The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

Ukraine removes last conscripts from front lines

November 2, 2016

http://conflict-watch.com/2016/11/02/ukraine-removes-last-conscripts-front-lines/

(AFP)

KIEV: Ukraine said Wednesday it no longer had conscripted soldiers fighting pro-Russian insurgents for the first time since a conflict that has claimed nearly 10,000 lives began in April 2014.

The announcement by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko comes as the former Soviet republic tries to form a fully professional army that can conform to NATO standards and one day join the Western military bloc.

Ukraine resumed conscription shortly after the ouster of Russian-backed President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 was followed by the Kremlin annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in the separatist east.

“I, as the president and commander-in-chief, can report to the Ukrainian people that now, there is not a single conscripted soldier on the front or in the area of the anti-terrorist operation,” the presidency quoted Poroshenko as saying.

Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders refer to the insurgents who control parts of its industrial heartland as ‘terrorists’ who are backed by soldiers and equipment from Russia — a charge Moscow denies.

“The armed forces of Ukraine must be fully comprised of volunteers and contract soldier who are well-prepared, motivated, trained and fully supplied.”

The announcement suggests that Ukraine does not foresee an immediate resurgence in fighting that has calmed and been limited to certain regions since an internationally mediated truce was signed in February 2015.

Conscripted soldiers who did not avoid the draft through various technicalities have been widely viewed as one of the weakest links in the Ukrainian armed forces.

The military also includes volunteer soldiers who have joined various brigades and contracted soldiers who answer to Ukraine’s interior and defense ministries.

They have a reputation for being the most ferocious fighters but have also come under criticism for committing human rights violations and torturing rebels and their supporters in the war zone.

Militia fighters have faced similar charges and Poroshenko has repeatedly vowed to investigate such allegations made by various global rights groups.

Chief of Staff General Viktor Muzhenko said 90,000 professional soldiers have enlisted in Ukraine’s armed forces since one of Europe’s bloodiest conflicts since the Balkans Wars of the 1990s erupted 30 months ago.

Muzhenko did not say how many professional and volunteer soldiers were currently based in the country’s east.

Kiev claims to be fighting a rebel force of 40,000 that is backed by at least 6,000 Russian soldiers.

The separatists have never divulged their military figures and also deny receiving Moscow’s support.

Regarding conscription, I think they are lying. The last levvies were still being kept in the ranks, and Kiev cannot do without these troops. If Novorussians reports are to be believed, all Ukrainian units have personnel shortages, and those thousands of casualties have to be replaced.

I think is an annoucement for public consumption, they were planning to do a 7th movilization and only the truly desperate would join the army for a salary.

As far as I know, the junta keeps press ganging recruits. My wife found out talking to a state lawyer that deals with foreigners issues that many Ukrainians living in Spain and whose permits expire request political asylum in order to dodge the draft.

It's political speak, there are still conscripts but none in the Donbass.

Aside from the Ukrop november offensive being as hard as the worst days of summer, here's something posted in another forum.

A freight train loaded with T-72s in West Ukraine. Waiting for Khepesh to take a look at these. I suspect they might be a transfer from Poland or other former Warsaw Pact country.



��: Long column of tanks loaded on a freight train in Ivano-Frankivsk - #Ukraine
*

"Ukraine doesn't have T-72's"...Lol.

Btw Knyaz? Really?

Polish T-72s never had ERA, they're old M/M1 variant and the modernized variant PT-91 is still in service and looks quite different.

Saakashvili resigns, slams door hard behind him after throwing metaphorical hand grenade. http://112.ua/mnenie/ya-ustal-mne-eto-vse-nadoelo-polnyy-tekst-zayavleniya-saakashvili-o-svoey-otstavke-350957.html

Says "I am tired, I've had enough" and accuses Kiev leadership and Poroshenko in person of "Unprecedented scale of corruption", complains that for anything to be done needs bribes or months of waiting, that the positions of district administrators are sold, that it is all criminal clans etc etc. Nothing new of course, and hypocrisy from a man such as Saakashvili, but such a very public temper tantrum, he did this on live TV from Odessa, and the storming off is amusing, and will add to the despondency in Kiev.



There was also this rant about corruption in October

Ispan wrote:Waiting for Khepesh to take a look at these.

T-72AV due to T-64 type brick placement on turret. Also normal placement of ZIP bin on left of turret and placement of OPVT show these are ex Soviet, as other countries, such as Syria and India, with A models or M upgraded to A or AV standard have different arrangements, usually no ZIP on left of turret and OPVT, if carried, on rear left of turret, not on rear ZIP.

Khepesh wrote:

Ispan wrote:Waiting for Khepesh to take a look at these.

T-72AV due to T-64 type brick placement on turret. These can only be ex Soviet.

So the Ukrops took their T-72 tanks all the way to Western Ukraine for maneuvers there? Look at how muddy the running gear is.




Does not make sense to me, unless they are concerned that holding maneuvers closer to the front would be spied on by pro-Russian civilians.



What's your take about this intense positional fighting? Are they hitting as hard as they can without breaching Minsk? Or are they really attempting to breakthrough all the time? In that case, what are they doing wih their tanks? They seem to be sitting idle or at most fire a few cannon shells from long distance.

Possibly Kiev is simply keeping it's forces occupied, even at low level, as if they all sit about doing nothing, then they might try things like "thinking" and come to conclusions about needing to go to Kiev and change government. I probably said this a hundred times, Poroshenko cannot stop ATO as it would be seen as defeat and he will end up like Najibullah, so he has to keep all the radikals and other loonies occupied at the front until something breaks.

I have not doubt that Ukraine has been and will receive the sovietic warfare remaining in Eastern Europe, basically for spare parts. They have some incentive to do it this way because the Ukrainian sovietic warfare is old but original, while in the rest of Eastern Europe that can supply to them (except Moldova), the sovietic warfare is old and of export or local variants, and as consequence less capable. Ukraine has some military interest about to restore their own stored material if possible. Also I do not think Ukraine is receiving sovietic material combat ready. Surely it works not.

Ispan wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Ispan wrote:Waiting for Khepesh to take a look at these.

T-72AV due to T-64 type brick placement on turret. These can only be ex Soviet.

So the Ukrops took their T-72 tanks all the way to Western Ukraine for maneuvers there? Look at how muddy the running gear is.




Does not make sense to me, unless they are concerned that holding maneuvers closer to the front would be spied on by pro-Russian civilians.



What's your take about this intense positional fighting? Are they hitting as hard as they can without breaching Minsk? Or are they really attempting to breakthrough all the time? In that case, what are they doing wih their tanks? They seem to be sitting idle or at most fire a few cannon shells from long distance.

I think they are muddy because they have probably driven along muddy track instead of road for a distance to get to rail sidings. Upper hull and turrets are shiny clean, so if they had been on maneuvers they have been washed down and then just got running gear muddied. There are various scenarios for this, all boringly normal. And as to what they are doing with their tanks at the front, heavy duty sniping. There are some hits on buildings that have come from rounds with very flat trajectory, as would be case from tanks.

Given the amount of soldiers and the variety of vehicles on the train, could this just be a unit 'rotating' to or from the ATO?

correct me if i'm wrong but i was pretty sure the only T-72s in Ukraine inventory was T-72B, T-72B1 and the T-72BM

edit .. just found out they are upgraded T-72Bs from 1992 designated T-72AM "Banan"

I am not sure if designation T-72AM "Banan" exists as more than one or two prototypes, rather like many other prototypes such as T-72AMG or T-72UA1. They build one or two of these things and so it's designation enters the lists and people think it is a type in production and service, but rarely, if ever, leave the testing grounds.

However, when I saw the photo I immediately thought T-72AV, then looked closer at turret and see what looks like the underside of the typical T-72B front turret bulge and made my post to say this may be modified T-72B. Then realized that Kontakt I bricks will not neatly cover the front of the turret in "V" pattern, that is why on T-72B they are placed seperately over the turret. So I think this cannot be based on T-72B and is essentially an AV, no matter what name ukrops may give it.

Khepesh wrote:Saakashvili resigns, slams door hard behind him after throwing metaphorical hand grenade. http://112.ua/mnenie/ya-ustal-mne-eto-vse-nadoelo-polnyy-tekst-zayavleniya-saakashvili-o-svoey-otstavke-350957.html

Says "I am tired, I've had enough" and accuses Kiev leadership and Poroshenko in person of "Unprecedented scale of corruption", complains that for anything to be done needs bribes or months of waiting, that the positions of district administrators are sold, that it is all criminal clans etc etc. Nothing new of course, and hypocrisy from a man such as Saakashvili, but such a very public temper tantrum, he did this on live TV from Odessa, and the storming off is amusing, and will add to the despondency in Kiev.

.......................

Well:

1) He should know

2) Did he honestly expect anything different?

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Saakashvili resigns, slams door hard behind him after throwing metaphorical hand grenade. http://112.ua/mnenie/ya-ustal-mne-eto-vse-nadoelo-polnyy-tekst-zayavleniya-saakashvili-o-svoey-otstavke-350957.html

Says "I am tired, I've had enough" and accuses Kiev leadership and Poroshenko in person of "Unprecedented scale of corruption", complains that for anything to be done needs bribes or months of waiting, that the positions of district administrators are sold, that it is all criminal clans etc etc. Nothing new of course, and hypocrisy from a man such as Saakashvili, but such a very public temper tantrum, he did this on live TV from Odessa, and the storming off is amusing, and will add to the despondency in Kiev.

.......................

Well:

1) He should know

2) Did he honestly expect anything different?

He has clearly run out of corruption opportunities for himself!

Ukriane is openly threatening Russia (along with Moldova doing the same) regarding Transnistria and how if the Russians do not leave by next year they will be attacked. This is the only hope that Novorussia now has since Ukraine can continuously attack DNR and LNR undisputed, and consistently, without facing repercussions. But if they do strike at Russian peacekeepers, there will be a repeat of 2008 and Ukraine could be disbanded as a country in its current self. If not, then DNR and LNR is sitting in a poor position with the mass amount of hardware Ukraine is moving to the borders and the lack of armor the DNR/LNR have.

miketheterrible wrote:Ukriane is openly threatening Russia (along with Moldova doing the same) regarding Transnistria and how if the Russians do not leave by next year they will be attacked.  This is the only hope that Novorussia now has since Ukraine can continuously attack DNR and LNR undisputed, and consistently, without facing repercussions.  But if they do strike at Russian peacekeepers, there will be a repeat of 2008 and Ukraine could be disbanded as a country in its current self.  If not, then DNR and LNR is sitting in a poor position with the mass amount of hardware Ukraine is moving to the borders and the lack of armor the DNR/LNR have.

Welcome to the thread Mike. You have an interesting view on the situation.

Transnistria is not part of this thread so I won't comment on that. It belongs here https://www.russiadefence.net/t3059-moldova-and-transnistria-situation-thread

Not sure how long you have been following the situation in Donbas but, contary to what you say, they are not in a particularly bad situation, indeed, they probably have as much armour as they need given that their function is to act as a tripwire. A short distance behind them is one of the best, if not the best, strike forces on the planet, fully trained for this particular task and ready to go. Russia is no longer the country it was in Spring 2014.

Ispan wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Ispan wrote:Waiting for Khepesh to take a look at these.

T-72AV due to T-64 type brick placement on turret. These can only be ex Soviet.

So the Ukrops took their T-72 tanks all the way to Western Ukraine for maneuvers there? Look at how muddy the running gear is.




Does not make sense to me, unless they are concerned that holding maneuvers closer to the front would be spied on by pro-Russian civilians.



What's your take about this intense positional fighting? Are they hitting as hard as they can without breaching Minsk? Or are they really attempting to breakthrough all the time? In that case, what are they doing wih their tanks? They seem to be sitting idle or at most fire a few cannon shells from long distance.

They are indeed taking their tanks in WU, because the training program from the "Good Guys" is still up. Last year they held around this period a brigade level training session, now they will probably do the same although this is closer to a understrength battalion, more tanks will come or have already been sent or this will serve as RedFor (makes sense to have a Russian tank platoon with T-72's).

Also those are AV's and one rearranged A posturing as a B.

I wanted to add something absolutely gianormously hilarious.

Situation in Ukraine summed up:

https://twitter.com/fedun_leonid/status/795263310203482112

JohninMK wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Ukriane is openly threatening Russia (along with Moldova doing the same) regarding Transnistria and how if the Russians do not leave by next year they will be attacked.  This is the only hope that Novorussia now has since Ukraine can continuously attack DNR and LNR undisputed, and consistently, without facing repercussions.  But if they do strike at Russian peacekeepers, there will be a repeat of 2008 and Ukraine could be disbanded as a country in its current self.  If not, then DNR and LNR is sitting in a poor position with the mass amount of hardware Ukraine is moving to the borders and the lack of armor the DNR/LNR have.

Welcome to the thread Mike. You have an interesting view on the situation.

Transnistria is not part of this thread so I won't comment on that. It belongs here https://www.russiadefence.net/t3059-moldova-and-transnistria-situation-thread

Not sure how long you have been following the situation in Donbas but, contary to what you say, they are not in a particularly bad situation, indeed, they probably have as much armour as they need given that their function is to act as a tripwire. A short distance behind them is one of the best, if not the best, strike forces on the planet, fully trained for this particular task and ready to go. Russia is no longer the country it was in Spring 2014.

Yes and no. Russia came to limited aid and while they may come again, there is a chance they won't. It is a gamble. While DNR and LNR troops proven their capabilities, they are still under equipped and that is their disadvantage. If they could obtain more armor and heavier weapons like artillery as well as more Osa or Geckos, they would be sitting on gold.

Their foot troops though are as good as they come.

[quote="miketheterrible"][quote="JohninMK"]

miketheterrible wrote:Ukriane is openly threatening Russia (along with Moldova doing the same) regarding Transnistria and how if the Russians do not leave by next year they will be attacked.  This is the only hope that Novorussia now has since Ukraine can continuously attack DNR and LNR undisputed, and consistently, without facing repercussions.  But if they do strike at Russian peacekeepers, there will be a repeat of 2008 and Ukraine could be disbanded as a country in its current self.  If not, then DNR and LNR is sitting in a poor position with the mass amount of hardware Ukraine is moving to the borders and the lack of armor the DNR/LNR have.
Yes and no. Russia came to limited aid and while they may come again, there is a chance they won't. It is a gamble. While DNR and LNR troops proven their capabilities, they are still under equipped and that is their disadvantage. If they could obtain more armor and heavier weapons like artillery as well as more Osa or Geckos, they would be sitting on gold.

Their foot troops though are as good as they come.

He's back.

auslander wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Ukriane is openly threatening Russia (along with Moldova doing the same) regarding Transnistria and how if the Russians do not leave by next year they will be attacked.  This is the only hope that Novorussia now has since Ukraine can continuously attack DNR and LNR undisputed, and consistently, without facing repercussions.  But if they do strike at Russian peacekeepers, there will be a repeat of 2008 and Ukraine could be disbanded as a country in its current self.  If not, then DNR and LNR is sitting in a poor position with the mass amount of hardware Ukraine is moving to the borders and the lack of armor the DNR/LNR have.
Yes and no. Russia came to limited aid and while they may come again, there is a chance they won't. It is a gamble. While DNR and LNR troops proven their capabilities, they are still under equipped and that is their disadvantage. If they could obtain more armor and heavier weapons like artillery as well as more Osa or Geckos, they would be sitting on gold.

Their foot troops though are as good as they come.

He's back.

In the New York groove.

This is how I see it. For all I know, smhtf after US elections.

As said earlier, Ukraine didn't sit idle and amassed a large force. Although, it could be all junk.  I am looking at it in the view of worst outcome. Who knows, Ukraine could fall to the same traps and DNR/LNR could capture more spare equipment.

Or you can assume I am someone with an agenda. But it doesn't dislodge the point that there are worries and issues to address.