The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

Why wait ? Because there is a chance of political change . As long as there is no criminal ethnic cleansing , then there is no political pressure to act . Even then Russia has a choice . The citizens in East Ukraine , have Russian passports , and can travel and settle there , either temporarily or permanently , if they choose . The retaliation can wait . Why wait  ? Even if Russia could respond and did respond now militarily , it stands alone in the fight , carrying the burden itself alone . How long will the war last ? The conventional forces that NATO can arm , can put a significant burden on Russian economy . An economy that will not grow as fast , because of sanctions also . Unless Russia responds with a tactical Nuke ?

So what is best ? Well to avoid a war now . But to then build an alliance to confront them . From Asia to South America . Break the sanctions against North Korea and Iran   . Allowing firms to operate freely . The answer is not to send Russian Arms here or there . But to send machine tools and Engineers to build factories . Using flexible manufacturing tools and machines , the same factory can produce a ballistic missile or a fuel Rod for a reactor or centrifuge ! Does Venezeula or Cuba have a Nuclear reactor or a full fuel cycle ? Then it is time they should ! This is what it takes , to put the Jack back into the box .

Once the balance of forces changes in their favour , then they could all take action . Similar to what happened in WWII , when Soviet factories were moved East  . To buy time and build forces before hitting back . Now economy and industry  is built up in the "  East " ,  also . Russia has choices . And they all don't have to respond with Nukes , even if they can !

You can wait but eventually Russia will be passively checkmated into having to accept Ukraine as part of NATO or, invade. And the closer Ukraine gets to become NATO eligible, it means the stronger it's to resist an invasion that seeks to prevent it.

What allies are Russia going to enlist to go to war with Ukraine in a 5-10 year period that's not already known? .. Central Asian stans and Belarus. China? Lol

Time with respect to Ukraine is not on Russia's side. Now if you simply forget about Ukraine all together and admit defeat, then you can say, maybe 30 years from now the Empire might collapse. Maybe then "Russia" won't have to fight for Ukraine. That's like throwing a dice hoping it lands on your favorite number. Provided the U.S doesn't bait Russia in with a provocation impossible to ignore at the time of their choosing... which they're more than capable.

It's an uncertain, almost pipedream level suggestion where everything works itself out in the end. I refer to this sort of thing as fairytales.

Ukraine will collapse in 3 years, in 5, in 7, in 9...

This stuff doesn't work on wishes.

So only the advanced and civilised Europeans can maintain an alliance ? Not the backward stans or Asiatics ? This is even worse than a fairy tale , it is grand delusion !  And yes it makes sense to wait . Since the evil Empire is collapsing and Asia is rising . It makes sense to wait , once the break even point is surpassed , then economies are built up and alliances form and uncle scum bags , gets shafted with Nukes , from four corners of the world ! While Europe / Yank love child will be speaking Russian or Mandarin . Look at some futuristic American Hollywood films , they all speak Mandarin.......Even eventually .......Ukraine !


LOL .



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ow78NdvQ0

Ok.

ATLASCUB wrote:You can wait but eventually Russia will be passively checkmated into having to accept Ukraine as part of NATO or, invade. And the closer Ukraine gets to become NATO eligible, it means the stronger it's to resist an invasion that seeks to prevent it.

What allies are Russia going to enlist to go to war with Ukraine in a 5-10 year period that's not already known? .. Central Asian stans and Belarus. China? Lol

Time with respect to Ukraine is not on Russia's side. Now if you simply forget about Ukraine all together and admit defeat, then you can say, maybe 30 years from now the Empire might collapse. Maybe then "Russia" won't have to fight for Ukraine. That's like throwing a dice hoping it lands on your favorite number. Provided the U.S doesn't bait Russia in with a provocation impossible to ignore at the time of their choosing... which they're more than capable.

It's an uncertain, almost pipedream level suggestion where everything works itself out in the end. I refer to this sort of thing as fairytales.

Ukraine will collapse in 3 years, in 5, in 7, in 9...

This stuff doesn't work on wishes.

Time is on Russia side.


The hard currency income of Ukraine is falling year by year, and as the current gas transit contract run out they will miss big part of the state budget, and the export income.


And why you think that Russia wants to invade Ukraine ?

What they have that needed by the Russians ?

All that they need to do is to follow the USA playbook, and destroy the Ukrainan infrastructure, with air/long range assets.

Like the USA did in Syria/Serbia - attack the power/transformer stations, drink water treatment plants, railway and road junctions.


And repeat it in every 6 month.


How long time it needs for the Ukrainans to accept any condition from Russia, without seeing any soldier on they soil ?

Every 6 months... cmon. Pay attention to what you write first.

What happens when they hit back at Russia proper for getting hit every six months? Invasion? Isn't the whole purpose of the 6-month pipedream a means to avoid having to invade?

What happens the first time Russia hits Ukraine? Now blowback at all? of any kind?

This is kindergarten level commentary. Not that it's unusual here, to the contrary. I should simply stop replying and doing the usual, dropping cognitive dissonance sauce whenever. It eventually gets through for a couple, obviously not all - conditioning doesn't go away overnight. Some are simply lost in the koolaid.... all unique in their own way.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44107/poland-says-it-will-send-ukraine-shoulder-fired-anti-aircraft-missiles

"We stand in solidarity with our Ukrainian neighbors in light of the threat they are now facing from Russia," Morawiecki said. "However, solidarity and words are not enough today; now they need to be forged into action. For this and other reasons, which are related to the very threatening military situation, which, unfortunately, has developed there, we are also ready to hand over defensive weapons."

He said that the proposed military assistance packages, which are still being finalized with Ukrainian officials, could include "ammunition, Groms, and various types of drones."

ATLASCUB wrote:Every 6 months... cmon. Pay attention to what you write first.

What happens when they hit back at Russia proper for getting hit every six months? Invasion? Isn't the whole purpose of the 6-month pipedream a means to avoid having to invade?

What happens the first time Russia hits Ukraine? Now blowback at all? of any kind?

C'mon, it is from the USA playbook.


What Ukriane could do ?

Russia has infinite options for escallation , what Ukriane has ?


And anyway, the target of Russia is to bring the war to the USA doorstep - everything that happens in Europe secondary.

When was the last time the U.S invaded Cuba or Mexico by lobbying stand off missiles every six months? Leaving the potential open of getting hit across the border....

Moreover, it's not an escalation ladder with Ukraine that you have to worry about, but with the U.S and the E.U, as well as their protectorates elsewhere.

Check the playbook cause it ain't the one you're thinking. It's the koolaid playbook from Russia propagandist with Kinzhals and Zircons flying about conquering the evil West.

Neverminded that, It's ok. It's going to work out like you say.

Article from Andrey Mitrofanov on topwar.ru on the potential effect of US/Western sanctions on Russia

Full article can be found after the link.

https://en.topwar.ru/191654-sankcii-oruzhie-realnogo-vremeni.html

None American weapon until it has done as much harm to our country as the economic and technological (restriction of access to certain technologies) sanctions imposed on us by the United States do. The opinion is often expressed that economic and technological sanctions are even useful in the long term, they say, they force the state and business to develop the corresponding domestic areas. However, this is far from always the case, especially when the enemy knows how to apply sanctions competently, and our enemy knows how to do it.


The most striking example of the effectiveness of sanctions is not even Russia, but China. It would seem how deep the economic ties between the US and China are, how much has been said that economic wars between these countries will be mutually destructive for their economies, that the US is nothing without the technological power of China? But now, a few Chinese companies have become too big, creating too complex high-value-added equipment and competing with American companies in the high-tech equipment market. And most importantly, they began to develop and implement their own high-tech components, for example, processors, and not buy them from American companies - so they will develop their own standards, then who will pay license fees to American and British companies?

Of course, we are talking about ZTE and Huawei. After the introduction of American sanctions against these companies, they suffered enormous damage, ZTE left many markets, and Huawei, although it continues to work, no longer claims to be the market leader - its products are produced without the use of the latest electronic components, in particular chips 5G. In addition, the United States does not allow Chinese companies to purchase modern high-tech equipment for the production of microprocessors in mainland China, forcing them to work with OEM manufacturers, such as TSMC, which is located in Taiwan, which is legally part of the PRC, but is actually under the American protectorate.

In such a situation, the United States always has levers of pressure on the PRC - if you don’t obey, we will block the possibility of working with Taiwan, we will bring down the high-tech sector of the economy. Realizing this possibility, China is forced to consider the scenario of forceful intervention in Taiwan. Preparations for a forceful solution to the Taiwan issue serve as an excuse for the US to increase anti-Chinese rhetoric, tighten sanctions and increase arms supplies to Taiwan. It turns out that the United States creates a vicious circle, and in the end they can “crush” a competitor and earn extra money. In addition, the United States gets the opportunity, at its discretion, to bring the PRC into a military conflict, planned to create unacceptable conditions for China at a convenient time for the United States, forcing the two parts of the once united country to fight each other, mutually weakening each other, while strengthening the American economy. . Doesn't it remind you of anything?

And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Buildup

Let's imagine a situation. The United States imposes sanctions against a conditional country, for example, Russia, regarding the supply of any product, for example, cars containing American components / electronics / patents, and they are contained not only in American products, but in almost all high-tech products of the leading countries of the world .

Where it leads? To the almost complete collapse of the car market in the Russian Federation. It can be assumed that 99,99% of cars supplied or manufactured in Russia contain American components/electronics/patents. We will not be able not only to buy cars normally, but also to purchase spare parts for the repair of existing ones, as well as for the manufacture of new ones at domestic factories (all electronics in them are imported, as well as many other things).


...


Health limit

Another way to shake up the economy of the enemy with the help of periodic sanctions is to limit the operation of previously purchased products.

For example, an enterprise purchased from a Western "partner" modern high-tech machines for the manufacture of certain products. Then the US "turned on" the sanctions. It’s good if the purchased machines didn’t immediately turn off as a result of a remote shutdown performed by the manufacturer (and before that, they didn’t leak information about the products manufactured on these machines, so to speak, “to improve product quality”).

But even if the machines did not immediately turn off, it will quickly become clear that specific consumables are needed for their correct operation, which can only be purchased from the manufacturer's company (possibly through intermediaries, but with great difficulties and overpayment). And without them, the machine cannot function.


..


Is there any way to resist cyclical sanctions and performance restrictions?

Yes, but it's not easy to do. To do this, a state strategy must be adopted to limit trade turnover, ensuring the borrowing of technologies and full-cycle enterprises, and not the thoughtless purchase of final goods. Let it be a little outdated, but all its components (or at least critical ones) must be produced on the territory of the Russian Federation.

For example, take cars - let's say we generally prohibit the import of cars from both the West and the East. Inconvenience for the population? For a while, yes. But we allow the construction of factories for the production of slightly outdated models. For example, if there is a conditional model on the market under the index 200 or 300, then we are ready to organize the production of its predecessors under the index 75 or 80. A little outdated - but reliable and of high quality (and sometimes better than those produced now). Let the automatic transmission be not 7-10 steps, but 4-5, but it must be completely manufactured in Russia. Similarly, with machine tools, electronics, etc.

We will be able to develop what we have received, to reach a new level - wonderful. No - well, anyway, it will be much better than the "buildup" that they can organize for us. In the end, the USSR did not hesitate to borrow the technologies of other countries, including acquiring them officially. And just acquiring often "factories".

...

Iron curtain

The form of sanctions that we are currently being promised is a shutdown from global financial systems such as SWIFT, maybe even a shutdown from part of the Internet, shutdown of Western payment systems, blocking of online services, a ban on transactions with US currency, blocking the supply of industrial goods and much more. In fact, this is a direct threat to turn our country into North Korea v.2.0.

One can only be glad that our country has not become addicted to the drug of GMO agricultural products that are incapable of reproduction. Countries that do not have their own revolving seed fund can literally be made into slaves or simply starved to death.

How real is this threat? It can be assumed that this will not be easy to do. At a minimum, at least informally, such sanctions will not be supported by China - its leaders must understand that if Russia is broken, then they are guaranteed to be next. And in Europe, a number of countries are not too happy about the potential American hegemony.

But the blow to the Russian economy will be extremely strong - it won’t seem enough to us, and measures will have to be applied much more serious than in the case of the “buildup”, and we will definitely talk about them in the next article.

AUTHOR:
Andrey Mitrofanov

ATLASCUB wrote:When was the last time the U.S invaded Cuba or Mexico by lobbying stand off missiles every six months? Leaving the potential open of getting hit across the border....

Moreover, it's not an escalation ladder with Ukraine that you have to worry about, but with the U.S and the E.U, as well as their protectorates elsewhere.

Check the playbook cause it ain't the one you're thinking. It's the koolaid playbook from Russia propagandist with Kinzhals and Zircons flying about conquering the evil West.

Neverminded that, It's ok. It's going to work out like you say.

Syria , Serbia, Lybia, NK , Germany, Japan ?
Don't be childish, USA rapped Mexico, and occupied big part of it . And the USA bombed to the hell everything that it needed in central America to get the they money.


And generally it is about game theory, see the available options of Russia regards of kinetic Ukrainan options :
1. Full scale invasion, cost : highest , benefit : nothing, there is no resources that they need, all industrial capacity of Ukraine is redundant now
2. Limited air campaign, first take out the defense systems ,and afterwars use Su-34 to destroy the infrastructure - Cost : low, there is nothing really that the Ukrianans could use reteliatin, benefit : bigger then in point 1, but still nothing really usefull
3. Spend part of the currency resrevers and human resources to organise 2014 style MAIDAN - lowest , benefit : high


Problem is the above options cost Russia lot, and they could be considered as tactical success.


Only way to solve the problem is to start to increase the ecconomic ,political and military relationships with Cuba/Venezuela and Nicaragua, probably with the help of China.

Dear leader is trapped. That was known the second he balked in 2014.

How on earth is he trapped?

He has avoided the trap, which was to drag Russia into an endless pointless war in the Ukraine.

What would be better? Acting decisively in 2014 or postponing to 2022 for a full break up with the West with no assurance of political victory inside Ukraine - losing almost all cards to the empire and its lackies after they had time to settle in?

What decisive actions are you suggesting?

Ukraine is not Russia... if Ukrainians want to murder fellow Ukrainians... well tell me... why didn't Poland invade... the Ukrainians are just as much Polish as they are Russian.

What would be the goal? The purpose of invading or attacking?

Would a full break up with the West had happened in 2014 due to decisive action?

A break with the west in 2014 would have been far more devastating for Russia... in 2014 most of their food came from the EU, their helicopter engines and jet trainer fighter engines and their ship gas turbines all came from the Ukraine along with the vast majority of their transport aircraft, and plenty of other things too, which now are mostly replaced or ready to start replacement now.

Food exports instead of imports.

Amidst the chaos, over Ukraine, absolutely not. Turn the page to 2022, the West is certainly ready now, and the Americans have had time to groom the break up... as ready as they'll ever be. The more the years pass, the better prepared they're to push the button. Total leadership failure ....appeasement resulting in potentially worst outcomes.

What breakup?

If you mean the Donbass and Lugansk regions... good.

The rest of the Ukraine is a broken mess... these two regions want a go on their own.... we might see how that works out for them if Kiev don't talk to them.

Sometimes quick, harsh pain is better than long-term, lingering pain. Failure to act, paralysis, hesitation is costly.

Very true but before amputating your hand taking the time to learn to do everything with the other hand just makes things much easier.

As old fool Biden said... "there's no good options" for Russia.

Creepy Joe is just reading the teleprompter... he has got no idea.

Russia does not care about the Ukraine other than they want peace on their borders... like any country that is not the west.

No matter how much folks in Kremlin top brass wish it - including those who advised so wrongly and dug a bigger hole in 2014. You can continue to kick the can down the road, continue doing half-measures hoping it will go away. It won't, as time has shown.

Russia has replaced most of the things they got from Ukraine, their economy is growing and their military is in fighting fit condition... this can take as long as it needs to take... Russia is only getting stronger.

Russia has no intention of invading the Ukraine as long as Kiev does not use force against the rebel regions, so western threats of sanctions are meaningless.

No such thing as "lessons learned" either. There are no do overs in this business. You either get it right away or you don't. Failure to recognize those that "don't get it" makes matters even worse.

The only ones making mistakes is the west... they picked the wrong horse... they print their own money but this dog is costing them in PR terms as well as economic though they are putting as little money in to Ukraine as they can because they know it is a dead man walking.

Send them obsolete useless anti tank missiles... big deal...

How can you insult the "old fool" while at the same time "congratulate" him. Conflict it seems.

No conflict at all, you are the one claiming he is the chess grandmaster and every blunder is a master stroke... I am describing him as he is and you are claiming something else... you are the one with the cool aide blinkers on.

Plenty of damage control to be written as the bubble bursts clown. God knows they'll need your output on this low exposure forum when shit hits the fan. All man on deck.

What damage control.

Lavrov has already rejected the US offers of other discussions after having rejected the core requests from Russia.... sounds to me as if the rejection of Russian core security needs is going to lead to very little discussion at all... wonder how the west will take that rejection?

I mean they love to hear the sounds of their own voices... that is why they have the G7... I suspect they will restart the G20 ASAP just to get a chance to talk to the Russians.

Is the loss of the EU supposed to be tragic?

Kinda hoping the EU might realise that Europe needing the US to protect it from Russia is bullshit, and just not attacking Russia will protect the EU from Russia... a country they could do a lot of trade with and make a lot of money... but their leaders want to lick US boots and stay on the ground... how can Russia or China respect them?

Bunch of snivelling weaklings.

What's interesting is that they discussed the possibility of US sponsored coup to depose of Zelensky for his insolence and disobedience, I wasn't aware the US embassy in Ukraine directly intervened in preventing porta-potty-shenko's arrest.

Well Zelensky might have a lot of dirt on Biden and especially his son considering what went on in the Ukraine over the last few years...

Wikileaks might get some good stuff if Zelensky is removed...

The Kremlin didn't arm the IRA and certainly not in the 80s. It supported some left-wing Northern Irish group back in the 70s but they were marginal.

The irony is that it was Americans who were funding and supporting and arming the IRA... they had open fund raising parties in Boston to help the IRA...

The more postponement the worse the options for Russia. Conflict erupting now is actually beneficial to the Kremlin.... 2014 being the ideal chance but that is history now.

More soldiers and better pay... where is that money coming from... sounds like any delay is going to bankrupt them... they will start refusing weapons and asking for cash I suspect... at which the west will dry up... sending weapons is kickbacks for their MIC and getting rid of old ordinance for their militaries... but cash... well that is something they don't share.

What matters is how costly (politically, economically, militarily) and complex the operation to do so becomes.

The more Ukraine beefs up and transforms as an anti-Russian bulwark, the harder it's to achieve a quick, clean victory and push for any meaningful change on the ground... the more it will take to even settle for just saving the Donbass.

Recently conscripted soldiers are not usually the most effective... especially when most probably avoided service by being fat or sick.

Simply destroying the armed forces of Ukraine by lobbying stand off missiles from Russia and Belarus as a "magic solution" serves no meaningful purpose without ground forces clearing the ground for good - that's just a pipedream based on nothing but fairytales

Russia does not need to occupy Ukraine, there are already motivated trained men already there who know which bits they want and can fight for them.

With Kievs forces blind and broken and afraid, the rebels should be able to walk all over them... like Afghan government forces against the Taliban with US air power... except in this case Kievs forces are weak and the rebels are strong...

It wasn't because the U.S gave a shit about their word to Khrushchev or because they didn't have an overwhelming military advantage.

The Soviets had hundreds of tactical FROG missiles with nuke warheads... those US landing forces would be vapourised in their ships... there was no military advantage for the US on the ground in Cuba...

It's a bulletproof trap at this stage. The U.S can pick and chose the perfect timing for them.... whether to do so this February (as the stars align with the Olympics), or postpone to beef up Ukraine, and clear some uncooperative assets and minor political obstacles inside Ukraine and the EU. Either way... they own the initiative, they chose the time and date.

Unless Zelensky decides not to commit suicide.

What can Russia do to regain the initiative and change the calculus? So far it has been completely unable to do so.

They don't need to do anything, they are growing economically and militarily and soon they will be expanding their trade to the rest of the world...

Russia beefs up their military presence around Ukraine borders to say "we mean business"? U.S beefs up the sanctions regime threat to "full-break up with the West level" and ships more military hardware.

Then the US will have to change its threats because it hasn't added any new sanctions and is only promising new ones if Russia invades... which is not going to happen.

Ukrainian oligarchs and its puppets, knowing the stakes, up the negotiating price for becoming a sacrificial lamb (the Biden-Zelensky saga is nothing but a negotiation on price - more IMF funds/more aid from the U.S/EU etc).

So Kiev is going to get more money out of the west that it is never going to pay back... why is that bad for Russia?

What else can the Kremlin do next? Cuba and Venezuela.... lmao... that's a nonstarter, already debunked by any serious analyst and Medvedev himself. It's not up to Russia and the asking price will be too high (for Kremlin standards).

The Kremlin doesn't need to do anything else... the current situation in the Ukraine is fine for Russia.

What they could do is officially recognise the Donbass and Lugansk republics as independent... like Kosovo... then it can open its borders and start trading with both regions...

And the closer Ukraine gets to become NATO eligible, it means the stronger it's to resist an invasion that seeks to prevent it.

The Ukraine just announced it is increasing its army and paying its soldiers more.... taking men out of the economy and putting them essentially on welfare... how is that making the Ukraine stronger exactly?

What allies are Russia going to enlist to go to war with Ukraine in a 5-10 year period that's not already known? .. Central Asian stans and Belarus. China? Lol

What allies did it need for Georgia?

Time with respect to Ukraine is not on Russia's side. Now if you simply forget about Ukraine all together and admit defeat, then you can say, maybe 30 years from now the Empire might collapse. Maybe then "Russia" won't have to fight for Ukraine. That's like throwing a dice hoping it lands on your favorite number. Provided the U.S doesn't bait Russia in with a provocation impossible to ignore at the time of their choosing... which they're more than capable.

Why should Russia fight for Ukraine at all... Russia does not want the Ukraine... I would think that would be obvious by now.

Compare Ukraine with Belarus... the west imposed a coup on the Ukraine and Russia rushed in and rescued Crimea, but did very little for the rest at the time.

The west tried to overthrow Luka and what happened?

Ukraine will collapse in 3 years, in 5, in 7, in 9...

The next election will be interesting... who will run against Poro... Poro promises war... so who will vote for him?

I don't know... it will be interesting... it is unlikely to be legitimate or fair of course...

But I suspect a civil war when the results are obviously faked, or a coup when the wrong person wins...

Every 6 months... cmon. Pay attention to what you write first.

There wont be any need for 6 months of anything... a quick strike at the oligarchs that fund the nazi groups, and the Azov brigades barracks, and comms centres, and non nuclear power stations and infrastructure and most of the Ukrainian military will surrender or change sides.

A few super hard core nutters might want to continue the fight but they can be hunted down and eliminated like the ISIS vermin in Syria.

Poland sends Groms and some Groms might start shooting down airliners in Europe...

When was the last time the U.S invaded Cuba or Mexico by lobbying stand off missiles every six months? Leaving the potential open of getting hit across the border...

About 500 attempts to murder Castro and funding drug cartels in Mexico happens more than every six months. Suspicious fires in economically important places, and computer failures also occur too... also targeted assassination like in Iran...

I rather suspect the US will stop giving Russian officials US visas which would prevent them from working there... including in the UN, and I rather suspect Russia might need to do something rather drastic then.

The US already kicked out over 50 Russian diplomats by not renewing their visas...

U.S/NATO response leak.

https://elpais.com/infografias/2022/02/respuesta_otan/respuesta_otan_eeuu.pdf

To save folks time: snake oil like in 1991.

ATLASCUB wrote:U.S/NATO response leak.

https://elpais.com/infografias/2022/02/respuesta_otan/respuesta_otan_eeuu.pdf

To save folks time: snake oil like in 1991.

It is not snake oil, but a document of unconditional surrender .

Who's unconditionally being asked to surrender?

As for the moron that knows best to stay away lest he be ridiculed like in the past... they've already done enough damage, including forcing migration both West and East of Russian speaking, Russian ethnic people , while poisoning Russians to kill other Russians. They also occasionally give approval for killing beyond the contact line for sport, with the Kremlin watching, crying about violations and the OSCE.

The fear of sanctions is worth more than the life and blood of Russians for a long time now. Get the memo. The Kremlin sent it out a long time ago. Ask Strelkov about the bright Kremlin men running the show... idiot. He was there on the ground, directing efforts. Disillusioned as any man naturally would be. What are the real clowns doing if not getting drunk on Mercousis analyses from Britain, or clowns like Pepe, the Saker and the rest of the clown car...

Toughen up buttercup. "Natzo!!!" "Natzo!!!"

I guess Americans will push to the limit and accept Ukraine in NATO regardless. What then? There is no way out. Army Iran and North Korea I guess, but hype aside, nobody scares of that, they all know that they are perfectly accountable states.

Hannibal Barca wrote:I guess Americans will push to the limit and accept Ukraine in NATO regardless. What then? There is no way out. Army Iran and North Korea I guess, but hype aside, nobody scares of that, they all know that they are perfectly accountable states.

Have you been asleep this entire time?

Americans and Brits said multiple times they can't help Ukraine in a conflict.

So where did you see they will join NATO?

I swear, you guys just make things up and say it's facts, all the while, facts provided is ignored.

"We will not move an inch East."

"But they said they won't make Ukraine part of NATO".... "it's different this time"....

Irreparable brain damage.

They don't have a plan... they don't intend to.

Intention and plans change. Like robbing candy from a kid.

And yet we all remember when Russian forces were moving towards US base in Syria, they fled with food still on their table.

Or missiles from Iran dropping on US bases. Or Iranian navy taking captive of US forces that went into it's waters. Or how US guys in Georgia killed US quickly said they were Mercenaries acting on their own.

The claim that they promised they won't move east was a response to Russia. The "we won't defend Kiev" was an answer to each other in NATO command and Ukraine, not Russia. Just reported.

So context is real damn important, but you aren't smart nor capable understanding that. Hence why I have you on ignore since you started.

miketheterrible wrote:And yet we all remember when Russian forces were moving towards US base in Syria, they fled with food still on their table.

Or missiles from Iran dropping on US bases. Or Iranian navy taking captive of US forces that went into it's waters.  Or how US guys in Georgia killed  US quickly said they were Mercenaries acting on their own.

The claim that they promised they won't move east was a response to Russia. The "we won't defend Kiev" was an answer to each other in NATO command and Ukraine, not Russia. Just reported.

So context is real damn important, but you aren't smart nor capable understanding that.  Hence why I have you on ignore since you started.

You don't have me on ignore. Hence you read the post and previous posts. And you supposedly added me to ignore the second you made a poopy mess of yourself with your economics "knowledge" - throwing tantrums left and right, and holding a grudge ever since. Angry little man... take some vodka. If you take a dimwit, and break it in half, we get a close approximation to your intellectual capacity. But don't let that get over your head.

Legally binding, security guarantees on paper of NATO not expanding = zilch, nada, niet.

Ask Putin and Lavrov.... after all they're the idols of the cult.... what have they said about the response? An odd appeal to authority considering I don't trust either men but I know you all certainly do.

Unless they got a different document than you did... or misinterpreted and in that case I'm sure they'll welcome your interpretation services to clarify on the wording and meaning...

It's gonna be fun reading the spin doctors propaganda on it - from both sides. Assured that the sheep on either camp will be as clueless as ever - as intended.

Even if they had received a "legally binding" security guarantee (on what court, the U.N? ) it would be worth a broken penny. But they didn't even get the paper lie.

ATLASCUB wrote:It's a simple equation.

It does not matter if Russia can destroy Ukraine. It's a given.

What matters is how costly (politically, economically, militarily) and complex the operation to do so becomes.

The more Ukraine beefs up and transforms as an anti-Russian bulwark, the harder it's to achieve a quick, clean victory and push for any meaningful change on the ground... the more it will take to even settle for just saving the Donbass.

Simply destroying the armed forces of Ukraine by lobbying stand off missiles from Russia and Belarus as a "magic solution" serves no meaningful purpose without ground forces clearing the ground for good  - that's just a pipedream based on nothing but fairytales.

Now, you could pay attention to folk like Igor Strelkov, the type of individual that actually went on the ground to do the dirty work the Kremlin bureaucrats massively bungled up "negotiating", the clean up guys if you will (whatever your opinion of the man) or pay attention to propagandist aka your favorite Russian "analysts" sitting somewhere in Britain or Florida writing babble and carrying water for the Kremlin. Does not matter to me. I know the Koolaid is better for most than reality.

It's gonna become a Cuba 2.0 conundrum at this pace. Wherein at some point the U.S had no choice but not to invade, cause the Soviets beefed up Cuba so much... to invade would have been a quagmire of Vietnam proportions, with worse political consequences being so close to home. It wasn't because the U.S gave a shit about their word to Khrushchev or because they didn't have an overwhelming military advantage.

It's a bulletproof trap at this stage. The U.S can pick and chose the perfect timing for them.... whether to do so this February (as the stars align with the Olympics), or postpone to beef up Ukraine, and clear some uncooperative assets and minor political obstacles inside Ukraine and the EU. Either way... they own the initiative, they chose the time and date.

What can Russia do to regain the initiative and change the calculus? So far it has been completely unable to do so.

Russia beefs up their military presence around Ukraine borders to say "we mean business"? U.S beefs up the sanctions regime threat to "full-break up with the West level" and ships more military hardware. Ukrainian oligarchs and its puppets, knowing the stakes, up the negotiating price for becoming a sacrificial lamb (the Biden-Zelensky saga is nothing but a negotiation on price - more IMF funds/more aid from the U.S/EU etc).

What else can the Kremlin do next? Cuba and Venezuela.... lmao... that's a nonstarter, already debunked by any serious analyst and Medvedev himself. It's not up to Russia and the asking price will be too high (for Kremlin standards).

Wunderwaffe? Zircon's and Kinzhals... . Dear leader and his cadre are fucked. They know what must be done but they don't want to for fear of the repercussions. As Strelkov said.... grasping at anything they believe could make it all go away. It's not going away. To the contrary the stakes of the standoff and of potential conflict with Ukraine rise the more the years pass.

You're making things more complicated than they are

If the Ukrs invade the Donbass and breach the Minsk agreements - the offensive will be checked and the DNR/LNR will simply advance up to the line of the administrative divisions with the other Ukrainian regions.

If Kiev shells the Crimea, so then all artillery units doing the shelling and those commanders giving the orders will be taken out

There is no need to go in anywhere.

And in the aftermath of such a failure, Zelensky's regime will receive more than one uncomfortable question from its own people, just like Saakashvilli did in Georgia.

https://www.rt.com/russia/548066-moscow-washington-security-talks/

Russia & US commit to further talks on security guarantees


I thought it wouldn't be allowed to be dragged out. Official response already done and leaked.

Then again beggars can't be choosers. Gotta settle for what you get. The "other stuff"....

flamming_python wrote:
You're making things more complicated than they are

If the Ukrs invade the Donbass and breach the Minsk agreements - the offensive will be checked and the DNR/LNR will simply advance up to the line of the administrative divisions with the other Ukrainian regions.

If Kiev shells the Crimea, so then all artillery units doing the shelling and those commanders giving the orders will be taken out

There is no need to go in anywhere.

And in the aftermath of such a failure, Zelensky's regime will receive more than one uncomfortable question from its own people, just like Saakashvilli did in Georgia.

Assuming that it goes according to your plan and scenario of events, assuming no hiccups, no unexpected x or y variables....

Russia will get sanctioned to hell and back for responding. NS2 will probably die off. And Zelensky replaced with another amenable puppet ready to do Washington's bidding... including future provocations.

But back to reality. It's never that simple.

ATLASCUB wrote:Who's unconditionally being asked to surrender?

As for the moron that knows best to stay away lest he be ridiculed like in the past... they've already done enough damage, including forcing migration both West and East of Russian speaking, Russian ethnic people , while poisoning Russians to kill other Russians. They also occasionally give approval for killing beyond the contact line for sport, with the Kremlin watching, crying about violations and the OSCE.

The fear of sanctions is worth more than the life and blood of Russians for a long time now. Get the memo. The Kremlin sent it out a long time ago. Ask Strelkov about the bright Kremlin men running the show... idiot. He was there on the ground, directing efforts. Disillusioned as any man naturally would be. What are the real clowns doing if not getting drunk on Mercousis analyses from Britain, or clowns like Pepe, the Saker and the rest of the clown car...

Toughen up buttercup. "Natzo!!!" "Natzo!!!"

There is something different now.


Russia doesn't care about the gas sales to Europe, no contract renewal for Ukraine, and the whole mess about NS2 getting to the direction of "if the EU doesn't want heat and light during winther thhen it is they choice".


The behaviour and pose of Russia changed, and the USA/UK become more hysterical than any time in the past.


Looks like something is brewing in the background with a China cooperation , and the whole EU/US decreased its importance.


China playing catch up with the USA at the moment, randomly shutting down ports with USA bound shipments, forcing up losses and increase of intrest rate in the USA.

At the same time both Russia and China started to get to the level when they can control the sea lanes.


If we turn around ,and say Russia force back the NATO to Western europe, and China get into they control Taiwan ,and probably SK/Japan .

It would turn the table, and the USA would be forced to make bets on the loosing sides of loaded dice.

Either the above, or the Russians / Chinese simply become stupid overnight.

Make your choice.

ATLASCUB wrote:

Russia will get sanctioned to hell and back for responding. NS2 will probably die off. And Zelensky replaced with another amenable puppet ready to do Washington's bidding... including future provocations.

But back to reality. It's never that simple.

And without NS2 how the EU will keep the lights on ?

At the moment the energy prices went up fivefold in Europe, and many industry simply shut down.


If there would be a Russian energy sanction against the EU then that would be end of the play for Europe.


Then need to choose between USA and freezing in the winter, or Russia and not freezing in the winter.


There is a 180 (Pi) change in the behaviour of Russia regards of energy export, like from now on they don't care about the gas sales - they have better markets now.