The Situation in the Ukraine. #17

Khepesh wrote:Twenty pravy sektor went into Mukachevo, ten remain at large and will likely not be in Transcarpathia now but Lvov or Rivno. Against ten men is only an ATO in the sense that an operation against a few terrorists in Dagestan is technically an ATO. But here ATO is being used as a major military operation against not terrorists, but a rebellion. So, if this really is against ten men it is ridiculous, if not, then it could be a repressive operation to stop a rebellion before it happens, a warning to any who are discontent with Kiev junta.

Neutrality wrote:Do you think the Normandy 4 meeting has something to do with the situation in Zakarpatyia? If that's true then I wonder why Poroshenko would want to consult with Hollande and Merkel about, not even to mention Putin? The situation in Mukachevo is entirely his doing and no way he's going to spin the Putin-is-sabotaging-Western-Ukraine bullshit story here.

Neutrality wrote:Do you think the Normandy 4 meeting has something to do with the situation in Zakarpatyia? If that's true then I wonder why Poroshenko would want to consult with Hollande and Merkel about, not even to mention Putin? The situation in Mukachevo is entirely his doing and no way he's going to spin the Putin-is-sabotaging-Western-Ukraine bullshit story here.

whir wrote:
To me this is just another farce, that can lead to serious consequences but a farce nonetheless, RS stepped over someone's else interests, since smuggling business is serious business in Ukraine, and now Kiev is trying to twist they arm into obedience.

The Telegraph wrote:Local people gather to honour MH17 dead in eastern Ukraine
By Roland Oliphant, Grabovo and Rosipnoye 1:30PM BST 17 Jul 2015

When MH17 was destroyed, the villages of Gravovo, Rosipnoye, and Petropavlivka escaped destruction by a matter of metres. Now locals have taken it upon themselves to honour the victims

Late in the afternoon of July 17 last year, Marina Volkova was nearly killed by a dead body.

Her husband, Yevgenny, a miner, was watching television and she was on the computer when two powerful blasts reverberated through their home in the village of Rosipnoye, Ukraine.

In the context of war, the explosions did not come as much of a surprise. Knowing that combat aircraft had been operation in the region, she assumed the village had come under attack.

“We’d already spoken about what to do,” she told the Telegraph a few days later. “So we dashed across the yard to the cellar.”

It was then, as she had her foot on the top-step of the basement steps, and her husband opened the front door of the house to follow her, that something crashed into the narrow yard between them and broke in two.

It was the body of a woman. They still do not know her identity. Continue reading.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:Anyway, I would love to see Poroshenko's source (I do believe there is some accuracy in it). I sure hope he is right. Last time the NAF launched a major offensive involved a wind from the North that pushed the NAF all the way to the Azov Sea. Nobody took the rebels seriously then, the Ukrop leadership can't afford to make the same mistake again.

I don't.
It is better not to let the enemy know when you want to push him back.
Last time the NAF tried to push the UAF back they did almost lose.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:The last time the NAF put an effort into pushing the VSU back was last August and that was a success in every measure. Since then the NAF and VSU have been embroiled in a virtual stalemate with very little gains made by either side. Debaltsevo doesn't count because the Ukrops were practically operating behind enemy lines already and they just had a narrow supply corridor. Nor does Shirokino count because it is an almost insignificant gain made by the Azov battalion after a few months a stalemate.

Мамин Сибиряк wrote:Mobilization in the minibus.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:The last time the NAF put an effort into pushing the VSU back was last August and that was a success in every measure. Since then the NAF and VSU have been embroiled in a virtual stalemate with very little gains made by either side. Debaltsevo doesn't count because the Ukrops were practically operating behind enemy lines already and they just had a narrow supply corridor. Nor does Shirokino count because it is an almost insignificant gain made by the Azov battalion after a few months a stalemate.

Last time they tried to push the VSU back was in last winter.
Have you forgotten the battle for Peski and Avdeevka?
The main reason for that campaign was ending the shelling of Donetsk. It did not work out after the VSU in the destroyed Donetsk airport was finally neutralised.
The VSU was too strong and managed to keep the NAF out of Avdeevka and pushed them out of Peski with counter-offensive.
Debaltsevo does count. The NAF had a really hard time cutting off the "narrow supply corridor" and was running out of men to throw against the enemy.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:I personally don't buy the excuse that the VSU is strong enough to prevent a full out assault from the NAF for a while now. I really don't think that many other people buy that excuse too especially after the events of Debaltsevo and Iloviask. I have to believe that other outside forces are holding the NAF's leash right now.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:I disagree with Debaltsevo. The cauldron should have been formed back last summer not in February. And for all the forces that the Ukrops had there it didn't take long at all to cut them off. Sure the NAF may have gotten some help from our boys from Buryatia, but it was painfully obvious that the VSU wouldn't last long against the NAF.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:I'm sorry, but I think you make the VSU stronger than they are. The most effective defensive weapon they have is the Minsk Agreements and the OSCE to prevent the Rebels from tearing them apart.

JohninMK wrote:Putin pissed off at the one-sided press leaks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reminded the Dutch prime minister of inadmissibility of 'tossing' press versions of MH17 plane crash that are politicized.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Vladimir Putin discussed the inquiry into the Malaysian Airlines MH17 aircraft crash in eastern Ukraine in a telephone conversation with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the Kremlin press service said in a statement Thursday. “The investigation of the Malaysia Airlines plane crash on July 17, 2014 in Ukraine was discussed, mutual interest in its effective holding was emphasized,” the statement said. The remark comes a day after some details of the final investigative report by the Dutch Safety Board emerged in media outlets.

In particular, CNN reported, citing sources familiar with the investigation, that the inquiry into the MH17 crash had found that responsibility for the tragedy should primarily be put on eastern Ukraine independence supporters, and, partly, on the carrier.

Putin clarified Russia’s position on "premature" initiatives of creating an international tribunal on MH17 crash. “Putin explained in details Russia's position regarding the premature and counter productive initiatives of several countries, including the Netherlands, to establish an international tribunal to prosecute those responsible for the Malaysian airliner’s crash,” the statement said.

Earlier in July, it was reported that Malaysia had submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council. The initiative was backed by Australia, Belgium, the Netherlands and Ukraine.

Kiev blamed the independence supporters in eastern Ukraine for shooting down the plane. However, local militia insisted that they did not possess weapons capable of bringing down an aircraft flying at 32,000 feet. Russia has repeatedly stressed the importance of a transparent international investigation into the tragedy.

The Dutch Safety Board is due to release a final report on the tragedy in October 2015.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150716/1024699609.html#ixzz3gAgvF5uv

Neutrality wrote:Is it popcorn time? Regardless, I feel slightly wrong about the situation in Zakarpatiya and wishing that shit hits the fan. I don't want to see innocent civilians get slaugtered like in the East but I also realize it's the West that started this whole mess so perhaps it's time for them to go through the same as the ones in the East. Maybe the war can be over sooner this way.

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Neutrality wrote:Is it popcorn time? Regardless, I feel slightly wrong about the situation in Zakarpatiya and wishing that shit hits the fan. I don't want to see innocent civilians get slaugtered like in the East but I also realize it's the West that started this whole mess so perhaps it's time for them to go through the same as the ones in the East. Maybe the war can be over sooner this way.

Aren't Trans-Carpathia and Galicia completely different things? Galicia is the home of Ukrainian Nazism while Trans-Carpathia is more suspicious about Kiev?

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:I personally don't buy the excuse that the VSU is strong enough to prevent a full out assault from the NAF for a while now. I really don't think that many other people buy that excuse too especially after the events of Debaltsevo and Iloviask. I have to believe that other outside forces are holding the NAF's leash right now.

The NAF is still outgunned and outmanned by the VSU despite the successful efforts to shrink the gap between them.
A full-out assault against the entrenched VSU would fail, unless Russian ground forces assist once again.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:I disagree with Debaltsevo. The cauldron should have been formed back last summer not in February. And for all the forces that the Ukrops had there it didn't take long at all to cut them off. Sure the NAF may have gotten some help from our boys from Buryatia, but it was painfully obvious that the VSU wouldn't last long against the NAF.

Have your read about the problems of the NAF during the battle for Debaltsevo?

Ivan the Colorado wrote:I'm sorry, but I think you make the VSU stronger than they are. The most effective defensive weapon they have is the Minsk Agreements and the OSCE to prevent the Rebels from tearing them apart.

And you are underestimating the VSU. It has gotten stronger since summer 2014.
Just because it can't win the war, it does not mean that it is doomed to lose the next battle.