2022 Kazakhstan violent unrest

Tass.com works great but tass.ru is mostly garbage.

But read on tass.ru that foreign Minister from Russia and Turkey talked and both agreed Kazakhstans government is doing right thing. If this is the case, then it isn't Turkey who incited anything.

Plenty of civilian airplanes in Kazakh airspace still.
I would like to see it closed off, just in case. Even if all government stocks of air defence systems are in the know, there has been months of preparation leading to this situation and no one can be sure what has been smuggled in the country. Even during the chaotic past day(s) when Almaty was in hands of aggressors. Hard to rule out potential provocation like shootdown of airliner - it's integral part of US playbook.

Urluber wrote:Plenty of civilian airplanes in Kazakh airspace still.
I would like to see it closed off, just in case. Even if all government stocks of air defence systems are in the know, there has been months of preparation leading to this situation and no one can be sure what has been smuggled in the country. Even during the chaotic past day(s) when Almaty was in hands of aggressors. Hard to rule out potential provocation like shootdown of airliner - it's integral part of US playbook.

From my understanding, the airports are being monitored and protected by CSTO and possibly the Kazakh AF. So they are aware. But at current moment, I agree with you in that they need to start limiting flights around Kazakhstan.

https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/01/06/v-aktau-protestuyushhie-zayavili-ob-uspeshnom-izgnanii-nazarbaeva.html

Protestors in Aktau, Western Kazakhstan are saying that their demands are satisfied, now that Nazerbayev has been run out of power, and they're going home. I guess they've seen which way the wind is blowing. Or maybe they got the order to stand down.

The opposition in Kiev meanwhile has stated that Tokayev is Nazarbayev's man, and that there won't be justice until Nazerbayev is removed completely (implying Tokayev as well given that he is his chosen successor)

Well that's a lot of intrigue alright.
Also the fact that Nazerbayev has not been heard from since the crisis erupted, apparently he's getting medical treatment. Is he co-operating with Tokayev about keeping quiet for fear of inflaming the situation, and handing over the national security council position to Tokayev for the sake of stability of the country?
Or is he under house arrest while Tokayev is orchestrating an effective coup like what the State Committee tried to do with Gorbachev in 1991?

For sure the opposition instruments, telegram channels, etc... were all activated in the Ukraine along with the opposition there, as well as opposition networks in Belarus, the Czech-based Current Time Russian-language TV channel, the Polish based NEXT Russian-language channel, the Russian Dozhd TV channel, and liberals in the Russian establishments like Kseniya Sobchak, the Echo Moscow radio station - were all agitating in favour of the protest movement, prophesising the end of the Kazakh regime and major coming problems for Russia.
It was at least some of these networks that made the first move, and are probably behind some of the armed groups too - Tokayev would have never had the opportunity to grab the reigns of power like he did without them.

Question is, was Tokayev reacting to the events and used the opportunity created, or did he co-operate with and initiate them in the first place using his own people and connections, so that he could achieve his aims?

Well either way it's an internal matter for Kazakhstan. Good for Tokayev. The main hope is that he's genuine about restoring order and inviting the CSTO in for that goal, and that goal alone. No funny business or provocations involving Russian soldiers so that he could later sell an 'anti-Russian' position to the masses. I suspect though that he has gotten what he wants already.

I don't ultimately expect Tokayev to be neccessarily less inclined to run a double game and 'multi-vector policy' than Nazerbayev was. But he has put in his cards with Russia publicly. In addition, and what's no less important - is that all the Russophobic forces in Kazakhstan have one way or the other suffered a major blow to morale, even if they won't be disbanded. Their overseas organizers and all the Maidanists in Kiev, Belarus, Eastern Europe are also going to be associated with the sort of sights and sounds we saw coming out of Almaty over the last couple of days. Russia meanwhile gets to play the peacekeeper and affirm Tokayev's legitimacy.

So not a bad deal all in all.

@Python

Do you think that Russia will work with Kazakhstan to more or less adjust the social and economic structure of Kazakhstan to prevent something like this in the future?

Also, do you imagine that the Russian government may clamp down harder on the liberal shitheads for helping instigate this?

@ flamming_python

I don't pretend that I understand it all . But you seem to know . I think the majority of the people looking on , don't know exactly what is going on . And that is the problem . All we see , is Boots on the ground , shooting . Some people shooting back . This is exactly the type of  confusing situation that opportunists use to get into power . And I think an early premature and unnecessary entrance by CSTO , into Kazakh security situation , may have the exact opposite desired effect .

At the moment , I only understand this early intervention if :

( 1 )  As part of CSTO , agreement exists for intervention in purely internal civil disturbances .

( 2 )  That there exists an immediate threat to Russia or others , in case of collapse of Kazakh government .

( 3 )  That there is ethnic cleansing or attacks against Russians in Kazakhistan .

Are any of these conditions true ? To justify early intervention inside Kazakhistan ? I don't know about cases 1 . But we do not yet know what regime replaces the present order ! So we can not become paranoid yet ! And I have heard of no ethnic problems against Russians , like say Ukraine . It seems very much like an internal power struggle . At the moment , I see the danger from NATO involvement , as exemplified by this plane coming in ! And job of CSTO , in protecting Kazakhistan land and sea and air border . Leaving the internal situation to the people , and only intervention , when it has become clear and necessary and friend and foe is known !

Approximate composition of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO sent to Kazakhstan:

Russia - 3000
Belarus - 500
Tajikistan - 200
Armenia - 70

Kyrgyzstan has officially decided not to support the CSTO

Update: Kazakhstan…  Tajikistan will send about 200 servicemen to Kazakhstan as part of the CSTO peacekeeping force.   Armenia will send about 70 servicemen and Belarus will send a contingent.   Russian servicemen numbers are unknown for now.

Video of cleaning Almaty streets and detention of rioters

Scorpius wrote:Approximate composition of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO sent to Kazakhstan:

Russia - 3000
Belarus - 500
Tajikistan - 200
Armenia - 70

Kyrgyzstan has officially decided not to support the CSTO

So what's Kyrgyzstans excuse?

nomadski wrote:@ flamming_python

I don't pretend that I understand it all . But you seem to know . I think the majority of the people looking on , don't know exactly what is going on . And that is the problem . All we see , is Boots on the ground , shooting . Some people shooting back . This is exactly the type of  confusing situation that opportunists use to get into power . And I think an early premature and unnecessary entrance by CSTO , into Kazakh security situation , may have the exact opposite desired effect .

At the moment , I only understand this early intervention if :

( 1 )  As part of CSTO , agreement exists for intervention in purely internal civil disturbances .

( 2 )  That there exists an immediate threat to Russia or others , in case of collapse of Kazakh government .

( 3 )  That there is ethnic cleansing or attacks against Russians in Kazakhistan .

Are any of these conditions true ? To justify early intervention inside Kazakhistan ? I don't know about cases 1 . But we do not get know what regime replaces the present order ! So we can not become paranoid yet ! And I have heard of no ethnic problems against Russians , like say Ukraine . It seems very much like an internal power struggle . At the moment , I see the danger from NATO involvement , as exemplified by this plane coming in ! And job of CSTO , in protecting Kazakhistan land and sea and air border . Leaving the internal situation to the people , and only intervention , when it has become clear and necessary and friend and foe is known !

The condition for the use of the CSTO peacekeeping forces is the direct appeal of the President of Kazakhstan to the CSTO for assistance in countering foreign terrorist groups.

In connection with the appeal of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan K.-J.K.Tokayev and in view of the threat to national security and sovereignty of the Republic of Kazakhstan caused, inter alia, by outside interference, the CSTO Collective Security Council, in accordance with article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty, decided to send Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO to the Republic of Kazakhstan for a limited period in order to stabilize and normalize the situation in this country

Nikol Pashinyan

Chairman of the CSTO Collective Security Council,

Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia

http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67557

Kazakh Crisis UPDATE: “Dozens” of protestors KILLED, 13 Security DEAD inc 2 beheaded Watch the special forces attack

miketheterrible wrote:@Python

Do you think that Russia will work with Kazakhstan to more or less adjust the social and economic structure of Kazakhstan to prevent something like this in the future?

Also, do you imagine that the Russian government may clamp down harder on the liberal shitheads for helping instigate this?

Well if Tokayev had a hand in this from the very beggining then that would suggest that his position was never as weak as it appeared over the last couple of days, and the situation never slipped outside of his control

Which means he has leverage, and him turning to Moscow for assistance is just a nod to the later, much as rival Russian princes used to try and gain the approval of the Golden Horde over their rivals to affirm themselves as the recognized Grand Princes. It benefits him, and it benefits Moscow

Tokayev has already spoken about foreign-sponsored terrorists and interference from abroad, but in practice he will just point the finger at Kiev alone I suspect. Every Western country has been very careful to keep quiet about the events in Kazakhstan and not take sides, and it would not benefit Tokayev to burn bridges with them either.
One way or the other, it would benefit Russia to see Kazakhstan cut ties with Maidan Ukraine and close ranks with itself and Belarus against further interference in the post-Soviet sphere.

Moscow in its turn has no particular reason to stand up for Nazerbayev over Tokayev. It was under Nazerbayev that many of Kazakhstan's multi-vector policy choices were implemented, his position if he is indeed not in willing co-operation - is exceedingly weak, and he's in his 80s anyway.
Tokayev meanwhile is something of an unknown. So far however, he's not done anything that contradicts Russian interests.

flamming_python wrote:https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/01/06/v-aktau-protestuyushhie-zayavili-ob-uspeshnom-izgnanii-nazarbaeva.html

Protestors in Aktau, Western Kazakhstan are saying that their demands are satisfied, now that Nazerbayev has been run out of power, and they're going home. I guess they've seen which way the wind is blowing. Or maybe they got the order to stand down.

Nah, that is not the case.
Those protests started in Aktau, but were peaceful there from the beginning. The pics we can see, with police&omon joining the protesters - are all made there.
So as soon as Takayev dismissed the govt, Nazarbayev and his goons from power, plus revised the fuel prices policy back where it was - the people are cool.
They get what they wanted, no point in riots.
What is happening in Almaty, is a different animal. A staged & orchestrated coup, and if you ask me, it is made by the Ukrainian scenario. Those nationalistic movements that raised extremely high n the last 3-4 years are just a cover for something bigger, staged in Kazachstan. Kaz is an important part of a silk belt infrastructure. By destabilizing it, you hit two ducks with one stone.

miketheterrible wrote:

So what's Kyrgyzstans excuse?  

The official position has not been announced, this is a personal order of the President of Kyrgyzstan.

Scorpius wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

So what's Kyrgyzstans excuse?  

The official position has not been announced, this is a personal order of the President of Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan may end up having trouble in future and less likely get assistance unless they have a good excuse.

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/01/06/v-aktau-protestuyushhie-zayavili-ob-uspeshnom-izgnanii-nazarbaeva.html

Protestors in Aktau, Western Kazakhstan are saying that their demands are satisfied, now that Nazerbayev has been run out of power, and they're going home. I guess they've seen which way the wind is blowing. Or maybe they got the order to stand down.

Nah, that is not the case.
Those protests started in Aktau, but were peaceful there from the beginning. The pics we can see, with police&omon joining the protesters - are all made there.
So as soon as Takayev dismissed the govt, Nazarbayev and his goons from power, plus revised the fuel prices policy back where it was - the people are cool.
They get what they wanted, no point in riots.
What is happening in Almaty, is a different animal. A staged & orchestrated coup, and if you ask me, it is made by the Ukrainian scenario. Those nationalistic movements that raised extremely high n the last 3-4 years are just a cover for something bigger, staged in Kazachstan. Kaz is an important part of a silk belt infrastructure. By destabilizing it, you hit two ducks with one stone.

What you think will happen next?

So, judging by these videos, the real clean-up has begun. I think the number of victims will be measured in thousands.

Upd: as part of the military equipment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation being transferred to Kazakhstan, electronic warfare systems have been noticed.

Upd2:

ALAMO wrote:

Firebird wrote:
I read that Kazakstan was once nearly 50% Russian. Now its prob 20% thats becoming oppressed like in Hohol-land.

Even more, in a peak, Kazakhs was barely 30% of the population.
But that trend reversed after 1991.

It was always going to reverse, even if Slavic migration to Kazakhstan kept up

Under Soviet-era social guarantees and maternity policies, Kazakh mothers in the villages were having 5-6 kids, while the fertility dynamics of Slavs in the Soviet Union was declining from the late 60s onwards.

flamming_python wrote:

It was always going to reverse, even if Slavic migration to Kazakhstan kept up

Under Soviet-era social guarantees and maternity policies, Kazakh mothers in the villages were having 5-6 kids, while the fertility dynamics of Slavs in the Soviet Union was declining from the late 60s onwards.

Just don't tell me you forgot about the ethnic cleansing in the nineties and how many Russian refugees from Central Asia there were.

Russia was always close to kazakhstan but never got a CSTO deployment until now.

In my opinion the coordination of the EAEU increases, as well as the CSTO.

Russian sphere of influence increases with moscow leading security measures.

CSTO is legitimized with this action. Which it had not been until now.

With multiple color revolutions around Russia, and the efforts of EAEU fighting them off, those states become more dependent on Russia,

Hence lukashenko signs deals with Russia that before he was reluctant to do. Same goes for armenia even with pashinyan. Tajiks and kyrgyz have russian military bases there, so its symbolic if kyrgyz dont participate but VKS airbase there still is vital part of RU security architecture in central asia.

And now kazakhs, will sign deals with Russia furthering integration due to the support tokayev will need to get anything done /accomplished.

Also the riots stem from economic concerns, Russia can alleviate kazakh problems like Belarus by deepening integration and cooperation

I remember how the US and Kazakhstan agreed on the later taking in 10,000 refugees from Afghanistan as the Taliban was taking over, until Russia pressured Kazakhstan and the rest of Central Asia not to do it

Kazakhstan dodged a bullet here thanks to Russia, else those people would have all been weaponized and employed in these events

Did you guys see the vids of the Afghan refugees that were sent to Kosovo? The videos were only shot from afar, and the photos had their faces blurred out



Hopefully, Tokayev won't consider any such proposals even for a minute now that he has the full reigns of power.

Scorpius wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

It was always going to reverse, even if Slavic migration to Kazakhstan kept up

Under Soviet-era social guarantees and maternity policies, Kazakh mothers in the villages were having 5-6 kids, while the fertility dynamics of Slavs in the Soviet Union was declining from the late 60s onwards.

Just don't tell me you forgot about the ethnic cleansing in the nineties and how many Russian refugees from Central Asia there were.

There wasn't any ethnic cleansing of Russians in Central Asia per say, to say that would be to cheapen the term. There was ethnic cleansing of Meskhetian Turks in the Fergana valley in Uzbekistan, you can look up what that looked like. Later over the next 3 decades - pogroms in border cities of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and so on. Uzbeks, Dungans, Uighurs, Kurds were all victims.

Russians went through unofficial discrimination, as well as local nationalism, and government restrictions, the later mostly in Turkmenistan. There was a wave of anti-Russian nationalism in Uzbekistan in the early 90s and somewhat in Kazakhstan. In Tajikistan there was a civil war. There are still many Russians living in Tashkent, Almaty, Bishkek and other cities however. If the situation was that bad they wouldn't still be there. Mostly, they suffer from a lack of social mobility - inability to move up in big business and power structures. But in the private sector and as specialists, they continue to occupy a big niche.

The Kazakh militants who were in Afghanistan have made it back home and have been active in these "riots".
The US is using its jihadi doggies like in Syria.

https://ifc.livejournal.com/1218800.html

Good article which explains the conflict between nazarbayevs pro elf zapadophiles and tokayev who leaned towards mordor Moscow.

Now its apparent tokayev benefitted from the riots to get rid of nazarbayev who admitted Chevron to pump kazakh oil.

Tokayev has won a smart victory and even says which might be rumor, that VVP rode with tokayev in the same car having a head to head meeting, while Nazarbayev was left to ride it alone.

So it shows that CSTO, EAEU has backing of tokayev who leans more east, and nazarbayev tried to keep the nation firmly driving west.

Well it's his statues that are in pieces now,  the god king has become scorned.

Kazakh military teaching those aholes a lesson they wont forget and some of them will never wake from.


Also remember tokayev comes from nur otan party which is similar to united russia. He is emulating russian politics and plays to the advantages of sovereign democracy system. Also some say he is svidomo style kazakh , but he really uses the nazis to accomplish the goal of purging nazarbayev from the government. 

In 2021 he did affirm russian language is official in kazakh and he affirmed the punishment of any discrimination, including some youtuber who was forcing employees to switch to kazakh. Well he was pursued by kazakh security forces and had to flee. 

Recall nazarbayev ran against nur otan and did try to implement rainbow pride system at some point.


If nursultan is getting chased out, does that mean we can call it Astana again ?

miketheterrible wrote:...But serious reform will be needed. And a huge sacking of military and security officials and units. New units will need to be formed...

First and most important order of business is to identify, track down and permanently dispose of every single cop and solder who sided with insurgents

All of them, including ones that didn't show up for work that day

Vermin needs to be put down

Scorpius wrote:Approximate composition of the Collective Peacekeeping Forces of the CSTO sent to Kazakhstan:

Russia - 3000
Belarus - 500
Tajikistan - 200
Armenia - 70

Kyrgyzstan has officially decided not to support the CSTO

If that bolded part is true it really is 70 days of Christmas

European media is reporting on this but almost nothing in USA

Very unusual for them not to jump on this well in advance

I think this confirms that this was solely Brussels/East-Europe Hail Mary pass

Euros (especially Tier 2 ones) know that someone will be getting thrown to the wolves during those upcoming USA/RU negotiations and are desperate to prevent them from happening

CIA is sitting this one out, their ex-Afghan assets (jihadists) may be getting used here by their European buddies but they are not playing this one