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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14

    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Wed May 04, 2022 7:29 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:For Russia the problem lays not in losing some settlements but rather their manpower, they have very limited forces and each loss is a blow.

    Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.

    That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.
    Mobilization is not a binary event, where either they call everyone or they don't call anyone. Calling ex contract soldiers under the age of 30 and some of the active reserves, should do the job.

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Wed May 04, 2022 7:31 pm

    I think Russia is not doing well at interdiction. Are they watching borders via satellite? Should they not be attacking trains inbound? If they don't have the guts to attack inbound trains, then they are in for a long bloody war.

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    Arrow


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    Post  Arrow Wed May 04, 2022 7:42 pm

    Ukrainian forces are shooting their own civilians again Neutral

    https://t.me/vysokygovorit/7757

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    Post  caveat emptor Wed May 04, 2022 7:44 pm

    mr_hd wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:For Russia the problem lays not in losing some settlements but rather their manpower, they have very limited forces and each loss is a blow.

    Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.

    That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.

    I suspect Ukraine hopes if they kill just enough russians that will force Putin's hand, as they probably think he will not risk serving backlash from Russian people going full-scale war mode.

    In the end, there is a path to victory that Ukraine can get, its a very specific and narrow point but its entirely possible.

    Fully agree and it is only path that Ukraine is following right now, so yes there is big danger for Russia, the longer conflict persist the longer risk is that Russia will need additional forces and full mobilization. Already that Russia needs to include paramilitary forces from Donbass and Chechens is clear sign of that. If fight continues of this intensity - tons of equipment and a lot of people are lost daily on both sides, in 2-3 months there will be some serious decisions needed on Russian side and very little good options. Very long and bloody conflict - years or even decades long is also realistic scenario.
    Some of you think that Ukraine has unlimited human pool. Ukraine has maybe the worst demographic situation in Europe. If attrition ratio favours Russia, the way it appears at the moment, there's no way they can win this war. Only way Ukraine could get a negotiated settlement out of this is if Russian politicians decide that losses are not worth it. All speculation atm.  One thing that works for them is that their leadership is willing to tolerate much higher losses than Russian. How will that resonate between soldiers fighting is another thing.

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    diabetus


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    Post  diabetus Wed May 04, 2022 8:06 pm

    I wonder how many volumes the lessons learned book will be after this is over?

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    Post  owais.usmani Wed May 04, 2022 8:13 pm

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    Post  Hole Wed May 04, 2022 8:22 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 37 Fr7fsa10
    warning of air attacks some time ago
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 37 Fr7jlu10
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #14 - Page 37 Fr7riv10
    Very Happy

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    Post  Hole Wed May 04, 2022 8:35 pm

    mr_hd wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    For Russia the problem lays not in losing some settlements but rather their manpower, they have very limited forces and each loss is a blow.

    Ukraine can afford to send much much more men to the front, if the russian force takes enough losses to the point it can not conduct proper battles anymore.

    That forces Putin to make a choice, give up or conduct a full scale mobilization.

    I suspect Ukraine hopes if they kill just enough russians that will force Putin's hand, as they probably think he will not risk serving backlash from Russian people going full-scale war mode.

    In the end, there is a path to victory that Ukraine can get, its a very specific and narrow point but its entirely possible.


    Fully agree and it is only path that Ukraine is following right now, so yes there is big danger for Russia, the longer conflict persist the longer risk is that Russia will need additional forces and full mobilization. Already that Russia needs to include paramilitary forces from Donbass and Chechens is clear sign of that. If fight continues of this intensity - tons of equipment and a lot of people are lost daily on both sides, in 2-3 months there will be some serious decisions needed on Russian side and very little good options. Very long and bloody conflict - years or even decades long is also realistic scenario.

    There is only one side in this conflict that is sustaining huge losses at that is Ukreich. They take 95%+ of the daily losses. They are the side which is unable to conduct proper battles from Day 2 of the conflict. They are only able to ambush a truck or an APC or sit in a house behind civilians and shot an RPG in the direction of the Russian Forces.

    Force Putin´s hand? 80%+ of the russian population support him.

    The paramilitary forces are there because this is a Special Operation with a lot of urban and Anti-Terrorist warfare. That´s why these specialists are there.

    In 2 - 3 month the Ukreich will have lost 150.000+ people. The difference between killed Nazi suckers and Russian/Allied soldiers will grow bigger and bigger because there are more and more Reserve and Volkssturm people send to the frontline with a few days of military training.

    And you censored now that Russia fought a 10 year long war in the Caucasus against NATO backed terrorists at a time when it had like 10% of todays economy. Why should the Russia of today have a problem fighting a few hundred Nazis in her south-western regions for a few years?

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    Odin of Ossetia
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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Wed May 04, 2022 8:44 pm

    kvs wrote:@ALAMO

    The post WWII insurgency (with western sponsored, trained and delivered militants) cost about 47,000 security forces lives and
    about 225,000 civilian lives.  

    Some of those UK trained insurgents I have known in Canada when they were still alive.  



    Yet more evidence that "kvs" is a Ukrainian disinformation agent.

    What is the basis for the 47 000 security forces personnel supposedly killed by the UPA?


    And the 225 000 civilians probably includes the 100 000 or perhaps 200 000 ethnic Poles.

    Yes, UPA was into mass murdering and genocide, but not of fellow ethnic Ukrainians, but of minorities.


    http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html


    UPA usually performed poorly against armed opposition, even against often badly armed Polish partisans.



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    Post  VARGR198 Wed May 04, 2022 8:49 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Wed May 04, 2022 8:55 pm

    VARGR198 wrote:
    owais.usmani wrote:

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.



    Looks like the guy was tricked into doing this.

    Somebody gave him wrong instructions on purpose to get rid of him.

    And of course it was filmed to show "that it was his own fault."

    He clearly looks like a novice, but has been given the basic instructions on how to use the mortar, except for the last and most important part which I think somebody on purpose told him to do the wrong way.





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    Post  Isos Wed May 04, 2022 8:57 pm

    VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

    That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.

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    Post  limb Wed May 04, 2022 8:59 pm

    Stealthflanker wrote:
    Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
    https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

    Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

    Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

    They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

    It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

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    Post  0nillie0 Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 pm

    limb wrote:
    Stealthflanker wrote:
    Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
    https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

    Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

    Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

    They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

    It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

    Because the knowledge and ability to build additional ones has been lost to the ages... dunno

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    Odin of Ossetia
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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Wed May 04, 2022 9:16 pm

    Isos wrote:
    VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

    That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.


    That appears way too realistic to be that.


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    Post  limb Wed May 04, 2022 9:17 pm

    0nillie0 wrote:
    limb wrote:
    Stealthflanker wrote:
    Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
    https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

    Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

    Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

    They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

    It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

    Because the knowledge and ability to build additional ones has been lost to the ages... dunno

    Nope, the tuvan firefighter just doesn't seem it necessary to have more than 20 for all these years. After all, T-72B3s are all that's needed.

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    Post  diabetus Wed May 04, 2022 9:29 pm

    limb wrote:
    Stealthflanker wrote:
    Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
    https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

    Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

    Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

    They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

    It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

    Name something that can't be destroyed in war.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Wed May 04, 2022 9:37 pm

    Odin of Ossetia wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

    That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.


    That appears way too realistic to be that.



    So you think the guy which is a soldier and has fought for 60 days now put it the wrong way while looking at it and slowly releasing it and the guy who filmed that which is also probably a soldier didn't notive ?

    Clearly a fake.

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Wed May 04, 2022 9:39 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Odin of Ossetia wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

    That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.


    That appears way too realistic to be that.



    So you think the guy which is a soldier and has fought for 60 days now put it the wrong way while looking at it and slowly releasing it and the guy who filmed that which is also probably a soldier didn't notive ?

    Clearly a fake.



    How do you know for how long he had fought?

    He clearly looks like a novice, in fact I already mentioned this above.



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    Post  ucmvulcan Wed May 04, 2022 9:41 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Odin of Ossetia wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

    That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.


    That appears way too realistic to be that.



    So you think the guy which is a soldier and has fought for 60 days now put it the wrong way while looking at it and slowly releasing it and the guy who filmed that which is also probably a soldier didn't notive ?

    Clearly a fake.

    Its either a fake or possibly he was drunk or on some drug. Otherwise, its very difficult to believe that he loaded the mortar backwards.

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    franco
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    Post  franco Wed May 04, 2022 9:42 pm

    limb wrote:
    They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

    It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

    They received 65 last year so obviously you are a graduate of the American school system. Embarassed They truly are exceptional Rolling Eyes

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    Post  Isos Wed May 04, 2022 9:42 pm

    diabetus wrote:
    limb wrote:
    Stealthflanker wrote:
    Arrow wrote:The first confirmed loss of the T-90M?
    https://t.me/milinfolive/82670

    Yeah. that RWS is an indication.

    Sad, what killed it tho i wonder.

    They only had 20 T-90Ms. 1 down, only 19 more left.

    It's turret points to the back, do it was probably ambushed because Russian soldiers don't know how to protect their AFVs and suck at recon. If it was destroyed by artillery, Russian counter battery fire is ineffective.

    Name something that can't be destroyed in war.

    Stupidity.

    More seriously this war as well as the other modern ones show how vehicles are easy to destroy. Making them expensive and state of art is useless. Even with APS they will be easy targets.

    Another surprising thing is that laser guided mkssiles are mostly used yet the tank's laser warning sensor never spot them. There was no recorded case of smoke grenade being employed by tanks. Neither russians nor nato tanks.

    The war also showed how man portable weapons and soldiers are still the best tool out there.

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Wed May 04, 2022 9:51 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    Odin of Ossetia wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    VARGR198 wrote:[quote="owais.usmani

    How someone doesn't know the right way to put a mortar shell in mystifies me.

    That seems to be a fake or a comedy sketch.


    That appears way too realistic to be that.



    So you think the guy which is a soldier and has fought for 60 days now put it the wrong way while looking at it and slowly releasing it and the guy who filmed that which is also probably a soldier didn't notive ?

    Clearly a fake.

    Its either a fake or possibly he was drunk or on some drug.  Otherwise, its very difficult to believe that he loaded the mortar backwards.



    He is smoking something, probably a cigarette, but he does not appear to be intoxicated.



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    Post  mnztr Wed May 04, 2022 9:55 pm

    I am hoping these forward and backward movements on the front are good tactics by the Russians, it can be effectively used to set up kill boxes where they see a counter attack forming and lure the enemy into these areas and pound them. That said, I have been unimpressed by the use of airpower in this campaign. Something seem not to be working well with the lack of volume of sorties. they seem to be using about 5% of their air power to be honest.

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    Post  ult Wed May 04, 2022 9:59 pm

    Graphic gopro video from Russian Spetsnaz somewhere around Izyum. Last dead ukr has "I love bayraktar" socks.

    NSFW:
    https://t.me/RVvoenkor/10826

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