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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:35 am

    TR1 wrote:In terms of cruise missiles they have luckily localized production over past several years, so that is not an issue.

    You are thinking of the new Klimov plant I think. Their biggest priority right now is the VK-2500 engines...however the process is slow. In 2013 they were supposed to make 50 all Russian Vk2500, they only made 10.
    And that is by far not the most numerous engine that Russia buys from Motor-Sich.

    There is no way about it, the engine supply from Motor-Sich is irreplaceable for the next several years at least.
    I don't think Motor-Sich is going to be happy if the government cuts its order book by such a huge %.

    It is fine. As soon as Motor Sich cannot export, priority will be set to the Klimov plant and possibly building new plants for production. When your government starts to panic, things actually get done.
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    Post  TR1 Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:51 am

    Are export customers (or VVS for that matter) going to sit there for the 3-4-5 years that it will take to make up that loss?


    In 2012 Motor-Sich delivered around 460 TV3/VK2500 ALONE to Russia. And they have the process smoothed out and working..there is a reason Klimov was content with this "outsourcing" for so many years, it is cheaper to just buy the engines from Ukraine and slap the Klimov sticker on them.

    Customers do not want to pay more than the cheap price the engines come with today. Localizing production costs money.

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    Post  sepheronx Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:59 am

    TR1 wrote:Are export customers (or VVS for that matter) going to sit there for the 3-4-5 years that it will take to make up that loss?


    In 2012 Motor-Sich delivered around 460 TV3/VK2500 ALONE to Russia. And they have the process smoothed out and working..there is a reason Klimov was content with this "outsourcing" for so many years, it is cheaper to just buy the engines from Ukraine and slap the Klimov sticker on them.  

    Customers do not want to pay more than the cheap price the engines come with today. Localizing production costs money.


    Well, what is it that they can do? Cannot do much now since Ukraine export company refuses to sell to Russia. So in other words, Klimov plants production will have to increase, even if that means costs will go up. Either that, or hold competition for other engines, and no way in hell Chinese engines will end up being used. So what do you propose? Purchase engines from a western country like Rolls Royce?

    I know, this is going to suck, but believe me, it will do wonders for your country in the long run. Production should have been moved at least 50% by now, but since it has not, they will be forced to move production to 100% or get countries like Belarus and Kazakhstan involved. It was smart that they moved production of Cruise missile engines to Russia, now it is helicopter engines. Either consolidate all state engine companies into one to help increase revenue and reduce costs, or they will have to do something else.

    Unless you can think of something else.
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    Post  TR1 Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:08 am

    I don't think they will bar sale of M-S engines to Russia.

    They are calling Kiev right now explaining to them how idiotic that would be.

    It is a huge problem for both sides if it actually happened.
    Massive delays and lost contracts potentially for Russia. There simply isn't another source for these engines to keep up with demand.
    For Ukraine, death of an industry. There simply is no customer to replace Russia.

    Much better if they don't interrupt a lucrative process due to the Crimea situation.
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    Post  sepheronx Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:15 am

    TR1 wrote:I don't think they will bar sale of M-S engines to Russia.

    They are calling Kiev right now explaining to them how idiotic that would be.

    It is a huge problem for both sides if it actually happened.
    Massive delays and lost contracts potentially for Russia. There simply isn't another source for these engines to keep up with demand.
    For Ukraine, death of an industry. There simply is no customer to replace Russia.

    Much better if they don't interrupt a lucrative process due to the Crimea situation.

    If they are to allow sales, and open to Russia, then good. But as soon as they do that, Russia needs to get their collective asses together and actually start right away in developing domestic industries to do it before this crap happens again.

    that being said, was I not called an idiot not long ago for saying that it should all be domestic production? This is clear evidence as to why I am right in what I am saying.
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    Post  GarryB Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:04 am

    Well apparently the U.S. senate is trying slap sanctions on Rosoboronexport essentially to destroy Russia's arms industry,

    Hahahaha... they have been trying to do that for years... all they have managed is to cancel some extra helicopters that they had an option on to buy for Afghanistan. All the aircraft they intended to buy they bought.

    Does anyone know, what implications this may have for Russia?

    The implications are likely more dire for the Ukraine... when the Soviet Union broke up lots of technologies suddenly came from other countries... Russia continued to subsidise a few companies as a sort of charity... others were dropped.

    As an example of the latter the level of thermal imaging technology in the Soviet Union was not great in the 1990s and early 2000s so when it came time in the early 2000s to look at TI cameras for tanks and UAVs and even rifle sights if you are getting it from a foreign country why get an expensive crappy think from an ex soviet state when you can licence produce state of the art cameras from thales in France or Swedish cameras etc etc.

    Most of what came from the Ukraine was replaced with Russian parts, though helicopter engines come from Motor Sich in the Ukraine and quite a few other bits and pieces like An-128 and An-70 aicraft. Klimov has mastered helicopter engine manufacture and has some upgraded more powerful engines on their way for 2015-6 or so, and to be honest the An-128 is not the most amazing product that can't be replaced by anything else Russian.

    In terms of rocket components a few bits from SS-18 remain Ukrainian... which wont be a problem for too much longer and Angara removes Ukrainian components too.

    In comparison it is going to be very painful for the Ukraine to stop these sales... most of the rest of Europe don't want Ukrainian aircraft or Rocket parts.

    I can see India being bought as their politicians are very crooked, but doubt China would be willing since they have far too much money invested. Neither countries were interested in Iran sanctions.

    Most politicians are crooked but didn't get to where they are by being stupid... sanctions by India would be very self defeating considering about 70% of Indias military uses equipment from Russia or the Soviet Union.

    So, those sanctions could include parts for proton rockets, engines of BE-200, An-148, turbine engines for ships, helicopters, and so on.

    Russia has over time worked hard to fix this reliance on Ukrainian parts/equipment. It is worst in terms of marine gas turbines and helicopter engines but both these problems have been solved and Russia has developed Russian alternatives.

    Except that I'd do it without the threats.
    Keep calm and do your thing, no need to advertise it, nor to pressure anyone by saying 'I could do this'....
    Just do it, and pretend you're not involved in it. Act like 'The West' has done times and times before.

    Not as a threat... as a reaction... so that when they do what they plan to do you can say you warned them and do what you said you were going to do.

    Yeah. I am in for maximum escalation. This is the time to press forward. I say it from the very beginning.

    I disagree... Russia has already won the Crimea... I would think trying to get a slice of Ukrainian territory would be too destructive and too risky... no point in a civil war to get Antonov and Motor Sich.

    Escalating just plays into western hands as they would love to see Russia embroiled in another Chechnia or local war.

    As for Motor-Sich, there is a plant near St. Petersburg under construction; it's meant exactly to replace Motor-Sich and has been under construction for a year or two now. I think it's supposed to be ready by next year or so

    X2

    I think Russia relies on Ukrainian components on a lot of its missiles too, among other things.

    they depended on Ukrainian jet engines for their cruise missiles and long range attack missiles like Kh-59M, but have replaced those with Russian engines. The R-77 and the IR seeker for the R-73 and R-27T and ET were made in the Ukraine AFAIK, but the new digital models are all Russian made now..... ie RVV-SD etc.

    You are thinking of the new Klimov plant I think. Their biggest priority right now is the VK-2500 engines...however the process is slow. In 2013 they were supposed to make 50 all Russian Vk2500, they only made 10.
    And that is by far not the most numerous engine that Russia buys from Motor-Sich.

    This could impact new helicopter production for Russia... I suspect it will get the attention it needs... perhaps including offers of Russian citizenship and a nice house to those currently working at motor sich... which might not be operating at full production capacity for much longer.

    Massive delays and lost contracts potentially for Russia. There simply isn't another source for these engines to keep up with demand.

    I doubt it would effect export contracts... they can just deliver the engines direct to the purchasing country...

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    Post  TR1 Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:51 am

    That is not how helicopter contracts are carried out.

    The factory does flight testing and everything on every new bird- good luck doing that without engines Wink .

    The Ukrainians could screw Russian Helicopters very badly here, but the catch is they would sink themselves in the process.

    Even a minor delay could outweigh the cost advantage of Motor-Sich and due to strategic security would drive Russia to put effort into establishing its domestic TV3-117 production capability. That would just accelerate Motor-Sich's decline in the Russian helicopter market, something M-S is well aware of. The downside for Russia is it would mean lost contracts, greater costs, and delays of many years...at the end of the day, much lost money compared to today's arrangement. Motor-Sich laying off 40% of its workforce does nothing to help Russian Helicopters if they have 200 backlogged airframes with no powerplants!
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    Post  Sujoy Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:09 pm

    GarryB wrote: sanctions by India would be very self defeating considering about 70% of Indias military uses equipment from Russia or the Soviet Union.

    First , INDIA is opposed to sanctions in all it's form & manifestation .

    Second , INDIA never imposes sanctions on any country .

    Third , INDIA has already rejected sanctions against Russia & has supported Russia's membership of the G 20 .


    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/putins-brics-allies-reject-sanctions-condemn-hostile-language/article17638238/


    At a time when anti US sentiments in INDIA are running high because of the incident involving the Indian diplomat no political party will toe the US line . And if this is NOT enough , INDIA goes into election next month and a new government will come into office not before June .

    What the west is now planning to do is to find ways and means to instigate the TATARS in Crimea to break away from Crimea and declare a separate state .

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/land-key-crimeas-tatars-discuss-future-plans-23105054
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    Post  etaepsilonk Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:28 pm

    Sujoy wrote:

    What the west is now planning to do is to find ways and means to instigate the TATARS in Crimea to break away from Crimea and declare a separate state .

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/land-key-crimeas-tatars-discuss-future-plans-23105054

    That won't work.
    In fact, quite a few "false flag" provocations were made against those tatars, including kidnapping and murdering one man, made to look like "self defense forces" did that:

    Didn't quite work out for them.



    To TR1:

    Well, there's also one option, to buy those engines via third countries.

    Let's say, India orders some 800 engines for their Mi-17 fleet  pirat 
    Who's gonna notice that some will be re-selled to russia  Wink 
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    Post  arpakola Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:19 pm

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    Post  arpakola Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:37 pm

    arpakola
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    Post  arpakola Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:11 pm


    from NATO sponsored NGO Vice news..


    problems..?
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 2014-03-28-13383-62410
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 2014-03-28-13383-62409
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:34 pm

    GarryB wrote:they depended on Ukrainian jet engines for their cruise missiles and long range attack missiles like Kh-59M, but have replaced those with Russian engines. The R-77 and the IR seeker for the R-73 and R-27T and ET were made in the Ukraine AFAIK, but the new digital models are all Russian made now..... ie RVV-SD etc.

    I don't know what the status is like in recent years but Lvov-based Elektron built seekers used in Kh-29s and Kh-59s/Kh-59Ms; the later are a relatively new missile series while the Kh-29s have some modernised variants that are offered for export or could potentially be ordered by Russian forces.
    Apparently a Belarus firm offered a replacement for those seekers some years before, so its probably not a big issue even if Russian manufacturers still do rely on those components.

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    Post  sepheronx Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:41 pm

    I am surprised they need to import from these smaller post soviet countries. Why not make them in Russia? Wouldnt it be cheaper to have them in Russia?

    Hopefully they can localize all production, including engines for helicopters and seekers.
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    Post  Austin Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:56 pm

    UN chief: Putin promised no new moves in Ukraine

     UNITED NATIONS (AP) -- Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin assured him he had no intention of making another military move into Ukraine following the annexation of Crimea.

    Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin echoed the UN chief, saying Putin made clear in a March 18 statement that there was not going to be any new Russian move into Ukraine. He accused unnamed countries of "trying to artificially whip up the atmosphere of international crisis."

    The new Ukrainian government and the West have voiced concerns about a possible invasion into pro-Russian eastern and southern Ukraine following Moscow's buildup of its troops near the border.

     Ban and Churkin spoke to reporters after the secretary-general briefed the Security Council behind closed doors on his recent talks with Putin in Moscow and Ukraine's leaders in Kiev.

    "Some parties were trying to whip up tension - Russian aggression is imminent, or something like that, throwing wild assessments of the presence of our troops allegedly on the border with Ukraine," Churkin said.

    "Our forces in Russia are undergoing their usual routine, staying in their barracks or doing some training," he said. "But there is no worry of any Russian initiative against Ukraine."

    Churkin said there have been four inspections along the Russia-Ukraine border by about a dozen countries this month - including one by the United States, Germany and Ukraine - "and none of them told us they saw anything particularly disconcerting."

    He said Putin told Russia's defense minister on Friday to return Ukraine's military hardware from Crimea, adding "this is not something you do if you plan anything dramatic against this country."

    Ban said during his visits to Moscow and Kiev on March 20-21 "emotions were running high ... and tensions have been very highly charged." He said he urged leaders in both countries to de-escalate the situation and engage in direct talks, and called on Ukraine's leaders to address domestic concerns that Russia has.

    But the secretary-general said "President Putin ... told me that he had no intention to make any military move."

    Churkin said the effort to whip up an international crisis "is not helpful at all." What all parties need to do is help the Ukrainians get out of the crisis in the country, he said.

    Churkin said Russia has spelled out its views of what needs to be done to "our international colleagues" and the Ukrainians.

    "The armed groups must be disarmed. The radicals must be reined in, and most importantly there must be (a) constitutional process ... and the results of a constitutional assembly must be put to a referendum," Churkin said. Then, there will be a new constitution "where all the regions of the country will be comfortable about where they are, about their rights, and about where their country is going.

    Russia has pushed strongly for federalizing Ukraine - giving its regions more autonomy - but Ukraine's interim authorities in Kiev have rejected such a move.

    Churkin said the Ukrainians and their Western supporters only want to talk about a presidential election on May 25, which he said would take place "in a situation of political chaos in the country."

    "There is no political leader in sight who might be able to unite the country," he said. "All the politicians one can hear about are extremely divisive for the Ukrainian society."

    Churkin said Russia is being urged to engage in dialogue and is ready to talk if there's a response to its views of what must be done.

    The Ukrainians say they can't hold a constitutional assembly now because there's no one to organize it, so Churkin proposed that the international community help. And he reiterated Russia's call for the establishment of an international contact group that could take on this role.
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    Post  Austin Sun Mar 30, 2014 6:09 pm

    Putin’s spokesman: dialogue with Merkel amidst Ukrainian crisis “worth its weight in gold”

    BERLIN, March 30, /ITAR-TASS/. Contacts between Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a situation like the crisis around Ukraine are “worth their weight in gold,” Russian president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday in an interview with Germany’s public-service television broadcaster ZDF.

    “Merkel’s role is rather big, taking into account the constructive and rather open relations with Vladimir Putin,” he said. “Since the very beginning of the crisis, the two [leaders\ have been maintaining constant dialogue, and such frequent contacts make it possible at least to bring their positions closer. In such acute situation, such contacts are worth their weight in gold. It is a secret to no one that the positions on the Ukrainian crisis are different but the dialogue is extremely useful and we hope this dialogue will be continued.”

    Peskov characterized this dialogue as “constructive on the one hand, but rather difficult on the other hand.” Interaction between state figures, in his words, stems from the interests of their countries, since each of them seeks to defend the positions of his or her state.

    When asked whether the Russian president was ready to meet with the German chancellor, Peskov noted, “We do not know as of yet.” “Previous plans provided for contacts in various formats, currently talks are underway at the expert level,” he said, adding that the Russian side wanted to continue the direct dialogue. “As it was said during a meeting with Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser, it is better to speak to each other than to speak about each other,” Peskov stressed.
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    Post  Werewolf Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:45 am

    Vice News belongs to FOX (News Corp).


    There are 5 major companies that own almost every western Main Stream Media and dozens of european Subcorporations like Axel Springer Verlag.


    News Corp owns, FOX News all FOX medias, New York Post, Associated Press, owns over 200 regional/city newspapers in world metropols in over 36 countries, it also has its fingers in russian Vedomosti, several dozens of "Lifestyle Magazines". Sub corporations in France,Germany,UK,NZ,Australia,Canada and more.

    AOL/TW owns, TNT,HBO,CNN,TW Sports, Warner Bros. and Time Warner part of Comcast (NBC) MSNBC and all NBC subnetworks, etc., They own Magazines like The Times, Life, Fortune and countless Lifestyle magazines, Music Labels etc.

    VIACOM owns, MTV, UPN Network, CBS Network, Nickelodeon, The Free Press, Paramount Pictures, Comedy Central, BET Networks, VIVA and more.

    Disney owns, ABC Network, ESPN, all Disney channels, A&E, History Channel, Lifetime, Lucas Film/Arts (Star Wars Franchise), Hollywood Records (big row of Hollywood studios)

    Clear Channel owns over 1200 radio stations only in US, 37 TV stations, owning radio station junction and administration for Canadian/American transmitting, has used its influence in Europe to shotdown Hotbird 13 of PressTV (Iran), along with one dozen other Iranian medias in the entire EU.

    Hollywood itself is primarilly run by Disney, Time Warners, Paramount Pictures, News Corp itself, CBS Corp., MGM (The Lion), Comcast (NBC) and New Yorker Sony Music Enterntainment Corp.

    So much for the "free Media" in the west, almost everything owned by 5 companies.

    http://www.allmystery.de/i/t75a4aa_media_concentration.png
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    Post  calripson Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:31 am

    The owners and executives of those 5 entities are also completely non-representative of the American population. One reason Russia is presented so negatively in the "western media" is the perceived obstacle she presents to both US global hegemony and Israeli regional hegemony.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:18 am

    "We must shoot'em in the head" - a Ukrainian Nazi sponsor to the counter-coup protesters in the East:

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    Post  GarryB Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:17 pm

    I am surprised they need to import from these smaller post soviet countries. Why not make them in Russia? Wouldnt it be cheaper to have them in Russia?

    If a company is set up in the Ukraine and is already making components how could it possibly be cheaper to set up a new factory in Russia to make these components?

    Odds are that that the new factory would be more efficient than the old Soviet era factory being used and fewer people would likely be needed to make a much better quality product but it wont be cheaper until quite a few have been made...


    It is the same with computer chips... you don't think they are made in China or Taiwan because they are the only countries that make them? Production in those countries was based on low income work force that could produce quality products cheaply with as few duds as possible.

    If it is a strategic resource like a computer chip then domestic production is critical for info security, but for optical lenses or day time cameras... why not buy from the Ukraine... well we know why now.
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    Post  arpakola Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:28 pm





    Chernihiv Oblast
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 Attachment
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:30 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    I am surprised they need to import from these smaller post soviet countries. Why not make them in Russia? Wouldnt it be cheaper to have them in Russia?

    If a company is set up in the Ukraine and is already making components how could it possibly be cheaper to set up a new factory in Russia to make these components?

    Odds are that that the new factory would be more efficient than the old Soviet era factory being used and fewer people would likely be needed to make a much better quality product but it wont be cheaper until quite a few have been made...


    It is the same with computer chips... you don't think they are made in China or Taiwan because they are the only countries that make them? Production in those countries was based on low income work force that could produce quality products cheaply with as few duds as possible.

    If it is a strategic resource like a computer chip then domestic production is critical for info security, but for optical lenses or day time cameras... why not buy from the Ukraine... well we know why now.

    Thats the thing. If they move it to Russia, then they not only create jobs, but as well with automation, they can reduce overall costs making it cheaper in long run. As well, they wont become reliant on another country and their silly politics. Microprocessors for military in Russia are made in Russia. For industrial applications and alike, made in Taiwan. But helicopter engines and optical systems/avionics for strategic business like Mil or Kamov should not come from outside because can ruin business for Russia.
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    Post  arpakola Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:24 pm



    The role og NGO's .. (call me FEMEN)
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 1393599226-femen-activists-urinate-on-the-photo-of-ukrainian-president-in-paris_3389898

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 1545640_736359419717389_587869086_n
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    Post  etaepsilonk Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:04 pm

    FSB agent arrested in Kiev  Laughing 
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:53 pm

    arpakola wrote:

    The role og NGO's .. (call me FEMEN)
    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 1393599226-femen-activists-urinate-on-the-photo-of-ukrainian-president-in-paris_3389898

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 1545640_736359419717389_587869086_n

    George Clueless shows how much of Hollywood is dominated by celebutards!pwnd  The fact that he promotes that die-in-the-wool racist and xenophobe Tymoshenko, shows how fraudulent the leftists in Hollyweird are! The Femen characters follow the same pattern of NGO destabilization as Pussy Riot. Just like Pussy Riot they commit obscene acts in public to get attention, and when they get arrested the western media lauds their obscene efforts! Pussy Riot made their names when they stole a frozen chicken in a open market and used the frozen chicken as a dildo as a publicized sexual act, and then they got arrested...the western media made it seem like Pussy Riot was engaging in a act of defiance for freedom!Embarassed  How dare those Russian savages have public obscentiy laws, only NATO countries are allowed to have them! Rolling Eyes

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #2 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #2

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