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    New START Treaty

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:46 am

    With the INF treaty gone Russia can simply develop a wide range of ground launched 4,500km range cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to engage targets all over Europe.

    The New START treaty regards strategic weapons... hense the S in START.

    The S-400 already in service in numbers, plus the introduction of S-350 to replace obsolete S-300 missiles and also the S-300V family missiles and S-500 missiles will make Russia a much more difficult target than Europe is in terms of nuclear weapons.

    The UK and France are open targets with no real defence except the threat to reply in kind.

    Russia has ABM defences around Moscow and with the introduction of Nudol and the expansion of their radar network to cover most of the northern hemisphere, plus mobile systems like S-400 and now S-350 and soon S-500 the ability of an enemy power to nuke Russia with less than thousands of weapons at a time is becoming a real problem.

    The reverse is not true as the primary ABM systems in the west are based on ships which are vulnerable to anti ship missiles of high speed like Kinzhal in the Arctic and Pacific Oceans.

    Russia is no where near invincible... nobody is... but they are better protected than most and getting better all the time.

    Can't say the same for the UK or France.
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    Mindstorm

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    Post  Mindstorm Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:33 pm

    Arrow wrote:
    Mindstorm wrote:
    US populated and economically productive territory at startegic distance - point of origin of the attack and the most advanced ABM defense systems on foreign sub-startegic distance : THIS is potentially an heavy unbalancing factor.

    Mindstorm How can Russia counteract this?I believe that only the expansion of ABM systems in Russia against the IRBM remains? Some of the IRBM missiles are already capable of intercepting the S-400 and S-300V4, and the S-500 in the future.


    There is not a possible and credible simmetrical geo-political response to this situation (there is only a geographical advantage tha can be capitalised that i will describe after); the response can be only technological and is just this consideration that has oriented domestic research and development efforts in the latest 15 years (and not only in the military field).

    In particular of capital importance are:

    - The further increase of the range of domestic hypersonic weapons now near to be accepted in service, particularly ground and air based ones, this will enormously increase the burden of western planners taking in consideration that OTAN lack almost completely an organic and multilayered IAD both in Europe and CONUS for itsd key military installations

    - Complete the R&D programs for the new strategic air-space defense systems based on previously not capitalised physical phenomenons (by several specialist assessments this will enormously depreciate, if not render almost irrelevant by the second half of this century, today arsenal of nuclear weapons with classical ballistic vectors).  

    - Continue the researchs for space-based sensor for global submarine detection (from our CCCP scientifical heritage) with the integration of latest AI technologies and conduct re-entry experiments of maneuvrable hypersonic vehicles at sea ; this will open the possibility of a disarming thermonuclear strike on the triad branch on which OTAN has put almost all its "eggs" and force therefore them to a complete shift toward delivery systems that western military science has almost completely neglected in the latest 40 years.

    - Take trace of US investments and R&D efforts in space-based offensive systems (this is the expected "pardigm-shift" move by part of american planners to theirs disadvantage in several key technologies in strategic offensive and defensive systems) and ,only if necessary, develop on the basis of pasted programs, space based systems for theirs neutralization.


    In the near time will be possible to capitalise the geographical advantage of Far Eastern enclaves in comparison with the highly populated and economical and military installation saturated US West Coast to place there incoming IRBMs and ground and sea based Калибр-M (conventional and nuclear armed) and greatly increase the presence in the area of new generations of anti-ship missiles.
    In this way it will be possible to put US planners in a similar enemy unilateral strategical advantage brain-teaser.


    Last we must remember that contrarely to our measures, entirely based within our national borders, what US will attempt to obtain require the lasting support of foreign nations that moreover should also, in the process, accept a deadly sword of Damocles continously put on theirs heads only to save a supposed former "protector" that they will begin to perceive as more and more weak (and this will quickly worsen when dollar will progressively lose within a pair of decades completely its reserve currency status).

    In educated analysis those nearsighted measures, typical of american arrogant and self-referential mindset, will produce an early detachement of western European nations toward a real independent economic and military block.

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    dino00
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    Post  dino00 Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:02 pm

    ...So manouvereable HGV against submarines, plasma generated field Defense, Space base interceptors/lasers...nice.
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    Arrow

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    Post  Arrow Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:12 pm

    Mindstorm wrote:

    Continue the researchs for space-based sensor for global submarine detection (from our CCCP scientifical heritage)

    On what basis of physics such a system can be based? The global surface ship detection system like Legenda can be understood. Whereas the detection of submerged submarines by means of space homing. Sounds like fantasy. It cannot be done via EM wave because it propagates very poorly in water. Scanning the sea with some lasers? It is also poorly propagated at depths. Very interesting, but it has to be some interesting technological breakthrough?
    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Sun Jan 24, 2021 5:10 pm

    Mindstorm wrote:- Complete the R&D programs for the new strategic air-space defense systems based on previously not capitalised physical phenomenons (by several specialist assessments this will enormously depreciate, if not render almost irrelevant by the second half of this century, today arsenal of nuclear weapons with classical ballistic vectors).

    Wow I thought this was only logical, but had not heard that such system had been kept under development, nice to know they are indeed working on it. US should take care, if things keep going in the same direction in the future, it may be Russia that would be tempted to play nuclear supremacy with the them...

    Last we must remember that contrarely to our measures, entirely based within our national borders, what US will attempt to obtain require the lasting support of foreign nations that moreover should also, in the process, accept a deadly sword of Damocles continously put on theirs heads only to save a supposed former "protector" that they will begin to perceive as more and more weak (and this will quickly worsen when dollar will progressively lose within a pair of decades completely its reserve currency status).

    No mention to SS(G)N and Tsirkon? This is a weapon that indeed does not need deployment in some vassal state territory, but given the insular geography of US, that is in fact not necessary. It places CONUS at the same risk US will place Russia when they place their missiles in Europe. In the next few years the VMF will receive back a serious number of subs that after modernization will be capable of launching the missile.

    In educated analysis those nearsighted measures, typical of american arrogant and self-referential mindset, will produce an early detachement of western European nations toward a real independent economic and military block.

    Sadly the elites both sides of the Atlantic are the same, therefore Europe will not be liberated until the whole empire collapses, given the total intellectual insufficiency of most of the European population, they will be taken to the slaughterhouse feeling they are going to a party. I hope that I am wrong but by now in most EU countries patriotic parties are easily kept in check, when not completely infiltrated, by the establishment.

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    TMA1
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    Post  TMA1 Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:35 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    Mindstorm wrote:- Complete the R&D programs for the new strategic air-space defense systems based on previously not capitalised physical phenomenons (by several specialist assessments this will enormously depreciate, if not render almost irrelevant by the second half of this century, today arsenal of nuclear weapons with classical ballistic vectors).

    Wow I thought this was only logical, but had not heard that such system had been kept under development, nice to know they are indeed working on it. US should take care, if things keep going in the same direction in the future, it may be Russia that would be tempted to play nuclear supremacy with the them...

    Last we must remember that contrarely to our measures, entirely based within our national borders, what US will attempt to obtain require the lasting support of foreign nations that moreover should also, in the process, accept a deadly sword of Damocles continously put on theirs heads only to save a supposed former "protector" that they will begin to perceive as more and more weak (and this will quickly worsen when dollar will progressively lose within a pair of decades completely its reserve currency status).

    No mention to SS(G)N and Tsirkon? This is a weapon that indeed does not need deployment in some vassal state territory, but given the insular geography of US, that is in fact not necessary. It places CONUS at the same risk US will place Russia when they place their missiles in Europe. In the next few years the VMF will receive back a serious number of subs that after modernization will be capable of launching the missile.

    In educated analysis those nearsighted measures, typical of american arrogant and self-referential mindset, will produce an early detachement of western European nations toward a real independent economic and military block.

    Sadly the elites both sides of the Atlantic are the same, therefore Europe will not be liberated until the whole empire collapses, given the total intellectual insufficiency of most of the European population, they will be taken to the slaughterhouse feeling they are going to a party. I hope that I am wrong but by now in most EU countries patriotic parties are easily kept in check, when not completely infiltrated, by the establishment.

    sadly your last words are true. here in America the uniparty is fully exposed. elitism and strange ideas are rife among those who used to say they fought for the people. those who are against the transnational elites are called "qanon" and "trash". Young people spinning into extremes of all kinds. expect even weirder times ahead.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:13 am

    Sadly the elites both sides of the Atlantic are the same, therefore Europe will not be liberated until the whole empire collapses, given the total intellectual insufficiency of most of the European population, they will be taken to the slaughterhouse feeling they are going to a party. I hope that I am wrong but by now in most EU countries patriotic parties are easily kept in check, when not completely infiltrated, by the establishment.

    The thing is that while they print money to no consequence the US could afford to keep the EU in line by spending money... those huge US bases used to haemorrhage money and the locals just loved having all that extra cash spent in the local economy... but soon western EU countries will be having to pay for the privilege just like eastern european countries desperate for boots on the ground protection from the US.

    There is going to come a time when they start sucking money out of countries openly (they always did of course... that is how it paid for itself) and having those countries also pay for their own protection as well... the little cowards are going to find their spines... which happens when the pockets are empty and the outer layer of fat is much thinner than they are normally used to.

    The question is how will it go... will the more recent additions and perhaps some more southern members want to hitch up to Russia or have their own party, or will the EU stay as one, or collapse completely with the former colonial powers returning to old ways...

    Should be interesting to see it all play out.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Jan 25, 2021 7:40 am

    The elites already act like aristocrats with utter contempt for the peasants. We still frame the discussion as if these
    elites should respect national interests of European countries. That is now outdated thinking. The elites are "post modern"
    and to them selling their countries down the river to prove obeisance to Uncle Swine-shit is perfectly normal. All that
    matters is that they keep their positions as the local aristocracy.

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    calripson

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    Post  calripson Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:41 pm

    kvs wrote:The elites already act like aristocrats with utter contempt for the peasants.   We still frame the discussion as if these
    elites should respect national interests of European countries.   That is now outdated thinking.  The elites are "post modern"
    and to them selling their countries down the river to prove obeisance to Uncle Swine-shit is perfectly normal.   All that
    matters is that they keep their positions as the local aristocracy.  



    In other words, the 2020 version of Feudalism. That is why billionaires are socialists advocating for higher income (not asset) taxes. Removes the up and comers and competition. Give the peasants professional sports, legal marijuana, and guaranteed subsistence income with a steady stream of brain-washing Hollywood neuro-linguistic programming.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:06 am



    Putin better not pull a Gorbie and suck Biden's lying cock.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:49 am

    The Russians agreed to extension of no pre conditions. So the old agreements.

    Nothing in there states though about Avangarde. This weapon could be built in more numbers still giving Russia the advantage.

    IRBM's will probably be built in numbers.
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    Arrow

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    Post  Arrow Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:07 am

    Poseidon, Burevestnik furure IRCM all this will be outside the START treaty. An Aangard is counted as a single RV carried by the ICBM.
    The-thing-next-door
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    Post  The-thing-next-door Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:34 pm

    With Russia having both its own ABMs (which are likely superior to their western counterparts) and numerous means to bypass the enemy ABM systems the extension of this treaty actually hands a significant advantage to Russia.

    Af for IRCMs the usn was already pointing them at Russia and the Russian IADS will render them rather ineffective.


    We must also consider that due to the pindos failure to isolate thier political class from thier delusion based propaganda system a nuclear war is not unlikely and as such preservation of treaties that limit the number of pindostanski warheads is an easy way to help ensure that Russia can sustain less damage and clean up the resulting mess.

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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:52 pm

    https://www.kiro7.com/news/politics/biden-first-call-with-putin-presses-navalny-treaty/OXV3WJNCCJ5PIG63RWRIHUH3BI/

    Biden has looked to establish a sharp break from the warm rhetoric often displayed toward Putin by his predecessor, Donald Trump. But the new president also looked to preserve room for diplomacy, telling the Russian leader that the two nations should finalize a five-year extension of an arms control treaty before it expires early next month, according to the officials, who were familiar with the call but not authorized to discuss it publicly.

    So it looks like we would be hearing about the official extension of the START treaty in a few days.
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:53 pm

    Official statement by Kremlin on the Biden-Putin call:

    http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64936
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    owais.usmani

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    Post  owais.usmani Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:56 pm

    https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1354119197513687040

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    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:45 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1354119197513687040

    New START Treaty - Page 11 Firesh20

    Russian govt. will ratify it, but will US congress ratify it? US Congress never ratified: The Hungarian Accords, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), nor The Kyoto Protocol.

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    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:33 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:The Russians agreed to extension of no pre conditions. So the old agreements.

    Nothing in there states though about Avangarde.  This weapon could be built in more numbers still giving Russia the advantage.

    IRBM's will probably be built in numbers.

    There is 5 years extension provision in the treaty so no problems with going with it

    But once that expires they better come up with something new and this time they should get French and Brits in the mix or drop the whole thing

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    Arrow

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    Post  Arrow Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:46 am

    LMFS wrote:.

    Wow I thought this was only logical, but had not heard that such system had been kept under development, nice to know they are indeed working on it. US should take care, if things keep going in the same direction in the future, it may be Russia that would be tempted to play nuclear supremacy with the them...

    What systems exactly are they talking about?  Stopping a nuclear attack, even massaged with conventional ballistic missiles, seems impossible for now.

    As for the technologies of detecting submarines from satellites. Is it about LIDAR technologies? It is said that China and the USA are carrying out advanced work on this. Maybe the Russian idea is based on other solutions?
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Wed Jan 27, 2021 10:46 am

    The problem is going to be that it will take 5 years to negotiate the next treaty...

    But once that expires they better come up with something new and this time they should get French and Brits in the mix or drop the whole thing

    It would say Russia can deal with UK and France using IRCM and IRBMs, so all of their New START limited systems can be directed at the US, and the US will likely base IRBM and IRCMs in Japan and South Korea against China and they can have as many of those as they like too so there is no need for China or France or the UK or Israel to be included... they can be dealt with using unlimited numbers of shorter ranged weapons.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:50 am

    GarryB wrote:The problem is going to be that it will take 5 years to negotiate the next treaty...

    But once that expires they better come up with something new and this time they should get French and Brits in the mix or drop the whole thing

    It would say Russia can deal with UK and France using IRCM and IRBMs, so all of their New START limited systems can be directed at the US, and the US will likely base IRBM and IRCMs in Japan and South Korea against China and they can have as many of those as they like too so there is no need for China or France or the UK or Israel to be included... they can be dealt with using unlimited numbers of shorter ranged weapons.


    Doesn't start limit the entire use of nuclear warheads, meaning the IRBM's can't be nuclear?
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    Post  PapaDragon Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:05 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    GarryB wrote:The problem is going to be that it will take 5 years to negotiate the next treaty...

    But once that expires they better come up with something new and this time they should get French and Brits in the mix or drop the whole thing

    It would say Russia can deal with UK and France using IRCM and IRBMs, so all of their New START limited systems can be directed at the US, and the US will likely base IRBM and IRCMs in Japan and South Korea against China and they can have as many of those as they like too so there is no need for China or France or the UK or Israel to be included... they can be dealt with using unlimited numbers of shorter ranged weapons.


    Doesn't start limit the entire use of nuclear warheads, meaning the IRBM's can't be nuclear?

    START only covers strategic warheads

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    franco
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    Post  franco Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:25 pm

    And a delivery system of 5,000 kms plus or maybe 5,500 kms. Too lazy to double check now.

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:02 pm

    First it was 5.000km, was changed to 5.500km because the Pioneer-UTTH could reach that range.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:39 pm



    Looks like Biden in spite of his senility is more attached to reality than Trump.

    If Russia had the obligation to get China as a 3rd party to START, then the US has an obligation to get France and the UK
    to submit as well.


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