The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

Yesterday was the worst day of the entire year, with more than one thousand artillery strikes and weapons attack. Seems the Ukrops are letting loose with everything they have, but strangely enough, they don't dare attack with the infantry, not even in platoon scale, if the auto translate is accurate

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1645258.html

I have reason to believe this is due to the Ukranian army chronic lack of personnel and likely infantry. Mostly from demobilization of the draftees, but non recoverable casualties due to combat are a significant drain as well. I predict 20,000 casualties by the end of this year, of wich at least 5.000 will be dead. On top of this you add desertion and non combat losses, and steadily the Ukranian force keeps shrinking with each year.

Therefore, all this cannonade and fusillade is all they can do for now, since they lack the strenght or the will to launch and all out offensive. I think they are content with sitting out this winter keeping the attrition war going on, and in spring they will see. But they will have to call another mobilization wave, the 7th.

Out of shot on this photo also ukrops artillery bombardments on the southern front by Sakhanka, and also at Dokuchaevsk, where the crossing at Elenovka came under fire and bombardments have been ongoing for several hours. Seems some large ukrops troop movements take place behind their front at Dokuchaevsk, and said to be rotation. IMO all cynical psychological warfare against civilians to make them think offensive may be about to begin on pretext that world is looking at American elections right now. In the frontline NW districts of Gorlovka they have been told to get off the streets and collect emergency packs and get in basement.

It was tried in Gruzya in '08 and it didn't work. What makes them think it will work this time?

Limited imagination mixed with stupidity.

Basurin announced that ukrops made 1702 seperate violations of Minsk today, and the situation is still ongoing. There was a calculation last year that if the daily rate of violations went to 1000+ it would mean imminent offensive, but I think that calculation is not valid now. Marina Kharkova has reported that this may have been a deliberate attempt by ukrops to gain ground at various points of the front, but has been repulsed. Basurin or anybody has given no details of any counter action, but I would guess that reports of many wounded ukrops appearing at Kharkov and Zaparozhia hospitals will soon appear.

I doubt the Ukrops are trying to gain ground, looks more like provocations. You know the media is kind of focused on the US election (I voted Trump btw proves Russians are rigging the election) wouldn't be great if I don't know... someone would send BM-30s over-night, and kind of flattened out some artillery positions?

Khepesh wrote:Basurin announced that ukrops made 1702 seperate violations of Minsk today, and the situation is still ongoing.

The reports always refer to the fighting of last day. Please clarify, yesterday it was 1, 072. It's that a typo? Can't believe it would have jumped to one thousand seven hundred. Basurin did make an announcement today?

There was a calculation last year that if the daily rate of violations went to 1000+ it would mean imminent offensive, but I think that calculation is not valid now. Marina Kharkova has reported that this may have been a deliberate attempt by ukrops to gain ground at various points of the front, but has been repulsed.

seems a lesser offensive, to try to gain some ground somewhere, short of a major breakthrough

Khepesh wrote:Limited imagination mixed with stupidity.

It was a pleasure to see the Flot surge out of harbor, speed limits be damned. Orcs were mightily irritated which was a distinct added pleasure.

VladimirSahin wrote:I doubt the Ukrops are trying to gain ground, looks more like provocations. You know the media is kind of focused on the US election (I voted Trump btw proves Russians are rigging the election) wouldn't be great if I don't know... someone would send BM-30s over-night, and kind of flattened out some artillery positions?

A fair number of orc gunners have been invited to bite the big one and there will be more, many more, as this mess keeps on going.

Good for you on your vote. I can't vote this time which urinates me off big time.

Ispan wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Basurin announced that ukrops made 1702 seperate violations of Minsk today, and the situation is still ongoing.

The reports always refer to the fighting of last day. Please clarify, yesterday it was 1, 072. It's that a typo? Can't believe it would have jumped to one thousand seven hundred. Basurin did make an announcement today?

There was a calculation last year that if the daily rate of violations went to 1000+ it would mean imminent offensive, but I think that calculation is not valid now. Marina Kharkova has reported that this may have been a deliberate attempt by ukrops to gain ground at various points of the front, but has been repulsed.

seems a lesser offensive, to try to gain some ground somewhere, short of a major breakthrough

Typo on the written report, on hearing what he said it was 1070, and that is in the 24 hour period from his briefing yesterday evening to todays evening briefing based on what was known by the time of the briefing at shortly after 1700. Still largest number since early last year. Included in that figure is 112 122mm and 152mm artillery and 390 120mm and 82mm mortars.

Dokuchaevsk last night

Rumor has it that some very high retired brass will be heading for Kiev in the quite near future and rumor has it that they will tell Abizaid to tell the orcs to knock it off, there's a new sheriff in DC. We'll see but the relief here and there from about noon today was palpable with the news from US. In this berg it's the talk of the town.

To save many lives it would be hoped that Kiev will see that it is over and, at least secretly to save face, negotiate a way to end this that does not involve collapse of junta and loss of oligarchs empires.

A few scenarios:

A: Kiev offers to recognize that Crimea is legally part of RF in exchange for Donbass. Probably LDNR would be offered some federal or confederation deal to sweeten this, and Washington/EU could dangle hope of end of sanctions. This would probably seem a good realpolitik solution to many in EU and America, but would be unacceptable to Donbass. This would be a difficult position for Russia as at face value it will seem a good deal, and failure to give up Donbass will seem like pointless intransigence, particularly with promise of end of sanctions. This of course could also be seen as a bitter pill for Kiev to take as well, but the leadership and people know that Crimea is lost forever no matter what happens, so really loose nothing for them. This, other than war scenarios, is the worst as it seems the most "reasonable", but I do not believe Putin will give up Donbass and that this scenario will never happen. And of course Putin does not hold Donbass to give it away, it's inhabitants do.

B: Kiev, seeing the possibility of rapprochement between Russia and America, if not the end of all possibility of America putting serious weapons and even troops into Ukraine, and the end of this dangerous slide to WWIII, will try to stop any rapprochement before it even happens, and that would not occur before inauguration of Trump. I have long said that in the end result, whoever is American president, they have nothing to loose over Ukraine except false pride, and that it is Poroshenko and his gang that have everything to loose, including their lives if they cannot get out in time. Therefore I still believe that Poroshenko may take matters into his own hands and attempt to cause serious damage to LDNR by inflicting localized military defeat and loss of important territory. This would be difficult but not impossible. This will be a huge gamble of course, but election of Trump, IMO, has made this more likely. If, for instance, Obama still had a year or more left in office, or that Clinton had won, then likely Poroshenko would keep to the same plan he has now, whatever it is.

But Poroshenko now faces this possible rapprochement beginning next January, and potential loss of support and no possibility of taking LDNR. If Poroshenko attacks before Trump inauguration he can hope to achieve one or two results. He can attempt to organize a credible "Gleiwitz" incident, and it does not even need to be very convincing for western media, and then launch limited offensive to take Makeevka/Gorlovka or to strike across to border from Dokuchaevsk/Volnovakha, or at least north of Telmanovo. I doubt any serious attempt to take any LNR territory except maybe along the west, Pervomaisk, Alchevsk, if there is an attempt to take Debaltsevo while encirclement of Gorlovka takes place. And I do not doubt LNR would be attacked at least as diversion and to prevent forces being redeployed to Donetsk. If there is no intervention and there is some success and another Illovaisk/southern pot is avoided, then this will cause severe problems for LDNR, and loss of Makeevka and or Gorlovka will be a nightmare and possibly cause evacuation of many civilians from Donetsk city. Loss of Telmanovo and the south would be hard, but not as bad, tho the loss of a large area of arable land will be a serious problem. However, this depends on ability of ukrops and lack of intervention. The first seems lacking, the second, not. Therefore, if Poroshenko takes any action it could be action to provoke intervention on an obvious scale, and so very likely further damage relations between Russia and EU and end hopes of rapprochement between Russia and America. The big gamble for Poroshenko is that he does not provoke the threatened march on Kiev and Odessa. If not, it is "business as usual" for Kiev, and playing the "Victim of Russia card", and that there would even in a limited offensive be many ukrops mothers without sons, life in LDNR would have become a lot harder as there will also have been casualties, and also destruction of houses and infrastructure and possible further loss of territory.

C: Kiev simply gives up on Crimea and Donbass and walks away. Sensible thing to do of course, but will lead to revolution in Kiev and possible breakup of all Ukraine. For the sake of lives, this is the preferred scenario, as I am certain this situation will not end without bloodshed, and less lives may be lost in revolution in Kiev than full scale war if there is a march to Kiev and Odessa. But by the time it comes to any such march Kiev will have collapsed, Transcarpathia rebelled, uprisings in Kharkov and Odessa.

It will all end well, but unfortunately there is a matter of some horror before the end. It is always so.

I'm sure other scenarios are available....

Khepesh,

I don't think any of the above scenarios are likely.

The Kiev junta knows very well that Washington's unconditional backing is pretty much lost. They will not try anything foolish. They know they will have a repeat of the Georgia 5 day war with Russian troops officially involved in the massive counterattack.
As of today, Obama's presidency is for all intents and purposes over. Putin will not hesitate a second if the Ukrops launch a massive attack.

All that the oligarchic rulers look forward to from now on is to cling to power for as long as possible and gobble as much money as possible in order to enjoy a nice and comfortable retirement outside Ukraine.

I have always said this: Sooner or later and one way or the other, Ukraine will go back to Russia's orbit.

It could happen that US president just lets Specnaz hunt those nazi maniacs hoppefully

Ukrappy's try to attempt yet another terror attack in Crimea and failed! Looks like they're getting desperate because of all the current world events.

One of the operations, we saw the good guys gathering Monday. Ukrappy had not a chance. Interesting location for the op, too, but until it becomes public knowledge, which it might not, mums the word for AO.

Edit: I see it's on RT listed but no location. I can live with that.

https://www.rt.com/news/366192-ukrainian-commandos-attacks-crimea/

Also

https://sputniknews.com/russia/201611101047286582-ukrainian-saboteurs-crimea-analysis/

TheArmenian wrote:Khepesh,

I don't think any of the above scenarios are likely.

The Kiev junta knows very well that Washington's unconditional backing is pretty much lost. They will not try anything foolish. They know they will have a repeat of the Georgia 5 day war with Russian troops officially involved in the massive counterattack.
As of today, Obama's presidency is for all intents and purposes over. Putin will not hesitate a second if the Ukrops launch a massive attack.

All that the oligarchic rulers look forward to from now on is to cling to power for as long as possible and gobble as much money as possible in order to enjoy a nice and comfortable retirement outside Ukraine.

I have always said this: Sooner or later and one way or the other, Ukraine will go back to Russia's orbit.

Well they got 3 months.

DNR shipping of supplies of coal to Kiev. Hmm. I wonder why? Getting good money for it?

miketheterrible wrote:DNR shipping of supplies of coal to Kiev.  Hmm. I wonder why? Getting good money for it?

Its not news, they haven't really stopped supplying, its all part of the bi-directional flow of all kinds of stuff, money or barter, who knows but the oligarchs.

Many of Ukraine's power stations are optimised for this type of coal/anthracite. They are also buying from Russia (some of which probably came out of LNR mines) and in large quantities from South Africa but the latter is lower grade.

Oh dear dear, Poro is yet again disappointed by the EU looking after its interests instead of Ukraine's. Now Trump is on his way into power he is going to have to get used to being yesterday's man. He screwed up in 2014 and its been downhill ever since.

This is all about the EU allowing a lot more Russian gas to get into the European pipeline system via Nordstream 1 under the Baltic rather than through Ukraine. This will potentially allow Russia to restrict supply through Ukraine if they start stealing the EU's gas again as they did a few years ago (court case in Stockholm on that coming up). They have to pay upfront for the Russian gas they buy direct. This would increase the net price to Ukraine of any reverse flow gas as they would not be able to offset their transit charge against it.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that the decision of the European Commission to expand Russia’s energy giant Gazprom access to the Opal gas pipeline's capacity did not comply with the spirit of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU and the Energy Community Treaty.

KIEV (Sputnik) — The decision of the European Commission to expand Russia’s energy giant Gazprom access to the Opal gas pipeline's capacity is not in the spirit of the EU-Ukraine energy treaty, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Thursday, according to his press service.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/europe/201611101047313516-eu-commission-poroshenko/

Nope, it's another Russian false flag. Ukraine is too smart to do all that seriously if these fools keep doing this, Kremlin's response might be very harsh on Cyborgland.

Further evidence that the country is probably now exponentially going down the tubes. No industry equals no employment and no tax revenues.

IMF-mandated hikes in electricity prices for businesses have made whole sectors of the Ukrainian economy uncompetitive, making it more profitable to shut factories down than to keep them operating, says Ukraine's oldest and largest business association.

Speaking in Kiev on Thursday at the Ukrainian League of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs' annual conference, president Anatoly Kinakh pointed out with dismay that authorities in Kiev did not bother to carry out the necessary economic calculations when they decided to raise tariffs. "Where are the necessary technical and economic calculations?" the official asked. "Where were the forecasts about how this will affect the competitiveness of our economy? How does the tariff increase correlate to consumers' ability to pay? There are no answers to these questions. And this is very serious, because all we are doing is seeing the decline of citizens' standard of living."

For example, Kinakh noted, the massive Zaporozhye aluminum plant has recently been forced to stop operations completely due to the high cost of electricity; its energy-intensive production has been made uncompetitive thanks to whopping 40% electricity price hikes and the end of subsidies.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/europe/201611111047334814-ukraine-energy-price-catastrophic-consequences/