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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #13

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    Post  mnztr Tue Apr 26, 2022 6:27 am

    Is anyone else puzzled why it took so long for Russia to act to take out the rail network in Ukraine? Its something you can take out, and keep easily fixable for the future. But allowing this aid in to kill Russian boys is negligence IMHO. All incoming lines from the west need to be blown. Sections of highway should also be hit with buker busters so they are taken out for a few weeks, and any attempts to fix them attacked. Each truck if aid could me 5-10 dead russians or worse. WTF is Modova sending oil in? Shut of their power if they don't agree to stop.

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    Post  par far Tue Apr 26, 2022 6:27 am

    "The Moskva Riddle"

    "Get ready: something lethally “asymmetrical” may be about to pop up

    By Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and widely cross-posted

    Neither NATO nor Russia is telling us what really happened with the Moskva, the legendary admiral ship of the Black Sea fleet.

    NATO because in theory, they know. Moscow, for its part, made it clear they are not saying anything until they can be sure what happened.

    One thing is certain. If the Russian Ministry of Defense finds out that NATO did it, they will let loose all the dogs from Hell on NATO, as in “asymmetrical, lethal and fast”.

    On Moskva’s location: it was positioned near one of 3 drilling rigs, used for monitoring a whole sector of the Black Sea with hydrophones and NEVA-BS radar, the most westward one, BK-2 Odessa, approximately 66 km northeast from Snake Island. The whole thing was integrated in the regional monitoring systems. As in everything, literally, was monitored: ships, low flying targets, smaller echoes, even the bobbing head of an unsuspecting swimmer.

    So there was a quite slim chance that anything – not to mention subsonic Neptune missiles and Bayraktar drones – could have slipped through this aerial net.

    So what could have possibly happened?

    It could have been some kind of underwater drone, released either from some sneaky sub, or by a SBS team, coming from the western coast, with a stopover at Snake Island. Then that drone somehow managed to drill itself through the Moskva’s hull from below – and exploded its payload inside.

    What follows comes from a top source in Brussels: serious, trustworthy, proven record spanning nearly two decades. Yet he may be just spreading disinformation. Or bragging. Or that may be rock solid intel.

    Before we start, we should point out it’s hard to believe the Neptune/Bayraktar fairytale angle. After all, as we’ve seen, the Russian fleet had established a multidimensional surveillance/defense layer in the direction of Odessa.

    The Moskva was near Odessa, closer to Romania. A year ago, the source maintains, a new phased array locator was installed on it: the illumination range is 500 km. According to the standard Ukrainian narrative, first the Moskva was hit by a drone, and the locators and antennas were smashed. The Moskva was half blind.

    Then – according to the Ukrainian narrative – they launched two Neptune cruise missiles from the shore. Guidance was carried out by NATO’s Orion, which was hanging over Romania. The missiles zoomed in on the ship with the homing heads turned off, so that the radiation beam would not be detected.

    So we have guidance by NATO’s Orion, transmitting the exact coordinates, leading to two hits, and subsequent detonation of ammunition (that’s the part acknowledged by the Russian Ministry of Defense).

    A strategic hit

    The Moskva was on combat duty 100-120 km away from Odessa – controlling the airspace within a radius of 250-300 km. So in fact it was ensuring the overlap of the southern half of Moldova, the space from Izmail to Odessa and part of Romania (including the port of Constanta).

    Its positioning could not be more strategic. Moskva was interfering with NATO’s covert transfer of military aircraft (helicopters and fighter jets) from Romania to Ukraine. It was being watched 24/7. NATO air reconnaissance was totally on it.

    As the Moskva “killer”, NATO may have not chosen the Neptune, as spread by Ukrainian propaganda; the source points to the fifth-generation NSM PKR (Naval Strike Missile, with a range of 185 km, developed by Norway and the Americans.)

    He describes the NSM as “able to reach the target along a programmed route thanks to the GPS-adjusted INS, independently find the target by flying up to it at an altitude of 3-5 meters. When reaching the target, the NSM maneuvers and deploys electronic interference. A highly sensitive thermal imager is used as a homing system, which independently determines the most vulnerable places of the target ship.”

    As a direct consequence of hitting the Moskva, NATO managed to reopen an air corridor for the transfer of aircraft to the airfields of Chernivtsi, Transcarpathian and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.

    In parallel, after the destruction of the Moskva, the Black Sea Fleet, according to the source, “no longer seems to have a ship equipped with a long-range anti-aircraft missile system”. Of course a three-band radar Sky-M system remains in play in Crimea, capable of tracking all air targets at a range of up to 600 km. One wonders whether this is enough for all Russian purposes.

    So what do we really have here? Fantasy or reality? There was only one way to know.

    I ran the info past the inestimable Andrei Martyanov, who knew the Moskva “as Slava in 1981 when she was afloat in the Northern Bay of Sevastopol and my class which was at first summer practice on board of old cruiser Dzerzhinsky was given an extensive introduction to her. So, she was an old lady and it is too bad that she had to finish her long life this way and at this time.”

    Martyanov, once again, was the consummate professional, stressing no one, at this stage, really knows what happened. But he made some crucial points: “Per NSM (if we accept this version), even with its Low Observability and GPS guidance under normal (that is sea up to state 5-6) and normal radio-permeability, even the Moskva’s old frigate radar would have seen those missiles in distances of tens of kilometers, somewhere between 15-20 for sure. NSM, as any NATO anti-shipping missile, are subsonic, with their velocity roughly 300 meters per second. That leaves, even in a 15 kilometer range, 45 seconds to detect track and develop a firing solution for whatever ‘on duty’ AD complex. More than enough reaction time.”

    Martyanov also stresses, “it is impossible to hide the external impact of the anti-shipping missile – one will immediately know what hit the ship. Moreover, to hit and sink such a target as the Moskva one has to launch a salvo and not only two missiles, likely 3-4 at least. In this case, Russia would know who attacked Moskva. Does NATO know? I am positive this event has NATO written all over it, if it is not an internal sabotage which absolutely cannot be excluded at this stage. I am sure if Nebo was operational it would have seen the salvo.”

    Which brings us to the inevitable clincher: “If NATO was involved, I am sure we will see some retaliation, after all, as I am on record all the time, US bases in Middle East and elsewhere are nothing more than fat prestigious targets.”

    So get ready: something lethally “asymmetrical” may be about to pop up"


    https://thesaker.is/the-moskva-riddle/

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    Post  Regular Tue Apr 26, 2022 6:43 am

    mnztr wrote:Is anyone else puzzled why it took so long for Russia to act to take out the rail network in Ukraine? Its something you can take out, and keep easily fixable for the future.

    Phase 1 was a mistake, no need to overthink it at this point. Russians were reluctant to hit fuel storages no long ago as well. This is what happens when you put political goals before military goals. Now it seems the military is in charge of this show (both tempo and targets have changed drastically)

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    Post  owais.usmani Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:12 am

    Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Another cruise missile volley incoming. Third run in 24 hours, think that's a first.


    I was thinking, Russia must also has in its stock piles in hundreds, if not thousands, of the old Kh-55 cruise missiles manufactured in the 80s and early 90s. Are they also using them? Their range is low compared to the newer KH-101 but certainly can reach all of Ukraine. This should be really cheap way to take out enemy infrastructure compared to using the more expensive Kalibr and Kh-101s.

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    Post  Big_Gazza Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:34 am

    Another possible scenario for the loss of Moskva - the "ammo detonation" could have been due to an accident in the S-300F system.  A warhead exploded (misfire during launch?) leading to rupture of adjacent missiles and the spreading of burning solid rocket fuel around the equipment room that housed the rotating magazines. The fire spread, more missiles cooked off, etc

    This scenario would be consistent with the observed damage - clear signs of fire throughout the center-aft of the ship including scorch marks around the hatches along the S-300F area.

    We'll find out eventually...  but its difficult not to indulge in conjecture dunno

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    Post  jhelb Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:10 am

    Big_Gazza wrote:Another possible scenario for the loss of Moskva - the "ammo detonation" could have been due to an accident in the S-300F system.  A warhead exploded (misfire during launch?) leading to rupture of adjacent missiles and the spreading of burning solid rocket fuel around the equipment room that housed the rotating magazines. The fire spread, more missiles cooked off, etc

    This scenario would be consistent with the observed damage - clear signs of fire throughout the center-aft of the ship including scorch marks around the hatches along the S-300F area.

    We'll find out eventually...  but its difficult not to indulge in conjecture dunno
    Ukro nazi garbage, meant for idiotic Western audience. How will Orion provide guidance to Neptune missiles?

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:25 am

    jhelb wrote:
    Big_Gazza wrote:Another possible scenario for the loss of Moskva - the "ammo detonation" could have been due to an accident in the S-300F system.  A warhead exploded (misfire during launch?) leading to rupture of adjacent missiles and the spreading of burning solid rocket fuel around the equipment room that housed the rotating magazines. The fire spread, more missiles cooked off, etc

    This scenario would be consistent with the observed damage - clear signs of fire throughout the center-aft of the ship including scorch marks around the hatches along the S-300F area.

    We'll find out eventually...  but its difficult not to indulge in conjecture dunno
    Ukro nazi garbage, meant for idiotic Western audience. How will Orion provide guidance to Neptune missiles?

    Martians.
    I am telling you, it was all Martians.

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    Post  mnztr Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:35 am

    jhelb wrote:
    Big_Gazza wrote:Another possible scenario for the loss of Moskva - the "ammo detonation" could have been due to an accident in the S-300F system.  A warhead exploded (misfire during launch?) leading to rupture of adjacent missiles and the spreading of burning solid rocket fuel around the equipment room that housed the rotating magazines. The fire spread, more missiles cooked off, etc

    This scenario would be consistent with the observed damage - clear signs of fire throughout the center-aft of the ship including scorch marks around the hatches along the S-300F area.

    We'll find out eventually...  but its difficult not to indulge in conjecture dunno
    Ukro nazi garbage, meant for idiotic Western audience. How will Orion provide guidance to Neptune missiles?

    transmit coordiantes in real time?
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    Post  Mir Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:01 am

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russia says nuclear war ‘unacceptable,’ but danger is real

    Moscow believes there are no winners in a nuclear war, but the danger of it is real, says FM Sergey Lavrov

    It is dangerously close, here there cannot be a timid attempt to detonate 1 or 2

    It must be a full tactical reprisal, let the west climb the escalation ladder

    F***, it's gonna happen isn't it? We're going to stumble into thermonuclear apocalypse aren't we?

    I doubt it very much as no one can afford the devastating consequences. Russia has no definite plans to invade Europe and NATO can only dream of declaring war against Russia. Only armchair generals and PC warriors would advocate a nuclear exchange.

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:06 am

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russia says nuclear war ‘unacceptable,’ but danger is real

    Moscow believes there are no winners in a nuclear war, but the danger of it is real, says FM Sergey Lavrov

    It is dangerously close, here there cannot be a timid attempt to detonate 1 or 2

    It must be a full tactical reprisal, let the west climb the escalation ladder

    F***, it's gonna happen isn't it? We're going to stumble into thermonuclear apocalypse aren't we?

    Bullshit war leads to a bullshit resolution

    What can ya do
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    Post  Big_Gazza Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:19 am

    jhelb wrote:
    Big_Gazza wrote:Another possible scenario for the loss of Moskva - the "ammo detonation" could have been due to an accident in the S-300F system.  A warhead exploded (misfire during launch?) leading to rupture of adjacent missiles and the spreading of burning solid rocket fuel around the equipment room that housed the rotating magazines. The fire spread, more missiles cooked off, etc

    This scenario would be consistent with the observed damage - clear signs of fire throughout the center-aft of the ship including scorch marks around the hatches along the S-300F area.

    We'll find out eventually...  but its difficult not to indulge in conjecture dunno
    Ukro nazi garbage, meant for idiotic Western audience. How will Orion provide guidance to Neptune missiles?

    You may have noticed that I didn't comment at all on the fanciful crappola of NATO guidance to Neptune missiles?  

    This possible scenario revolves around a botched S-300F launch, and its not especially relevent as to why a missile was fired.    Could have been shooting down a TB-2 that came too close (IIRC one of the 11356s used a Shtil SAM to take down a drone just a few days before).  Fanciful?  Maybe, but not that long ago one of the 1135s had a misfire of a Rastrub ASW missile during a fleet display day where the missile broke up as soon as it left the launch tube.  Again, another very old ship (laid down 1979). Now imagine if the missle had exploded in the tube? Or if instead of a deck mounted launcher the Rastrubs were launched from within the hull? Could have been a repeat of the Pr.61 Otvazhny, lost after an explosion caused by a SAM launch failure.

    FWIW I don't think Moskva was taken down by Ukropi action.  I think it was an accident, and the navy is quiet about it as they need to determine the exact cause so they can ensure that neither of the Moskvas sister ships are at risk, or even the 1144 Orlans which have almost identical magazine arrangements on their S-300F system.

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:41 am

    About the slow tempo:

    🇷🇺 In general, the tactics in the Izyum direction have not changed. Units move from locality to locality, leaving units to control key points.

    The First Tank Army continues its steady advance westward from Izyum on both sides of the Seversky Donets River. The Factories and the Chervon Miner were taken, the Great Kamyshevakha, which is a major node of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is visible through binoculars.

    The heroic 20th army, having taken Sukhoi Kamenka and Suligovka, attacks the enemy in the direction of the village of Dolgenkoe and Kurulki, cutting off supply routes to the AFU units throughout the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

    Units of the 41st army reached the line of the Oskol River.

    The low pace of progress, instead of moving in long columns at the beginning of the war, allowed to reduce losses in personnel to a minimum, while simultaneously inflicting huge damage to the enemy.

    For example: the 39th brigade, which stormed Suligovka, has a couple of dozen dead and several dozen wounded during the entire fighting, while only the 95th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 100 people killed in battles with them, while being in a well-prepared defense. And in addition to the 95 brigade, parts of the 93 mechanized and 25 airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were also defeated there.

    As many have rightly noted, Ukraine stopped showing Russian prisoners and the reason for this is simple, they simply do not exist. But fresh batches of captured horsemen are sent to Russia every day.

    We have problems, the war forced us to look at many things and evaluate them differently, but what I can say for sure is that now we see a completely different army than on February 24, 2022. And this can best be described in the words of A.S. Pushkin:

    But in the temptations of a long punishment, Enduring the blows of fate, Russia has become stronger. So the heavy mlat, crushing glass, forges bulat.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:12 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Arrow Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:46 am

    So it looks like the second phase of the operation is not going to be some big, fast-paced offensive? It will be a slow acquisition of land, minimizing your own losses.

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    Post  Hinex1988 Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:47 am

    🇷🇺🇺🇦Briefing by the Russian Defence Ministry

    ▫The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue a special military operation in Ukraine.

    💥During the night, high-precision air-based missiles of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit 4 military facilities of Ukraine. Including 2 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration of the enemy, as well as 2 ammunition depots near  Kurulka and Novaya Dmitrovka of the Kharkov region.

    ✈💥Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 87 military assets of Ukraine. Among them: 79 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

    ▫About 500 enemy personnel, 59 armored vehicles, artillery mounts and cars were destroyed, as well as more than 60 fighters of the nationalist formation Donbass near Rubtsy of the Donetsk People's Republic.

    ▫In addition, 2 launchers of Buk-M1 and Osa AKM anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed near Veseloe and Prishib, as well as 2 ammunition depots near Novoselovka and Slavyansk.

    💥Missile troops and artillery performed 1299 firing tasks during the day.

    ▫37 command posts, 114 strong points of Ukrainian troops, 983 areas of concentration of manpower and military equipment, 139 positions of Ukrainian artillery and 21 ammunition depots were hit.

    ▫Also, 2 Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1 Tochka-U tactical missile launcher and an electronic warfare station were destroyed near Barvenkovo.

    💥Russian air defence means shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Novy Mir, Ocheretino Mirnoye, Donetsk, Novolyubovka, Balakleya, Kozacha Lopan.

    ▫In addition, 2 Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles were shot down by the Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system in the air over Tokmak, Zaporozhye region and Svatovo, Kharkov region.

    📊In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 141 aircraft, 110 helicopters, 583 unmanned aerial vehicles, 269 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,576 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 287 multiple rocket launchers, 1,111 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,392 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:31 am

    I wonder if these were being used to aid Russia and Ukraine has now taken them out. If so then Ukraine has declared war on Transnistria.

    Updates

    1) 2 Grigoriopol radio transmitters destroyed as result of explosions near Mayak village in Transnistria.

    2) Germany to authorise tank deliveries to Ukraine: government sources

    3) Yesterday, Russian troops using a Su-24 aircraft, tanks, GRAD MLRS, howitzers, 120 mm mortars and large-caliber machine guns attacked following directions: Novodanylivka, Kamyanske, Pavlivka, Orikhiv, Novoandriyivka, Huliaipole, Charivne, Huliaipilske, Vremivka, Novosilka, Poltavka, Volne Pole, Zaliznychne, Uspenivka, Belogorye.

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    Post  Werewolf Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:10 am

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russia says nuclear war ‘unacceptable,’ but danger is real

    Moscow believes there are no winners in a nuclear war, but the danger of it is real, says FM Sergey Lavrov

    It is dangerously close, here there cannot be a timid attempt to detonate 1 or 2

    It must be a full tactical reprisal, let the west climb the escalation ladder

    F***, it's gonna happen isn't it? We're going to stumble into thermonuclear apocalypse aren't we?

    We will see with 99% certainty an escalation and de-escalation with thermonuclear weapons.

    Probably Cuba Crisis 2.0 to get US nukes out of europe.

    Some speculate that Lvov oblast will be thrown to the dogs and handed over to Poland IF they get out of NATO peacefully, if not well, some polish guys will be roasted. The US will and tries through the Ukraine to get Poland vs Russia involved.

    This summer will be very hot!

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    Post  Arrow Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:18 am

    2 Grigoriopol radio transmitters destroyed as result of explosions near Mayak village in Transnistria. wrote:

    Ukrainian forces may try to enter the Transnistria.

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    Post  ahmedfire Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:34 am

    Wink
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #13 - Page 39 16507510

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    Post  ahmedfire Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:36 am


    This is a famous turkish journalist .

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:41 am

    Werewolf wrote:
    We will see with 99% certainty an escalation and de-escalation with thermonuclear weapons.
    Probably Cuba Crisis 2.0 to get US nukes out of europe.
    Some speculate that Lvov oblast will be thrown to the dogs and handed over to Poland IF they get out of NATO peacefully, if not well, some polish guys will be roasted. The US will and tries through the Ukraine to get Poland vs Russia involved.
    This summer will be very hot!

    And how in detail would that change situation, considering that both France and th UK has own nukes?
    Sometimes the expectations of your Russian audience amaze me, even considering that I am pro-Russian in general.
    The same applies to the demand for NATO to get back into pre-1999 borders.
    It is simply not wise.
    Russia was unable to stop that process back then, it was the sole decision of sovereign countries, and that is the end of the story.
    How far with revisionism are we going?
    OK, let's consider that this is a negotiation stand, and both sides can move in both directions - I agree.
    But at the moment, and considering the effect of the ongoing operation, it will be Russia in heavy advantage over NATO.
    With Crimea, Russia controls the whole Black Sea, and reaches deep into both Romania and Bulgaria.
    As soon as they will take Odessa - and that is a matter of time rather than a decision in my opinion - they will landlock the remains of Ukr, granting it's economic and social misery. Russian security playground will be the remains of Ukraine, weak NATO countries and Moldova. With Belarus effectively outflanking&blocking any attempts of land operation. Kaliningrad enclave is there, and can be reached in 2 days if needed with a land corridor.
    It is Russia that operates the weapon capable to attack any target in Europe without leaving its own territory, airspace or sea.
    The whole Europe air defense is weaker than the Ukrainian one. Systems are incapable to deal with both hypersonic and cruise weapons.
    The coverage against UAVs, ballistic and cruise missiles, and tube artillery is nonexisting.
    Sure that it is a very good position to start negotiate, but sometimes one can push too hard.
    It is not that Europe can't arm itself - we can. Quite easily, effectively, and much better than Muricans.
    Europeans didn't feel the need for that.
    It should be the Russian interest to insure them in that.
    Same as at the moment, it is getting clear that Ukros are trying to heat up Transdnistria and Moldova issues, and the Russian diplomacy should be the first in line towards Moldova, granting its security and pointing the finger at "outrageous Ukrainian provocation against the peace process".
    Situation is calming down here, the Europeans started to be bored by Ukrainian matters.
    And pissed of because of the Ukrainian refugees.
    That is getting clear.
    It is a really good time for Moscow to stop shaking the saber, and present a nice face of mutual interests.
    Sure the EU politicians will ignore that, but there are elections around.
    They won't be able to ignore that forever.

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    Post  franco Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:48 am

    The return of the Cossacks

    Cossack volunteer units played an important role in the war in 2014, between the heroic and the disappointing, and this time they have again answered the call to arms.

    Cossack battalions participating in a special operation in Ukraine have been fighting for Donbass on the front line for a month

    To date, there are two Cossack regiments and several battalions in the area of the special operation. As part of various military formations, about 4 thousand Cossacks from all Cossack societies and organizations in Russia are fighting together with soldiers of the Russian army.

    The Kuban Cossacks of the Ataman Platov regiment, Ataman Chepegi and the 1st Crimean. The Cossacks of the Don and Tavrida divisions went to the battlefield. In the near future, the number of Cossacks participating in the special operation will increase to 5.5 thousand, and three more Cossack detachments will join the battles for the Donbass. At the beginning of April, more than 1,400 Cossacks took part in the fighting.

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:05 pm

    10 tanks in 15 minutes: how the Logistics of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation works during the Special Operation in Ukraine.

    https://t.me/chervonec_001/9405

    Cool

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:15 pm

    From Strelkov

    His predictions from before the war



    14 days before the operation:
    - The US is not scared of Russia taking Mariupol, Avdeevka, Popasnaya, even Kharkov. To them the main thing is to prevent a quick Russian victory. Mobilization should be declared before the war. Doing it afterwards will prove too late, it takes weeks at a minimum to get the process going. This isn't WW1, war and mobilization is prepared for in advance these days.

    5 days before the operation:
    - If within a week Russian forces will be standing at the Romanian and Polish borders, no-one will jump into the war. But if within 2 weeks there are some positional battles around some Avdeevka, then there will be a different situation entirely. Everyone will consider Russia as a paper tiger, and anything can happen. If there are local defeats, god forbid, then it's impossible even to come up with a prognosis. Pridnestrovie will be crushed, there can be a blockade of Kaliningrad, Erdogan will jump from neutrality to open hostility.

    - The war has to be won very quickly in order to prevent any internal crisis in Russia and treachery within the Russian elite. The US doesn't care who wins, it's only important that the war is waged as long as possible, to weaken Russia. The economy will face big problems, and a long war will lead to casualties among many professional troops. The attack on the Ukraine has to be deep and lead to a political-military result.

    2 months before the operation:
    - The West via a local collaborator (the Ukrainian army) can set-up a local war for Russia, that they calculate Russia will not be able to win quickly. This could lead to a fall in the Russian economy and the rise of internal dissent in Russia, as there is no Crimean consensus in this case. In this case a coup could take place from among Putin's circle; Gref, Miller and others who were never satisfied with the Crimea annexation and only wanted to rejoin with the West. In the case of the war being prolonged, the 'capitulation wing' can be strengthened considerably.


    My thoughts
    + The opinions on mobilization, the long war, the Europeans, Turks and others jumping in may yet turn out to be true. Although it seems that Russia has managed to so far avoid some of the bigger steps such a blockade of Kaliningrad or the introduction of NATO armies officially. But there is still plenty of time for all that, especially as the Russian military advances further. At the very least, it seems that Pridnestrovie is now heating up and the war may expand.

    + So far all the attempts at crashing the Russian economy or provoking a coup, revolution have failed, and the pro-West circle thrown out of all influence. Putin centralized power successfully and forced the security council to back his decision publicly. Naibullina prevented any sort of bank run, hyperinflation or major crisis in the Russian economy. Medinsky's efforts at negotiation have proved their worthlessness publicly and shown that Kiev is not interested in any sort of agreement. While the West itself has declared near total war on all things Russian and demonstrated to Russian society that there is no road back one way or the other.

    + However unemployment is rising in Russia and the economic sanctions have done damage. There are many urgent challenges. Putin being challenged can probably be excluded, but there may be attempts by the West to promote regional seperatism in Russia and other nasty surprises. The psychological Dolittle raids will continue like the one against Bryansk 2 days ago, and various other attempts at demoralization.

    + The Russian military has sustained casualties, yet it's a paper tiger only in the propaganda battle. Any serious military analyst will note its huge firepower superiority and ability to very quickly adapt to unexpected enemy tactics and weapon systems, as well as its ability to conduct precision attacks with excellent intelligence on enemy hideouts, supplies and formations. But the propaganda has needlessly injected enthusiasm into too many politicians and nationalists in Eastern Europe to try and take the battle to it, which will ultimately just lead to an expansion of the war. As for the casaulties among the professional servicemen - the rest are gaining plenty of experience, while new cadres and volunteers can replace the dead and injured. The officer corps will also be very rapidly naturally selected, with incompetent or mediocre commanders being replaced by those who have demonstrated the right qualities. Thus the military is only becoming more battle-hardened and improving - but it's nevertheless important to note that a country's ability to wage a war starts decreasing from day 1. Any forms of mobilization will bring in more troops, but mobilization is not limitless. War production and resources are not limitless. Compare to a country at peacetime, whose population keeps growing and economy continues to develop - its entrance into a war a year later will mean a green army and no mobilization; but it will then mobilize and become battle-hardened, only with 1 extra year of peace beforehand in comparison to a country that has already had 1 year of war with casualties and economic losses from it.

    + The Russian political leadership wanted a quick victory, but saw that neither it nor negotiations were possible. However it seems comfortable with the idea of a longer war, the main thing is to minimize military casualties. Without having to enact mobilization. Plan B. This flies into the face of all Western calculations; about Russia choosing a fast tempo and trying to win the war as quickly as possible. Although manpower and resources are always limited - Russia has plenty of all sorts of resources and industries, and seems to be confident that it can outlast at least Europe, banking on their economies being ruined instead and the rise of internal dissent there, due to still being at peace. The main thing is to prevent the entrance of these countries into the war and allow their societies to be consolidated.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:29 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:19 pm

    President of Moldova convenes a meeting of the Security Council due to incidents in Transnistria

    🔹The attack on the PMR Ministry of State Security building in Tiraspol.
    🔹Damage from an antenna explosion at the "Mayak" radio center in the Grigoryevsky district.
    🔹The bombing of the Tiraspol military airfield.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 26, 2022 12:58 pm

    ALAMO wrote:
    Werewolf wrote:
    We will see with 99% certainty an escalation and de-escalation with thermonuclear weapons.
    Probably Cuba Crisis 2.0 to get US nukes out of europe.
    Some speculate that Lvov oblast will be thrown to the dogs and handed over to Poland IF they get out of NATO peacefully, if not well, some polish guys will be roasted. The US will and tries through the Ukraine to get Poland vs Russia involved.
    This summer will be very hot!

    And how in detail would that change situation, considering that both France and th UK has own nukes?
    Sometimes the expectations of your Russian audience amaze me, even considering that I am pro-Russian in general.
    The same applies to the demand for NATO to get back into pre-1999 borders.
    It is simply not wise.
    Russia was unable to stop that process back then, it was the sole decision of sovereign countries, and that is the end of the story.
    How far with revisionism are we going?
    OK, let's consider that this is a negotiation stand, and both sides can move in both directions - I agree.
    But at the moment, and considering the effect of the ongoing operation, it will be Russia in heavy advantage over NATO.
    With Crimea, Russia controls the whole Black Sea, and reaches deep into both Romania and Bulgaria.
    As soon as they will take Odessa - and that is a matter of time rather than a decision in my opinion - they will landlock the remains of Ukr, granting it's economic and social misery. Russian security playground will be the remains of Ukraine, weak NATO countries and Moldova. With Belarus effectively outflanking&blocking any attempts of land operation. Kaliningrad enclave is there, and can be reached in 2 days if needed with a land corridor.
    It is Russia that operates the weapon capable to attack any target in Europe without leaving its own territory, airspace or sea.
    The whole Europe air defense is weaker than the Ukrainian one. Systems are incapable to deal with both hypersonic and cruise weapons.
    The coverage against UAVs, ballistic and cruise missiles, and tube artillery is nonexisting.
    Sure that it is a very good position to start negotiate, but sometimes one can push too hard.
    It is not that Europe can't arm itself - we can. Quite easily, effectively, and much better than Muricans.
    Europeans didn't feel the need for that.
    It should be the Russian interest to insure them in that.
    Same as at the moment, it is getting clear that Ukros are trying to heat up Transdnistria and Moldova issues, and the Russian diplomacy should be the first in line towards Moldova, granting its security and pointing the finger at "outrageous Ukrainian provocation against the peace process".
    Situation is calming down here, the Europeans started to be bored by Ukrainian matters.
    And pissed of because of the Ukrainian refugees.
    That is getting clear.
    It is a really good time for Moscow to stop shaking the saber, and present a nice face of mutual interests.
    Sure the EU politicians will ignore that, but there are elections around.
    They won't be able to ignore that forever.

    What this conflict has proved, and China has wisened up to this as well now - is that it's not a matter of just the Americans. It is the Europeans themselves, that want and wanted to submit Russia.

    Thus I'm not sure there is any scope for peace branches. They've been offered for the last 20 years, continuously - and to what result?

    For every Macron globalist, at most you'll get a Le Pen - who only differs from the globalist in terms of tactics. But they would all be opposed to some sort of either USSR, or a Russia-Chinese alliance, or a multipolar world order without themselves at the top. They would all be on board with the Americans against that.

    The Moldovan issue has already been decided. This is barely any more a sovereign state than the Ukraine now. It declared neutrality at the start of the conflict, but not has banned St. George's ribbons and is allowing arms supplies and fuel from NATO through its territory to the Odessa region. The Ukrainian provocations against Pridnestrovie I'm sure, are in full agreement with it. Much as the blockade by Moldova and the Ukraine instituted on 1st January was.
    Yes Russia can try to use such language about the peace process and so on - but again it's useless. And might only send another message of weakness. Instead Russia is saying 'don't go there or else', and at this stage this is the right approach. What Russia should also do is address the Moldovan people directly, and explain to them what is going on and how Sandu attempts to drag them into a war, that's the only thing I'd change.

    As for Europe arming up - this is again only a question of time. No elections shmelections will change it. The Ukraine issue has been temporarily forgotten about, since Russia is still faffing around somewhere in some Avdeevka and Popasnaya. As soon as Russia starts making more rapid progress again (much as the Allies ground down the German army in France for a few months before making rapid advances), then the Russia issue will be back on the table full burn.
    Already we have news about Poland expanding its army by more than 50%. They're actively forming some peacekeeping legion made up of Bandera Ukrainians and Polish nationalists who will enter Western Ukraine when the time is right.

    Where I would agree with you is above all the need to prevent any active hostilities with any other European states and give any excuse for any of these regimes to consolidate their populations behind a war - that no-one needs. If the Romanians enter Moldova, this can't be avoided, but it can be avoided still with Poland.
    But have no illusions about your own government or any other in Europe. They will arm up, they will go full-burn on all anti-Russian hatred, when the time is right. They are sovereign states, but their elites are what they are.

    And NATO is a mutual defense treaty between this European political class. There should not only be attempts to move its borders back (and not just the infrastructure, which the ultimatum only mentioned), but to shake up the pan-European neo-liberal regimes in Greece and Italy too. Because that's what Russia is facing - regime change attempts in CSTO countries, attacks on its territory with NATO-supplied drones from the Ukraine, and so on. The EU, US have shot themselves in the foot with their sanctions and blackmail attempts against other nations in the world. Long may they continue to do so.
    There is no 'neutral Europe' here. It's simply the West versus the Russo-Chinese bloc.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Apr 26, 2022 1:14 pm; edited 6 times in total

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