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    2020 Beirut explosions

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:14 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    kvs wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/leave-you-are-all-killers-lebanese-protesters-storm-multiple-government-ministries

    The riots have started.   Big step to mission accomplished.


    People are rightfully pissed because of a huge fuck up done by their government it is only natural they would lash out at the ones who where in charge of preventing shit like this.

    There is no US or Israeli operation to overthrow the government, simply people pissed off at their government.

    Blame it on whoever you want, facts say you are wrong. There isn't a thread of proof it was done on purpose.

    You are conflating two situations.

    There is indeed no evidence that Israel was involved in the explosion or that it was done on purpose, plenty of expectation but no proof.

    There is however plenty of proof that there has been years of activity by the US and Israel against a major part of Lebanese society, Hezbollah, which they try to portray as a terrorist organisation as opposed to political party/militia. To say that there is now no active operations by them in Lebanon to exploit this situation in driving wedges between groups to their benefit is surely wide of the mark. It is virtually a given that they will be doing that and a major strategic failure if they are not.

    The biggest problem they have in exploiting it is that Lebanon is divided up into areas of influence based on religion/politics/finance and the port and the destroyed part of Beirut do not belong to Hezbollah. They were/are too big a cash cow to be given to the poorer elements of their society. This is where Hezbollah's strategy, which seems to be unique in the ME, of being a religious political party that accepts other religions, like Christians, with a leader respected across the ME, could start to significantly help them.

    Ironically it could be Hezbollah that comes out of this a winner as they are not seen as part of the main corrupt elements of society that have been creaming off, into offshore accounts, the country's wealth for decades. An activity wholeheartedly supported by the West's bankers, France especially, and something that any aid coming in from the West will no doubt try to maintain.

    Now that much of the opportunity to exploit the cashflows (bribes and commissions) has gone it is going to be interesting to see how those who hold the keys to power, the Lebanese Army Generals in particular, react. If they team up with Hezbollah to impose a new regime the country has a chance. If the current political system is maintained the place is fucked, it didn't work when they had money it sure as hell won't when they don't.

    As to the US sanctions, that is just simply evil.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:45 pm

    To clarify I am saying there was no operation using the explosion to get rid of the government (In terms of having someone set it off), Etc what happened wasn't done by anyone using it as a means to overthrow them.

    Has there been activity sure, just like on the other side there has been activity. Iran etc.

    It's only natural a country would use such an occasion to push for its geopolitical agenda. Russia is no different if something happens that fits them to use they will use it in a heartbeat and they have.

    There is more than just the US and Isreal who have their fingers in the Lebanon honey pot. Giving where Lebanon is located everyone is after something there, So its also wrong to suggest its just the US and Isreal looking to accomplish something.

    I am also not bringing up morals or right or wrong, tho I am sure someone is going to try and put those words in my mouth.
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    Post  par far on Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:37 pm

    Pepe Escobar sums this up perfectly.


    https://www.unz.com/pescobar/who-profits-from-the-beirut-blast/

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Aug 09, 2020 4:16 pm

    Now since possibility of small non-conventional attack, has not been dismissed by having evidence of reliable and impartial survey of site. I say a little more on possibility of fire in a fireworks storage facility next door, causing the event. There is little doubt that there were fireworks, and that they were burning and going off. Also there is little doubt, that the force of these, had not broken the perimeter of building , and therefore could not have broken perimeter of building containing Ammonium. These sheds remained intact, before the Ammonium decomposed. Also from photographs, it is clear that most or all windows were closed. And the material was stored away from windows or walls in places.

    Then I can say, that because the perimeters were intact and windows closed and distance between buildings was about ten meters. And wind was carrying the fire away from second building. That the Ammonium could not be heated significantly above ambient
    temperature. The only other possibility, is that the force of several fireworks hitting a window or through an open window, allowed entry of one or more fireworks. Therefore the heat of firework going off, was the only route for the accident to happen. Excluding all other unknown possible causes.

    I already posted a video about a blow torch, failing to decompose a lump of the material. Is a firework more energetic than a blow torch?  Does it create greater temperature or pressure?

    There are thermodynamic studies of explosive materials. That study the temp produced by electric Arc, around 2000 C, at atmospheric pressure, applied to these. And finding the time to decompose. Are there any for Ammonium Nitrate?

    If we have info that a fire work can cause a run away reaction in a big bag  of the Material, then there is possibility of explosion by accident, can not be ruled out. Otherwise it can. Look at walls of first fireworks building. It remains intact, even after the explosions. Also look at the way material was stored. Not always next to wall or window. Any ideas?

    https://www.mashreghnews.ir/photo/1104535/%D8%B9%DA%A9%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D9%85%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%82%D8%A8%D9%84-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AA

    A simple practical test can be done quickly using commercially available fireworks and Ammonium Nitrate. ( kids don't try at home).

    https://youtu.be/v3KZTae-OPc

    Walls of fireworks intact after both explosions.

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Mon Aug 10, 2020 12:43 am

    Mmmmmmm


    https://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/mp4/Syrie.mp4?_=1
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    Post  par far on Mon Aug 10, 2020 3:57 am

    JohninMK wrote:Mmmmmmm


    https://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/mp4/Syrie.mp4?_=1


    Most experts knew that this was not a accident, this is clearly a coup attempt.

    The homosexual Maron is saying all sort of crap like we are deciding the future of Lebanon.

    This is clearly a coup attempt, best thing for the Lebanese are to unite and fall for the tricks of the west.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:41 am

    Whether the explosion was part of a plot or not is not important... the various interested parties will use this opportunity to get their way and create a coup...
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    Post  nomadski on Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:50 am


    @johninmk

    Good. All possibility should be explored. But truth is very political. Some parties may want to push this as attack, so as to draw region into war, between Usraelis and Arabs. A war they think they will benefit by. Some parties may want to push the " accident" angle. Since they have more at stake economically or are at potential more advantageous position.

    I think it possible to paint this event both ways. According to political interests. Depending on if they prefer war or peace. I also think that local people at least have a right to know. Because it is their life and future. Not external powers.

    Therefore they can carry out own local investigation, to determine cause. As I pointed out, in the case of fire investigation, by doing a simple simulation. In case of a non conventional attack, they can not rely on outside powers. Obviously there is a huge amount of disinformation. So they can :

    ( 1) Determine the shape and size of crater. This will give good guide about size and depth of blast. It should conform to 400 ton surface blast. If not, then additional non conventional charge used. Comparison tables available on Internet.

    ( 2) Obtain seismograph from explosion and compare with other conventional blast. In size and yield. Compare also with traces of Nuke blasts. Should not be too difficult. Available from Internet.

    ( 3 ) Recover material from site and pay independent analyst to study. NGO.

    ( 4 ) Look for trinitite glass from crater. Formed from Nuke blast.

    ( 5) Buy monitoring equipment, and conduct site survey locally.



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    Post  JohninMK on Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:26 pm

    nomadski wrote:
    @johninmk

    Good. All possibility should be explored. But truth is very political. Some parties may want to push this as attack, so as to  draw region into war, between Usraelis and Arabs. A war they think they will benefit by. Some parties may want to push the " accident" angle. Since they have more at stake economically or are at potential more advantageous position.

    I think it possible to paint this event both ways. According to political interests. Depending on if they prefer war or peace. I also think that local people at least have a right to know. Because it is their life and future. Not external powers.

    Therefore they can carry out own local investigation, to determine cause. As I pointed out, in the case of fire investigation, by doing a simple simulation. In case of a non conventional attack, they can not rely on outside powers. Obviously there is a huge amount of disinformation. So they can :


    From their reactions no-one wants war, which is reassuring. No doubt someone will be checking the questions you raise nut whether we will get the results is open to doubt. If perchance it was caused by a weapon the main reactions may well be political/financial rather than military.
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    Post  nomadski on Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:17 pm

    Agree. The Lebanese do not have to go to war to retaliate. As long as there is transparent investigation, apportioning blame. The simple act of exposure, will be devastating for guilty party. So I think Russia and allies should at least not stop this process. And help it along, if possible.

    BTW : I read that clean pure fusion weapons with limited yields can be built now. With more limited yield. But we never know, how advanced some " types" are. Here are some references....

    https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Library/Effects/UndergroundEffects.html

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinitite

    It looks to me, that surface destruction, of silo etc, does not match the size of crater. Must check depth of crater. A deeper impact, would throw material up vertically......
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:23 am

    The amount of explosive material that was supposed to be stored there explains the size of the explosion... you certainly would not need a nuclear weapon to set it all off... you would just need a small detonation inside the explosive material... a simple hand grenade would do it... but any timed explosive device would do... it could be planted weeks in advance... inside the material...


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    Post  nomadski on Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:40 pm

    This may well be true. Irrespective of source of ignition  being fire or firecracker or small charge. And setting aside crater dimensions. Then central problem of yield of material exists. From manufacturer we get 400 tons. From USGS we get 1.1 kiloton. From British radiation expert we get 2.7 kiloton. Also the problem of 3.3 magnitude Earthquake remains. The Russian papers indicate 14 to 100 ton conventional blast needed. But comparative Nuke blasts, produce this at 1 to 3 kiloton. And it is important to know. Not just for people of Labanon. But for future of warfare and security. If NAZTO producing and using " a type" ( for us to know and for you to find out) of tactical " clean" battlefield Nukes, that they may have used in Iraq or Syria, then balance of power changed. They armed the Rats and Saddam with chemical weapons WMD.... Nobody stopped them.....
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:25 pm

    The magnitude is not directly comparable to an earthquake of similar size because the explosion occurred at the surface where seismic waves are not as efficiently generated.

    Again no nuke was used, there is no evidence of that. You personally just want one to have been used.

    tons of ammonium nitrate which is roughly equivalent to 1100 tons of TNT went off which set off seismic sensors. That would happen for any explosion if that size, if you knew anything about science you would not be making these absurd claims.

    You keep pushing these earthquake crap, not even realizing it was on the surface and that it's completely normal for 1100 tons of what amounted to TNT going off. What happened was natural and scientific.
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:27 am

    @ SeigSoloyov

    "....... The magnitude is not directly comparable to an earthquake of similar size because the explosion occurred at the surface where seismic waves are not as efficiently generated.


    But the reports did indicate that this was indeed the case! That explosion registered as 3.3 to 3.5 on the Richter scale. The same scale as Earthquakes measured on. But supposing this was not reported correctly. And this figure related to a measure on other seismic scales. In that case, you may be right. We should not compare to Richter scale.  However we have to compare on relevant scale for Nuclear and Non Nuclear surface  blasts. Only then we can draw comparison of yield. This is a job for seismologist. That is if they are able to report independently.  Telling difference between different waveforms.

    But I am not saying it was an Earthquake. But a surface blast. So the p-waves measuring intensity and reported, will have to be studied. A Nuke blast occurring at same time as large conventional blast, will be masked. So may be difficult differentiating. And your figure of 1.1 kiloton for the material is different to manufacturer of material of 400 ton.

    A comparison can be made with data on mining surface explosions, and recorded energy. Compare to present explosion and recorded energy on ML and MB scales.

    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/mineblast/induced_pde.php

    So even if surface P waves were measured, in Ms scale, then energy is converted to Richter scale or ML scale. So we have 3.3 to 3.5 on ML scale. What is this on Ms scale?  And how does it compare to conventional mining blast on surface of known yield?

    "..... As more seismograph stations were installed around the world, it became apparent that the method developed by Richter was strictly valid only for certain frequency and distance ranges. In order to take advantage of the growing number of globally distributed seismograph stations, new magnitude scales that are an extension of Richter's original idea were developed. These include body wave magnitude (Mb) and surface wave magnitude (Ms). Each is valid for a particular frequency range and type of seismic signal. In its range of validity, each is equivalent to the Richter magnitude...... "

    https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/moment-magnitude-richter-scale-what-are-different-magnitude-scales-and-why-are-there-so-many?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products

    But if so many formulae exist. And exact soil conditions not known. Then there will be margin of error. If margin of error allows for say increase of known yield by another 50 to 100 tons ( with low yield Nuke), then our methods are not accurate enough. And possibility of mini- Nuke is left open, not rejected.


    Last edited by nomadski on Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:28 am

    There is plenty of variation in explosive power from the different types of explosives there are... from black powder and RDX etc.

    If it was a nuclear explosion then it must have been tiny because if the manufacturers say there was 400 tons of explosive material, and the explosive experts talk about a large conventional but small nuclear yield suggests that any so called nuclear trigger did very little, and would be largely useless if it makes that sized explosion when exploding explosives of that sort of weight.

    A nuclear device is totally unnecessary because there was an enormous amount of conventional explosive present... a blasting cap could have had the same effect and be much smaller and lighter and cheaper and easier to hide...

    Using a nuke to make a fibreglass factory explode makes sense but is ridiculous in an explosives storage area.
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Aug 12, 2020 12:56 pm


    What if they needed 1 to 3 kiloton, to make sure Beirut adequately damaged? And that 400 ton was not guarantee to get job done? Then an additional bang would help. The devil is in the detail. If 400 ton figure reliable, and formulae accurate, then the two should agree. Otherwise a margin of error of 2 or more, allowing for 1 kiloton, does not rule out Nukes. Then site survey must be done. Look for clues.
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    Post  Stealthflanker on Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:58 pm

    nomadski wrote:
    What if they needed 1 to 3 kiloton, to make sure Beirut adequately damaged?  And that 400 ton was not guarantee to get job done?  Then an additional bang would help. The devil is in the detail. If 400 ton figure reliable, and formulae accurate, then the two should agree. Otherwise a margin of error of 2 or more, allowing for 1 kiloton, does not rule out Nukes. Then site survey must be done. Look for clues.

    and What if the Beirut explosion was a mere neglect and messy bureaucracy that actually forget that they were confiscating 2750 Tonne of Explosive-risk materials back in 2014.

    Have you considered that possibility too ?
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:42 pm

    @ stealthflanker

    Of course all possibilities must be considered. And I think it will take a multi-disciplinary team, impartial and transparent investigation. Involving the Lebanese as well as NGO and reputable scientists. Most importantly from China and Russia and Iran. Since they face a threat from the NAZTO, trying to blockade the belt and road network to MED.

    Various methods can be used, and yours truly has quickly identified many avenues for study. Among these I mentioned seismograph. Crater depth and shape. Mineral of explosion of trinitite. Radiation locally on site. But also damage to surface structures due to blast vibration and I am sure many more that I don't know about...

    Some investigations can be done locally  by Lebanese themselves. These include simulation of fire conditions, to determine if blast by fire possible. As well as simple study into using commercial fireworks to initiate decomposition. To see feasibility. But also the locals can buy simple equipment and set up explosions on the surface and record data. This can be used to predict larger values. To see if they match. As well as simple Radiation measuring gear, to do site survey. So investigations into causes by fire or fireworks or military charge can all be done locally. But the more difficult task that concern outsiders too, they need help with. I know Iranians have good monitoring in seismology. And experience. This can all help answer the questions.

    Because if NAZTO, secretly using Nukes, then I think it should be made public. They should pay for it. Next time another target with potential explosive power can be hit. Causing much greater damage. And we will be none the wiser for it. An ammo depot, oil depot, fuel or gas Tanker..Nuclear power station .... Can all be victims of " accidents".....or explosions near towns or cities that can not easily be traced, use as psychological warfare...
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    Post  JohninMK on Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:33 pm

    OK guys, this is another video picked up by VT, embedded at the link, of the leadup to the explosions.

    We have some questions now. If we have fake missile videos, they had to have been created by a security agency, Israel for sure, with much of the work done in advance and a network of trolls putting them out.

    Here is why I ask this, we have eyewitnesseses now of a missile from an Israeli plane and, below, the sound of that plane and missile recorded from a Beirut rooftop. When Meissan said this was a new Israeli weapon, he may have been referring to a plane launched suicide drone type weapon or a hybrid glide bomb.

    What we do hear at 1:21 is an F16 (single engine/also seen and identified) enter a dive directly over the target, as heard easily from a rooftop in this audio masterpiece.




    It is not easy to watch knowing whats coming but listen to the sounds. Does it sound real? What do you think and this is not a nuke/no nuke question?

    https://twitter.com/gpduf/status/1293617534428643329

    2020 Beirut explosions - Page 4 ScreenHunter-548-1

    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/08/12/blockbuster-beirut-go-to-121-and-learn-who-fakes-what/
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Aug 12, 2020 11:40 pm

    If it is fake, then NOT most likely done by Usraelis. They would hardly want to point the finger at themselves. Over such a large and horrible attack. Or if so, they would have claimed credit. And they did not. They are much more likely to manufacture a false flag to incriminate the Yanks. To draw in against Iran. So no I don't think it is real. But made for purpose of drawing Usraelis into war with some faction in Lebanon. The original video is genuine I think. One way for image analysts to use algorithmic image processing to identify repeated pixelation, as in doctored images. I think there is enough variation in image to do this. I heard of eyewitnesses too. A court can collect info from residents as well as Radar. But I doubt anyone carried this out openly. With metal planes F16. More likely stealth planes or drones or cruise.........another reason for fake....
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:27 am

    Again they are not comparable, and the information you are talking about doesn't even apply to this situation.

    Again there was more than enough nitrate present to make such a blast and there isn't an ounce of evidence there was any foul play.

    Not from any country on earth, what happened was human stupidity nothing more and yes people can be that dumb.

    There was no plane...nothing was on radar, there was no bomb.

    Sure you might find some people who think they heard a plane or saw one, but the reality is there wasn't.

    Keep looking for excuses.
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    Post  nomadski on Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:02 am

    https://youtu.be/yuN4xirvhHY

    In this fireworks factory explosion, we see that the large amount of smoke and explosion is accompanied  by numerous little explosions of fireworks going off. In fact the large explosion can clearly be traced back to be composed of the smaller fireworks. But in this VT video, there is no such case. We see a small fire in front building, not accompanied by any fireworks. Then suddenly there is huge explosion. Not accompanied by a shower of fireworks, as one would expect. In fact there are only few fireworks visible. Therefore explosion not caused by fireworks. But large enough and in the right place to damage the perimeter of both buildings. But even this large explosion, had not immediately decomposed the material. Funny, since it seems very energetic. Then second explosion occurs in centre of second building. Away from the adjoining perimeters, where first explosion took place. They were in a hurry..........

    https://youtu.be/qX2AGo8-1KI

    Damn fireworks must have been wet or few......
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:01 am

    That is some silly logic.....you are trying to use footage from a completely different situation. To argue it was done on purpose.......Really?.

    Explosions like these are often unique in how they happen and what sets them off, what happened with Mexico will not explain or work for Lebanon it is bizarre I even had to explain this.

    Not to mention, you are now openly ignoring the fact a fire simply spread from the fireworks to the Nitrate which was already explained. No one ever said exploding fireworks set the nitrate off....so you just got caught out lying.

    I will say this again, you personally want it to be foul play so you are clinging to any excuse you can find no matter how silly they are and are now resorting to twisting facts.

    I have no idea why you are so obsessed with hoping someone was behind it, people are dumb and human incompetence simply caught up with them that's all.
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    Post  nomadski on Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:10 pm

    I am not ignoring facts. The " fire",  is a very low key affair. Not much smoke or flames. No indication it spread to second building. The smoke diminishes quickly and dies down. In no way engulfs second building , until after large unitary explosion in first building, shows the first building is on fire in parts . The first blast, despite large size and proximity to second building, does not decompose material  immediately or at all . In order for fire alone to cause decomposition, we need complete immersion for few hours or days. As other examples, I posted earlier indicate.

    The main explosion is also odd, in it's colour. Since  only the pure red colour can happen under fire slow decomposition. But no fire. Army disposal of this material by conventional explosive produces a grey pink colour, of unreacted material mixed with dust and reacted material under influence of demolition charge. But we do not get this either. So if no conventional slow fire or explosive charge, then the reaction caused by other heat source. Decomposing efficiently and entirely, before blast has time to disperse and mix materials.


    https://youtu.be/kJEnfzlR1HY

    And :

    https://youtu.be/bUgjzVtsOfc
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    Post  JohninMK on Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:26 pm

    The French have a Mistrale docked now. I saw a report that the port is now operating at 70% of capacity, doubt that includes grain.

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    Beirut Port ... More French forces arrive, respectively.


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