The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

We have already seen what Russia will do if some idiot neighbour thinks they can shell neighbouring autonomous regions with which they and Russia have peace agreements with... except this time around I would say the so called rebel forces are probably much better trained and equipped and motivated than the Ukrainian conscripts Kiev wants to use.

They can talk about using drones, but that works both ways, I would think supporters of the rebels have interests in testing new drone systems as well as anti drone weapons and equipment too and this would be an honourable cause in which to test.

Regarding NSII a lot of clearly upset people think once it is up and running that the pipes through the Ukraine will be immediately shut down.

The Orcs have done a lot of stupid and evil things so I understand the merit of what these people are suggesting but at the end of the day it is the customers in the EU that pay the transit fees, not Russia, so if the EU wants to fund the Ukraine via gas transfers through their territory, why should Russia object.

The NSII and SS are practical solutions to the problems of the Ukraine stealing transit gas meant for other customers... I am surprised the Russians haven't been able to goad the Ukrainians into doing something really stupid like saying they don't need gas transfers and blocking their own pipes.


The best solution for Russia would be western sanctions that cancel the deal... Russia could then rip up the last few sections of pipe and divert the pipes to Kaliningrad.

If the Ukraine steals gas or blocks transfer of gas to customers to spite Russia then Russia can just convert the gas into LNG and ship it... Germany and the EU that were getting piped gas can pay more for LNG.... south Stream can be extended to supply the countries that are not being assholes about all this... in fact I would drop the price for piped gas for a period just as a reward for not being a bunch of .

Russia has the capacity to jam Ukrainian communications and navigation, and interfere in all sorts of ways without sending any troops in country.

They have a range of anti aircraft weapons they can supply to remove any air power threat from Kiev and HATO.

They have a new array of drone sized weapons they can deliver and they have all sorts of recon equipment to find ammo dumps and fuel dumps being used by the Ukrainians.... artillery is not much use with no ammo.

These are things they can do that wont kill a lot of Ukrainian conscripts, but will make them much more vulnerable to rebel forces...

What I find hilarious is that Kiev calls these people terrorists.... compared with even the Kurds, there are no attacks in the rest of the Ukraine protesting what Kiev is doing in these regions... essentially they are terrorists in the sense that South Ossetia and Abkhazia were terrorists... in other words they aren't... they just want to be left alone.

Russia should build a new air base and naval facilities with submarine pens in Cuba. Seriously. Why Russia hasn't done this yet i dont know.

Waste of money and resources at the moment because they have no real use for it... but a decent modern EW base would be interesting along with an 8,000km range OTH radar with 270 degree angle coverage would be able to look into a huge swath of US territory... would be very useful...

But what I really think they should do is move the national rubbish dump in Cuba to three sides of the US encampment at Guantanimo... and start importing rubbish to stack there... lots of bio waste too that stinks... The people who serve there will need to wear masks longer than anywhere else.

Donbass today: Kiev switched to terror of the DPR and LPR, Ukrainians sabotage the call to the Terbats

Donbass, April 7. Ukrainian troops fired at the DPR with heavy mortars. The military enlistment offices of the Luhansk region have failed the campaign to form territorial battalions. Weapons are missing from the advanced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The latest news from Novorossiya is in the FAN review .

Operational environment

Over the past day, the Ukrainian security forces carried out eight attacks on the settlements of the Donetsk People's Republic in the Mariupol and Donetsk areas of defense. Small arms, armaments of infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers of various types and mortars of 82 and 120 mm caliber were used.

The shelling resulted in damage to several residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. In the Luhansk People's Republic, two shelling of settlements - Golubovskoye and Zolote-5 - was recorded with the use of small arms and weapons of infantry fighting vehicles and grenade launchers.
In the Luhansk region, military registration and enlistment offices form terbats

Kiev is actively preparing for war. This is evidenced by both the intelligence data of the army corps of the DPR and LPR, OSCE reports, and the decisions of representatives of the Ukrainian authorities. But by no means all the events are taking place according to the plans of the military-political leadership of Ukraine. For example, the recent decision to create territorial defense battalions in the regions of the country in the Luhansk region met with rejection among the local male population, according to the data obtained by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the LPR from residents of settlements controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As the FAN correspondent was told at the Center for Public Relations of the Luhansk law enforcement agency, the hotline received a message about the sabotage by residents of the region of measures to recruit men for the territorial battalion. Men en masse refuse to provide the documents required by the military enlistment offices for registration. And collectives of some enterprises in full force sabotage the instructions of the military. The Luhansk informant reports that Kiev's campaign to form territorial defense battalions in the Luhansk region can be considered a failure.

American "night lights" and weapons disappear from the Armed Forces of Ukraine

While the Ukrainian command is preparing for offensive actions, replenishing the warehouses of missile and artillery weapons, fuel and lubricants and ammunition of advanced units, ordinary military personnel are no less efficient in selling weapons, ammunition and special army equipment, the People's Militia of the LPR reports.

An inspection of the higher headquarters revealed in the 2nd battalion of the 92nd separate brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine the loss of several Kalashnikov assault rifles and more than 2 thousand cartridges. In the 1st battalion of the same military unit, it was revealed that five American-made AN / PVS-14 night vision devices, transferred by the United States to the Ukrainian army for "effectively repelling Russian aggression", were found to be absent.
Kiev launched an operation to destabilize the situation

An analysis of the events of recent weeks allows us to conclude that Kiev has begun a full-scale terror of the population of the Donbass republics. So, on the eve of the explosion of an unexploded Ukrainian ammunition, a civilian of the village of Zaitsevo, born in 1956, was wounded. On Tuesday, two teenagers in the Slavyanoserbsk region of the LPR were blown up by an explosive device, one of them was killed. Three days ago, in Luhansk Nikolaevka, a civilian received multiple shrapnel wounds from ammunition dropped from an unmanned aerial vehicle of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

As a result of the dumping of ammunition from a Ukrainian drone, on April 2, a five-year-old child died in the village of Aleksandrovskoye, DPR. And two weeks earlier, a Ukrainian sniper shot and killed a 71-year-old pensioner in western Donetsk. On Tuesday, in the center of Donetsk at the entrance of an apartment building, a civilian man was injured as a result of an explosion. In addition, more and more reports began to appear in combat reports about the destruction of civilian infrastructure by Ukrainian troops - power lines, water supply facilities and just residential buildings.

All of the above facts are documented by the law enforcement and security agencies of the republics, the evidence base in most cases testifies to the purposeful actions of the Ukrainian security forces, which indicates the presence of appropriate orders in the forward units of the Ukrainian army to destroy civilians and civilian infrastructure. It is likely that by such actions Kiev switched to the tactics of intimidating the civilian population of the republics in order to destabilize the internal situation in the DPR and LPR. This tactic is also a tool for provoking retaliatory actions and acts of retaliation from the Donbass military, which can also be used by the Ukrainian side to accuse the republics at the beginning of the war.

Author: Nikolay Romanenko specially for FAN from Donbass

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If Ukraine attacks Donbass: What should be Russia's reaction?

Svobodnaya Pressa continues to publish translations by authors from alternative Western media. This is far from the kind of propaganda that is printed in CNN, New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times and other "authoritative" media resources. If you are interested in learning more about these authors, you can take a look here.

I will express my own opinion in a short format:

1. Russia must intervene within a few hours after any Ukrainian attack, because leaving the LDNR forces alone will lead to excessive losses of the LDNR. Yes, they can probably counter it very effectively, but the cost can be very high. Russia can help without such massive loss of life.

2. Already at an early stage of the operation, Russia needs to “block” the airspace over the theater of operations (at least in the operational depth of Ukraine) and officially declare a “no-fly zone”.

3. Russia must strike at the entire operational and even strategic depth of Ukraine, because the armed forces of the Ukronazis must be disorganized and beheaded. Key officials of the Ukronazis must be eliminated in the same way as was done with the Wahhabis in Chechnya and Syria.

4. Russian forces should stop at or near the current line of contact for a number of reasons, including (i) the fact that Russia has no moral obligation to the Ukrainian people, which must free itself, rather than wait for Russia to do so; ii) that Russia does not need a lengthy “counterinsurgency”; iii) that Russia did not destroy Ukraine and should not be asked to pay for its restoration; iv) that if Russia inflicts a serious enough defeat on the Ukronazi forces, the country will still collapse.

5. The LDNR forces, however, must move as far as they deem necessary to establish a permanent international border (whether recognized or not - it does not matter) between the LPR and the rest of Banderastan. Russia should support the LDNR forces with the help of "fire maneuvers", electronic warfare, reconnaissance forces and means, airspace control and special operations.

6. It is necessary to destroy the entire Ukrainian navy and air force (no matter how symbolic and funnily tiny they may be) - including their supporting infrastructure. The Nazis must be disarmed - as was done with the Saakashvili regime in 2008.

7. While it is unlikely that the Nazis will attack Crimea or try to break through the rest of the Russian-Ukrainian border, Russia must be prepared to fully repel even a major attack in these areas.

8. If any uprisings take place in cities such as Mariupol, Nikolaev, Odessa and others, Russia should not intervene openly, but it can use its significant EW and cyber warfare capabilities to hinder the work of local Ukronazi authorities.

9. All Russian coastal defense radars and ships of the Black Sea Fleet must switch to targeting mode in order to make it clear to any ship in the Black Sea that its lifespan is measured in minutes and depends entirely on the goodwill of Russia. The same applies to airspace control near Russian airspace.

10. Last but not least, Russia should announce a complete cessation of all exports of goods from Russia to Ukraine (including energy). Let them suffocate without the goods of the "aggressor".

Author: Andrey Raevsky (published under the pseudonym The Saker ) is a well-known blogger in the West. Was born in Zurich (Switzerland). Father is Dutch, mother is Russian. Served as an analyst in the Swiss Armed Forces and in the UN research structures. He specializes in the study of post-Soviet states. Lives in Florida (USA).

Translated by Sergei Dukhanov.

Published with permission from the author .

https://tglkmvqosetvf3vb3q36c5jw54--svpressa-ru.translate.goog/war21/article/294794/?utm_source=warfiles.ru

Will 10 thousand volunteers stop Ukraine in Donbass?

The number of volunteers wishing to defend Donbass has increased in recent days against the background of the aggravation of the situation in the region, including among the State Duma deputies. This was announced on the air of the Soloviev Live channel on YouTube by the heads of the DPR Denis Pushilin .

“There are a lot of appeals, and from the guys, there are even from the deputies of the State Duma, who say that just 'count right away, we will be with you.' This instills positive emotions and the understanding that we are not alone - not within the framework of some states, but within the framework of human relationships, ”he said. “Some are already asking where exactly to sign up,” added Pushilin.

It is doubtful that State Duma deputies will go to the trenches of Donbass. However, there can hardly be any doubt that many ordinary Russians will indeed come to defend the republics, as it was in 2014, when the war had just begun. However, now there will be clearly fewer applicants, since then many believed that it would be possible to defend, at least, Donbass within the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as a maximum - the whole of Novorossia. Today, many are disappointed and do not really believe that they will be allowed to win any significant victories over the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

One way or another, you can be sure that there will be volunteers. But can they somehow influence the course of the war? And how many of them will there be in reality? Earlier, the military correspondent Yuri Kitten announced to the Free Press the figure of 10 thousand people. The same figure was called by the head of the Ural branch of the Union of Donbass Volunteers Maxim Khopin . Where did they get these numbers? And why such confidence in Pushilin's words?

- In this case, we are not talking about volunteers at all, and not even about their number, - the historian, publicist, permanent expert of the Izborsk club believes Alexander Dmitrievsky .

- Ukraine and its western masters once again make it clear that the defeat of the Donbass republics is not at all included in Russia's plans: if you climb up, you will feel the burning gusts of the "northern wind"! For it is not for this that Russia distributes its passports to the residents of the republics so that they become refugees.

"SP": - Will Russia really need to openly intervene?

- Donbass is not Transnistria, cut off from the whole world, where you really have to break through the Ukrainian or Moldovan territory. Four hundred kilometers of the Russian-Donbas border is quite a sufficient window for the "north wind", so it will be easier to pump up "muscles" for the DPR and LPR militias in the shortest possible time and bring the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the next "boiler".

"SP": - It seems that the West is just waiting for this in order to accuse Russia of aggression and are deliberately leading to this ...

- The West, as usual, is in its repertoire, and if they want to accuse Russia of aggression there, then we are not the first. As the story with the same ill-fated Malaysian Boeing shows, they know how to concoct accusations out of nothing, they will assign the functions of investigative bodies to the investigative agencies, and all the arguments presented by us, based on a well-grounded evidence base, will categorically not be taken into account.

- I do not exclude the arrival of a certain number of volunteers in Donbass, although it should be noted that the situation is not as favorable now as in 2014, - says Mikhail Aleksandrov , an expert at the Center for Military-Political Research of MGIMO, Doctor of Political Sciences .

- Then in Russia there was a national upsurge, "Russian Spring". But this impulse, thanks to the thoughtless and irresponsible policy of the Kremlin, evaporated. It is difficult to revive it again. In the Donbas and in Russia, the indistinct and half-hearted actions of the Russian authorities have caused strong disappointment, enthusiasm faded. People reason like this: “Last time we fought, we hoped to liberate Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and possibly a number of other regions of Ukraine.

But our offensive was stopped for the sake of relations with the West, the Minsk agreements were imposed on Donbass, which actually divided the Donetsk and Lugansk regions into two parts. The rest of these areas were given up to be torn apart by the Bandera Nazis. DPR and LPR were not accepted into Russia. What to fight for now? For the endless continuation of all this burden with the Minsk agreements? In a word, if the Russian leadership does not set a clear goal of the complete defeat of the Kiev regime and the liberation of the entire southeast of Ukraine, then one cannot count on a large number of volunteers.

"SP": - Do volunteers influence anything at all? And what does their number matter?

- I believe that even 10,000 volunteers will somehow fundamentally change the balance of power in favor of the DPR and LPR. Ukraine has concentrated a 70,000-strong group against Donbass. Its mobilization reserve is at least 100-150 thousand people. Therefore, no volunteers will save Donbass. They could have played a decisive role in 2014, when the offensive of the Lao PDR militia effectively led to the collapse of the Ukrainian defense. It was then that it was possible to completely resolve the Ukrainian issue, only with the help of volunteers. And the cost of such a decision in human lives would be minimal.

However, now it will not be possible to defend the Donbass without the entry into battle of the regular troops of the Russian army.

By going to the Minsk agreements, the Kremlin made a strategic mistake. He allowed Ukraine to rebuild its army and prepare well for war. Now you will have to pay a much higher price to protect Donbass. This is the price that the Russian people will have to pay for the Kremlin judo and "cunning plans."

"SP": - Will there be "volunteers" on the other side? Or mercenaries? Who, besides the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Battalions, will have to fight?

- The Ukrainian side does not need volunteers. They have a serious advantage in manpower. They, of course, will not refuse the help of Western instructors and PMCs that are already operating in the front-line zone. In the event of a full-scale war, the number of such military specialists will certainly increase. And they will be able to significantly affect the effectiveness of the actions of the Ukrainian army, if the armed forces of Russia do not enter the battle.

Therefore, Moscow is left with a difficult choice, either to surrender Donbass, or to enter the war. But the surrender of Donbass will mean the end of the Putin regime, since then Crimea will follow, for which you will still have to fight, albeit in a less favorable strategic situation.

Therefore, apart from military assistance to Donbass, the Kremlin has no choice. The question is, what kind of assistance will there be: stop the offensive of the Ukrainian troops again and not go further? Then the situation will be constantly reproduced, thousands of Russian people will die without a clear result. Another option is the decisive defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the creation of Novorossiya, access to Transnistria, the capture of Kiev and the punishment of Ukrainian war criminals.

The West, of course, will accuse Russia of aggression if it does so. But this will have little effect on anything. Even a total boycott of Russia by the West cannot do much harm to us. Russia lived in blockade for decades, and until the 18th century had only minimal economic ties with the West. And then, by the way, the Russians lived better than in the West. The only ones to suffer are the oligarchy, which has economic interests in the West. However, when the survival of the Russian nation is on the map, all such interests should be ignored, and the dissatisfied should be punished in the most decisive manner.

https://tglkmvqosetvf3vb3q36c5jw54--svpressa-ru.translate.goog/war21/article/294614/?lbq=1

Yugo90 wrote:I'm really courious how many soldiers can russia send in stopping kiev Nazi battalions....they have got a few thousand in there bases in Syria, NK, Tajikistan, SO and Abkhazia....So i don't think they could send more than 100.000 troops to war...

My best guesstimate would be that Russia could, without compromising coverage against other areas, mobile the following:

Western Military District - 83,000
Southern Military District - 61,000
Central Military District - 33,000

However numbers don't tell the whole story and you must remember force multipliers such as technology, training, air superiority, etc.