Ispan Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:58 pm
Ammunition shortage starting to be felt by Ukrainian forces
The source:
http://voicesevas.ru/news/32125-podmochennyy-poroh-prezidenta-poroshenko.html
Relevant excerpts:
The news is amazing by the present times: a new ammunition production plant is already under construction in Ukraine. This was stated in Kiev by the president of the corporation Taxco Valery Pavlyukov. According to Pavlyukov, several shops have already been put into operation, ready to produce lethal products. At first - at least for some types of artillery.
Not surprisingly, many local media have enthusiastically multiplied this message. After alleverybody knows that the Ukrainian troops already experience an acute shortage in many types of ammunition in the Donbas. Accurate data on this account, of course, in Kiev are stored under the label "secret". But the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is clearly very nervous about this.
In the Ukrainian press in recent months, there have been reports from the anonymous members of the so-called "ATO" that in their trenches there is not enough fragmentation grenade launcher ammunition VOG-25 and VOG-17 for the grenades and automatic grenade launchers AGS-17 "Flame". For sniper rifles, soldiers are forced to use machine-gun cartridges instead of regular ones. That has a disastrous effect on the accuracy of shooting and the condition of the barrels.
In Kiev, the information and consulting company Defense Express has somehow calculated if the fighting in the Donbas for another ten to twelve months continued with the same intensity that in the ehot" phase of 2014, then Ukraine would have exhausted the most common Kalashnikov caliber ammo before End of 2016. Further fighting would be with bows and arrows.
Note: the issue is not exclusively about small arms, indispensable in trench warfare. Namely, such a senseless and never-ending massacre has been slowly smoldering in the Donbass for several years. If the fighting there suddenly goes into a more active phase, the sides of the conflict will have to use even more actively tanks and artillery. But there is reason to believe that for some artillery systems of the AFU everything is even worse. Especially for MLRS "Smerch" and "Hurricane", which were used most actively by AFU in the first months of the war. Please note: these formidable systems are almost silent today. And, of course, not because the use of any types of MLRS is prohibited by the Minsk Agreements. Tanks and artillery large calibers in accordance with these arrangements, too, for a long time and certainly Kiev should be taken for a line of contact. But... in fact, have not disappeared from the front line and continue almost daily firing on the rebellious Donbas.
There is convincing evidence that the 152-mm towed 2A36 "Hyacinth-B" cannon, the 152-mm self-propelled Msta-B howitzer... are seldom used against the militia by the Ukrainian armed forces
[Daily war reports confirm that the Ukrainians seldom use anymore their heavy artillery, the more so since the Kharkov ammo dump explosion this spring]
. The reason is the same. In fact, they have nothing with wich to shoot. And if there is anything left, the commanders are keeping it in case of aggravation of hostilities.
. As an inheritance from the USSR, Ukraine inherited mountains of virtually all kinds of ammunition. Even after the active sale of part of them abroad, after organized and spontaneous disposal in the form of a series of devastating explosions and fires in numerous Ukrainian arsenals, by 2005 the country, according to the Kiev Razumkov Foundation, had 2.5 million tons of cartridges, shells, missiles , Mines, etc. By the time the ATO began, according to estimates of local experts, there was something about 2.16 million tons.
Still a lot? I guess, yes. But here one should take into account one important circumstance. The average technical life of each ammunition is about 12 years. The maximum is 35 years. Ukraine itself could not produce much in this area. Except small ammunition that until 2014 was properly manufactured by a large Lugansk cartridge factory. Moreover, in Shostka, at the state factory, some types of 23 mm, 30 mm, 100 mm artillery and 125 mm tank shells were produced.
...
the last deliveries of ammunition to the country from the territory of present-day Russia are dated 1989-1990. This is also mentioned in the mentioned report of the Razumkov Center for 2005.
It turns out that in 2014, when the civil war began, and today, when it still does not see the end, AFU shoots almost exclusively expired shells and mines.
[reports from the front confirm an unusual high proportion of duds. This was sometimes attributed to sabotage by pro-Russian artillerists sympathetic to the rebels, or having scruples about shelling civilians, sadly, the simpler explanation of fuse failure seems true]
Not only that the effectiveness of this shooting inspires serious doubts. So also the suicidal self-destruction of their own artillery because of this junk long ago became a common thing in Ukrainian troops.
[Ukrainian forces suffer high casualties from accidents handling ammunition, either from carelessness or unstable explosives. There's some truth to this, but it's also serves as a cover story for accurate Novorussian counterbattery fire]
(rest is about the failures of the Ukrainian regime to set up manufacture of ammunition and large caliber artillery rockets in particular)
PS The low stocks may prompt the AFU to finally try a great scale offensive this summer. Unfortunately, the US will certainly not allow the Ukraine regime to be defeated or cease war by lack of ammunition and most likely will arrange with Poland to supply 122mm shells from their stocks, and perhaps Bulgaria will provide small arms ammunition. That being said, producing ammunition in the quantities needed will recquire a lot more money than what the US is providing now.
PPS The ammunition shortage proves the high consumption given the huge stocks, and indirectly confirms the estimates about the true intensity of the war and the consequent casualties in the tens of thousands.
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