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    Israeli–Palestinian conflict:

    crod
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    Post  crod on Sun May 17, 2020 12:11 pm

    the only leverage left is the EU. The problem being the Germans, Austrians, Hungarians and the Czechs will stop any trade ban - the only real option after the EU horse trading will be to stop the special trade allowances afforded to the israelis.
    starman
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    Post  starman on Sun May 17, 2020 12:26 pm

    ahmedfire wrote:
    Yes sure but we can't blame them , the west is sitting and ready to launch a huge attack against anyone who attack Israel .

    Of course the US would support Israel in a conflict, but Israeli military superiority is currently so great US armed intervention would be utterly superfluous.
    starman
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    Post  starman on Sun May 17, 2020 12:29 pm

    ahmedfire wrote:Israel has more far cruise , drone ,AD and EW capabilities than Jordan . It will be a mistake if jordan started war alone against Israel .

    It fact it would be suicidal if the whole arab world and Iran went to war now.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun May 17, 2020 1:17 pm

    Well that is the thing about being the victim of abuse... rationality has nothing to do with things and sometimes it feels good just to land one good solid punch on the bully even if it means getting your ass kicked.

    Not that I do not support Russia, in trade with world and ME. I do. A multi - polar world, will be a better world. But simply saying weapon sales by Russia to Saudi or Jordan, will somehow help Palestinian cause, does not follow.

    My point is not a couple of extra billion dollars in sales for MiG fighters and S-400 missiles, my point is that the Palestinians have zero chance if all the neighbours are pro US, because we have seen from the deal of the century that the US is just Israel with a different post code... in fact to be honest they might get a better deal if the US wasn't even involved.

    The countries of the Middle East working together and realising that neither the US nor Israel can be their friends because they don't want Jews and Arabs and Persians and other groups in the region to just live together... they want everyone else to just leave.

    Don't you wonder why the US wants to topple Assad and Gaddafi... they really don't have enormous volumes of oil on their territory... their problem is that they weren't yes men... america couldn't buy them... so even though assad was actually turning to the west when they attacked him it simply wasn't good enough for them. Gaddafi complied with their demands to get rid of WMDs and how did that turn out for him?

    Reducing US influence in the region weakens and isolates israel and a weakened and isolated israel is much more likely to be more reasonable.

    If Egypt were to buy from Russia an IADS network and go through the process of integrating its air defence forces within that network including interceptor aircraft as well as radars and SAMs, their ability to defend themselves will go up several orders of magnitude... Israeli interference would become too costly to consider and you would see them offering new peace deals and they would be visiting Moscow 5 times a week to "negotiate".

    Israel has had plenty of time to make real peace but instead it steals more land and kills more Palestinians...

    A little bit ironic that Israel was created through violence and murder and bombs, and while they seem to have no regrets regarding that, they also deny the right of their own state to the people living in the place they are stealing to this day... Why does Israel have a right to exist when Palestine does not.


    Get a map drawn before WWI and it shows the area we are talking about as Palestine and all these other countries we talk about today don't seem to exist.

    For example check this out...

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 17, 2020 1:19 pm

    Without US help Israel would be destroyed pretty easily. Militarly they are powerfull but it's a small country.

    Arabs have enough cruise missiles (Scalp for Egypt, kalibr for Algeria) and ballistic missiles to destroy strategic targets like oil storages, power plants ... Israel being small those targets are in low numbers. Even houti's cruise missiles would harm them badly.

    Their AD isn't huge also. They need to move south and north their batteries when they have tensions with Hezbollah or Hamas because they don't have enough systems. What would be their situation against countries firing cruise missiles ? Pretty bad.


    Then Israel would run out of energy to fight and everything would be easy target.

    Today technology is available from plenty countries (south korea, russia, EU countries, china, south africa, iran ...) so any country can get what it wants contrary to during cold war when USSR and USA were the main suppliers and gave the worse they had for export and certainly not cruise missikes with 5m accuracy.
    starman
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    Post  starman on Sun May 17, 2020 2:54 pm

    Isos wrote:Without US help Israel would be destroyed pretty easily. Militarly they are powerfull but it's a small country.

    Too optimistic...

    Arabs have enough cruise missiles (Scalp for Egypt, kalibr for Algeria) and ballistic missiles  to destroy strategic targets like oil storages, power plants ... Israel being small those targets are in low numbers. Even houti's cruise missiles would harm them badly.

    Their AD isn't huge also. They need to move south and north their batteries when they have tensions with Hezbollah or Hamas because they don't have enough systems. What would be their situation against countries firing cruise missiles ? Pretty bad.

    What about the IAF and the ground forces? They could plaster and invade Lebanon, or any adjacent state.

    Then Israel would run out of energy to fight and everything would be easy target.

    Laughing Sure--amazing nobody has done this already...

    Today technology is available from plenty countries (south korea, russia, EU countries, china, south africa, iran ...) so any country can get what it wants contrary to during cold war when USSR and USA were the main suppliers and gave the worse they had for export and certainly not cruise missiles with 5m accuracy.

    Where can arab states or Iran get systems comparable to the F-35, Merkava 4, Trophy etc? Or, who will provide them? Don't get me wrong, I despise Israel and its toadies here. And I think they arabs/Iran still have the potential to stand up to Israel. But they have a lot of catching up to do...
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 17, 2020 3:49 pm

    Without US help Israeli couldn't sustain a war. F35, Merkava are very good but with all fuel reserves destroed, tanker not bringing anymore fuel they won't go far.

    If their power sources are destroyed all their military and civilian structures will stop working. Israel is what ? 200km wide and 600km long ? Not much more. What do they have ? 2 or 3 nuclear plants and 1 or 2 dam ? That's 10 cruise missiles hiting the good place.

    Sure--amazing nobody has done this already...

    That's what US does everytime before they destroy a country. Sanction them so that economy collapse, no more fuel, no more usable airforce and they have barely enough to feed their population.

    That worked because the world wasn't multipolar. Now it doesn't work anymore. See Venezuela. They tried that but Russian kept sending and maintaining their weapons. China will also play a better role now in the new world. Even EU is equiping US adversaries like Egypt with Rafale/meteor and frigates that are better than any israeli f-16/15 and any ship they have.

    Where can arab states or Iran get systems comparable to the F-35, Merkava 4, Trophy etc? Or, who will provide them? Don't get me wrong, I despise Israel and its toadies here. And I think they arabs/Iran still have the potential to stand up to Israel. But they have a lot of catching up to do...

    Lol. Pretty much anywhere they want. And they are getting them riggt now. Egypt has already better systems than everything you said. Saudi arabia can get 10 times more than Egypt (t-90, su-57, kalibr, s-400, tor, kh-59mk2... then China sells a copy of anything US have). They can even buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan if Israel threatens to really use its own.

    I agree they need to catch up but they have the capability to do it. Their main probkem is USA. If US are out of the equation Israel will be in deap shit.
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    Post  jhelb on Sun May 17, 2020 8:56 pm

    Isos wrote:Even EU is equiping US adversaries like Egypt with Rafale/meteor and frigates that are better than any israeli f-16/15 and any ship they have.

    Not because of anti-US policy that the EU has adopted. EU remains a stooge of the US. Egypt has been purchasing frigates, corvettes and other weapons from EU for a very long time. Just like they have been purchasing weapons from Russia. EU selling weapons to Egypt is not a new development.
    ahmedfire
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    Post  ahmedfire on Sun May 17, 2020 9:01 pm

    Yes agree. Everybody is too busy. But still worth a try. Send secret diplomat to discuss a provisional date for symbolic strike. Turkey has Muslim sympathisers. Erdo will be hero overnight. Iran can hold head high, more retaliation for Soliemani. There are PMU in Iraq, they were hit by Usrael strike. Time for little payback. In Pakistan there are Muslims, who hate yank drones and by extension Usrael. Yemen offered to hit them with cruise recently. And Egypt can maintain that the Zionist broke peace agreement by annexation. And throw a single missile.

    No way the current Turkey would go for war with Israel . Turkey is a NATO member ,there are limits .Israel did attacked a Turkish ship and killed 10 Turkish civilians and Turky replied back by cutting relations and get it back again .

    The scenario you offered will not be a limited hits , it will be developed rapidly to a full scale war so all these countries should prepare the plan first and put US intervention in consideration .

    If Egypt were to buy from Russia an IADS network and go through the process of integrating its air defence forces within that network including interceptor aircraft as well as radars and SAMs, their ability to defend themselves will go up several orders of magnitude

    Egypt did that .


    Of course the US would support Israel in a conflict, but Israeli military superiority is currently so great US armed intervention would be utterly superfluous.

    No one said IDF is weak but Israel as a country is weak towards Arabs .

    Look at the map , Israel is a very small area with small population compared to Arabs .Any war with a real opponents would completely shut down Israeli economic and keeping most of the Israelis in underground shilters . Long war for Israel is like killing a guy slowly with poison .

    In 2006 a small groups like Hizbollah using 122 mm rockets showed exactly how much Israel is weak from inside .The rockets reached to Israeli railways . All major cities of northern Israel were targeted , bases, military camps, airports, and some sensitive infrastructure were hit too .

    Cities including Haifa, Hadera, Nazareth, Nazareth Illit, Tiberias, Nahariya, Safed, Afula, Kiryat Shmona, Beit She'an, Karmiel, and Maalot, and dozens of kibbutzim, moshavim, and Druze and Arab villages, as well as the northern West Bank .

    Over 1 million Israelis lived in bomb shelters
    300,000 Israelis were displaced
    630 factories in Israel were closed
    6,000 homes were hit by rockets
    $1.6 billion cost to the Israeli economy
    Northern Israeli businesses lost $1.4 billion
    The war cost Israel $5.3 billion
    $1.6 billion cost to the Israeli economy
    Compensation to be given to the population of northern Israel is $335.4 million
    Israel's forests are expected to recover in 50–60 years .

    Israelis lost their Merkava which get damaged and destroyed and lost 121 slodiers . Even one of their navy piece get damaged ,some sailors get killed .
    On the other side Israel went to bomb civil airlines and underground water diversion pipes and kill more civilians in lebanon .

    After the war we saw major upheaval in the Israeli military and political echelon, with the spate of high-ranking resignations including Chief of General Staff .

    Arabs have a huge fleets of advanced aircrafts , modern airdefences ,huge numbers of helicopters ,thousands of modern tanks,ATGMs ,ballistic and cruise missiles ,advanced navies and millions of soldiers .

    Arabs can fund hundreds of billions of dollars for the operation ,they have strategic depth and human and natural resources to make them go for a long war ,Israel doesn’t ,so it either would use Nuks but Arabs would secure themselves before the war , or requesting US direct intervention .

    Where can arab states or Iran get systems comparable to the F-35, Merkava 4, Trophy etc? Or, who will provide them? Don't get me wrong, I despise Israel and its toadies here. And I think they arabs/Iran still have the potential to stand up to Israel. But they have a lot of catching up to do...

    So thousands of tanks like T-90s ,Abrams ,Leclerc and huge numbers of different ATGMs can't face the Merkava ?! oh i forgot it was destroyed easily in Lebanon .

    Arabs have Su-30 ,F-15,Rafale ,soon Su-35,Mig-29M2 ,Typhoon,Mirage-2000 ,all of them can face F-35. They can get quickly some Russian and Chinese REAL 5th generation aircrafts . I guess by that time the F-35 bugs will not be solved yet   Laughing


    Israel is what ? 200km wide and 600km long

    About 22000 km²

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon May 18, 2020 12:43 pm

    ahmedfire wrote:So thousands of tanks like T-90s ,Abrams ,Leclerc and huge numbers of different ATGMs can't face the Merkava ?! oh i forgot it was destroyed easily in Lebanon .

    Arabs have Su-30 ,F-15,Rafale ,soon Su-35,Mig-29M2 ,Typhoon,Mirage-2000 ,all of them can face F-35. They can get quickly some Russian and Chinese REAL 5th generation aircrafts . I guess by that time the F-35 bugs will not be solved yet   Laughing


    Israel is what ? 200km wide and 600km long

    About 22000 km²

    What Arabs? What are you talking about? My God, what is this fantasy?

    A US-client state such as Jordan or Saudi raises its finger at Israel and the US will remind them who's boss very quickly. It's OK when they limit themselves to rhetoric against Israel. But war preparations will be noticed and the US has overwhelming influence there.

    Iraq - is already a battlegrounds for the US and Iran.

    Egypt tries to do it; they'll find their F-16s non-operational.

    Algeria - has enough concerns of its own.

    Syria is a war-torn country. As is Yemen, and Libya.

    Lebanon is a non-entity.

    There's never been a better time to be Israel to be quite frank. With the exception of Iran, all their regional enemies are either embroiled in civil wars or dependent on the US. There is no more USSR either to arm the Arabs against them with modern weapons at rock-bottom prices.
    Mind you, Iran has been expanding quite well, and has been steadfast in supporting the Palestinian cause - but many of those same Arab states, these alleged mortal enemies of Israel, are arming against it instead. The Arab state that didn't was Syria, and we saw what happened there.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon May 18, 2020 3:00 pm

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    ahmedfire
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    Post  ahmedfire on Mon May 18, 2020 9:16 pm

    A US-client state such as Jordan or Saudi raises its finger at Israel and the US will remind them who's boss very quickly. It's OK when they limit themselves to rhetoric against Israel. But war preparations will be noticed and the US has overwhelming influence there.

    I assumed the scenario in case of absence of US intervention or influence . Nothing really save Israel but the US .

    Iraq - is already a battlegrounds for the US and Iran.

    It doesn’t matter , they can send some of their tanks and aircrafts and pay some billions for the operation .


    Egypt tries to do it; they'll find their F-16s non-operational.

    Egypt Is manufacturing spare parts of F-16 and has a large stock of them and munitions and maintenance experience , it can keep the platforms working for a decade .Egyptians can also co-operate with a third party like Pakistan or Turkey or UAE who are operating F-16 for more support . They are shifting also now from F-16 to more capable fighters .

    Algeria - has enough concerns of its own.

    In time of war against Israel , both Morroco and Algeria would forget all those things between them .

    Syria is a war-torn country. As is Yemen, and Libya.

    There is no need for every Arab country to be perfect . Syria still can fire some ballistic missiles . If war is on the doors be sure Arabs would provide some good stuff of weapons to Syria and no one will mention Bashar because no one will care  who is in power ,the target is Israel only , no politics .

    Libyan army already was weak at Gaddafi time .Yemen didn’t has army before ,nothing changed .


    Lebanon is a non-entity.

    Lebanon role would be shelling the north of Israel ,keeping the Israelis busy to hide and shut down their businesses .Be sure a lot of missiles will be handed to Hizbollah at that time . if Jordan used only long range rocket artillery from the east ,it can hit the last point on the west of Israel on the mediterranean sea .Lebanon from the north . Egypt and SA will attack from south and close Bab El Mandeb ,the Israel's gate to the Gulf of Aden.Egypt already closed it in YK war .

    There is no more USSR either to arm the Arabs against them with modern weapons at rock-bottom prices.

    There are Russia and China .Even some EU countries could keep selling weapons to Arabs .
    Arabs can provide a lot of money if they get unified .

    Mind you, Iran has been expanding quite well, and has been steadfast in supporting the Palestinian cause - but many of those same Arab states, these alleged mortal enemies of Israel, are arming against it instead. The Arab state that didn't was Syria, and we saw what happened there.

    Iran only uses armed groups for her own interests but will not go directly to a full scale war.Geography is against that .

    Syria has no peace with Israel because of the occupied Golan Heights not because of Palestine .

    Arabs interests are divided by the US to keep them busy away from Israel .

    As example ,US don’t need  neither a peace nor a war between gulf countries and Iran ,it needs the poltical conflict and indirect war only to be exist so that gulf will keep buying US arms and pay for it’s security and of course gulf will not consider Israel in such case as an enemy .

    US is arming Morroco against Algeria ,keep tensions between them as possible as it can .

    Arabs are weak because they are not united . US knows exactly how to make Arabs separate from each others so that Israel would be safe . It doesn’t matter how much arms Israelis have , they are surrounded with about half billion of population who have natural and human resources and money and arms and can go for a long war .
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    Post  ahmedfire on Mon May 18, 2020 9:18 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:Israeli–Palestinian conflict: - Page 10 84980778b10e87fba13709232786e2ca

    It's a good tank but representing it as "invincible " is silly .

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Mon May 18, 2020 10:13 pm

    Apfsds will have no problem going through. Those images are merkava against heat missiles which are not as good at penetrating armor as apfsds.

    Merkava also uses its engine on the front as armor so any penetration will destroy the engine and the tank will suffer mobility kill.

    What people don't understand is that when a company makes a new tank it will look at the caracteristics of enemy tanks and make it able to kill it. So the apfsds used in t-90 that can go through 700+mm was made from the start to penetrare abrams, merkava and leopard 2 from the front. If it wasn't the case they would have switched for a 135mm gun and 150mm long apfsds to be sure to go through.

    The same for their fighter/missiles. R-77-1 and mig-29M can compete with any f-16/AMRAAM easily.

    Stories about invincibility is total bullshit coming from dickhead analysts comparing US stuff against 3rd world countries that have 2 or 3 cold war era. Then they write a book about "strategies" and "analyses" about such war which can be disrcibed as a 130kg pro boxer fighting a drunk 50kg guy in a bar. Nothing to learn from that.
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    Post  George1 on Mon May 18, 2020 10:30 pm

    GarryB wrote:

    Get a map drawn before WWI and it shows the area we are talking about as Palestine and all these other countries we talk about today don't seem to exist.

    For example check this out...

    Israeli–Palestinian conflict: - Page 10 Unname10

    Until WWI there were no Jews in Palestine. They started to settle there during the Third Aliyah (1919–1923), coming from eastern europe in the beginning and during 30s mainly from Germany as anti-semitisim intensified in Europe

    The British split the areas of Arabs according to their interest.

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