Analysis i 100% agree with, made by Boris Rozhin aka Colonel Cassad:
Evolution of the conflict
One of the key problems of Russia is that it still has not switched to the war regime, but has remained in the NVO regime, and without this transition there will be no victory in the war.
When, at the beginning of the conflict, the Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin called everything a special military operation, they automatically drove everything into a certain framework of this SVO. The conflict evolved, it became clear that there was no SVO at all, even if there was a calculation for it, but the framework remained. And most of the politicians, functionaries and even the military continue to remain within this framework, not realizing that a real war is going on, respectively, in the process of self-deception, gross mistakes are made, while not fatal, but may become fatal in the future.
Moreover, Moscow contradicts itself: on the one hand, it realizes and says it publicly that most of the Western world, one of the largest armies in Europe, and almost all the economic and military functionality of the West are acting against it, but at the same time it behaves as if there is a local military operation. This is a self-deception that can backfire if you do not change the approach and do not call a spade a spade and prepare both the Defense Ministry and the state apparatus, and citizens for this.
If at the beginning of the conflict the West was limited to a sanctions strike and the supply of light weapons and intelligence information, now Ukraine is pumping weapons on a completely different scale: to the endless supplies of various anti-tank systems, MANPADS, communication systems and other things, heavy and light equipment, artillery, anti-ship missiles have been added and perhaps soon there will be air defense and aviation (including drones).
There are no more halftones. Threats towards NATO and the West regarding the supply of weapons clearly had no effect, if at the beginning NATO denied and stated that there would be no such deliveries, now the casket is completely open, and the reaction remained in words. The West sees this very well and draws conclusions.
Moscow must first of all admit to itself that there is a war going on and part of the world is directly involved in this war against Russia, there is no NVO in Ukraine and could not be. Moscow must transfer the entire conflict into the regime of a real war and transfer the state to these rails. Officials, military functionaries and citizens should know and understand this. This is extremely important for Moscow. In half a turn, even local success will not work, it is out of the question, this train has long gone.
The main reasons that brought Russia to February 24, 2022 are, among other things, long years of half-tones, a series of mistakes and indecisiveness of diplomacy, unawareness of the inevitable, lack of strategy and constant half-turns in everything. All this led to the fact that the red lines moved towards Russia, and what seemed impossible yesterday became a reality today, and Moscow's reactions to this were more like light phantom impulses. The West saw this and continued to move the front. And, unfortunately for Moscow, it has not ended even now, within the framework of the conflict in Ukraine.
On February 24, the bridges were burned, Moscow must not only understand this, but also act accordingly. There is no way back, there is only one way, and in order to overcome it, you need to act with full force and without looking back.
(c) TOGARMA
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/42739 - zinc
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