Obviously the biggest obstacle to all this is the population. What do they want? I think the best way to play this, is referendum in each oblast on independence. From that the oblast can then decide if it wants to remain independent, form a federation with Novorussia, or the United federation of orcs. People like the idea of independence and having more control. This would weaken zelenskys control and could drastically reduce Ukraine in size. Either way the map shown is pretty certain. And I think after this war, the newly independent regions will happily accept neutrality they will have had enough of war and forced conscription and neo Nazi's holding a gun to their head. Peace and stability is what they want. And for many it's a way to get out of the conflict and not take a side.
I think realistically the map shown will be Novorussia. The far west of the country will be orc land but still be forced to remain neutral, and by that time NATO will no longer be interested in its failed pet project. While the remaining regions Kiev, and central will for a federation that will remain totally neutral not taking any side and will just want to get on with life, trading with both Russia and EU. And although we all want a complete overthrow it's unlikely to happen but Russia will have achieved various levels of buffer zones, gained pro Russian areas including Transnistria and Gagauzia. Land locked Ukraine. Made it extremely weak, left NATO with another fail project, with a bloody nose. EU economy in tatters, and USA and UK as countries u no longer want to lead you down the garden path to another project.
... and that is something that armchair generals don't get, lacking historical memory, to begin with.
Soviet suppression of Ukro nationalist-driven resistance lasted for 20 years and the price was the lives of about 100k Soviet soldiers.
It ended up well into 50s.
And that was only a follow-up of the very similar resistance Poland faced there earlier, including the filtration camps for Ukro nationalists that filtred about 100k of them, leaving more than 20k dead.
So in reality, they have struggled for their own Banderastan for more than 40 years back then, and 30+ years now. No matter how we consider the ideology itself, we can't deny them the determination for independence.
Who needs that?
Neither Russia nor Poland.
There is no point in the occupation of western Ukraine from the Russian perspective. Costly, with no long-term gains for real.
The whole western part of Ukr is an agricultural land mostly, without any serious industry. It will be home to maybe 15 mln population, if we consider the migration, making it an equivalent of Romania.
So in reality, any serious danger of becoming anti Russia will be gone.
Someone who is yapping about "West Germany" obviously never has been there
I have. In both WG and West Berlin.
It was an industrial hub, a vibrant and massive economy leaving anyone with a dropped jar.
It was driven by billions looted by the Nazis, that was pumped back into it in the 60s already, a population boom making it about 60 mln nation, on a constant rise well into 80s.
There is not a single point that matches the Ukro, neither now, nor when Russkies will finish with them.
Landlocking them and stripping off the whole Russian speaking regions will be an absolute victory, for a humble price.
It will be a smaller, weaker, poorer Romania, but with a huge ego.
This huge ego will be wiped very fast, while you can't make a blowjobs or clean the toilets with your ego much.