving forward and cutting up Ukraine into cheaper and easily manageable components



Since Ukraine will never run out of weapons or money the best and only way to neutralize them is to kill their manpower, they have a lot of cheap walking corpses but there is finite amount of them

Ukrainians are the ones losing way more people than Russians right now and even of those Russian losses majority seems to be from local militias and not Russian Army

This will only get worse for Ukraine the longer this lasts and Russia should make it last as long as possible, mountain of Ukrainian corpses is also necessary as a post-war message and it needs to be made massive



For the first time in it's history Russia is in the situation where it's fighting a war with properly equipped and motivated military, with stable finances and with full support of it's population

This never happened before, best they could have hoped for in previous wars was maybe 2 out of 3 but even that was rare

They need to use this situation to it's full extent

Only way for Russia to lose this war is to do it on purpose

Hole wrote:
DPR reservists

The mosin is still a capable sniper/marksman rifle especially in built up areas such as towns villages. They seem have decent uniforms etc. And at least camo their weapons.

[quote="PapaDragon"]

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Winning this war quickly would be disastrous for Russia and it should be avoided at all costs, if they do they would be stuck babysitting and funding Afghanistan on steroids

What they should do (and what they are doing now) is to go slowly and kill as many able bodied Ukrainians as possible before moving forward and cutting up Ukraine into cheaper and easily manageable components

The major difference between Russia in Ukraine to America and its proxies in Afghanistan is that these people are largely ethnic Russians and speak Russian with a strong connection historically, whereas Afghanistan was on the far side of the world from America being occupied by foreigners who spoke different language and had no cultural or historical connection to the Afghan people.

d_taddei2 wrote:

The mosin is still a capable sniper/marksman rifle especially in built up areas such as towns villages. They seem have decent uniforms etc. And at least camo their weapons.

In a built up area they would be sitting ducks with bolt actions. AK-74 would leave them no chance. In fields - I would argue, but that's just insane. Razvedos and other russians professionals(SF, snipers) discussed this topic to death few months ago. They been in combat and killed people and know what works and what doesn't. If you carry bolt action, make sure you have AK with you or you are toast and even then, it's dead weight until you know you are totally safe. Don't tell me Russia has shortage of SVD to donate?

It's a photo op anyway, or they are stupid and have no spotters with them, their job would be to save their ass if someone gets close.

PapaDragon wrote:
Considering how military originally planned to fight this war it's a good thing they nickled and dimed it

This way they only lost personnel

And keep in mind that Finance Ministry are the ones keeping Russia in one piece and in the fight

If it were up to other idiots they would have wasted every last cent in advance leaving nothing for the war chest and there would have been Maidan in the Red Square as we speak

No excuse for minimal procurement in what matters making BTGs overwhelming force. Some crowdfunding is embarrassing as local commercial companies are filling the gaps. No secure coms with Chinese walkie-talkies is not some Ukrainian propaganda, I am on TG group where people buy this shit and send to Russian (not DNR/LNR) units. What about NVGs and thermals? Shit is locally produced, apart from small drones. Russian civilians are doing lend-lease here, imagine what could Abramovich money that he still has in Russia could buy?

No one in Russia will cry if some oligarch will be put on a chopping block and his bank accounts will be bled to death for the sake of war effort. How much does Chubais still have in Russia?

In the end, domestic stuff is sitting on the shelves. I am taking about gear, optics and etc, enough to make DNR/LNR a second IDF.

It doesn't matter what fucking tank it is being used in the end, it's a war of artillery and Russia needs to dominate it so no return strikes will be coming possible. Also, Russian units need to dominate the night as Ukraine has little night fighting capability. I am not talking about SSO incursions, but about  brigade size movements under the cover of dark. Apart from flares, Ukrainian units still have little ability to light up the battlefield. Night fighting capabilities at the moment for both sides are limited and shit starts in the morning and ends at night.

Sorry for the rant, but I am not the only one who thinks that Russia needs to go balls deep and end it here and now and then deal with monetary consequences.

Regular wrote:
No excuse for minimal procurement in what matters making BTGs overwhelming force. Some crowdfunding is embarrassing as local commercial companies are filling the gaps. No secure coms with Chinese walkie-talkies is not some Ukrainian propaganda, I am on TG group where people buy this shit and send to Russian (not DNR/LNR) units. What about NVGs and thermals? Shit is locally produced, apart from small drones. Russian civilians are doing lend-lease here, imagine what could Abramovich money that he still has in Russia could buy?

No one in Russia will cry if some oligarch will be put on a chopping block and his bank accounts will be bled to death for the sake of war effort. How much does Chubais still have in Russia?

In the end, domestic stuff is sitting on the shelves. I am taking about gear, optics and etc, enough to make DNR/LNR a second IDF.

It doesn't matter what fucking tank it is being used in the end, it's a war of artillery and Russia needs to dominate it so no return strikes will be coming possible. Also, Russian units need to dominate the night as Ukraine has little night fighting capability. I am not talking about SSO incursions, but about  brigade size movements under the cover of dark. Apart from flares, Ukrainian units still have little ability to light up the battlefield. Night fighting capabilities at the moment for both sides are limited and shit starts in the morning and ends at night.

Sorry for the rant, but I am not the only one who thinks that Russia needs to go balls deep and end it here and now and then deal with monetary consequences.

You're completely right. I'm seeing the same thing. Where some military journalists on the ground, regularly rant about need for additional recon drones and night vision equipment for Russian army. Pretty stupid situation considering that even good civilian drones like DJI enterprise are sub 10k with all bells and whistles (night vision camera, laser rangefinder etc).
Finally, they started hitting railway infrastructure in a serious manner. Hopefully, bridges are next, considering todays attack. For that, i will not blame solely military leadership, as that is, usually, as much political decision as is military one.
I also think that some sort of mobilization would need to be proclaimed. It looks like they have to learn everything the hard way.

I think strikes on infrastructure will suffocate Ukrainians in the end. There could be 100x more weapons going to Ukraine for what matters, but in the end it will never end up being on the frontline, not to mention training.

Logistics win the war and Russians are working hard to negate them. On Ukrainian telegram channels there are already complains about shortage or even mix up in ammo supplied to artillery units, imagine **** ups that will happen when they will employ 155 and other western stuff.

Ukraine is also deploying territorial guards closer to the front and that doesn't look very optimistic. So far auxiliary units are Papier Mache of this conflict. Lacking heavy equipment and training will be melted after the first push.