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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

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    whir


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    Post  whir Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:00 pm

    Khepesh wrote:Twenty pravy sektor went into Mukachevo, ten remain at large and will likely not be in Transcarpathia now but Lvov or Rivno. Against ten men is only an ATO in the sense that an operation against a few terrorists in Dagestan is technically an ATO. But here ATO is being used as a major military operation against not terrorists, but a rebellion. So, if this really is against ten men it is ridiculous, if not, then it could be a repressive operation to stop a rebellion before it happens, a warning to any who are discontent with Kiev junta.
    To me this is just another farce, that can lead to serious consequences but a farce nonetheless, RS stepped over someone's else interests, since smuggling business is serious business in Ukraine, and now Kiev is trying to twist they arm into obedience.

    Look how different things are in Odessa were they're trying to reorganise the smuggling business via a face lift since they know the regions is "susceptible to separatism" Misha dixit.

    Zakarpattia is a different political animal, nationalism is high there and they feel that Kiev has not done enough for their cause mainly because a big chunk of the population continue being dependent on smuggling to survive. RS or more precisely the local organisations that form RS are run like family businesses in the traditional mafiosi style. RS have driven many local caciques out of business because they were too greedy and that has assured them popular support because their racketeering practices have been welcomed as a lesser evil.

    Hungary playing hardball handing out passports left and right does not help either since what once was seen as shortcut to EU today is becoming a serious political option in contradistinction to Kiev policies, obviously not to the extent we have seen in other regions but it's a start.

    Kiev in a difficult position and if they unleash this ATO against locals they're going to feel the consequences one way or another. They failed to curb separatism and now they're failing to curb nationalism, the situation appears be worrisome enough for Kiev to intensify bombardment in the East and call for a telephonic conference among the Normandy quartet.
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    Post  Neutrality Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:20 pm

    Do you think the Normandy 4 meeting has something to do with the situation in Zakarpatyia? If that's true then I wonder why Poroshenko would want to consult with Hollande and Merkel about, not even to mention Putin? The situation in Mukachevo is entirely his doing and no way he's going to spin the Putin-is-sabotaging-Western-Ukraine bullshit story here.
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    Post  auslander Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:33 pm

    Nothing will happen to the right sector thugs who did the deed in Mukachevo, they have already faded away, back to their nests in other near and far cities in orcland. I would aver that the orcs smelled a rat in and around Mukachevo and decided to act first and to take control of the lucrative smuggling business, hence Porky's show of force which is not only to put fear in Mukachevo but all or orcland.

    In regards to MH17, we all knew while bodies were still falling from the sky who would be blamed and you can rest assured that the 'investigative report' will be massaged to give the desired result. It then remains to be seen what evidence will be promulgated to negate the report and, although we will never know what was said, I would dearly loved to have been a fly on the wall during Mr. Putin's chat with the Dutch. I have few doubts that RF does have damning evidence as to who did it and it is possible that the Dutch, whom I have little sympathy for, are now squirming in their soft seats, caught between what their masters want and what Mr. Putin may have hinted at.

    The situation in Novorossiya is steadily getting more violent against the civilians, the bombardments are increasing daily in volume and violence. You may have noticed that OSCE has virtually disappeared from Novorossiya since the news and locals began to photo the OSCE operatives and ID them. In essence they ran once they were outed.

    I do not know if or when an attack from either side will occur but I, like Kepesh, am beginning to believe it will be soon. Every shell, every mortar, every shot by the orcs to our citizens is being recorded and verified, often right down to the individual orc who pulled the lanyard or trigger. The training of our boys has been excellent and virtually all their equipment and weapons are in top shape with supply in good hand in case they have to attack. In essence the orcs have been attacking for over four months now with the ever increasing and now ceaseless bombardments of our cities and towns plus almost daily local infantry and AFV attacks, most of which are promptly stopped in their tracks but we are losing civilians and soldiers ever day, far fewer than the orcs but still, each one is a tragedy for us. Regardless of our increased numbers in the lines we are still very thin.

    I think in the next two weeks or less the tale will be told and I have no doubts our boys will be victorious but the cost will not be low for both them and our civilians, let alone what The West will try to do to RF and us down here in this sleepy little village. So be it.


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    Post  auslander Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:37 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Do you think the Normandy 4 meeting has something to do with the situation in Zakarpatyia? If that's true then I wonder why Poroshenko would want to consult with Hollande and Merkel about, not even to mention Putin? The situation in Mukachevo is entirely his doing and no way he's going to spin the Putin-is-sabotaging-Western-Ukraine bullshit story here.

    He, Mutti and Golland will spin it as VVP's total fault one way or the other. The meeting was supposed to be today but I have heard nothing of it up to two hours ago. Poroshenko will not wipe his butt without approval from DC, Berlin and Paris.
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    Post  whir Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:37 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Do you think the Normandy 4 meeting has something to do with the situation in Zakarpatyia? If that's true then I wonder why Poroshenko would want to consult with Hollande and Merkel about, not even to mention Putin? The situation in Mukachevo is entirely his doing and no way he's going to spin the Putin-is-sabotaging-Western-Ukraine bullshit story here.
    Kiev can't handle two fronts so if he wants to tackle the Mukacheve fiasco first he needs to ease the pressure in the East and that's why he has resurrected Misnk-2. Since increasing bombardment has not delivered a counter attack now is trying to tie Moscow with the constitutional consultations using Frnace and Germany as proxies to prevent any unexpected move that can thwart whatever Kiev is planning for western Ukraine.
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    Post  Khepesh Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:57 pm

    whir wrote:
    To me this is just another farce, that can lead to serious consequences but a farce nonetheless, RS stepped over someone's else interests, since smuggling business is serious business in Ukraine, and now Kiev is trying to twist they arm into obedience.
    I agree with this, tho I think it has suddenly got to the serious point faster than expected. If Rusyns and ethnic Hungarians see a viable opportunity and declare autonomy at the least, then Ukraine could split almost overnight. At the moment the calls for Galicia to split from Ukraine are not treated seriously, but as I said before, it only needs a few armed and determined people to take control, in Lvov for instance, and then it will seem that it is a popular revolt, even if it is not, as many will simply sit at home and do nothing. I think the crimminality aspect was a catalyst for Mukachevo, but its now all political and a fight for survival.
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    Post  whir Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:01 pm

    The Telegraph wrote:Local people gather to honour MH17 dead in eastern Ukraine
    By Roland Oliphant, Grabovo and Rosipnoye 1:30PM BST 17 Jul 2015

    When MH17 was destroyed, the villages of Gravovo, Rosipnoye, and Petropavlivka escaped destruction by a matter of metres. Now locals have taken it upon themselves to honour the victims

    Late in the afternoon of July 17 last year, Marina Volkova was nearly killed by a dead body.

    Her husband, Yevgenny, a miner, was watching television and she was on the computer when two powerful blasts reverberated through their home in the village of Rosipnoye, Ukraine.

    In the context of war, the explosions did not come as much of a surprise. Knowing that combat aircraft had been operation in the region, she assumed the village had come under attack.

    “We’d already spoken about what to do,” she told the Telegraph a few days later. “So we dashed across the yard to the cellar.”

    It was then, as she had her foot on the top-step of the basement steps, and her husband opened the front door of the house to follow her, that something crashed into the narrow yard between them and broke in two.

    It was the body of a woman. They still do not know her identity. Continue reading.
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    Post  Guest Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:34 pm

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:Anyway, I would love to see Poroshenko's source (I do believe there is some accuracy in it). I sure hope he is right. Last time the NAF launched a major offensive involved a wind from the North that pushed the NAF all the way to the Azov Sea. Nobody took the rebels seriously then, the Ukrop leadership can't afford to make the same mistake again.

    I don't.
    It is better not to let the enemy know when you want to push him back.
    Last time the NAF tried to push the UAF back they did almost lose.
    It's no secret that the NAF wants to push the Ukrops back. that was their goal from the beginning and still is today. Besides as of now, the Ukrops have no idea where the NAF will strike as evident by the VSU deployments on the front. Nor did they know that the NAF had intentions of pushing all the way to the Azov Sea back in August. The VSU had a lot of men down there, but they were still caught by surprise by the NAF (or even Russian Ground Forces) as evident through Ilovaisk.

    The last time the NAF put an effort into pushing the VSU back was last August and that was a success in every measure. Since then the NAF and VSU have been embroiled in a virtual stalemate with very little gains made by either side. Debaltsevo doesn't count because the Ukrops were practically operating behind enemy lines already and they just had a narrow supply corridor. Nor does Shirokino count because it is an almost insignificant gain made by the Azov battalion after a few months a stalemate.


    Last edited by Ivan the Colorado on Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:40 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : seplinlg)
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:41 pm


    We have seen pics of NAF infantry with Shmel launchers, but does NAF have any artillery systems capable of firing thermobaric or cluster munitions?
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    Post  Werewolf Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:07 pm

    Blaming Putin is now a standardized sport...

    West Ukrop retarded woman blames Putin for depriving ukrops from sex...


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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:09 pm

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:The last time the NAF put an effort into pushing the VSU back was last August and that was a success in every measure. Since then the NAF and VSU have been embroiled in a virtual stalemate with very little gains made by either side. Debaltsevo doesn't count because the Ukrops were practically operating behind enemy lines already and they just had a narrow supply corridor. Nor does Shirokino count because it is an almost insignificant gain made by the Azov battalion after a few months a stalemate.

    Last time they tried to push the VSU back was in last winter.
    Have you forgotten the battle for Peski and Avdeevka?
    The main reason for that campaign was ending the shelling of Donetsk. It did not work out despite the neutralisation of the VSU in the destroyed Donetsk airport.
    The VSU was too strong and managed to keep the NAF out of Avdeevka and pushed them out of Peski with counter-offensive.
    Debaltsevo does count. The NAF had a really hard time cutting off the "narrow supply corridor" and was running out of men to throw against the enemy.


    Last edited by ExBeobachter1987 on Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  whir Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:23 pm

    Мамин Сибиряк wrote:Mobilization in the minibus.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:25 pm

    Yes! 0 Maidan soldiers KIA 2 Maidan soldiers WIA yesterday. Keep the casualties mounting boys and soon the Ukrainians will not be able to replace lost man power cheers
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    Post  Guest Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:59 pm

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:The last time the NAF put an effort into pushing the VSU back was last August and that was a success in every measure. Since then the NAF and VSU have been embroiled in a virtual stalemate with very little gains made by either side. Debaltsevo doesn't count because the Ukrops were practically operating behind enemy lines already and they just had a narrow supply corridor. Nor does Shirokino count because it is an almost insignificant gain made by the Azov battalion after a few months a stalemate.

    Last time they tried to push the VSU back was in last winter.
    Have you forgotten the battle for Peski and Avdeevka?
    The main reason for that campaign was ending the shelling of Donetsk. It did not work out after the VSU in the destroyed Donetsk airport was finally neutralised.
    The VSU was too strong and managed to keep the NAF out of Avdeevka and pushed them out of Peski with counter-offensive.
    Debaltsevo does count. The NAF had a really hard time cutting off the "narrow supply corridor" and was running out of men to throw against the enemy.
    The last time the VSU was attacked in around that area was a few weeks ago with a short but brutal counterattack conducted by the NAF. This was arround the time everybody thought Ukraine would attack Transnistria too. Thanks to outside pressures (Minsk mostly), the NAF couldn't continue pushing on Ukrop forces there without outside support resulting in the continuation of the stalemate. I personally don't buy the excuse that the VSU is strong enough to prevent a full out assault from the NAF for a while now. I really don't think that many other people buy that excuse too especially after the events of Debaltsevo and Iloviask. I have to believe that other outside forces are holding the NAF's leash right now.

    I disagree with Debaltsevo. The cauldron should have been formed back last summer not in February. And for all the forces that the Ukrops had there it didn't take long at all to cut them off. Sure the NAF may have gotten some help from our boys from Buryatia, but it was painfully obvious that the VSU wouldn't last long against the NAF.

    I'm sorry, but I think you make the VSU stronger than they are. The most effective defensive weapon they have is the Minsk Agreements and the OSCE to prevent the Rebels from tearing them apart.
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:26 pm

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:I personally don't buy the excuse that the VSU is strong enough to prevent a full out assault from the NAF for a while now. I really don't think that many other people buy that excuse too especially after the events of Debaltsevo and Iloviask. I have to believe that other outside forces are holding the NAF's leash right now.

    The NAF is still outgunned and outmanned by the VSU despite the successful efforts to shrink the gap between them.
    A full-out assault against the entrenched VSU would fail, unless Russian ground forces assist once again.

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:I disagree with Debaltsevo. The cauldron should have been formed back last summer not in February. And for all the forces that the Ukrops had there it didn't take long at all to cut them off. Sure the NAF may have gotten some help from our boys from Buryatia, but it was painfully obvious that the VSU wouldn't last long against the NAF.

    Have your read about the problems of the NAF during the battle for Debaltsevo?

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:I'm sorry, but I think you make the VSU stronger than they are. The most effective defensive weapon they have is the Minsk Agreements and the OSCE to prevent the Rebels from tearing them apart.

    And you are underestimating the VSU. It has gotten stronger since summer 2014.
    Just because it can't win the war, it does not mean that it is doomed to lose the next battle.
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    Post  kvs Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:45 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Putin pissed off at the one-sided press leaks.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded the Dutch prime minister of inadmissibility of 'tossing' press versions of MH17 plane crash that are politicized.

    MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Vladimir Putin discussed the inquiry into the Malaysian Airlines MH17 aircraft crash in eastern Ukraine in a telephone conversation with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the Kremlin press service said in a statement Thursday. “The investigation of the Malaysia Airlines plane crash on July 17, 2014 in Ukraine was discussed, mutual interest in its effective holding was emphasized,” the statement said. The remark comes a day after some details of the final investigative report by the Dutch Safety Board emerged in media outlets.

    In particular, CNN reported, citing sources familiar with the investigation, that the inquiry into the MH17 crash had found that responsibility for the tragedy should primarily be put on eastern Ukraine independence supporters, and, partly, on the carrier.

    Putin clarified Russia’s position on "premature" initiatives of creating an international tribunal on MH17 crash. “Putin explained in details Russia's position regarding the premature and counter productive initiatives of several countries, including the Netherlands, to establish an international tribunal to prosecute those responsible for the Malaysian airliner’s crash,” the statement said.

    Earlier in July, it was reported that Malaysia had submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council. The initiative was backed by Australia, Belgium, the Netherlands and Ukraine.

    Kiev blamed the independence supporters in eastern Ukraine for shooting down the plane. However, local militia insisted that they did not possess weapons capable of bringing down an aircraft flying at 32,000 feet. Russia has repeatedly stressed the importance of a transparent international investigation into the tragedy.

    The Dutch Safety Board is due to release a final report on the tragedy in October 2015.


    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150716/1024699609.html#ixzz3gAgvF5uv


    Can it get any more farcical and grotesque than this? So the Kiev regime has zero responsibility for allowing civilian air traffic over
    a war zone with anti-air craft missile complexes in play? How does the carrier (Malaysian Airlines) get part of the blame and not
    Khuyiv? Ridiculous to the Nth degree.

    How about the ATC tapes that the Kiev regime refused to release? Who needs them, eh? If Russia gets pinned with this
    pathetic Washington psyop it should lash back hard. Ban all NATO commercial air traffic crossing Russian territory.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:55 pm

    Neutrality wrote:Is it popcorn time? Regardless, I feel slightly wrong about the situation in Zakarpatiya and wishing that shit hits the fan. I don't want to see innocent civilians get slaugtered like in the East but I also realize it's the West that started this whole mess so perhaps it's time for them to go through the same as the ones in the East. Maybe the war can be over sooner this way.

    Aren't Trans-Carpathia and Galicia completely different things? Galicia is the home of Ukrainian Nazism while Trans-Carpathia is more suspicious about Kiev?
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Sat Jul 18, 2015 12:28 am

    Karl Haushofer wrote:
    Neutrality wrote:Is it popcorn time? Regardless, I feel slightly wrong about the situation in Zakarpatiya and wishing that shit hits the fan. I don't want to see innocent civilians get slaugtered like in the East but I also realize it's the West that started this whole mess so perhaps it's time for them to go through the same as the ones in the East. Maybe the war can be over sooner this way.

    Aren't Trans-Carpathia and Galicia completely different things? Galicia is the home of Ukrainian Nazism while Trans-Carpathia is more suspicious about Kiev?

    Galicia was part of Austria/Poland. Trans-Carpathia belonged to Hungary/Czechoslovakia.
    Unsurprisingly, there are some important differences between them.
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jul 18, 2015 12:40 am

    Meanwhile the gravy train rolls on. This time screwing Ukrainian farmers by allowing large quantities of Canadian food in free of tax. In return some Ukrainian goods get free access to Canada, not things like steel but chocolate. Does that ring a bell? This is a couple of excerpts from http://johnhelmer.net/?p=13775#more-13775

    Canada – bless its maple-leaf heart – has given Ukraine C$400 million in cash since last September to help the Kiev government finance its civil war and debts. This week in Ottawa, with the signing of a free trade agreement between the two governments, the Canadians aim to claw back the cash by obliging Kiev to allow a surge of imports of Canadian cereals, meat, timber and other products. Until now Ukrainian producers of these goods have resisted, blocking the Canadian imports for fear they will damage the Ukrainian market and domestic earnings.

    Canadian officials acknowledge that for Ukrainian steel, which is currently barred from entering the Canadian market at dumping prices, there will be no change, and the new agreement will make no difference.

    “Harper is saving the Ukraine by damaging its farmers,” a Toronto source says, “and keeping Canada’s steelmills protected from one of the few exports the eastern Ukraine can still turn out. If that’s not cynical politics for gullible voters, I don’t know what is.” According to another Canadian analyst of the Ukrainian conflict, “this is money-making for a small circle of Ukrainian-Canadian business figures, their friends in Ottawa, and the ultra-nationalists in Ukraine.”
    .......................................
    Officials in Ottawa won’t say what has happened to the C$400 million in Canadian loans, issued to Kiev at an interest rate of 1.43%, in September and March. Audit and accountability requirements in Canadian law for the money have been suspended in Ukraine’s case.
    ........................................
    The official Canadian list of Ukrainian exports to benefit from new duty-free entry to the Canadian market includes “sugar and chocolate confectionery”. This refers to the leading Ukrainian exporter Roshen, which is owned by Poroshenko. Since becoming president in Kiev in May of 2014, Poroshenko has been promising to sell out. However, the collapse of his business in Russia, and decline of sales in Ukraine, have lowered the value of his asset. He reportedly wants $3 billion; Nestle of Switzerland is offering one-third as much.
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    Post  Teshub Sat Jul 18, 2015 12:45 am

    A new interview of Wimmer, former vice-president of the OSCE, who once again states the US uses the OSCE to spy and post false biased reports.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sb-oLcbtYWg
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    Post  Guest Sat Jul 18, 2015 12:55 am

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:I personally don't buy the excuse that the VSU is strong enough to prevent a full out assault from the NAF for a while now. I really don't think that many other people buy that excuse too especially after the events of Debaltsevo and Iloviask. I have to believe that other outside forces are holding the NAF's leash right now.

    The NAF is still outgunned and outmanned by the VSU despite the successful efforts to shrink the gap between them.
    A full-out assault against the entrenched VSU would fail, unless Russian ground forces assist once again.
    Outgunned? Not as much as it would appear on paper. No country without air superiority has won a war for nearly a century now. The NAF closed the skies to the VSU completely. Like North Vietnam did to the US. This war is now dictated by artillery and the NAF is very close to the VSU in terms of their firepower nowadays.

    Outmanned? The gap is steadily shrinking as evident through the multiple mobilizations the Ukrops had already.

    All the NAF needs only advisers and some aid. The counterattack a few weeks ago proved that the NAF can hold their own in an assault and they can do quite well too without any direct help from the Polite PeopleTM. The NAF was able to inflict heavy loses on the VSU and able to take their positions. Why the NAF decided to back down later is another matter.

    Could the NAF wipe out the VSU and their friends? Unlikely, without major loses and without major help.

    Could the NAF push the VSU forces further back? Given the right geopolitical climate there is good reason to believe that the NAF is strong enough to push the Ukrops further back now.
    Ivan the Colorado wrote:I disagree with Debaltsevo. The cauldron should have been formed back last summer not in February. And for all the forces that the Ukrops had there it didn't take long at all to cut them off. Sure the NAF may have gotten some help from our boys from Buryatia, but it was painfully obvious that the VSU wouldn't last long against the NAF.

    Have your read about the problems of the NAF during the battle for Debaltsevo?
    Doesn't really matter at the end. From where I was sitting, it was obvious that the VSU wouldn't win. Even at the beginning. Western MSM also quickly realized this and attempted to turn the Ukrop forces into tragic heroes.

    Ivan the Colorado wrote:I'm sorry, but I think you make the VSU stronger than they are. The most effective defensive weapon they have is the Minsk Agreements and the OSCE to prevent the Rebels from tearing them apart.

    And you are underestimating the VSU. It has gotten stronger since summer 2014.
    Just because it can't win the war, it does not mean that it is doomed to lose the next battle.
    Fair enough.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Sat Jul 18, 2015 2:56 am

    Strelkov updated the following after Moscow VIP visit:

    1. Ministry of Defense dissolved

    2. Zackarcheko replaced

    3. Givi and Motorola and their battalions Somali and Sparta gone

    4. Republican Guard dissolved
    franco
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17 - Page 30 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  franco Sat Jul 18, 2015 3:20 am

    Flagship Victory wrote:Strelkov updated the following after Moscow VIP visit:

    1. Ministry of Defense dissolved

    2. Zackarcheko replaced

    3. Givi and Motorola and their battalions Somali and Sparta gone

    4. Republican Guard dissolved

    Link please.
    Erk
    Erk


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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17 - Page 30 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Erk Sat Jul 18, 2015 3:22 am



    Jul-17-2015 Military Report of Novorossia
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    Vann7


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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17 - Page 30 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

    Post  Vann7 Sat Jul 18, 2015 3:28 am



    From Lvov to Russia with Love!



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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #17 - Page 30 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

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