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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:56 pm

    Looks like the "Russian buildup of Ukraine's Eastern Border" appears to be an elaborate hoax, just like the "Russian invasion of Crimea" when there was a Russian military base in Crimea since 1997 and there's been a constant Russian military presence in Crimea since the 1700's:

    West ignores results of int’l missions that found no troop build-up near Ukraine borders – Moscow

    Russia has denied any troop build-up on the Ukraine border, a claim voiced by President Barack Obama and Kiev officials. Moscow slammed the West for ignoring the results of recent fact-finding missions for the sake of political expediency.

    On Friday Obama urged Russia to pull back “a range of troops,” which he said, “we have seen […] massing along that border under the guise of military exercises."

    "But these are not what Russia would normally be doing," Obama said, speaking with CBS on his trip to Rome.

    He then suggested that the troop build-up could be “just an effort to intimidate Ukraine.”

    "It may be that they've got additional plans," Obama said.

    The US president’s comments came the day after a Ukrainian security official told Executive Vice President of the US-Atlantic Council Damon Wilson that “almost 100,000 soldiers are stationed on the borders of Ukraine and in the direction ... of Kharkov, Donetsk.”

    "Russian troops are not only in Crimea, they are along all Ukrainian borders. They're in the south, they're in the east and in the north," Andrey Parubiy, one of the so-called Maidan “commandants” who has been appointed chairman of Ukraine's Security Council, told the Atlantic Council during a web conference Thursday.

    Parubiy expressed his worry that continental Ukraine might “see a huge attack” on its territory.

    “We are getting ready for it," he said.

    In the past few days, Western media has extensively reported that Russia is positioning its troops in Crimea and along the Ukrainian border. Some of the major news outlets speculated that Russian troops “appeared to be concealing their positions, trying to cloak their equipment, and establishing supply lines.”

    Responding to those accusations, Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement, in which it recalled four probes in March by foreign missions in Russia of regions bordering Ukraine.

    The ministry said that “even Ukrainian inspectors” agreed that “there were no major military activities being carried out.”

    The four international missions included representatives of Latvia, Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Estonia, Belgium, France and Ukraine. None of the missions “found ‘aggressive preparations’ and have not recorded any military activities, aside from the previously declared,” the statement said.

    “Opportunities to conduct such activities were provided to all those who wished to get acquainted with the real situation in the border with Ukraine regions,” the ministry said.

    The statement emphasized that “even Ukrainian inspectors” agreed that “there were no major military activities being carried out.”

    “The result of this was the official reports submitted to all OSCE member states. The objective information contained in those reports, in our view, should have become a subject of an impartial analysis and basis for further conclusions,” the statement said.

    This, however, is not the case here, the ministry said.

    As another proof that there are no additional Russian troops and active military preparations, the Foreign Ministry referred to recent observation flights by American and German inspectors.

    “The official results of those flights will be known later, after the processing of photographic materials. However, one can assume that if signs of large concentration of the armed forces were spotted from the air, our partners would not wait to present the ‘evidence’. Hence, it simply does not exist,” the ministry said.

    Russia’s Foreign Ministry also questioned the objectivity of Western politicians.

    "Is objective information collected by military inspectors not provided to the political leadership [of Western countries]? Or are these leaders, yielding to their emotions, inclined to ignore the facts in order to satisfy their own political tastes and preferences?" the ministry said.

    http://rt.com/news/russia-ukraine-troops-obama-945/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:58 pm

    TR1 wrote:Good, should do that with both naval and ground systems.

    Hell give them their planes back t0o.


    Would modernizing and fixing the Mig-29's cost more than buying new ones? Or perhaps the air-frames are in such a dilapidated state that it could risk the lives of future pilots?
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    Post  TR1 on Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:01 pm

    Russia has enough reserve MiG-29s that the Ukrainian ones are pretty worthless to the RuAF.
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    Post  medo on Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:00 pm

    Considering those Migs are mostly not in flying condition, they will most probably just stay there.
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    Post  d_taddei2 on Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:17 pm

    hi all, has anyone heard if you now need a Russian visa to go to Crimea. Ive spoken to a few visa agencies and they said that currently you dont, and that an update by the Russian authorities would happen at the end of April.

    I will be visiting Crimea, Kiev, and chernobyl(3 nights in the exclusion zone, staying at chernobyl ministry, and access to non tourist areas, got contacts Smile pics will be taken) in 3 weeks time so heres hoping i wont need a visa.
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    Post  TR1 on Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:34 pm

    Very cool, looking forward to some good pics.
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    Post  d_taddei2 on Fri Mar 28, 2014 9:50 pm

    TR1 wrote:Very cool, looking forward to some good pics.

    if able may get pics taken with russian troops. Smile
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    Post  Morpheus Eberhardt on Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:08 pm

    Austin wrote:Obama urges Russia to move its troops away from Ukrainian border
    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/28/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

    What's the point of posting this here? It's garbage from CNN, intended for internal consumption in Oceania. There's no truth or relevance in this kind of prole-feed; it's just a pathway for increasing the entropy.
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    Post  Vann7 on Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:32 am

    Austin wrote:I just hope Russia de-escalates it and removes the troops.

    I see no logic in going inside Eastern Ukraine....beats any logic now that they have got Crimea.

    So if you see no logic why you think is truth?

    I see no logic how can anyone believe anything reported by CNN.Specially when U.S is directly involved in the conflict.
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:57 am

    So if you see no logic why you think is truth?

    And indeed calls to mobilise NATO troops to support their Ukrainian allies shows Russia that NATO is just an instrument designed to be used against them... perhaps Russia should be supplying the Taleban with MANPADS and ATGMs and close off the access route through Russian territory for NATO to Afghanistan... then we can talk about sanctions and cooperation.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Mar 29, 2014 8:11 am

    GarryB wrote:
    So if you see no logic why you think is truth?

    And indeed calls to mobilise NATO troops to support their Ukrainian allies shows Russia that NATO is just an instrument designed to be used against them... perhaps Russia should be supplying the Taleban with MANPADS and ATGMs and close off the access route through Russian territory for NATO to Afghanistan... then we can talk about sanctions and cooperation.

    Well apparently the U.S. senate is trying slap sanctions on Rosoboronexport essentially to destroy Russia's arms industry, If I was Sergey Lavrov I would give the Neo-cons in the Senate a dire warning going something like this "If you plan on placing sanctions on the Russian arms industry than we have no obligation to uphold sanctions against Iran and Syria, we could definitely set up a joint oil for arms and license production deal where Iskander-M's, Klub missiles, S-400's, Su-35's , Mig-35's could find their way in to Shia hand's!"
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    Post  etaepsilonk on Sat Mar 29, 2014 1:26 pm

    Ukraine has frozen arms sales to Russia

    State Concern " Ukroboronprom " froze deliveries to Russia until " de-escalation of the conflict." For " Ukroboronproma " foreign contracts are still the most reliable source of income. Acting CEO Group acknowledged that the termination of deliveries in Russia , the company will incur economic losses.

    RIA Novosti http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140329/1001553268.html

    Does anyone know, what implications this may have for Russia?
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Mar 29, 2014 1:54 pm

    etaepsilonk wrote:Ukraine has frozen arms sales to Russia

    State Concern " Ukroboronprom " froze deliveries to Russia until " de-escalation of the conflict." For " Ukroboronproma " foreign contracts are still the most reliable source of income. Acting CEO Group acknowledged that the termination of deliveries in Russia , the company will incur economic losses.

    RIA Novosti http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140329/1001553268.html

    Does anyone know, what implications this may have for Russia?

    While the contracts were nice, the Russian military never needed them and the money will find its way in to other projects. The contracts are there for the purpose of maintaining good will between Russia and Ukraine, they were never a necessity and Ukroboroprom will be the biggest loser in all of this. The BTR-4 failed tender in Iraq, combined with this will destroy the Ukrainian arms industry!
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    Post  arpakola on Sat Mar 29, 2014 2:28 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    arpakola wrote:http://charly015.blogspot.gr/2014/03/putin-ordena-que-rusia-devuelva.html
    ?????
    ------------------------


    In a historic dispute with the West, Russia reclaims Crimea - March, 2014
    http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.gr/2014/03/in-historic-dispute-with-west-russia.html

    Cheaper than scrapping them apparently.

    Makes sense I guess - that junk has zero value in combat anyway.

    Can't understand why the ships are being handed over though. If scrapping is expensive, they can always just sink them; and unlike some rusty tanks they will have combat value, even the most obsolete ones, and would pose a danger to the Russian BSF.

    action of politeness and fare play. Hoping to demorilize the attempts of agressiveness , giving to the Ukranian military some dignity to claim.

    Spartans were effective in battle for two reasons.
    1st Because it was well known to the oponened that they will not surender or give up , also were well trained as professionals.

    2nd   because they never chased the backward runners, those droping their weapons, making it (droping the weapons and run) a very tempting alternative to the oponened army ( die or stay alive..)
    ----------------------------------------------
    anyway

    I beleave that Obama now has to choose..

    1. A federal Ukraine with S.East having a lot of autonomy
    2. S.East Ukraine becomes independant and joins in with a federal state form Russia.
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    Post  collegeboy16 on Sat Mar 29, 2014 2:46 pm

    russkies are masters of art of war- “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
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    Post  sepheronx on Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:26 pm

    Reading ABP news India and they are saying Obama is visiting India and China to push sanctions on Russia. Lol. I can see India being bought as their politicians are very crooked, but doubt China would be willing since they have far too much money invested. Neither countries were interested in Iran sanctions.
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    Post  etaepsilonk on Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:29 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    etaepsilonk wrote:Ukraine has frozen arms sales to Russia

    State Concern " Ukroboronprom " froze deliveries to Russia until " de-escalation of the conflict." For " Ukroboronproma " foreign contracts are still the most reliable source of income. Acting CEO Group acknowledged that the termination of deliveries in Russia , the company will incur economic losses.

    RIA Novosti http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140329/1001553268.html

    Does anyone know, what implications this may have for Russia?

    While the contracts were nice, the Russian military never needed them and the money will find its way in to other projects. The contracts are there for the purpose of maintaining good will between Russia and Ukraine, they were never a necessity and Ukroboroprom will be the biggest loser in all of this. The BTR-4 failed tender in Iraq, combined with this will destroy the Ukrainian arms industry!


    Sorry, but I think we are not talking about some rifles or APCs, but rather important components for various military and maybe dual use systems (theorically, every system can be described as the latter).
    So, those sanctions could include parts for proton rockets, engines of BE-200, An-148, turbine engines for ships, helicopters, and so on.


    -----------------------
    Appearantly, a phone call, calling for elimination of Yarosh, has been leaked:


    If true, "pravy sektor" won't be very happy about this.


    And, just really, WTF is wrong with Ukraine's institutions??
    I mean, such crooks like Muzichko and Yarosh can go to hell, as far as I'm concerned, but if Ukraine still consider itself a civilized state, a trial should be held, and their guilt proven by law, and not by order of some just as crookish oligarch.


    Last edited by etaepsilonk on Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:43 pm; edited 4 times in total
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    Post  macedonian on Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:30 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Well apparently the U.S. senate is trying slap sanctions on Rosoboronexport essentially to destroy Russia's arms industry, If I was Sergey Lavrov I would give the Neo-cons in the Senate a dire warning going something like this "If you plan on placing sanctions on the Russian arms industry than we have no obligation to uphold sanctions against Iran and Syria, we could definitely set up a joint oil for arms and license production deal where Iskander-M's, Klub missiles, S-400's, Su-35's , Mig-35's could find their way in to Shia hand's!"
    X2
    Except that I'd do it without the threats.
    Keep calm and do your thing, no need to advertise it, nor to pressure anyone by saying 'I could do this'....
    Just do it, and pretend you're not involved in it. Act like 'The West' has done times and times before.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Mar 29, 2014 6:02 pm

    etaepsilonk wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    etaepsilonk wrote:Ukraine has frozen arms sales to Russia

    State Concern " Ukroboronprom " froze deliveries to Russia until " de-escalation of the conflict." For " Ukroboronproma " foreign contracts are still the most reliable source of income. Acting CEO Group acknowledged that the termination of deliveries in Russia , the company will incur economic losses.

    RIA Novosti http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20140329/1001553268.html

    Does anyone know, what implications this may have for Russia?

    While the contracts were nice, the Russian military never needed them and the money will find its way in to other projects. The contracts are there for the purpose of maintaining good will between Russia and Ukraine, they were never a necessity and Ukroboroprom will be the biggest loser in all of this. The BTR-4 failed tender in Iraq, combined with this will destroy the Ukrainian arms industry!


    Sorry, but I think we are not talking about some rifles or APCs, but rather important components for various military and maybe dual use systems (theorically, every system can be described as the latter).
    So, those sanctions could include parts for proton rockets, engines of BE-200, An-148, turbine engines for ships, helicopters, and so on.

    If they break contract than I can definitely see Russian MOD finding a way to replicate that parts needed, and they probably can considering Russian industrial production is vastly superior to that of their Ukrainian counterparts.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:52 pm

    Yeah. I am in for maximum escalation. This is the time to press forward. I say it from the very beginning.
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    Post  TR1 on Sat Mar 29, 2014 8:30 pm

    The biggest thing Ukraine could block is the sale of Motor-Sich engines.
    Russia buys hundreds yearly, and no it would not be able to replicate domestic production without some serious delivery delays.
    Of course they would also be burring Motor-Sich in the process, and one of Ukraine's few proper exports.
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    Post  medo on Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:05 pm

    TR1 wrote:The biggest thing Ukraine could block is the sale of Motor-Sich engines.
    Russia buys hundreds yearly, and no it would not be able to replicate domestic production without some serious delivery delays.
    Of course they would also be burring Motor-Sich in the process, and one of Ukraine's few proper exports.

    I think for the moment Russia could buy those engines through Belarus. Anyway, Russia will have to increase production of their own engines to fulfill all demands with domestic engines. On the other hand, where will Ukraine export their engines? West doesn't need them, they have their own. They will only lost industry, jobs and money.
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    Post  flamming_python on Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:02 pm

    TR1 wrote:The biggest thing Ukraine could block is the sale of Motor-Sich engines.
    Russia buys hundreds yearly, and no it would not be able to replicate domestic production without some serious delivery delays.
    Of course they would also be burring Motor-Sich in the process, and one of Ukraine's few proper exports.

    I think Russia relies on Ukrainian components on a lot of its missiles too, among other things.

    As for Motor-Sich, there is a plant near St. Petersburg under construction; it's meant exactly to replace Motor-Sich and has been under construction for a year or two now. I think it's supposed to be ready by next year or so
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    Post  etaepsilonk on Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:07 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    TR1 wrote:The biggest thing Ukraine could block is the sale of Motor-Sich engines.
    Russia buys hundreds yearly, and no it would not be able to replicate domestic production without some serious delivery delays.
    Of course they would also be burring Motor-Sich in the process, and one of Ukraine's few proper exports.

    I think Russia relies on Ukrainian components on a lot of its missiles too, among other things.

    As for Motor-Sich, there is a plant near St. Petersburg under construction; it's meant exactly to replace Motor-Sich and has been under construction for a year or two now. I think it's supposed to be ready by next year or so


    Is it meant to produce the entire range of M/S products, or just helicopter engines?
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    Post  TR1 on Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:13 pm

    In terms of cruise missiles they have luckily localized production over past several years, so that is not an issue.

    You are thinking of the new Klimov plant I think. Their biggest priority right now is the VK-2500 engines...however the process is slow. In 2013 they were supposed to make 50 all Russian Vk2500, they only made 10.
    And that is by far not the most numerous engine that Russia buys from Motor-Sich.

    There is no way about it, the engine supply from Motor-Sich is irreplaceable for the next several years at least.
    I don't think Motor-Sich is going to be happy if the government cuts its order book by such a huge %.

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