The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

More MH-17 frustration in Moscow.

Russian Federal Air Transport Agency Rosaviatsia denied Dutch claims of Russia's radar data on MH17 crash allegedly violating international requirements. Rosaviatsia also stated that Russia has provided the Netherlands with MH17 crash primary radar data three months ago and since has not received any requests for help of Russian experts to decode the data. "To date, we have received no requests from the Dutch side to involve our experts in decoding the primary radar data," Rosaviatsia Deputy Chief Oleg Storchevoy told reporters.

Media reports suggested on Sunday that Dutch investigators failed to decode information on the MH17 crash in eastern Ukraine provided by Russia last fall. "There are no international requirements concerning such information and the way it is recorded," Storchevoy said. He also voiced surprise that the Netherlands "cannot decode our [Russia's] data, with this fact being stated in media, but not making Russia aware of it."

Issues the Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team (JIT) is experiencing in decoding the MH17 crash radar data could have been resolved immediately through joint work with Russian experts, the Russian air transport agency said. "The ICAO recommends to involve specialists, developers of equipment if an investigation takes place to decode the information and obtain objective data. The fact that it took the Dutch side took more than three months to provide such information is puzzling. Our data have been transferred last year. This is a purely technical matter, which can be immediately solved via cooperation."

Storchevoy noted that Russia is ready to provide its experts' help and needed information "so that the entire world learns the truth about the tragedy." Rosaviatsia also said that the Netherlands is deliberately delaying the investigation into the Malaysian Airlines plane crash over southeastern Ukraine. "We have repeatedly stated about the timing of the investigation involving work with the technical committee being deliberately delayed. It was brought to the attention that the desire of the Dutch Commission to deliberately mislead the public is the reason for the delay."

https://sputniknews.com/russia/201701311050192710-mh17-russia-radar-data/

Patrick John Lancaster
6 hrs ·
Breaking news
Reports of 203 miners stuck in the Zasyadko mine in Kyivs'kyi district after large part of Donetsk is with out power due to Ukraine shelling the city over night.

112 miners have been rescued. The mine is now out of action due to shelling.

Patrick John Lancaster
5 hrs ·
Seems DNR forces launching a counter attack after last 2 days of Ukraine attacks on civilian areas in Donetsk. Outgoing Grad is firing now in very large numbers.

Patrick John Lancaster added 4 new photos. (you can see the photos on his twitter)
6 mins ·
BREAKING NEWS Str. Nedelina, Donetsk 45 woman, Lyudmila Tretyakova, born in 1947, At 12:30 PM she died in her bed when numerous shrapnel impacts from Ukraine shelling her home. My full video report on the spot coming soon

Added: 19 hours ago Occurred On: Jan-30-2017
Donetsk. Girls under UAF artillery shelling



https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=062_1485802717

JohninMK wrote:More MH-17 frustration in Moscow.

Deinekin's comment should be the real frustation

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201701301050138896-dutch-investigators-sabotage-mh17-investigation/

On top of the figures below will be those dead and injured from the actions over the past 24 hours. With both sides now using Grad salvos and Basurin claiming that a RS salvo onto the UA defended power supplies to Avdeyevka caused the blackout things are really hotting up. This is from todays update, much more at link


The DPR Armed Forces' reconnaissance obtained a report of the AFU Chief of Staff V. Muzhenko on real losses among the Ukrainian military on January 29 and 30, which had been presented to the 'president' of Ukraine, and which became the reason of the P. Poroshenko's emergency return from Germany. According to the obtained materials, at the moment in morgues and military medical institutions of Ukraine there is the following situation:

- In Selidovo's morgue – 29 bodies of dead Ukrainian military personnel;

- In Krasnoarmeysk's morgue – 41 bodies of dead military personnel;

- In the 65th mobile military-medical hospital in Chasov Yar – 62 wounded fighters;

- In the 66th mobile military-medical hospital in Novy Trud – eight dead bodies and 14 crippled military personnel.

True losses are being concealed from the public in order to prevent panic in the AFU ranks and among the population. We will publish this information for the 'president' of Ukraine P. Poroshenko to have an opportunity to offer explanations personally, looking in the eyes of the dead and crippled soldiers' mothers, for the sake of what ambitions he had ruined so many people. And what did he win by having launched into eternity more than 70 fighters? For justification of such huge losses Poltorak stated the alleged capture of some "10-meters plot", but actually – they have failed the situation.

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-31012017

Uhm, things are really going ballistic around Adveevka. Reports of 152mm's being dropped like it rains. Over 25 casualties from NAF, and over 70 for UA, there's some nasty images of 3 BMP-2's burning, but I'm not sure if these are from right now or from last time in Novolugansk.

The fighting during January 2017 summary report


War went on through January, at medium intensity and has escalated with major attacks , up to 3 battalions involved in Avdeyevka and Yasinovataya. When the intensity of the fighting reaches the 2,000 "incidents" a day, commentators say the level of bombardment is similar to the battles of early 2015 for Donetsk Airport and Debaltsevo. No major breakthrough attempt, but intense positional warfare.

If you follow this thread, I have long maintained that the ceasefire violations are as reported by the DONi news agency are not single shots, but shellings of a variable amount, as the original Russian text states its "times" not "shots", and in general the intensity of the fighting and casualties are minimized in order to freeze the conflict.

The available evidence about Ukrainian casualties admitted to hospitals, reports and video about the damage to infrastructure and houses, and intensity of the fighting confirms this.


On Sunday,29 January, there was the first official recognition that every day hundreds if not thousands of artillery rounds are exchanged, and countless firing by other arms.



https://dninews.com/article/12-hours-extreme-ukrainian-military-provocations-donbass-sunday-whoah

relevant excerpt:

Loud booms from heavy artillery have been shaking the capital all day. Thousands of artillery shells and mortar grenades have exploded in such intense firing, that in some moments we could not hear single explosions, but just the fire storm from the outskirts of the city.

Available videos with audio of the cannonade, confirm, that even if whole salvos are not fired, the gunfire is constant, one shell every few seconds, going on for several hours means thousands of shells and bombs being fired.

And there was nothing extraordinary about Sunday 29, there have been days with even more intense fighting at the end of November and beginning of December of 2016

In the graphic below, note the report refers to the previous day, so the figure for sunday 29 is 1,912 shellings and combats




And approximate estimate that has proven remarkably consistent is dividing the number of "cease fire violations" by 10 to get an idea of the Ukrainian casualties, since the Ukrainian side is always the attacker and its infantry exposes itself when going out of the positions into the attack, and the assumption that the Novorussian return fire is similar in volumen.

So daily casualties would range from two dozen in a "quiet" day with 200 violations, wich amounts to sporadic shelling, shooting and sniping, and is certainly not a ceasefire, to two hundred daily casualties in intense days with 2,000 strikes and combats recorded.

So yesterday would have cost the Ukrainians about 200 casualties, and this is confirmed by reports that talk about 70 dead, and double or triple that amount in wounded. Again, nothing unusual or out of the ordinary, and similar casualties to the battlalion sized attacks on Debaltsevo sector at the end of December.

Ukrainian regime seems to have belatedly realize the need to censor the data posted by Ukrainian volunteer organizations about number of wounded being admitted to hospitals in the rearguard, so that source has dried up. Most unusually, the Novorussians have reported today on Ukrainian losses and confirmed the 70 dead figure.

https://dninews.com/article/donetsk-defense-situation-report-31012017

relevant excerpt:

The DPR Armed Forces' reconnaissance obtained a report of the AFU Chief of Staff V. Muzhenko on real losses among the Ukrainian military on January 29 and 30, which had been presented to the 'president' of Ukraine, and which became the reason of the P. Poroshenko's emergency return from Germany. According to the obtained materials, at the moment in morgues and military medical institutions of Ukraine there is the following situation:

- In Selidovo's morgue – 29 bodies of dead Ukrainian military personnel;

- In Krasnoarmeysk's morgue – 41 bodies of dead military personnel;

- In the 65th mobile military-medical hospital in Chasov Yar – 62 wounded fighters;

- In the 66th mobile military-medical hospital in Novy Trud – eight dead bodies and 14 crippled military personnel.

True losses are being concealed from the public in order to prevent panic in the AFU ranks and among the population. We will publish this information for the 'president' of Ukraine P. Poroshenko to have an opportunity to offer explanations personally, looking in the eyes of the dead and crippled soldiers' mothers, for the sake of what ambitions he had ruined so many people. And what did he win by having launched into eternity more than 70 fighters? For justification of such huge losses Poltorak stated the alleged capture of some "10-meters plot", but actually – they have failed the situation.

So yes, that's 200 casualties as predicted, and the coincidence repeats so often, that is a valid method.

And that is just one sector of the front. The fighting in Donetsk city and surroundings gets the most reporting because that's where reporters are, but these days see also intense fighting in the south of the front and in Lugansk sector.

Adding up all the daily reports, there were 24,000 artillery strikes and firefights over January, an average of 800 a day. One third of the "violations" were done with artillery, mortars and other heavy weapons, wich confirms the scarcity of artillery ammunition, as the average proportion was 55% throughout 2016. This means less artillery fire, more mortar bombs, and more infantry attacks.

Casualties can reasonably be estimated around 2,000 for this month. Losing a few battallions a month is acceptable to the junta but this added on top of the previous year casualties will force a new recruiting drive at some point, or pushing the National Guard and other paramilitary battalions into the frontline, these number 40,000 from recent reports and it would be interesting to know their proportion of frontline troops, estimated now at 50,000.

"They will not get through": Alexandr Zakharchenko. Eng. Subs. 1080p.




Part of channel(s): Ukraine (current event)

"They will not get through": Alexandr Zakharchenko. Eng. Subs. 1080p.
Yasinovataya, DPR. January 31, 2017. In the wake of geopolitical tectonic shifts and possible rapprochement between Russia and USA, Ukraine has escalated their attacks on Donetsk People's Republic along almost 50km front-line. Head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko went to the front-line at Yasinovataya to support the troops of the Republic.

Read more at https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=eb6_1485894930#kDjB1G5Z2Bv7le8K.99


Donetsk People's Republic Military Command Statement Jan 31, 2017


Part of channel(s): Ukraine (current event)

Urgent report on the situation in the industrial zone area.

Read more at https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c58_1485872722#6RbA8abcoVhuR0Qs.99

Did I hear correctly that Ukraine takes over the Presidency of the UN Security Council for the next month?

franco wrote:Did I hear correctly that Ukraine takes over the Presidency of the UN Security Council for the next month?

Ukraine - Volodymyr Yelchenko, since 1 February 2017.

Yep.

Looks like it's on lads. Buckle up.
BREAKING: https://www.rt.com/news/375892-kiev-advance-rebels-position/

OminousSpudd wrote:Looks like it's on lads. Buckle up.
BREAKING: https://www.rt.com/news/375892-kiev-advance-rebels-position/

That's not the half of it, there is a really serious escalation underway, Grads into Donetsk? Just look at the headlines this morning down the left hand side at https://dninews.com/

Looks like Kiev may have decided that its now or never.

Brief summary of yesterday, 31st January fighting.

All out bombardment with intense fighting reported across 50 km of front, only in Donetsk. There must be some shooting going on in the rest of quiet sectors of the line, plus whatever happens at Lugansk.

https://dninews.com/article/ukrainian-forces-violate-ceasefire-3016-times-over-24-hours

Curiously this time, the amount of rockets seems to have been counted each rocket individually. From past reports of the last three days, firing of rockets has been in few rockets, and the occasional whole package of 40.

EDIT: Daily briefing came out and cleared that it was 12 packages of 40 rockets.


mostly a few tubes firing, and the occasional complete package, against a backdrop of 1,700 cannon and mortar "firings", wich would be at the very least be five times that number in shells and bombs hitting the ground.

Just checked and the Ukrainian forces have just 800 artillery pieces and mortars, so even if the report is so unbelieveable precise that they can count each individual projectile, that means they are firing at the very least twice a day by piece wich is way . Of course some tubes will be silent, wich drives up the average of the rest.

He explained, that the enemy’s units 839 times had applied heavy artillery. The AFU also applied multiple rocket launchers – 490 times, mortars – 842 times, tanks – six times, IFV – 83 times, anti-aircraft installations, rocket anti-tank launchers, grenade machine guns and small arms – 756 times.[/I

On casualties, every time my rule of thumb gets confirmed: Three thousand "violations" divided by ten amounts to three hundred casualties, of wich 100 dead and the rest wounded.

Unusual detailed reporting by the Novorussians. And I have every reason to believe is true, since so far, their estimates have been confirmed, if unofficially, by Ukrainian sources. The numbers are credible, and the evacuation of hospitals is something that cannot be hidden.

https://dninews.com/article/kiev-loses-93-gunmen-killed-%E2%80%93-dpr-intelligence

Wednesday, February 1, 2017 - 13:16

The Ukrainian army has lost 93 gunmen killed over the past day, reported the DPR Operational Command.

"The enemy has lost 93 servicemen killed over the last day. The number of wounded goes to hundreds," the representative of the Command said.

To accommodate the wounded fighters, Kiev has started evacuation of patients from hospitals of Avdeyevka, Konstantinovka and Selidovo.

"Along the perimeter of hospitals there are military personnel. AFU medical units don't cope with evacuation of the crippled fighters. The Ukrainian volunteer organizations are involved in transportation of bodies," the DPR Command added.

Still this is not all out war. Mostly artillery doing a lot of noise, but Ukrainian infantry attacks are the typical and senseless piecemeal probe with a few platoons and supported by armored vehicles. Occasionally a tank takes a potshot from afar, but there's no major offensive... yet.

I love karma. Apparently our man with the big head and small helmet, Heug, aka osce head dog, was with a delegation on the way to Donetsk water treatment plant when the bastard came under fire. I would bet some pampers had to be changed.

https://dninews.com/article/smm-osce-chief-monitor-and-jccc-representatives-come-under-ukrainian-shelling

Maybe they have changed the way they report number of rounds fired because they read you here

We should be so lucky.

I had some lovely conversations with border control the last time I was in US, actually the last two times, late fall of '14 and '15. They don't like me very much and probably even less since I published my short story last year, sub title 'NATO is invited to leave'. Total fiction.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU

auslander wrote:We should be so lucky.

I had some lovely conversations with border control the last time I was in US, actually the last two times, late fall of '14 and '15. They don't like me very much and probably even less since I published my short story last year, sub title 'NATO is invited to leave'. Total fiction.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU

Nice, you are becoming quite the artists


As for recent ukrop fiasco I would say it has to do with appointment of Tillerson for StateSec. (which happened as I was typing this)

Porky's sponsors could only delay for so long so he made Hail Mary pass in order to generate headlines and try to corner future US foreign policy.

There were two problems however:

1) They got their asses handed to them way more than expected like Isos so nicely counted.

2) With all the noise and panic about Lord Kek in the media, topic of some God forsaken shithole never had any chance of gaining traction with public even though MSM delivered very large volume of the Ukraine related BS last couple of days. To no effect of course. There would have been no effect even a year ago, let alone now.

And neither of those things came as a surprise to anyone with half a brain.

JohninMK wrote:Maybe they have changed the way they report number of rounds fired because they read you here

Well, I got in touch via facebook with a certain Finland guy named Petri Krohn, who happens to know Janus Putkonen, the editor of DONi, so perhaps they realized that 500 rocket launcher "attacks" was a huge amount and requested a clarification from Basurin.

Seriously. I can't believe I am the only guy in the internet that bothers to do a little math. I am not even professional military.

Here are a couple links of interest, I had forgot to check on Fort Russ since they hadn't reported anything worthwile in a long time

Translation of Cassad analysis

Is the War in Donbass Back On? 3 Possible Scenarios

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/02/is-...-possible.html

Eduard Popov Donbass sitrep: Ukrainian losses "colossal," shelling at 2014 level

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/02/edu...ukrainian.html

Hey folks, look at this, defo going to happen this time. Right!

The parties to the conflict in Donbass have agreed to withdraw heavy weaponry by February 5, Special Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office in Ukraine and in the Trilateral Contact Group Martin Sajdik said Wednesday.

MINSK (Sputnik) — Earlier in the day, the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine adopted a statement demanding that heavy armaments be withdrawn from the contact line in Donbass by February 5.

The situation near the industrial town of Avdiivka and neighboring Yasynuvata has been tense for several days, with civilians being deprived of running water, central heating and electricity. The Ukrainian forces and Donbass militia are accusing each other of being responsible for escalation of fighting.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had to interrupt his visit to Germany due to the escalation of the security situation on the line of contact in eastern Ukraine. He also charged his aides with calling for the extraordinary session of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine to discuss the situation.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Moscow was concerned about Kiev's actions in the Donbass region, adding that the Ukrainian authorities were derailing the Minsk peace agreements.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702011050248885-donbass-osce-heave-weapons/

Ispan wrote:

Seriously. I can't believe I am the only guy in the internet that bothers to do a little math. I am not even professional military.

Too modest.

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:We should be so lucky.

I had some lovely conversations with border control the last time I was in US, actually the last two times, late fall of '14 and '15. They don't like me very much and probably even less since I published my short story last year, sub title 'NATO is invited to leave'. Total fiction.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU

Nice, you are becoming quite the artists


As for recent ukrop fiasco I would say it has to do with appointment of Tillerson for StateSec. (which happened as I was typing this)

Porky's sponsors could only delay for so long so he made Hail Mary pass in order to generate headlines and try to corner future US foreign policy.

There were two problems however:

1) They got their asses handed to them way more than expected like Isos so nicely counted.

2) With all the noise and panic about Lord Kek in the media, topic of some God forsaken shithole never had any chance of gaining traction with public even though MSM delivered very large volume of the Ukraine related BS last couple of days. To no effect of course. There would have been no effect even a year ago, let alone now.

And neither of those things came as a surprise to anyone with half a brain.

PM me and and tomorrow I'll send you this one and the big one in PDF. This will keep you reading evenings for a while, especially after you read the reviews.

Orcs are getting their asses handed to them big time, no way they can stand up to fully trained and motivated divisions of Novorossiya troops who are in essence fighting with one hand tied behind their backs. Porky's Hail Mary will not work this time just as it hasn't worked before. It's my understanding there's a lamp post in Kiev with his name on it. Yats will be on the neighboring one. Problem is our boys and our civilians are dying to further Porky's wet dream. Time for this foolishness to end, time to turn the boys loose and tell them to stop when they can see Kharkov, Kherson and the Krimu border.

MSM are still acting as if Obama/Rodham/Kerry are still in power. Perhaps they have not noticed there is a new sheriff in town, not that we in this humble berg have very high hopes of anything changing.

auslander wrote:.........

PM me and and tomorrow I'll send you this one and the big one in PDF. This will keep you reading evenings for a while, especially after you read the reviews.

..............

Thanks buddy! My PM system is zapped but you can email me here: spamtest148@gmail.com

auslander wrote:We should be so lucky.

I had some lovely conversations with border control the last time I was in US, actually the last two times, late fall of '14 and '15. They don't like me very much and probably even less since I published my short story last year, sub title 'NATO is invited to leave'. Total fiction.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU

aaaarrrghh i don't have a kindle

PapaDragon wrote:

auslander wrote:.........

PM me and and tomorrow I'll send you this one and the big one in PDF. This will keep you reading evenings for a while, especially after you read the reviews.

..............

Thanks buddy! My PM system is zapped but you can email me here: spamtest148@gmail.com

I would really like to read it too. Can you spare a copy for me as well ??

Gentlemen, since this is off topic let's move this discussion to this thread:

https://www.russiadefence.net/t4182-never-the-last-one-a-novel-of-spetznaz

From there I can make arrangements to send you the short story An Incident On Simonka. The novel, I've got to talk to my agent about sending that tome but I'm sure arrangements can be made.