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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:02 pm

    ".... Lachin pass agreement is suicide. If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented......"

    Why suicide?   If objection is because narrow pass not militarily defensible position, against a future surprise attack, that will cut Artsakh off , then yes perhaps. But even in this case, the buffer around the pass can be extended, in exchange for land in Artsakh, owed to Azeri citizens, displaced after the war. Armenia gaining in land around the pass. Alternately if objection is about the indefensibility of Artsakh, as a whole in Azer. Then solution could be to exchange it for Nakichevan. They are approximately the same size.

    ".... There will be ethnic cleansing if the Turks have any say in it. Quite who will be moved in is a different issue. The advance party already there?......"


    The bulk of the fighting is around Artsakh. Rather than Azer lost territory. This tells us that motivation behind Azeri offensive, is not regaining lost towns. But driving out Armenians. Ethnic cleansing. So it seems Turks are pulling the strings, as you said. Removing Armenia from map.
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:45 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

    If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

    All the rest is non-sense.

    Current setup is completely unsustainable

    Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it

    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Wed Oct 14, 2020 9:56 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

    If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

    All the rest is non-sense.

    Current setup is completely unsustainable

    Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it


    Well in theory, also the position of Azerbaijan is unsustainable. That territory was only assigned to the azeri ssr because of some decision from the soviet leadership. As they decided to declare independence from soviet union, some parts of their territories can also declare independence from them.

    Or, if autodermination is not allowed in this case the land should go to the owner before the Soviets rule, the russian empire...and the legitimate successor state to both the Russian empire and the soviet union is the Russian Federation

    kvs likes this post

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:44 am

     Only later to let Turks through territory of Armenia.
    Russia may take E. Georgia to get land corridor to Amenia, killing 2 birds with 1 stone: destabilizing Tbilisi, preventing NATO boots there & in Amenia in large #s, & improving Armenia's defences.
    Nagorno-Karabakh Fighting Escalates, Toll Rises
     
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     2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 30 Blkbullet1 Azerbaijan Bought $77m of Arms From Turkey Month Before Fighting
     2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 30 Blkbullet1 Nagorno-Karabakh and Mounting US/EU Pressure on the Kremlin
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 30 Blkbullet1 Kremlin Calls for Immediate Halt to Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 30 Blkbullet1 Armenia, Azerbaijan Tensions Rise Amid Claims of New Attacks
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 30 Blkbullet1 Azerbaijan Says Hit Missile Launch Sites in Armenia
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 30 Blkbullet1 Putin Expresses Concerns to Erdogan About Middle East Fighters in Karabakh Clashes
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 30 Blkbullet1 Nagorno-Karabakh Says Death Toll Among Its Military Rises to 555 Since Start of Conflict
    https://iz.ru/1073848/elnar-bainazarov/knut-i-preniia-chem-chrevato-turetckoe-predlozhenie-po-karabakhu


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:10 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add links)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:55 am

    This needs to be sorted out properly without the threat or use of violence, which is why the current situation is bad and useless, because no matter who wins it will only be a matter of time before the other side does the same thing and is better prepared and takes what they thinks is theirs by force... which just means more blood more anger more death and desperation and solutions that are short term at best.

    A mother who sends her son off to fight and die so she can move back to where she lived when she was a child is a bitch.

    Everyone wants to make their mother smile and be happy, but what that mother really wants is for things to go back to the way they were 30 years ago and no war can make that happen.

    Odds are good that after 30 years her home is no longer there and the life she remembers wont come back even if they take the territory at the cost of 1,000 lives.

    People are more important than land... how many sons is she prepared to lose to stand on the same soil she did all those years ago... and how is it going to feel when the politicians talk and end up giving most of it back in negotiations anyway...
    Maximmmm
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    Post  Maximmmm Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:29 am

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

    If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

    All the rest is non-sense.

    Current setup is completely unsustainable

    Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it


    Well in theory, also the position of Azerbaijan is unsustainable.  That territory was only assigned to the azeri ssr because of some decision from the soviet leadership.  As they decided to declare independence from soviet union, some parts of their territories can also declare independence from them.

    Or, if autodermination is not allowed in this case the land should go to the owner before the Soviets rule, the russian empire...and the legitimate successor state to both the Russian empire and the soviet union is the Russian Federation

    The conflict is a great example to teach people the old maxim that war is politics by other means. The Azeris took a loss in the 90s, were willing to settle things via some compromise, but then in time became richer and more powerful than their neighbor, so they went back to try and fix the old losses.
    Armenians had a good chance for a political solution before the Azeris felt confident they had the military edge, now they will have to bargain for less.
    Regular
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    Post  Regular Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:25 pm

    So what's new? Only few percent of NK is being taken over. I am only worried about drones damaging/destroying artillery pieces of Armenians as they are truly a game changer in the defence.
    It seems that there are thousands of dead Azeris and hundreds of turkemens. But they care little about losses.

    Am I right to say that Azeris lost the steam and this will drag on? They will continue with drone campaign and Armenians should probably will be getting Manpads en masse to balance that out
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:52 pm

    But are those drones effectively destroying artillery ? A gun is made out of steel and resist the heat of its own fires.

    Those drones fire tiny missiles and never touch directly the guns.

    Vehicle mounted artillery is different because they always destroy the under armored vehicle and the gun vab't be used then. But fixed artillery is quite hard to destroy.
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:56 pm

    Regular wrote:...Am I right to say that Azeris lost the steam and this will drag on? They will continue with drone campaign and Armenians should probably will be getting Manpads en masse to balance that out

    News updates have become few and far between so I'd say they have gone back to static WW1 style warfare

    Azeris will probably keep what they took this time because Armenians don't seem to have what it takes to push back or escalate

    So unless Turks deliver another decade worth of hardware in couple of months I'd say that both sides will lick their wounds for several years and give it another go down the road when Azerbaijan restocks again (Armenians better not flub it by then because this time they cruised solely on luck)


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    KoTeMoRe
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:11 pm

    Maximmmm wrote:
    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

    If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

    All the rest is non-sense.

    Current setup is completely unsustainable

    Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it


    Well in theory, also the position of Azerbaijan is unsustainable.  That territory was only assigned to the azeri ssr because of some decision from the soviet leadership.  As they decided to declare independence from soviet union, some parts of their territories can also declare independence from them.

    Or, if autodermination is not allowed in this case the land should go to the owner before the Soviets rule, the russian empire...and the legitimate successor state to both the Russian empire and the soviet union is the Russian Federation

    The conflict is a great example to teach people the old maxim that war is politics by other means. The Azeris took a loss in the 90s, were willing to settle things via some compromise, but then in time became richer and more powerful than their neighbor, so they went back to try and fix the old losses.
    Armenians had a good chance for a political solution before the Azeris felt confident they had the military edge, now they will have to bargain for less.

    I don't think that Azerbaijan ever wanted to settle as they continously rejected every proposal (from Russia especially). Similarly Armenia felt protected by the region and Russia. This fundamentally changed from 2005 when Azerbaijan started its shopping spree.

    However in this case it is not a Azerbaijan Armenia issue.
    This time is a Turkey Armenia issue. As i have stated before. The most decisive actions, the most sensitive advances AZ forces have are beyond Armenia's reach in Turkey.
    The continuous ressupply from Israel and Turkey over Artsakh is also fully illegal based on the very SAME UNSC resolutions Azeris are claiming to uphold.

    The problem is that Armenia's strategic situation is bad in general, but could be saved if Russia levelled the playing field. This so far has been done through mainly veiled threats and statements and private diploacy. This doesn't deter Turkey, so while you are right about the timeline revese of this issue the problem isn't limited to the issue itself.

    And this is why the conflict is worrisome and we're getting slowly to the point where Russia,by not acting before will be forced to either put its personnel at harm's way or use very heavy handed means to make the Azeris stop in order to for Turkey to get the message.

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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:13 pm

    Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

    Kalashnikov say its drones are very cheap so 1000 of them would be worth buying.

    Armenia produces its own drone but it seems they don't have a fast production rate abd keep them for all out war.

    They also need some more buk which proved to be very good at destroying tb2 drones in Syria. They can get them for cheap if they buy directly to RuMOD instead of rosoboronexport. No need for buk m3. Basic buk-m1-2 will be good against azerbaijan.
    KoTeMoRe
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:17 pm

    Regular wrote:So what's new? Only few percent of NK is being taken over. I am only worried about drones damaging/destroying artillery pieces of Armenians as they are truly a game changer in the defence.
    It seems that there are thousands of dead Azeris and hundreds of turkemens. But they care little about losses.

    Am I right to say that Azeris lost the steam and this will drag on? They will continue with drone campaign and Armenians should probably will be getting Manpads en masse to balance that out

    Azeris are finally letting the Turks being busy with the follow up offensive.
    They are trying to get Fuzuli blockaded and by pass Hadrut.
    Next week should be decisive, wrt to first inhabitted settlements.

    I think we will see TB-2's up in the sky trying to get past the peaks therefore being exposed to Manpads. As for artillery, in hill tops mortars are as interesting as the more conventional artillery; the best solution would be flatbed mounted 122mm guns and mortars in order to hide the vehicles and relocate faster.

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    KoTeMoRe
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:50 pm

    Isos wrote:Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

    Kalashnikov say its drones are very cheap so 1000 of them would be worth buying.

    Armenia produces its own drone but it seems they don't have a fast production rate abd keep them for all out war.

    They also need some more buk which proved to be very good at destroying tb2 drones in Syria. They can get them for cheap if they buy directly to RuMOD instead of rosoboronexport. No need for buk m3. Basic buk-m1-2 will be good against azerbaijan.

    Kub has only a 70 km range and has very primitive jamming defences.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:16 pm

    Buk not kub.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:31 pm

    It will depend on US stand. Biden / Harris will very likely recognize NK and host military base in Armenia. Next year we could see Belarus and Armenia ditching Russia for US and hosting US military bases considering Putin has not been all that friendly to Lukashenko and Pashinyan. Long time Putin ally Evo Morales has already been ousted by CIA last year.

    US has been making former Soviet countries like Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan turn against Russia and surrounding Russia with enemy countries.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:44 pm

    Isos wrote:Buk not kub.

    The SUAV is called Kub.

    You are talking about the SUAV.
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    Post  kvs Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:19 pm

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-weapons-sales-azerbaijan-witnessed-huge-surge-just-armenia-conflict

    Turkey and Azerbaijan planned this conflict and instigated it.

    I have total contempt for douchebag nazionalists who claim land based on "finders keepers, losers weepers" "morality". Trotsky's
    and Lenin's gift of NK to the Azeris was never legal and moral. Bolshie slimeballs traded people like they traded cattle. Other examples
    of their crime against humanity level of border drawing include South Ossetia and Crimea. There are also other time bombs in
    Central Asia where they and Stalin engaged in criminal territorial crave ups.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:23 pm

    Aliyev says they will take all of NK by force if Pashinyan does not accept territory for peace deal

    https://twitter.com/alarabiya_brk/status/1316735256469344261?s=21
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:39 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Isos wrote:Buk not kub.

    The SUAV is called Kub.

    You are talking about the SUAV.

    I though you answered about armenian AD.

    Yes it is primitive but those israeli harop are not better. Neither is the tb2. But none of the two countries has the jamming capabilities to protect against them. So they will be good enough.
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    Post  nomadski Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:54 pm

    First I hear that the Rats kill horribly the Armenian residents in Hadrut. A town well inside Artsakh. Meaning there are holes in Armenian defence. Not enough men. Thinly spread.

    Next I hear that Armenians defending against advance by Azeri forces in Jibrail front. Abandoned Azeri Town. That they should give back.

    This tells me Armenia needs to carry out strategic retreat from all Azeri occupied lands. Pull back the forces to protect populated Armenian towns in Artsakh. Keeping land bridge. And border open with Iran.

    Someone said that Turkish and Usrael drones will be coming over the mountains. So why not put manpads on high points of mountains. Together with more portable and smaller calibre AAA.  That will more easily reach higher altitude. And will not provide as big a target. Manpad protecting AAA, and allowing greater volume of fire.

    Defending against advancing armour, may be more effective by using Anti - Tank.  You need less training and infrastructure. May cost less also. Faster deployment. Or just MINE  mountain Roads.

    https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/maps/d9g/Azerbaijan/


    Looks like some high  mountains  6000 to 10,000 feet. Harop max altitude 15000 feet. You need AAA to reach from 5000 to 9000 feet. ZPU or DSk.


    Last edited by nomadski on Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:47 pm; edited 2 times in total
    KoTeMoRe
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:30 pm

    Isos wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Isos wrote:Buk not kub.

    The SUAV is called Kub.

    You are talking about the SUAV.

    I though you answered about armenian AD.

    Yes it is primitive but those israeli harop are not better. Neither is the tb2. But none of the two countries has the jamming capabilities to protect against them. So they will be good enough.

    Russia has better to offer like the Lancet but China can provide saturation with cheap and plentiful drones as well. What the problem is however is that someone needs to do something about that E-7 Awacs at the Turkish border.
    This should be priority N°1.

    If possible shoot the thing down and risk a spat with Turdogan but at this point this is happening.


    http://johnhelmer.net/gas-pains-for-gazprom-azerbaijan-attacks-russia-in-bulgaria-greece-italy/

    So...
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:31 pm

    nomadski wrote:First I hear that the Rats kill horribly the Armenian residents in Hadrut. A town well inside Artsakh. Meaning there are holes in Armenian defence. Not enough men. Thinly spread.

    Next I hear that Armenians defending against advance by Azeri forces in Jibrail front. Abandoned Azeri Town. That they should give back.

    This tells me Armenia needs to carry out strategic retreat from all Azeri occupied lands. Pull back the forces to protect populated Armenian towns in Artsakh. Keeping land bridge. And border open with Iran.

    Someone said that Turkish and Usrael drones will be coming over the mountains. So why not put manpads on high points of mountains. Together with more portable and smaller calibre AAA.  That will more easily reach higher altitude. And will not provide as big a target. Mapad protecting AAA, and allowing greater volume of fire.

    Defending against advancing armour, may be more effective by using Anti - Tank.  You need less training and infrastructure. May cost less also. Faster deployment. Or just MINE  mountain Roads.

    https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/maps/d9g/Azerbaijan/


    Looks like some high  mountains  6000 to 10,000 feet. Harop max altitude 15000 feet. You need AAA to reach from 5000 to 9000 feet.

    Harpy is limited to 4500m/ HAROP 3500m.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:16 pm

    kvs wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-weapons-sales-azerbaijan-witnessed-huge-surge-just-armenia-conflict

    Turkey and Azerbaijan planned this conflict and instigated it.  

    I have total contempt for douchebag nazionalists who claim land based on "finders keepers, losers weepers" "morality".   Trotsky's
    and Lenin's gift of NK to the Azeris was never legal and moral.    Bolshie slimeballs traded people like they traded cattle.   Other examples
    of their crime against humanity level of border drawing include South Ossetia and Crimea.   There are also other time bombs in
    Central Asia where they and Stalin engaged in criminal territorial crave ups.  

    It was completely legal back then....difference between you not liking something and making shit up vs the facts.

    Also, you clearly do not know a thing about the history Lenin had nothing to do with NK it was Stalin.

    Stalin did this to try and build friendly relations with the nationalist Turkey at that time (circa 1920's) and Stalin wanted to win support for communism across Asia and appeasement of Muslim Azerbaijan would be welcomed in the countries bordering the new Soviet republics.
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    Post  par far Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:08 pm

    Isos wrote:Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

    Kalashnikov say its drones are very cheap so 1000 of them would be worth buying.

    Armenia produces its own drone but it seems they don't have a fast production rate abd keep them for all out war.

    They also need some more buk which proved to be very good at destroying tb2 drones in Syria. They can get them for cheap if they buy directly to RuMOD instead of rosoboronexport. No need for buk m3. Basic buk-m1-2 will be good against azerbaijan.


    Armenia had a chance to buy drones and other equipment from China but Pashinyan said no, probably from pressure from US.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:21 pm

    I used to be a huge fan of Putin but I believe that age got the better of him. His last years are very mediocre. The prospect of staying all the way to 2032 is very worrying.

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