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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #10

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:07 am

    This war will go on for 10 years

    Demilitarization can only occur by conquest,  or long war occupation

    The retreat from Kiev signals that conquest was not possible

    So an occupation by long war will carry out Demilitarization

    NATO will not enter Ukraine because it would cause a defacto balkanization

    So it will be this way for many years like Syria

    The situation will evolve yearly

    Kremlin will not kill kievan leadership,  and will not topple the regime,  nor attempt to build any kind of real state there

    Kiev will be left alone

    But attrition will plague Kiev and Russia for many years
    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:16 am

    FP; I can give you a like for some of your posts but there is no more respect for you as a person, because you are the one that has called Putin and Russian army as "fucking murderers". I don't hate you but because of those words of yours we can not be friends.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:22 am

    Podlodka77 wrote:FP; I can give you a like for some of your posts but there is no more respect for you as a person, because you are the one that has called Putin and Russian army as "fucking murderers". I don't hate you but because of those words of yours we can not be friends.

    Emotions run high. While FP says some pretty henious and ridiculous things, most people will. I think he came through when realizing Ukrainians are sacrificing their own. Maybe nieve but of course, we are all human.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:25 am

    The Ukrainians can sacrifice many more, it will be this way every week

    Bucha, kramatorsk, chemical attacks, actually Konashenkov revealed another attack is planned, but it's doesn't matter

    Ukrainian citizens are not going to magically switch sides and bring the pain of the SBU and Teraborona on themselves

    And as long as western MSM is there to cover it up , the Russian position won't even be heard

    The Ukrainians themselves have it good, they surrender, get fed, and traded back to the VSU to be put back into armed units

    Our guys cannot be put back into the army because they hand them back crippled and maimed if at all

    Ukraine has no fear of such an army , that's why they don't surrender , it will just drag on
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:32 am

    https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/53457

    Boris Johnson and Zelensky stroll through Kiev,

    The BBC writes that the defeat of Russia is one for the ages,

    Boris Johnson believes himself to be a real modern Churchill, and why not? We are not in Kiev, but he is

    At least these Johnsons and Von Der Leyens are more patriotic to their states then Peskov or Sobchaks

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:34 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/53457

    Boris Johnson and Zelensky stroll through Kiev,

    The BBC writes that the defeat of Russia is one for the ages,

    Boris Johnson believes himself to be a real modern Churchill, and why not? We are not in Kiev, but he is

    At least these Johnsons and Von Der Leyens are more patriotic to their states then Peskov or Sobchaks


    Then let them stroll in Mariupol.  Let's see how that would turn out.

    In the end, they can write what they like. They know Russia won't hit them directly. They can take pictures and talk to people and everything else. But what can't be denied is end results and when Ukraine loses more and more cities and territory east, they won't be able to hide it.

    And they will be at Kievs doorstep again. I mean they still have forces in the area just nothing much.  But once Kharkov is done, then it's time for Odessa. Then after that's gone?

    You see, they can make 5 more walks together. Maybe next time it will be in lviv...

    Thise people you mention aren't patriotic to their states. Johnson was caught with his pants down so many times that he was facing a potential vote of no confidence. The lady you mention isn't a voted individual but runs EU like her little fiefdom and is bringing the EU to its knees. That isn't patriotism. Sobchak is one of those people and Peskov is playing his roll.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:43 am

    Zelensky doesn't care about losing some villages and towns, he's keeping us without moving for 46 days now and takes more territory

    He will stage false flags and be lauded as a hero

    But yes you are correct, they cannot get into Mariupol, we might take it finally in about 3 weeks

    Peskov is playing a role? What role is that? Breaking the morale of the army by disclosing "huge losses"?

    That's some 10d chess
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:47 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Zelensky doesn't care about losing some villages and towns, he's keeping us without moving for 46 days now and takes more territory

    He will stage false flags and be lauded as a hero

    But yes you are correct, they cannot get into Mariupol, we might take it finally in about 3 weeks

    You are lying.

    They haven't taken more territory, actually, they lost more.

    He lost third/fourth biggest city and will also lose second. Kharkov is still surrounded.

    Why must you lie in order to make a point? It doesn't serve anyone any interest other than make yourself not only look ridiculous but not to be taken seriously at all.

    As well, judging by your previous remarks on this forum, you are less logical and overtly emotional. Both of which makes you less of a necessary person to speak with because it will end up as a less than honest discussion.

    So let's stick to facts please.

    I also see you edited your post. May I ask your credentials? What do you do for a living?

    Peskov cannot say what he is thinking. If he did, he would be fired. Not only one to have been. He plays a part to say one direction of what the government wants so that it can be used to decide further actions and what is the will of the people.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:53 am

    Yes let us stick to facts only

    - mariupol was going to fall in 1 day, for 3 weeks now

    - zelensky ran to poland, no he's in Kiev walking around in broad daylight

    - the Ukrainians are staging false flags and killing their own people, but who cares when it is all white washed and the brits and EU will make sure Ukrainians know the truth about "what really happened"

    So what are the facts?

    Are you going to run around in circles to explain it?
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:02 pm

    flamming_python wrote:...They couldn't have predicted Bucha...

    Bucha is the oldest trick in the book and has been in use for 30 years

    Everyone here in Serbia have predicted it and I honestly can't believe that Russian intel department is so far behind the curve

    Stuff like Bucha and especially Krematorsk are called "Markale Routine" and they followed playbook to the letter: tell people that they should go somewhere and then slaughter them for the journalists

    Only difference is that instead​ of market and mortar shells there was railway station and Tochka missile



    Russians set themselves up for Bucha the moment they pulled out and gave Ukrainians the stage for this little theater and this will be repeated in every single place that Ukrainians retake from Russia

    Don't give them anything because they will make sure you regret it


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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:06 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Yes let us stick to facts only

    - mariupol was going to fall in 1 day, for 3 weeks now

    - zelensky ran to poland, no he's in Kiev walking around in broad daylight

    - the Ukrainians are staging false flags and killing their own people, but who cares when it is all white washed and the brits and EU will make sure Ukrainians know the truth about "what really happened"

    So what are the facts?

    Are you going to run around in circles to explain it?

    Mariupal is a large city, one of the top 5 largest in Ukraine. Heavily fortified and it already fell. They are doing the clean up now. This is a fact. I am uncertain where the timeframes are coming from. I have followed this and have family in Russia to know that so far, no timelines were given by the Russians. Actually, even Lavrov pointed this out. Any kind of time being mentioned on what is to be done and by when has came entirely from western media. Which gives me indication you are not Russian but westerner that relies on western news and not facts on the ground.

    Zelensky can walk around all he wants. I know you rather the Russians assassinate him. But they will not. They will let the anger build up on him. But he will continue to walk in Kiev and near Kiev but never close to where the fighting is actually happening. When the war raged on in nearby cities, Hitler also went around talking to woman and children in Berlin.

    He can continue to kill his own people. Doesn't matter what the Brits or Americans or whatever say. It really doesn't. Regardless what they say, the results will be the same. As FP has mentioned, peoples attention is now turning towards Kiev as to why they are allowing the killing against their own people.

    These are facts and I know I am not the only one to bring it forward to you. But you are so emotional, it is clouding your judgement. You can be a lot smarter than this.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:13 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:FP; I can give you a like for some of your posts but there is no more respect for you as a person, because you are the one that has called Putin and Russian army as "fucking murderers". I don't hate you but because of those words of yours we can not be friends.

    The latest false attribution to my name

    Would you care to quote me?
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:21 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:Well, now we have Papadragon here. That Man knows everything about "mistakes" about Russian military plans and Russian leadership. It is very interesting that prophet Papadragon even knows that "Russia will stop to exist as a country"...

    They sent their grunts into Kiev without artillery or air support and told them not to defend themselves

    They got slaughtered with artillery and survivors had their balls cut off

    If that doesn't look like mistake to you then I don't know what else to say



    As for Russia existing, if they drop the ball here or pussy out halfway they will be advertising to USA and EU that Russia is up for grabs and that they don't have the guts to do what needs to be done and in that case USA and EU will DEFINITELY grab the chance to finish what they started in the 90s

    Also, Chinese are nice for now but they don't like being associated with losers, they survived the Cold War by picking the winning team hence Russia has to make sure they don't lose this

    So now it's either Polish border and Rolling Thunder or 90s the Sequel

    It's not complicated





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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:22 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:The Ukrainians can sacrifice many more, it will be this way every week

    Bucha, kramatorsk, chemical attacks, actually Konashenkov revealed another attack is planned, but it's doesn't matter

    Ukrainian citizens are not going to magically switch sides and bring the pain of the SBU and Teraborona on themselves

    And as long as western MSM is there to cover it up , the Russian position won't even be heard

    The Ukrainians themselves have it good, they surrender, get fed, and traded back to the VSU to be put back into armed units

    Our guys cannot be put back into the army because they hand them back crippled and maimed if at all

    Ukraine has no fear of such an army , that's why they don't surrender , it will just drag on

    We only handed back 28 or their soldiers in the latest trade

    They gave back some 32 Russian truckers they detained. Not even servicemen. Truckers

    I don't know what's up with that

    I imagine most captured Ukrainian soldiers are not that eager to be traded back.
    There is a solution for that. Provided they're cleared of any nationalist org memberships and are not suspected of any crimes - they can join the LDNR armies instead as some auxillary personnel. Or as part of work battalions to help restore devestated settlements

    Well it's kind of a moot point because the Ukrainians don't hold more than 100 Russians or so prisoner at the moment. We hold a lot more of theirs.
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:22 pm

    Flaming has said many things and so have others here

    That the Ukrainian army will surrender is wishful thinking

    Of course Zelensky and Boris walking around is a propaganda stunt

    Do you know what it is for?

    To encourage Ukrainians to keep fighting to the last man

    And Russians largely support this war, but many are unhappy and actually angry with how the war was carried out

    But we can agree to disagree

    We will see if after Donetsk, there will be a large surrender,

    More likely it will be another round of negotiations

    You must use history to correctly analyze what's happening

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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:28 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    ............

    Oh and it's awesome to see you again, bro thumbsup


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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:28 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Zelensky doesn't care about losing some villages and towns, he's keeping us without moving for 46 days now and takes more territory

    He will stage false flags and be lauded as a hero

    But yes you are correct, they cannot get into Mariupol, we might take it finally in about 3 weeks

    Peskov is playing a role? What role is that? Breaking the morale of the army by disclosing "huge losses"?

    That's some 10d chess

    Peskov is Putin's spokesman and says what he's ordered to say

    He admitted to significant losses. When the anchor was talking about 6 generals dead, Peskov replied that it's a misunderstanding of the situation

    Peskov has not lied and he hasn't said anything the Russian MoD hasn't admitted to itself; namely the 1300 something losses 20 days ago or so.

    Yes Peskov is playing a role. Trying to show that the Kremlin is open to a deal.
    When in fact it's not. But the fascade will be kept for now.
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:29 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:Well, now we have Papadragon here. That Man knows everything about "mistakes" about  Russian military plans and Russian leadership. It is very interesting that prophet Papadragon even knows that "Russia will stop to exist as a country"...

    They sent their grunts into Kiev without artillery or air support and told them not to defend themselves

    They got slaughtered with artillery and survivors had their balls cut off

    If that doesn't look like mistake to you then I don't know what else to say



    As for Russia existing, if they drop the ball here or pussy out halfway they will be advertising to USA and EU that Russia is up for grabs and that they don't have the guts to do what needs to be done and in that case USA and EU will DEFINITELY grab the chance to finish what they started in the 90s

    Also, Chinese are nice for now but they don't like being associated with losers, they survived the Cold War by picking the winning team hence Russia has to make sure they don't lose this

    So now it's either Polish border and Rolling Thunder or 90s the Sequel

    It's not complicated

    That much is clear , I want to apologize to you and admit that your predictions was spot on

    Yes either the war must be fought correctly

    Or as you correctly stated 1 month ago, we will be carved up like other places that puss footed against the US
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:36 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:Well, now we have Papadragon here. That Man knows everything about "mistakes" about  Russian military plans and Russian leadership. It is very interesting that prophet Papadragon even knows that "Russia will stop to exist as a country"...

    They sent their grunts into Kiev without artillery or air support and told them not to defend themselves

    They got slaughtered with artillery and survivors had their balls cut off

    If that doesn't look like mistake to you then I don't know what else to say



    As for Russia existing, if they drop the ball here or pussy out halfway they will be advertising to USA and EU that Russia is up for grabs and that they don't have the guts to do what needs to be done and in that case USA and EU will DEFINITELY grab the chance to finish what they started in the 90s

    Also, Chinese are nice for now but they don't like being associated with losers, they survived the Cold War by picking the winning team hence Russia has to make sure they don't lose this

    So now it's either Polish border and Rolling Thunder or 90s the Sequel

    It's not complicated

    That much is clear , I want to apologize to you and admit that your predictions was spot on

    Yes either the war must be fought correctly

    Or as you correctly stated 1 month ago, we will be carved up like other places that puss footed against the US

    The war will be prosecuted as needed and will be won

    The fastest way to victory is collapsing enemy morale and propaganda, faith in their leadership, and splitting the general population from the radicals

    Bucha and Kramatorsk are helping Russia more than you know

    Yours and others obsessions with kill ratios, cratering all VSU everywhere, and whatever are all well and good - but they won't win the war but prolong it, and make post war recovery more difficult. The US did not win in Afghanistan or Vietnam or Iraq. Let's not follow their example.
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:36 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    ............

    Oh and it's awesome to see you again, bro thumbsup



    I see you also faced a temp ban.

    Glad to be back. Good to see familiar names.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:37 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:...That much is clear , I want to apologize to you...

    No worries, it's all good

    Stress happens

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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:39 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    ............

    Oh and it's awesome to see you again, bro thumbsup



    I see you also faced a temp ban.

    Glad to be back. Good to see familiar names.

    Ha, it was permanent but the governor changed ​his mind and phoned the warden to call off the execution lol1



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    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:42 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    ............

    Oh and it's awesome to see you again, bro thumbsup



    I see you also faced a temp ban.

    Glad to be back.  Good to see familiar names.

    Ha, it was permanent but the governor changed ​his mind and phoned the warden to call off the execution lol1




    Honestly, Garryb is a far better mod and leader than Vlad was. He is a patient man as seen here. Even George is too. But I don't see much of him around much these days. Probably busy protesting in Greece.

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    Post  lancelot Sun Apr 10, 2022 12:44 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:They sent their grunts into Kiev without artillery or air support and told them not to defend themselves
    They got slaughtered with artillery and survivors had their balls cut off
    If that doesn't look like mistake to you then I don't know what else to say

    As for Russia existing, if they drop the ball here or pussy out halfway they will be advertising to USA and EU that Russia is up for grabs and that they don't have the guts to do what needs to be done and in that case USA and EU will DEFINITELY grab the chance to finish what they started in the 90s

    Also, Chinese are nice for now but they don't like being associated with losers, they survived the Cold War by picking the winning team hence Russia has to make sure they don't lose this

    So now it's either Polish border and Rolling Thunder or 90s the Sequel

    It's not complicated
    It did not happen like that. Russia sent the VDV airborne troops to take the airport north of Kiev to basically catch the Ukrainians by surprise and avoid a slow transit over the Pripyat marshes I think. The VDV does not carry heavy equipment. They tried to land what equipment they do have with Il-76s at the airport. But artillery fire from Kiev damaged the runway and the Il-76s had to abort back to Belarus. So they moved their equipment (i.e. BMD IFVs) overland from Belarus to the airport area. In the meantime the VDV troops managed to repulse the Ukrainian mechanized unit which they sent to clear up the airport. This was done with the support of Russian aviation. They basically spent like the night in a game of cat and mouse. Then Russia did another large heliborne troop insertion. Then the VDV's equipment arrived overland. Since the VDV would not be enough to engage those units properly they sent a mechanized brigade after the VDV. Those are the guys we saw stopped in the road in the middle of nowhere. I still question why exactly that movement with the mechanized brigade happened the way it did though. Perhaps they were told to stop outside Ukrainian artillery range? Perhaps they expected Ukraine to move some of their troops in the East back to Kiev to defend the capital, and the VDV was supposed to then fall back towards the mechanized brigade? And when the hoped for Ukrainian troop movements did not happen the mechanized brigade moved towards Kiev to try to pose enough of a challenge get the Ukrainians to redeploy their units from the East? When that basically did not happen, they just redeployed the troops to focus on eliminating Ukrainian troops on the East.

    I think the whole plan relied on luring the Ukrainian forces entrenched in the East into open terrain where they would be destroyed with helicopters and aviation. That would basically cause the collapse of a huge amount of Ukrainian territory. Since that did not happen, and Donbass was still under threat, they had to redeploy to destroy the entrenched Ukrainian forces with a conventional armored offensive. Or at least to encircle them and destroy them with bombardments. It remains to be seen how they will handle the Ukrainian troops in the East.

    I agree that with without the capitulation of Kiev, and, I think at least carving out Novorossiya out of Ukraine there is little chance of even a half decent middle term peace. I think Russia definitively needs to capture Kharkiv and use it as a center of government for Novorossiya. I do not think it is necessary to capture Dnipropetrovsk or Zaporizhzhia at this stage. Ideally they should capture everything East and South of the Dnieper. And Ukraine's access to the sea should be cut. But it depends on how far they want to go. If things got really bad, and they want to peace out without getting the whole thing, just raze Kiev and Lvov to the ground with carpet bombing. Do just like Israel does. And turn the whole region west of the Dnieper into Europe's version of the Gaza strip.


    Last edited by lancelot on Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    sepheronx
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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #10 - Page 38 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #10

    Post  sepheronx Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:02 pm

    Of course they will take Kharkov. They have it surrounded. They are waiting till there are enough forces to put the squeeze further.

    If there were more troops They would have done both at same time but they didn't use a ton for this op. They are still relying on meeting up with DNR and LPR forces in the middle.

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