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    US-Iran standoff 2019-

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:32 pm

    Agree . Unfortunately  we discovered  that the world was not ready for peace . Wars seem to be an inherent human characteristic . Conventional wars , enable at best the survival of the most powerful or wealthy or numerous nations . At worst they leave the world in endless turmoil .

    The decision of Saudi / Yank was based on their assessment of winning  a conventional war . Or at least inflicting the greatest damage . They made a choice . And now we have to make a choice . No two circumstances are equal . In bestowing  harm or benefits . Although  people often talk about choice , it is in reality an illusion .

    In  real life , the " choice " , between options is often very narrow , but nevertheless  it must be taken . So Iranians must decide , what route to take now . To talk about peace now , when they have waged war ?  Or to talk about stopping the war now , when they have waged war ?
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:12 pm

    Look at what happened to Syria and Libya when both were renouncing their old ways and wanted to get closer to the west... the west screwed them over hard...

    There is no point in choosing peace if peace means for Iran what peace means to the US... Iran doing what it is told when it is told... that is why they are so unhappy about Russia and China and Turkey for that matter... they are not doing as they are told like weak countries... ie the EU...
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:51 pm

    Is the Trump Regime Heading for War on Iran?

    Russia & China r now closer than ever on all major issues; they'll make any armed intervention in Iran very costly. Iranians can be supplied via Afghanistan, Pakistan, other C. Asian Stans, & the Caspian Sea.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:00 am

    I wish people realized  and said that war has actually been started against Iran by Trump and neo - con  of military industrial complex . A one sided war , with casualties of Iranian people and world economy of Europe and Asia also . This is a non conventional war of mass starvation of civilians genocide . Iran must stop this war  in best way possible . A conventional war with USA by Iran , will result in greater damage to Iran .  And  less damage to the yanks . Or what they consider repairable and acceptable . Iran can not easily repair or replace this , with sanctions continuing after war also . So a short war , not limiting oil output for more than a few weeks , is acceptable to them .

    Iran will have difficulty in  sustaining a conventional war for a period  of more than a few months . The time period  needed to bring world  ( yank and allies ) to knees , with closing of oil . Therefore the best option for Iran is stop possibilities of conventional war . By going officially  nuclear and showing launch systems too  . And then closing oil by most passive and indirect method possible . Requiring  no invasions or destruction of oil wells or Tankers . This can be done by using mines .

    At this point the choice will come for the yanks  and co . Live or die . They will choose to live . I don't see Iran being able to live with a complete blockade for too long.  The choice will  come for them . Live or die . They will choose to live . So I wait every day to hear about that atmospheric test . And sattelite launch .
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:38 am

    So I wait every day to hear about that atmospheric test . And sattelite launch.
    Atmospheric test will be counterproductive, with radioactive cloud moving over Pakistan, India & China. Underground test will be detected & analysed by the US- they know what to look for from past tests by the USSR, China, France, & NK.
    U'll wait for a very long time. In any case, Iran may get nukes, but w/o ICBMs or SLB/CMs the US will not be stopped from attacking.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:58 pm

    nomadski wrote:I wish people realized  and said that war has actually been started against Iran by Trump and neo - con  of military industrial complex . A one sided war , with casualties of Iranian people and world economy of Europe and Asia also . This is a non conventional war of mass starvation of civilians genocide . Iran must stop this war  in best way possible . A conventional war with USA by Iran , will result in greater damage to Iran .  And  less damage to the yanks . Or what they consider repairable and acceptable . Iran can not easily repair or replace this , with sanctions continuing  after war also . So a short war , not limiting oil output for more than a few weeks , is acceptable to them .

    Iran will have difficulty in  sustaining a conventional war for a period  of more than a few months . The time period  needed to bring world  ( yank and allies ) to knees , with closing of oil . Therefore the best option for Iran is stop possibilities of conventional war . By going officially  nuclear and showing launch systems too  . And then closing oil by most passive and indirect method possible . Requiring  no invasions or destruction of oil wells or Tankers . This can be done by using mines .

    At this point the choice will come for the yanks  and co . Live or die . They will choose to live . I don't see Iran being able to live with a complete blockade for too long.  The choice will  come for them . Live or die . They will choose to live . So I wait every day to hear about that atmospheric test . And sattelite launch .


    How is the situation now in Iran?
    What the public opinion says?
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:51 pm

    Atmospheric test will be counterproductive, with radioactive cloud moving over Pakistan, India & China. Underground test will be detected & analysed by the US- they know what to look for from past tests by the USSR, China, France, & NK.

    I think the idea of an atmospheric test is to show the US they have nukes too, and I suspect if they feel the need to have to test it then Pakistan and India and China were not very helpful (ie did not provide the weapon) so why would Iran care about some fallout over those countries>

    Perhaps that is their diplomatic line... if you (Paki/Ind/China) give us a nuclear weapon then we wont need to test it and you wont get an radiation fallout from testing anyway...

    BTW I wouldn't be so sure about the last part... have you see the US complained that Russia might be testing small nukes in violation of the nuclear testing moratorium... which is super ironic because the US hasn't ratified that one yet anyway and less than a decade ago were talking about their own bunker busting mini nuke weapons...

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:02 pm

    ..the idea of an atmospheric test is to show the US they have nukes too,..
    Pakistan, India & NK didn't do them; why should Iran, which has plenty of mountains, some in the desert, well suited for underground testing? The USGS can detect the tests' seismic waves up in Saudi Arabia, Israel, &/ Afghanistan, if need be.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Jun 12, 2019 1:09 am

    @ Tsavolion

    The whole idea of atmospheric test , is to put on TV .  To  make sure that public in USA knows the full facts . And not allow warmonger risk taker Las Vegas  casino  gambler , to start war . As far as fallout , it can be done  at sea , with wind blowing away from land . As far as underground test , this can be done and disguised as  small earthquakes.  By setting off series of smaller  conventional  loads , followed by low yield .  I think after launch of sattelites  this year ,  hopefully  successfully   ( 90 kg  weight ) . Then nuke test should be done . They need low yeild devices of  sub - kiloton ,  for air defence and EMP . Needing only one or two kg of  HEU .  And say fifty  ICBM of  one kiloton . How much of 20 percent HEU is needed ? About 5 tons . So get this amount first by centrifuge or isotope extraction of small underground reactors . Build warheads . Then do test .

    @ Hannibal Barca

    The view of most Iranians ( as I gather from internet posts ) is far more aggressive and impatient  than the government or media displays publicly . They don't want any JCPOA deals . They want nukes . They are ready to suffer hardships . They are ready for war .
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Wed Jun 12, 2019 3:29 am

    Nice to hear nomadski. Of course note that nukes will make the economic pressure even worse. But I also think that Iran must have nukes.
    Also, I think that Iran is not supported by Russia and China as much as it should.
    starman
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    Post  starman on Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:32 am

    Hannibal Barca wrote: Of course note that nukes will make the economic pressure even worse.

    To say nothing of possible military pressure...

    But I also think that Iran must have nukes.

    Agreed. The world gets on Iran's back while ignoring the big Israeli n-arsenal already in being...If only fairness and objectivity prevailed in the US, it would either disarm Israel too or let Iran have a deterrent.


    Also, I think that Iran is not supported by Russia and China as much as it should.

    Sure, they sure show more spine in standing up to the zionist-dominated US, with its senseless bullying.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:36 am

    By setting off series of smaller conventional  loads , followed by low yield.
    Don't be so naive. Some radiation & isotopes will get in the air to be detected by special US aircraft & sensors rushed there, from outside of the Iranian airspace. They did it with NK. No1 will hide the fact that Iran has nukes. But it won't stop sanctions, just like with those against NK, PRC & Russia. Japanese & German connections:
    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/06/opinion/why-abe-is-stepping-into-the-us-iran-fray/
    https://www.juancole.com/2019/06/germany-keeping-nuclear.html


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:30 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:59 am

    I think that the radiaton from test can be disguised too . That is the way they caught  some Usraeli paratrooper by putting  radiation bait  to be detected from space ,  on the ground . Like fishing . They can put radiation sources all over the land . But I think that designs are available . Computer simulations easier and accurate . Reactors can be hidden , as can enrichment sites . In suitable soil and depths,  the heat created , makes glass shell and encapsulates most radiation . The soil also is barrier .

    The situations you described are not identical . North Korea does not live next door to world oil . Able to blockade the world .  Russia , during cold war , was under sanctions . But not for food . And it was food and Industrial self reliance . So they did not need to go to war immediately . Iran is under food sanctions . And more dependence  industrially . They may need to go to war . Even if not . The yanks can risk a war with Iran much more . Compared to Russia or Korea or PRC  ( if you can't beat them , join them )  since detterence in Iran is questionable .

    With the deterrence,  Iran can bring some pressure . The choice will then be to go nuclear war or to lift blockade  against Iran . The choice is clear . War is avoided . Peace .
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:40 am

    Underground test sites will have above ground roads, installations, & entrances that can be monitored 24/7. Seismic shocks will be detected & measured. Conventional explosives don't need to be tested this way. So even if no radiation/isotopes leak out, it will be clear as day what Iran has after each test.
    No food? Barter oil for it or sell for other currencies & buy it from Iraq, Turkey, India & Pakistan.
    The US hawks would love to nuke Iran regardless. If it gets nukes before ICBMs, it'll give the hawks an excuse to do it before the window of opportunity closes & Iran ceases to be the best nuclear proving ground in the world.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:34 pm

    Agree . Complete secrecy may not be possible  .  But  more important is inability to identify  exact locaton of  underground sites .  Or ability  to take them out , even with earth peneterating nukes.  These days there may be no need for extensive live testing .  All can be done with computers .  Warhead designs can be tested for yeild  in an hour .  The rest of warheads armed , quickly after .

    Agree  that delivery system needs to be made first . And they are doing this right now . Once successful design established . Many ICBM can be made quickly . A conventional war by yank will not stop this process .  Even  a nuke strike . It has nothing to do with politics , who comes and goes .  And as I said , how sure can yanks be that delivery systems of Iranian nukes , have not been put in position , close by ,  already ?

    With blockade that is in place , no trade can be done . Irrespective of payment method . Everyone who trades with Iran is  sanctioned .

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/10/27/raytheon_sothoc_sub_uav/

    OR SIMILAR LOAD DROPPED EARLIER .
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Jun 12, 2019 6:53 pm

    I'm sure the US knows what's going on with Iran missile program no less than with NK & Pakistani 1s. Testing must be done of triggers, nukes & miniaturizing warheads takes time.
    Trade can be conducted overland & the Caspian Sea by small/fake companies not subject to sanctions.
    Iran has the strategic location, lots of oil/gas, at odds with Israel & the Saudi Arabia & UAE, while w/o strong Russian support, just like with Iraq in 1991. The hawks on both sides of the Atlantic think that they have more to loose by not bombing Iran.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:31 pm

    Also, I think that Iran is not supported by Russia and China as much as it should.


    Russia and China and Iran is like UK and US and the Soviet Union just before WWII... not really friends as such an not a huge amount in common really.

    But the invasion of most of Europe by Germany and the threat of UK invasion by Germany and suddenly the UK was feeling very isolated and vulnerable and keen to find as many big powerful friends as it could find... for a while it forgot all its hatred for its large european land rival of the Soviet Union and all it saw was a country that was big enough and stubborn enough to take on Germany on equal terms and not lose. When Germany declared war after the Japanese attacked the US at Pearl Harbour, the UK realised it was going to win...

    After the war the friendship was no longer needed by the UK and US so they dropped the Soviets like a hot rock.

    There is a similar relationship between China and Russia and Iran... they all feel the threat of the US but have no reason to fully trust each other has their back.

    Russia and China are moving together because they realise each one alone will be vulnerable, but with the combination of technology which in many ways they compliment each other, and war fighting experience and skill... which you could argue the Chinese lack but Russia has in abundance... not to mention the enormous Chinese population which on its own could sustain the Chinese economy but also the Russian one too even if no one else in the world would trade with either country, then you start to see that cooperation between the two countries makes a lot of sense...

    If they can make it work they create a power centre that other countries can attach to and grow from without the petty rules and restrictions the west likes to put on its non aligned trading partners to stop them developing and growing and becoming independent.

    If the Russians and Chinese can get things going and other countries can grow and develop they will make the centre stronger and more powerful... the west is actually rather weak because of its fixation of centralisation... it is too america focused... and America uses tools like NATO to stop cooperation between the EU and Russia or China which limits the growth and potential of the EU... which is exactly what the US wants... it doesn't want a rival... NATO without the US is nothing... and that is the way they want it... an expensive dumping ground for US military equipment... buy it or you are out of the club... Turkey...

    I'm sure the US knows what's going on with Iran missile program no less than with NK & Pakistani 1s.

    I am sure the US intel are very professional, but they are working for retards who demand evidence to prove something whether it is true or not and don't tell me anything that contradicts what I want... don't tell me Saddam has no WMDs... tell me he has them ready to deploy in 45 minutes based on third party reports of Uranium yellow cake from Africa...

    Half of the intel the US acts upon comes from people who are defecting who know exactly what the US wants to hear and they will say that whether it is true or not.

    I am an Iranian scientist and I don't want to get shot by Mossad so if you give me a nice cushy job at JPL or NASA with a 500K per year salary and a nice big house for my family (excluding my mother in law) and I will tell you that Iran has made 7 nukes and is just waiting for an excuse to show them to the world... the locations of the weapons are under my mother in laws house, the place she works during the day, the place where she does yoga, and the church where she prays... it is all underground... you can't see it, but it is there...
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:00 pm

    Even w/o the nuclear/missile issues, the US has others like Iran's hostility to Israel & Saudi Arabia, support for Hezbollah/Syria gov./Yemen rebels, theocracy similar to Taliban, violations of human rights, killing of dissidents, threats to oil exports, meddling in Afghanistan, friendly with Russia & Turkey (that they r losing by the day), & generally not being subservient since 1979.
    Iran in its present form is a torn on the US side that should be removed once & for all.
    NATO without the US is nothing...
    US-Canada-UK-Iceland bloc will emerge & serve the Anglo-Saxons in the event of NATO dissolving:
    We may be witnessing the last days of NATO and the alliance


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:44 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:47 am

    @ Tsavo lion

    I think the hawks as you say , are always for war . They always win by war . They don't loose anything . They sit  in the Bahamas , sipping  cocktails , counting  their money . While American soldiers die . And US  looses legitimate influence and markets .

    Regarding removing Iran , as a Thorn , from America's side . I agree . All the yanks have to do ,  is remove their Imperialistic presence  from region and extricate  themselves  from the Thorn .

    This latest Tanker incident in Gulf of Oman , has two possibility  . Either it was Iran or it was the yank alliance false flag  operation . But if it was the yanks alliance , then they are not taking advantage of it . They show that  they can not go to war . They have started a blockade by picking up the phone . But a blockade is not a twitter exercise.  They show they are impotent . And must now retreat , remove blockade . The second possibility is that it was Iran . In this case , it shows that they are confident that they will not be defeated . Did someone hand the Usraelis some Uranium  metal ? Go ask . As they said , they will export as much oil as they like ! In either case , we see that blockade has failed .

    The yanks must now go home . Yankee go home .


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-oman-incident-explosions-heard-16510326.amp
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:23 am

    They r not Buddhists, but feel at home everywhere as they feel every1 owes them something & should do as they say. They'll go headlong into another disastrous campaign, just like the Greeks, Romans, Spaniards, French, British, Russians & Germans did. Don't expect the likes of Bolton to learn from history to see the forest among the trees.
    Whatever Pompeo Says, there is no Certainty Iran mined the Tankers

    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2647378.html

    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/06/article/tankers-struck-amid-abes-mission-impossible-to-iran/

    Israel or even Russia/China could be behind attacks on tankers- to make sure the war against Iran happens or the oil prices go up, Syria is left to Russia, & the US is occupied while the PRC manhandles Taiwan.
    Iran is a sweet juicy fruit coveted by many, not just the USA.
    So, hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst!


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:14 am; edited 4 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:10 am

    The Americans may not be willing to go to war with Iran , for same reason they won't go to war with China or Russia . Doing false flags is not in style with Russian or Chinese culture.  It is Yank problem . They gain or win by peace. Yanks  ( Hawks ) , win by war  or they conquered the weaker . Different worlds .
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:23 am

    Doing false flags is not in style with Russian or Chinese culture.
    Times have changed in the hybrid war era. It also could be that they knew of the imminent attacks ahead of time, but didn't take any measures to warn those ships or prevent them from being hit. Russia & China would benefit from the US getting a bloody nose like they did in Korea, Vietnam, not to mention in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, & Iran itself during the failed hostage rescue attempt.
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    Post  nomadski on Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:54 am

    I think , unlike America ,  Russia and China do not sit down and plot how to give other people a bloody nose . In this American neo-con manufactured  crisis , they have shown that they are,  like most other nations , interested in their national economic interests . Trying to maintain first  their good and much larger  trade volume  and economic  relations intact with America  and Europe .

    They are ofcourse no angels . But the Americans and British ( English ) are devils . Although  I fear that they  might  militarily side with the yanks , to  open Hormuz , if Iran closes it ( siding with the stronger side and not against it ) , I think that they will militarily stay neutral .

    Iran however has said , they are ready to confront an international coalition . In this crisis , I think the better route for Iran , was to get launch system first , then show nuke warhead and then to completely close the Hormuz .  To change material political conditions on the ground . Counter pressure that counts .This would have stopped a hot war , and forced removal of blockade .

    However , we have to deal with the cards , that have been dealt . Even now I think Iran should try to target the interests of those responsible for starting this war . The military industrial complex in USA .  Their Banks . Rather than those less directly involved . But this may not be possible . War can be a very blunt instrument .
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:30 am

    Iran in its present form is a torn on the US side that should be removed once & for all.

    But that is the point... Iran really wasn't much of a thorn for the US until the US started interfering and breaking countries all around them.

    Iran can hardly ignore Iraq and Syria and Afghanistan getting smashed and rebuilt in Americas image... because if it had worked they knew they were next, so really the rise of Iran in the region is largely down to US meddling and incompetence.

    Near destruction by US supported terrorists has made Iran and Russia vastly more important to Assad and Syria than they ever were before, and it has given Russia the opportunity to test weapons and equipment in a realistic environment... but more importantly it is a chance to test tactics and procedures in a conflict situation which is invaluable... both to the quality of what is developed and produced, but also for sales and export potential to potential new allies and customers.

    Do you think Turkey wants S-400 because it is slightly cheaper than Patriot or because it was recently installed in Syria by the Russians and even the American F-22s wont enter that airspace willingly let alone F-35s etc... now Syria is a country that regularly got flown over with impunity by most of its neighbours... but not now... even by superpowers.

    So they have created a situation where Iran has become a valued friend and their own hardware has been shown wanting and not the super state of the art gear they like to pretend it is.

    US-Canada-UK-Iceland bloc will emerge & serve the Anglo-Saxons in the event of NATO dissolving:

    Good. America will feel safe and the EU will actually become much safer without needing to confront Russia all the time they can save a lot of money of pointless "defence" spending, and also get their gas much cheaper...

    Regarding removing Iran , as a Thorn , from America's side . I agree . All the yanks have to do ,  is remove their Imperialistic presence  from region and extricate  themselves  from the Thorn .

    Yeah... literally stop crawling through thorn bushes and that will solve their problems with thorns...   Rolling Eyes

    This latest Tanker incident in Gulf of Oman , has two possibility  . Either it was Iran or it was the yank alliance false flag  operation . But if it was the yanks alliance , then they are not taking advantage of it . They show that  they can not go to war .

    Have to remember there are more than two parties involved in this... the US is obviously not so keen to go to war as they pretend... otherwise these attacks were vastly more credible than the so called chem attacks in Syria used to justify launching cruise missile attacks there. It might be Iran trying to pressure the US into doing something stupid but fast rather than the slow decay of sanctions and then a war when Iran is much much weaker. It could be Saudi Arabia or Israel trying to start something they can enjoy watching where to sides bash each other and they can sit on the sidelines and watch...


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