New Multipolar World

Russia & China continue ditching US dollars in settlements in favor of national currencies, 04/09/2021.

Gazprom Neft will switch from US dollars to yuan and rubles to pay for refueling aircraft flying to or from China, the company’s CEO Alexander Dyukov told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum.

“We are starting in September, and by the end of the year we can transfer virtually all payments for aviation fuel in China to yuan,” Dyukov said. He added that settlements for refueling Chinese airliners at Russian airports will be converted into rubles.

The agreement has been reached between Gazprom Neft, which operates 34 airports in China, and China's national jet fuel operator, after a lengthy period of talks regarding a move away from making payments in US dollars.

This is the first time, however, for the Russian-Chinese aviation fuel business to transfer payments to national currencies. According to Dyukov, test settlements in yuan and rubles showed an additional economic effect.

Dyukov also said his company and the Chinese operator plan to double total volumes of aircraft fueling both in Russia and China to some 250,000 tons by 2025. The total volume of Gazprom Neft aircraft fueling stations in China increased to 56.5 thousand tons in the first half of 2021, 12% higher than the same period last year and 29% higher than in 2019.

Moscow and Beijing have been pushing for a greater role of their respective currencies on the global financial market and have made a number of steps to lower their US dollar holdings in the past several years.

https://www.rt.com/business/533870-russia-china-ditch-dollar-transactions/

Russia and the United States agreed to build a replacement for the UN, by Dmitry Bavyrin for VZGLYAD. 03.03.2023.

The G20, which consists of 19 states and the EU, has accepted another union - the African Union. This reform shows that the G20 can become the basis of a new global architecture, no longer composed of countries, but of blocs. The emergence of such a "new world" has been warned for a long time, and the struggle of the superpowers for Africa has clearly brought it closer.

It is hard to even imagine that Russia and the United States can now agree on something concrete, except for abstract constructions "for all the good things." For example, both Moscow and Washington say what peace is in Ukraine, but they see its implementation in practice in too different ways.

And now: at a meeting of the heads of the foreign ministries of the G20 states (that is, Russia, the United States, the European Union and 17 other largest economies in the world), they reaffirmed their “commitment to combat climate change”, but could not even agree on a joint final statement.

Specifically, they did not agree on two points: with a direct and indirect condemnation of Russian actions in Ukraine, which was opposed not only by Russia, but also by China (however, we note that India was not the host of the summit, honestly trying to achieve unity from the guests at least in something) anything).

But there is a significant exception: the G20 nevertheless agreed to admit another full-fledged member of the club - this is the African Union . Everyone came out in support - both the United States and Russia, although from the point of view of the Russian language, the life of journalists will now become more complicated (G21 is against the "big twenty-one", there are more obscene options).

It would seem that this is also not news in an era when, under the slogan BLM (“Black Lives Matter”), cities are being smashed, and entire states are obsessed with “diversity”. Something like this was to be expected, although the point here is not BLM at all and not political correctness. The fact is that Africa is “not the same anymore”, although this is also not news.

More precisely, Africa is still very diverse, and the African Union includes states that are not much alike, including suffering and unpromising ones. However, the continent, which previously had deposits of minerals and super-minerals, has for some time now had money, some kind of middle class and an interest in development.

In part, Africa is turning into an important market, a promising space for investment, a pantry of new opportunities. In the conditions of the redistribution of the world, a real struggle has unfolded for it, and Russia has a very strong position , while the shares of Western countries are falling sharply.

A good example is Sergei Lavrov's "double tour" of the Black Continent. At the same time, the president of France, which previously had a huge influence on its former colonies, set off on a large African voyage.

The difference is that Lavrov is already preparing the second Russia-Africa summit with the participation of all countries of the continent (Africans see Moscow as an important partner ). And the journey of Emmanuel Macron took place against the backdrop of the collapse of previous geopolitical constructions: the French military was shown the door to Burkina Faso, where they were located for more than half a century, and are preparing to do the same in Niger, where Paris has the largest military base on the continent.

“The era of French Africa is over,” Macron admits , pretending this is good news for him as informal tutelage over former colonies is being replaced by a “new balanced partnership.” It is clear that this is an attempt to put a good face on a bad game, a way to maintain influence under a new sign. The main thing is that this is part of all the same processes - the struggle for the location of African countries.

However, the adoption of the African Union in the G20 is something more. It is possible that this is a key step towards the construction of a new world order - more precisely, a new organization that will monitor the world order.

Now this task is entrusted to the UN and the UN Security Council, created as a result of the Second World War.

The UN is not coping with its task - everyone recognizes this, but nothing better has yet been invented, which is also recognized by almost everyone.

Russia is also interested in preserving the UN due to the fact that it has the right of veto in the Security Council. However, the emergence of at least one more organization of this type in the future is very likely due to the fact that the current one does not reflect the real balance of power, and its “birth trauma” cannot be treated.

This is more from the field of futurism than real political planning, but a significant part of experts both here and in the West believe that the new "international Areopagus" will be tailored according to the principle of blocs - if not military-political, then at least economic (in which without politics, too).

The adoption of the African Union in the G20 as a full member, but as a bloc, is a step in this direction. And this is not the first step. In the G20, only 19 members are countries, and the 20th is the European Union.

It is not difficult to foresee further steps: why are only unions of Europeans and Africans represented in the organization? There are similar blocs in Southeast Asia (ASEAN; 10 countries), the Arabs (League of Arab States; 22 countries), and in Latin America there are several of them: for socialists - the Bolivarian Alliance (10 countries), for deep integration - MERCOSUR (four countries), for all in general - CELAC, Community of Latin American and Caribbean States.

On the Russian side, in this regard, we can recall the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Intersections should not be embarrassing, just as it was not embarrassing before that Germany, Italy and France are represented in the G20 both “personally” and as part of the EU. South Africa is also a member both there and in the African Union, from Southeast Asia in the G20 Indonesia, and from the Arabs - Saudi Arabia.

The only embarrassing thing is that the construction of the new world is preceded by the destruction of the old. Now the process is underway - and no one knows how it can end. The search for a balance of interests through the representation of economic blocs with individual membership of the richest and most influential states is just one of the many ideas discussed: perhaps bad, perhaps, on the contrary, excellent, when compared with what will be built in the end.

But a start has been made, and with the ardent support of the warring powers. And this basically proves that the new can be built on the foundation of the old. Not necessarily on the ruins formed during the fierce struggle for world peace.

https://vz.ru/politics/2023/3/3/1201576.html

Former Taiwanese president plans historic trip – media, 03.20.2023.

Ma Ying-jeou will pay a visit to China this month amid increased tensions with Beijing, his office has reportedly confirmed.

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou, who made history by meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in 2015, reportedly plans to break new diplomatic ground again by making an unprecedented trip to the mainland later this month.

Ma will travel to China from March 27 to April 7 and visit the cities of Nanjing, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing, and Shanghai, his office confirmed to Reuters on Sunday. His representatives did not disclose whether he intends to meet with Xi or any other Chinese government officials during the trip.

The visit will mark the first trip to the mainland by a current or former Taiwanese leader since Chiang Kai-shek’s supporters fled to the island in 1949. Chiang held his last meeting with Mao Zedong, leader of the Chinese communist revolution, in 1945. Then-President Ma and Xi held their historic 2015 summit in Singapore, seeking to ease tensions and boost cooperation.

Since Ma’s successor, Tsai Ing-wen, took office in 2016, relations between the self-governing island and Beijing have deteriorated. China, which considers Taiwan to be a breakaway province and still part of its sovereign territory, has vowed to reunify with the island. The US government recognizes, but does not endorse, China’s claim to Taiwan under the One-China policy.

However, tensions in the Taiwan Strait have escalated since last August, when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defied warnings from Beijing and went through with a planned visit to Taipei. China responded by ramping up military drills around Taiwan and cutting off military and climate ties with Washington. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry warned earlier this month of a possible “total blockade” of the Taiwan Strait by Chinese forces.

Ma remains a senior member of Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party. The KMT has traditionally opposed pushes for full Taiwanese independence and has sought peaceful relations with China. KMT deputy chairman Andrew Hsia visited Beijing last month and met with Wang Huning, a senior Chinese Communist Party leader.

Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which has accused the KMT of seeking to sell out Taiwan, condemned Hsia for going to “pay court to the communists.” The current president also blocked Ma’s planned trip to Hong Kong in 2016, citing security concerns, and he was forced to give his speech on cross-strait relations via teleconference.

Ma will visit sites connected to World War II and the 1911 revolution that ousted the last Chinese emperor and launched the Republic of China, his office said.

https://www.rt.com/news/573251-taiwan-ex-president-to-visit-china/

In Moscow, Xi and Putin Bury Pax Americana, by Pepe Escobar for The Cradle. 03.22.2023.

What has just taken place in Moscow is nothing less than a new Yalta, which, incidentally, is in Crimea. But unlike the momentous meeting of US President Franklin Roosevelt, Soviet Leader Joseph Stalin, and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in USSR-run Crimea in 1945, this is the first time in arguably five centuries that no political leader from the west is setting the global agenda.

It’s Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin that are now running the multilateral, multipolar show. Western exceptionalists may deploy their crybaby routines as much as they want: nothing will change the spectacular optics, and the underlying substance of this developing world order, especially for the Global South.

What Xi and Putin are setting out to do was explained in detail before their summit, in two Op-Eds penned by the presidents themselves. Like a highly-synchronized Russian ballet, Putin’s vision was laid out in the People’s Daily in China, focusing on a “future-bound partnership,” while Xi’s was published in the Russian Gazette and the RIA Novosti website, focusing on a new chapter in cooperation and common development.

Right from the start of the summit, the speeches by both Xi and Putin drove the NATO crowd into a hysterical frenzy of anger and envy: Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova perfectly captured the mood when she remarked that the west was “foaming at the mouth.”

The front page of the Russian Gazette on Monday was iconic: Putin touring Nazi-free Mariupol, chatting with residents, side by side with Xi’s Op-Ed. That was, in a nutshell, Moscow’s terse response to Washington’s MQ-9 Reaper stunt and the International Criminal Court (ICC) kangaroo court shenanigans. “Foam at the mouth” as much as you like; NATO is in the process of being thoroughly humiliated in Ukraine.

During their first “informal” meeting, Xi and Putin talked for no less than four and a half hours. At the end, Putin personally escorted Xi to his limo. This conversation was the real deal: mapping out the lineaments of multipolarity – which starts with a solution for Ukraine.

Predictably, there were very few leaks from the sherpas, but there was quite a significant one on their “in-depth exchange” on Ukraine. Putin politely stressed he respects China’s position – expressed in Beijing’s 12-point conflict resolution plan, which has been completely rejected by Washington. But the Russian position remains ironclad: demilitarization, Ukrainian neutrality, and enshrining the new facts on the ground.

In parallel, the Russian Foreign Ministry completely ruled out a role for the US, UK, France, and Germany in future Ukraine negotiations: they are not considered neutral mediators.
 
A multipolar patchwork quilt

The next day was all about business: everything from energy and “military-technical” cooperation to improving the efficacy of trade and economic corridors running through Eurasia.

Russia already ranks first as a natural gas supplier to China – surpassing Turkmenistan and Qatar – most of it via the 3,000 km Power of Siberia pipeline that runs from Siberia to China’s northeastern Heilongjiang province, launched in December 2019. Negotiations on the Power of Siberia II pipeline via Mongolia are advancing fast.

Sino-Russian cooperation in high-tech will go through the roof: 79 projects at over $165 billion. Everything from liquified natural gas (LNG) to aircraft construction, machine tool construction, space research, agro-industry, and upgraded economic corridors.

The Chinese president explicitly said he wants to link the New Silk Road projects to the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU). This BRI-EAEU interpolation is a natural evolution. China has already signed an economic cooperation deal with the EAEU. Russian macroeconomic uber-strategist Sergey Glazyev’s ideas are finally bearing fruit.

And last but not least, there will be a new drive towards mutual settlements in national currencies – and between Asia and Africa, and Latin America. For all practical purposes, Putin endorsed the role of the Chinese yuan as the new trade currency of choice while the complex discussions on a new reserve currency backed by gold and/or commodities proceed.

This joint economic/business offensive ties in with the concerted Russia-China diplomatic offensive to remake vast swathes of West Asia and Africa.

Chinese diplomacy works like the matryoshka (Russian stacking dolls) in terms of delivering subtle messages. It’s far from coincidental that Xi’s trip to Moscow exactly coincides with the 20th anniversary of American ‘Shock and Awe’ and the illegal invasion, occupation, and destruction of Iraq.

In parallel, over 40 delegations from Africa arrived in Moscow a day before Xi to take part in a “Russia-Africa in the Multipolar World” parliamentary conference – a run-up to the second Russia-Africa summit next July.

The area surrounding the Duma looked just like the old Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) days when most of Africa kept very close anti-imperialist relations with the USSR.

Putin chose this exact moment to write off more than $20 billion in African debt.

In West Asia, Russia-China are acting totally in synch. West Asia. The Saudi-Iran rapprochement was actually jump-started by Russia in Baghdad and Oman: it was these negotiations that led to the signing of the deal in Beijing. Moscow is also coordinating the Syria-Turkiye rapprochement discussions. Russian diplomacy with Iran – now under strategic partnership status – is kept on a separate track.

Diplomatic sources confirm that Chinese intelligence, via its own investigations, is now fully assured of Putin’s vast popularity across Russia, and even within the country’s political elites. That means conspiracies of the regime-change variety are out of the question. This was fundamental for Xi and the Zhongnanhai’s (China’s central HQ for party and state officials) decision to “bet” on Putin as a trusted partner in the coming years, considering he may run and win the next presidential elections. China is always about continuity.

So the Xi-Putin summit definitively sealed China-Russia as comprehensive strategic partners for the long haul, committed to developing serious geopolitical and geoeconomic competition with declining western hegemons.

This is the new world born in Moscow this week. Putin previously defined it as a new anti-colonial policy. It’s now laid out as a multipolar patchwork quilt. There’s no turning back on the demolition of the remnants of Pax Americana.

'Changes that haven’t happened in 100 years’

In Before European Hegemony: The World System A.D. 1250-1350, Janet Abu-Lughod built a carefully constructed narrative showing the prevailing multipolar order when the West “lagged behind the ‘Orient.’” Later, the West only “pulled ahead because the ‘Orient’ was temporarily in disarray.”

We may be witnessing a similarly historic shift in the making, trespassed by a revival of Confucianism (respect for authority, emphasis on social harmony), the equilibrium inherent to the Tao, and the spiritual power of Eastern Orthodoxy. This is, indeed, a civilizational fight.

Moscow, finally welcoming the first sunny days of Spring, provided this week a larger-than-life illustration of “weeks where decades happen” compared to “decades where nothing happens.”

The two presidents bid farewell in a poignant manner.

Xi: “Now, there are changes that haven’t happened in 100 years. When we are together, we drive these changes.”

Putin: “I agree.”

Xi: “Take care, dear friend.”

Putin: “Have a safe trip.”

Here’s to a new day dawning, from the lands of the Rising Sun to the Eurasian steppes.

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/in-moscow-xi-and-putin-bury-pax-americana/#comments

By the way, this is the very same guy who put some light on MH17, too.