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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:51 pm

    slasher wrote:
    Armenian wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Hold ur breath. Saakashvili lost his job & is now wanted by the authorities in Tbilisi; the same fate may await Pashinyan in Erevan.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB2m0Ci0skw

    Compering Saakashvili with Pashinyan? Are you serious?

    In my opinion Pashinyan is even more Pro-Russian than Serj Sargsyan. That stupid misinformation is done exactly by Soros kinda people to drive Armenian and Russians away from each other.

    Hope people coming with that BS is aware of that.


    It's not at all propaganda. That's a cop out. There is an undeniable pro-western leaning among a sizeable proportion of the Armenian population. The 2018 protests had an outright "get out Russia" element. The country, like all others once part of the Soviet sphere, is divided along which path to take for the future. But one cannot serve to masters as the saying goes. In Armenia's case, they are literally caught between a rock and a hard place, with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Only Russia can guarantee their security.

    Unfortunately, many there don't see it that way. It is incumbent on Armenia to prove it is an ally of Russia, not the other way around. You quite correctly pointed out some examples (re: Ukraine, Syria) where Armenia showed its friendship. But, as @kvs keeps saying, you cannot sit on two chairs. Playing the balancing game will go both ways. If it's to be a commercial or transactional type relationship like what Russia has with Germany or even Turkey, no problem. An alliance is much deeper than merely relying on superficial or past commonalities or shared histories.

    That said, I do sympathize with that proportion of the country that do consider Russia an ally and share close ties. Unfortunately, I can't see Russia investing geo-politically too heavily anywhere right now, including Armenia, only to have some itself be made a mockery of in some domestic colour revolution that sells itself out to the West. Russia has to adapt it's geo-political outlook and posture to these new realities. Alliances can no longer be assumed or taken for granted as long term, and Russia should only give as much as it gets. This is becoming quite evident in observing Russia's approach to what is happening here in the Caucasus.
    Russia shouldn't be like the US and impose itself on others, there's no need to. Let the US overextend and overspend itself into oblivion. Who wants to join Nato or whatever can go. In Armenia's case, good luck with that, because even if that were to happen, there is no way the West can guarantee any sort of security in that neighbourhood. Russia already has an aspiring member right on its southern border and is managing that quite skilfully. I don't see the big fuss over Armenia's possible shift, apart from the fact that it's virtually dead on arrival. If that what the country decides, fine by me. But if the distinct majority and the government in any country is united in a commitment to an alliance with Russia, then i highly doubt Russia would be so deliberative in its reactions, as it with Belarus for example as well.

    I agree it's ultimately not our business what alliance or under whose wing the Armenians go, in the interests of their own security. NATO, or towards Iran. Especially if Russia can't impose some sort of stability on the south Caucasus.

    But really Russia should impose this stability, and it should hold up its obligations to Armenians. It's in our interests as well, we don't need NATO on our south flank nor Iran and Turkey taking their rivalry into the Caucasus. Such a cynical policy of 'what will you give me for it' is Putin's way of eventually poisoning our relations with all ex-Soviet states.

    Because it's not just the ruling parties, clans, etc... that matter, as Putin & co. seem to think given that they are such oligarchs themselves.

    The people themselves have a memory, especially in such a situation as Armenia's.

    Russia should do whatever's neccessary, twist whoever's arm, make whatever public statements needed, keep quiet about whatever needs to be quiet - but all for the sake of attaining a ceasefire there as quickly as possible and agreeing some sort of peace plan that the Armenians can accept, if it would mean lasting guaranteed peace.

    I disagree about the 2018 protests in Armenia. That's it's internal affair, who they vote out, bring in, etc... same goes for Belarussians. Russia shouldn't interfere.
    As for the anti-Russian aspect, I only saw a few small groups with such posters. I'm quite sure 95% of the protestors weren't out there to make some sort of political statement or voice any sort of opinion on internal affairs, simply stand against the corruption of their own elites, whether provoked by Soros or not.

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    par far


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    Post  par far Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:53 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:
    par far wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:I see Iran supply Yasser suicide drones and large caliber sniper rifles and Kornet missiles to Armenia later this month. These are used very effectively in Yemen and decimated KSA and UAE ground forces.


    Why would Iran do this? They have good relations with Turkey and decent with Azerbaijan.

    Iran and Turkey are historic rivals. Plus they see Azerbaijan as a threat to their territorial integrity considering Azerbaijan may claim Iranian Azeri land as rightfully belonging to Azerbaijan.


    Iran and Turkey are close right now. Iran, Turkey and Qatar has a some what of a alliance. So Iran is not going to do anything major.

    You are just a troll, so I won't respond to you anymore.


    Last edited by par far on Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
    medo
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    Post  medo Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:55 pm

    https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:00 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:
    slasher wrote:
    Armenian wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Hold ur breath. Saakashvili lost his job & is now wanted by the authorities in Tbilisi; the same fate may await Pashinyan in Erevan.
     
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB2m0Ci0skw

    Compering Saakashvili with Pashinyan? Are you serious?

    In my opinion Pashinyan is even more Pro-Russian than Serj Sargsyan. That stupid misinformation is done exactly by Soros kinda people to drive Armenian and Russians away from each other.

    Hope people coming with that BS is aware of that.


    It's not at all propaganda. That's a cop out. There is an undeniable pro-western leaning among a sizeable proportion of the Armenian population. The 2018 protests had an outright "get out Russia" element. The country, like all others once part of the Soviet sphere, is divided along which path to take for the future. But one cannot serve to masters as the saying goes. In Armenia's case, they are literally caught between a rock and a hard place, with Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east. Only Russia can guarantee their security.

    Unfortunately, many there don't see it that way. It is incumbent on Armenia to prove it is an ally of Russia, not the other way around. You quite correctly pointed out some examples (re: Ukraine, Syria) where Armenia showed its friendship. But, as @kvs keeps saying, you cannot sit on two chairs. Playing the balancing game will go both ways. If it's to be a commercial or transactional type relationship like what Russia has with Germany or even Turkey, no problem. An alliance is much deeper than merely relying on superficial or past commonalities or shared histories.

    That said, I do sympathize with that proportion of the country that do consider Russia an ally and share close ties. Unfortunately, I can't see Russia investing geo-politically too heavily anywhere right now, including Armenia, only to have some itself be made a mockery of in some domestic colour revolution that sells itself out to the West. Russia has to adapt it's geo-political outlook and posture to these new realities. Alliances can no longer be assumed or taken for granted as long term, and Russia should only give as much as it gets. This is becoming quite evident in observing Russia's approach to what is happening here in the Caucasus.
    Russia shouldn't be like the US and impose itself on others, there's no need to. Let the US overextend and overspend itself into oblivion. Who wants to join Nato or whatever can go. In Armenia's case, good luck with that, because even if that were to happen, there is no way the West can guarantee any sort of security in that neighbourhood. Russia already has an aspiring member right on its southern border and is managing that quite skilfully. I don't see the big fuss over Armenia's possible shift, apart from the fact that it's virtually dead on arrival. If that what the country decides, fine by me. But if the distinct majority and the government in any country is united in a commitment to an alliance with Russia, then i highly doubt Russia would be so deliberative in its reactions, as it with Belarus for example as well.

    Putin is too buddy buddy with Erdogan for Armenia's liking. Putin betrayed Assad and sold northern Syria to Erdogan for S-400 deal. This is why Armenia will join NATO for protection from Turkey / Azerbaijan.

    It's diplomacy, economics, and sometimes mutual interests too - if it means stirring the pot within NATO.

    But that doesn't mean that Putin will tolerate Erdogan extending his little empire (NATO along with it) into Russia's backyard.

    I mean Russia intervened in Syria, that's a lot further away from Russia than Armenia.

    As for everything else, buddy buddy and so on - it's all just words.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:00 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:Obviously the NK is only justification for invading and annexing Armenia proper. Erdogan has repeatedly stated Armenia is land stolen from Turkic peoples. Russia won't do anything when Turkey invades Armenia because of Putin's relation with Erdogan. Therefore Armenia will join NATO for protection from Turkey.

    I guess this is another one of Ultron's / ultimatewarrior's accounts I will have to add to my ignore list...


    I suspected this was ultimate warrior, some of the mods should start banning his I.P. address.

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    Tai Hai Chen
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:05 pm

    par far wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:
    par far wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:I see Iran supply Yasser suicide drones and large caliber sniper rifles and Kornet missiles to Armenia later this month. These are used very effectively in Yemen and decimated KSA and UAE ground forces.


    Why would Iran do this? They have good relations with Turkey and decent with Azerbaijan.

    Iran and Turkey are historic rivals. Plus they see Azerbaijan as a threat to their territorial integrity considering Azerbaijan may claim Iranian Azeri land as rightfully belonging to Azerbaijan.


    Iran and Turkey are close right now. Iran, Turkey and Qatar has a some what of a alliance. So Iran is not going to do anything major.

    You are just a troll, so I won't respond to you anymore.

    Iran opposes Turkey and Qatar's backing of Islamists in the region. That's why Iran backs Hezbollah against them in Syria. Iran does not trust Turkey. Turkey and Azerbaijan have plan to annex Azeri land in Iran into Azerbaijan.
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:07 pm

    medo wrote:https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.

    The Azeri-Turk army seems to be nothing without its flying killer robots and pro-Turkish Syrian terrorists; the later of which just seem to be serving as cannon fodder here literally just to reveal Armenian ground and artillery positions, in the same manner that Azerbaijan has employed converted unmanned An-2s to reveal Armenian air defense positions
    Maximmmm
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    Post  Maximmmm Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:15 pm

    One interesting item has been the arrest of spies in Armenia since the start of the conflict.
    Early on we had somebody in the upper ranks of the military and now it's some foreigners (https://lenta.ru/news/2020/10/04/spion/)
    I haven't heard of anything similar on the Azeri side. Could mean there's more spies in Armenia, could be they're getting caught more often, who knows. Interesting though.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:16 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    medo wrote:https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.

    The Azeri-Turk army seems to be nothing without its flying killer robots and pro-Turkish Syrian terrorists; the later of which just seem to be serving as cannon fodder here literally just to reveal Armenian ground and artillery positions, in the same manner that Azerbaijan has employed converted unmanned An-2s to reveal Armenian air defense positions


    It's showing Azeri has taken the time to prepare for this war Armenia however seemed to have it's head up an ass.

    Tho the Armenian's up until a few days ago was doing well, the tide does seem to be shifting.

    Can Armenia stabilize and recapture or will it bleed out slowly we shall see.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:21 pm

    The TB2 drones are shock and awe at first but over time the adversary adapts. It was used successfully in Syria at first and then in Libya then lost its effectiveness as the adversary started using MANPADS. Same happens in Armenia. And now with Canada talking about banning the sale of EO to Turkey, a TB2 lost is a TB2 that can't be replaced since Turkey has no technology to make EO.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:22 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    medo wrote:https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.

    The Azeri-Turk army seems to be nothing without its flying killer robots and pro-Turkish Syrian terrorists; the later of which just seem to be serving as cannon fodder here literally just to reveal Armenian ground and artillery positions, in the same manner that Azerbaijan has employed converted unmanned An-2s to reveal Armenian air defense positions


    It's showing Azeri has taken the time to prepare for this war Armenia however seemed to have it's head up an ass.

    Tho the Armenian's up until a few days ago was doing well, the tide does seem to be shifting.

    Can Armenia stabilize and recapture or will it bleed out slowly we shall see.

    Armenia bought Su-30SM to counter drone. It's very effective.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:31 pm

    Azeris attempted offensive, but they haven't made it deeper than the boarder line really. Armenian heavy artillery does make the difference so far. This is me, judging from the map.

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    Regular
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    Post  Regular Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:37 pm

    lyle6 wrote:
    Maximmmm wrote:
    Mountains are just a mess. Reminds me of all those yemeni vids; ambush after ambush.
    Question is how many of those are syrians and libyans, since while cannon fodder dies, the political pressures on the azeri side remain low.
    Quite a bit, though it appears the Azeris have been pressing the minorities into the frontlines to make up numbers. They'd eventually have to send in their own soldiers, but I doubt they'd be any more effective than these rabble. The past flare ups had Azeri special forces leading the way, but they got chewed up for their trouble.

    Most of the dead shown by Armenians are just Azeri kids in the infantry. They recently showed 30+ dead with their passports exposed so Azeris can't hide dead in the statistics.
    This was just from one engagement.
    I think they are the ones doing the dying, those mercinaries are useless in this war.. no urban environment to play shoot and skoot.
    There were already plenty of dead Syrians without them even getting into close engagements.. driving white pickups in narrow roads where you can't maneuver is a suicide.. Hills have eyes and few arty salvos usually solve this refugee crisis.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:15 pm

    Regular wrote:
    lyle6 wrote:
    Maximmmm wrote:
    Mountains are just a mess. Reminds me of all those yemeni vids; ambush after ambush.
    Question is how many of those are syrians and libyans, since while cannon fodder dies, the political pressures on the azeri side remain low.
    Quite a bit, though it appears the Azeris have been pressing the minorities into the frontlines to make up numbers. They'd eventually have to send in their own soldiers, but I doubt they'd be any more effective than these rabble. The past flare ups had Azeri special forces leading the way, but they got chewed up for their trouble.

    Most of the dead shown by Armenians are just Azeri kids in the infantry. They recently showed 30+ dead with their passports exposed so Azeris can't hide dead in the statistics.
    This was just from one engagement.
    I think they are the ones doing the dying, those mercinaries are useless in this war.. no urban environment to play shoot and skoot.
    There were already plenty of dead Syrians without them even getting into close engagements.. driving white pickups in narrow roads where you can't maneuver is a suicide.. Hills have eyes and few arty salvos  usually solve this refugee crisis.

    Are we now calling Turkish and GCC Jihadists transplanted in to Northern Syria and now recently transported to Azerbaijan, Syrians now? Rolling Eyes Virtually no real Syrians support Turks in any form or fashion....These 'Syrians' are as Syrian as any one of us are Kryptonian.

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    Post  Mindstorm Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:39 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    medo wrote:https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.

    The Azeri-Turk army seems to be nothing without its flying killer robots and pro-Turkish Syrian terrorists; the later of which just seem to be serving as cannon fodder here literally just to reveal Armenian ground and artillery positions, in the same manner that Azerbaijan has employed converted unmanned An-2s to reveal Armenian air defense positions



    The situation is even more simple : for each battlefield calsh that is recorded in video there is 30-40, very often of much greater scale and with way more material and human losses involved, that happen without any video recording of the action

    90% of the losses in this conflict, like in almost any conflict between comparable opponents, happen at short to short-medium range, very often well within LOS, and obviously without any video involved ; therefore fatally the role and impact of some systems (above all UAV and UCAV with theirs by-default video equipment) in the PR campaign of each side and unfortunately also some scarcely proficient military analyst more interested in propose a "trendy" subject that in providing a serious representation of the situation, become largely over-represented.


    Knowing how much losses on the total really produce all the UAV UCAV attacks (all having theirs video) and their own losses ,even in an area with very scarce and outdated AD systems, would truly disappoint several enthusiasts: several of the attacks by part of suicide drones or the lightweight missiles that the bigger drones can carry, in particular against more heavily armoured units often produce only minor damages not even interfering with the continuation of the vehicle mission or damages repaireable within few hours (repalcement of engine/track hit or some external vectronic element ) and this is exactly the reason for which almost always those videos of UAV attacks stop just after the hit Wink
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    Post  ahmedfire Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:46 pm

    Tai Hai Chen wrote:The TB2 drones are shock and awe at first but over time the adversary adapts. It was used successfully in Syria at first and then in Libya then lost its effectiveness as the adversary started using MANPADS. Same happens in Armenia. And now with Canada talking about banning the sale of EO to Turkey, a TB2 lost is a TB2 that can't be replaced since Turkey has no technology to  make EO.

    They are depending on WESCAM MX-15D , they have their own projects but don't match with the Canadian one .

    Against selling WESCAM products to Turkey

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 16 Ejcanz10
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:50 pm

    Mindstorm wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    medo wrote:https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1312827153285820416

    Artzakh army capture Azerbaijani positions.

    The Azeri-Turk army seems to be nothing without its flying killer robots and pro-Turkish Syrian terrorists; the later of which just seem to be serving as cannon fodder here literally just to reveal Armenian ground and artillery positions, in the same manner that Azerbaijan has employed converted unmanned An-2s to reveal Armenian air defense positions



    The situation is even more simple : for each battlefield calsh that is recorded in video there is 30-40, very often of much greater scale and with way more material and human losses involved, that happen without any video recording of the action

    90% of the losses in this conflict, like in almost any conflict between comparable opponents, happen at short to short-medium range, very often well within LOS, and obviously without any video involved ; therefore fatally the role and impact of some systems (above all UAV and UCAV with theirs by-default video equipment) in the PR campaign of each side and unfortunately also some scarcely proficient military analyst more interested in propose a "trendy" subject that in providing a serious representation of the situation, become largely over-represented.


    Knowing how much losses on the total really produce all the UAV UCAV attacks (all having theirs video) and their own losses ,even in an area with very scarce and outdated AD systems, would truly disappoint several enthusiasts: several of the attacks by part of suicide drones or the lightweight missiles that the bigger drones can carry, in particular against more heavily armoured units often produce only minor damages not even interfering with the continuation of the vehicle mission or damages repaireable within few hours (repalcement of engine/track hit or some external vectronic element ) and this is exactly the reason for which almost always those videos of UAV attacks stop just after the hit Wink  

    I agree. And the selective UAV vids don't show the times they missed either, nor when they're shot down.

    The most telling vids are the ones of mass corpses after a territory has been taken, neither side seems to miss the opportunity.
    Together with just seeing how much ground the Azeri side have taken. After a week, doesn't seem like they've taken much, and their UAV inventory is no doubt getting depleted, as is their stream of Syrian mercs.

    As for casualties; I suspect most of them are from artillery not from small arms
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    Post  par far Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:57 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:Azeris attempted offensive, but they haven't made it deeper than the boarder line really. Armenian heavy artillery does make the difference so far. This is me, judging from the map.

    What map are you looking at Hannibal?
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    Post  par far Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:01 pm

    ahmedfire wrote:
    Tai Hai Chen wrote:The TB2 drones are shock and awe at first but over time the adversary adapts. It was used successfully in Syria at first and then in Libya then lost its effectiveness as the adversary started using MANPADS. Same happens in Armenia. And now with Canada talking about banning the sale of EO to Turkey, a TB2 lost is a TB2 that can't be replaced since Turkey has no technology to  make EO.

    They are depending on WESCAM MX-15D , they have their own projects but don't match with the Canadian one .

    Against selling WESCAM products to Turkey

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1 - Page 16 Ejcanz10


    If Turkey is willing to pay from it, they will get it somewhere else. This is why it is really important to be self sufficient.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:30 pm

    Armenian Smerch retaliating against Turkic invasion

    https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1312851883195850753
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    Post  lyle6 Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:40 pm

    Azeris finally achieved some gains in the southeast. Took them long enough. They claim to have captured the town of Jabrayil and are close to Fuzuli. Both towns are uninhabited, having been depopulated of their Azeri populations and are relatively flat agricultural lands. However without occupying the commanding heights both territories are going to be deathtraps for anyone who tries to hold them - a lesson many a Syrian rebel and their Turkish handlers ought to be familiar at least.

    https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/en/2020/4-october-turkish-ministry-of-defense-after-the-villages

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sun Oct 04, 2020 11:57 pm

    https://twitter.com/islamicworldupd/status/1312849120307171330?s=20


    Hobo Army is baaaaaack.
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    Post  Tai Hai Chen Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:02 am

    Large caliber sniper rifles is one department Armenians lack in. I can see Syrians and Iranians supplying these to Armenians to hurt their enemies the Turks.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


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    Post  JohninMK Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:21 am

    For those of you old enough to remember Baghdad Bob Smile

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:28 am

    Sometimes Twitter serves up a goodie.

    ZOKA
    @200_zoka
    ·
    1h
    What a great precision of the Armenians. They managed to insert single Smerch right in front of the main door with inscription  Laughing



    Hikmet Hajiyev
    @HikmetHajiyev
    · 2h
    Proof of Armenia's delibarate and targeted attack against critical civilian infrastructure of Azerbaijan. #Missile landed in close proximity of energy block in #Mingachevir. But did not explode. Peace enforcement must continue to bring #Armenia to its senses and responsibility


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    Serge
    @Zinvor
    · 1h
    Why does it look like you drilled a hole into otherwise perfect asphalt but the hole was too big so you put a piece of wood in it so it can be held up.

    Meanwhile Azerbaijan is the one destroying entire residential areas and hitting civilian infrastructure in Artsakh.



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