lol, Iran's borders with Armenia are wide open; they've been serving as their lifeline ever since independence. And w/o their co-operation we wouldn't have been able to supply anything to Armenia since the colour revolution in Georgia in 2003.
And Iran is very discreet, about it's backing of Armenia, but nevertheless it sometimes gets out into the open
Like these vids filmed yesterday, a Russian convoy passing into Armenia through Iran.
Hmm, smells like Pantsirs.
Question is - to shore up the Russian base and borderguards on Armenia's border with Turkey, or is Russia bold enough to supply these Pantsirs to the Armenians directly?
As for what you predict.
No, this will end with Erdogan waiting under the Catherine the Great statue again for a meeting with Putin. They guy is beyond retarded and this stunt is the most absurd gamble yet. He's getting desperate.
Yes of course, that's also what I'm referring to, but I expect that if we chose to intervene openly in exchange for significant political concessions from Armenia, we'd need to renegotiate with Iran. At the end of the day they're not an ally, they're a fair-weather friend and somebody we can make a deal with. They would not be too jazzed to see Russian influence and control over Armenia shoot up.
It's the same thing we saw in Syria, it took a few rounds of high-level negotiations to smooth out our cooperation.
As for the prediction, yeah maybe, but again today we see the Kremlin calling for talks and de-escalation from both sides. So who knows, time will tell. If you were in the neighborhood, I'd bet you a beer.
They're an ally and have been for some time.
After the US dumped the Kurds last September, they passed over to be Moscow's pawns - albeit they have some trouble realizing it for now.
In exchange the US reaffirmed Turkey's loyalty.
Plan neo-Ottomanism has suffered a defeat, now the plan is pan-Turkism, with an eye to getting through to Central Asia and its energy resources, and then invoking seperatism in Russia, China and Iran.
Well it's not exactly a great plan as the US and EU can't be too open about things and have to pretend to still be rooting for the Armenians and democracy (but then again Russia and Iran have the same problem with their Turkic populations; which are reasonably loyal to them but still it's better not to kick up a fuss), while having to deal with the opposition of Russia, China and Iran to said plan; with Iran being more than a match for any Azerbaijan or Central Asian country, and Russia/China easily outmatching Turkey and the smithering of covert EU/US support that can get through. Not to mention the economics of things; Turkey is a good-sized regional economy but Azerbaijan is entirely dependent on oil, while Central Asia is entirely dependent on trade with Russia and China.
The Arabs aren't too exhilarated with Turkish meddling either in their own countries. Neither the Greeks, albeit the EU/US might now try to force the Greeks and Turks to make up. Bulgaria won't be enthusiastic about the idea either.
As for what the Kremlin is calling for, what Tehran is calling for, what Brussels is calling for, what Washington is calling for - these are just words. They don't reflect the situation in actuality. The only ones who are being honest about their support are funnily enough Turkey.
It's enough to note that Russian MiG-29s overflew Yerevan just yesterday
Iran has just today shot down an Azeri or Turkish drone which intruded into its airspace.
This is a message of course. Iran has no patience with Erdogan's retarded plan and for being a NATO tool. Were Iran a neutral country it would probably forgo the interception of a drone that likely clipped its airspace accidentally.
The Azeris have at their side Turkish intelligence and officers, Syrian terrorists, possibly some pan-Turkic barely literates from Central Asia later on, and maybe some Pakistani Islamists if they're 'lucky'.
On the minus side they'll have to forgo Shamil Basayev and his merry band this time round. But hey, maybe some Ukronazi mercenary pilots will make up for it.
As for the Armenians; for now just their huge incoming diaspora, as well as Russian supplies & intelligence, but no doubt Wagner as well if things continue to escelate. I wonder if the Revolutionary Guard/Hezbollah crew turn up. Well really the possibilities are now endless; maybe the YPG, maybe some Orthodox crew mercs (Greece/Serbia/etc...).
Georgia hasn't been allowing its own Armenians to cross the border into Armenia and volunteer; they were clashing with Georgian border guards last night. Also Georgia denied Russia airspace access to supply Armenia at US request yesterday.
Georgia is an interesting country to watch. Which will win out, their beef with Russia or their Turkophobia and Islamophobia?
Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:52 pm; edited 1 time in total