Khepesh wrote: eehnie wrote:
I think the primary reason for the stop of the military actions after the battle of Debaltsevo is that Novorrussia reached its military goals in the area. Only that. Nothing related to the pressure Hollande or Merkel. Minsk II has not value as agreement because no-one of the sides is satisfied with it.
The question is that Novorrussia has assured the military help of Russia in the needed degree, but it is fairly more prudent in its military apetite, surely advised by Russia.
In the other side, the government of Ukraine wants war, wants to lead all the world to fight against Russia, but has not the needed support for it. Basically Ukraine has not the European support for a big war, and the United States want Europe to pay this war and Ukraine to put the deaths. The United States want the European military budgets to be increased by fear to Russia, but it backfires because no-one attacks to an enemy by fear. Fear means defense, not attack. Europe is on defense mode, like Russia, while the United States remains on attack mode (with budget limits) despite the change form GW Bush to Obama.
I think new cases like the Battle of Debaltsevo are possible still, but both sides know that the next battle surely will be bigger and more difficult than the previous. I think new battles are possible, even with significant but limited changes in the current front line. In my opinion the changes can be more likely in the front of the Donets River, and also in the front of Mariupol.
Debaltsevo was only partial success, and I think if everything had gone according to plan Svetlodarsk will have been taken and ukrops pushed some way back from the northern side of Gorlovka and there would be no continous fighting at Zaitsevo. IMO, while Minsk-1 was crap, Minsk-2 was a device by which both sides had an excuse to stop fighting, for while ukrops were beaten out of Debaltsevo, they had fought hard and long enough to seriously slow down VSN operations, particulary at Popasnya and around Svetlodarsk, to make further operations turn into a meatgrinder with no clear sight of reaching objectives without "divisions of Buryats" and some very and too obvious help. But the offensive I mentioned was the ukrops one that never happened. It was on early evening of 24th August after Ukraine Independance Day celebrations that Poroshenko was talked to by Merkel and Hollande, and next day everything went quiet, the bombardments of Gorlovka stopped, of Kuibishevsky, Telmanovo, everything, because there was no need as offensive had been called off.
Yes, certainly from Russia the "advice" to the needed degree, and I think most here would be in agreement that it is to let ukrops attack.
And yes, Kiev wants the West to help acheive military victory, but only US is willing, or capable in any significant way. I know I have often said that Poroshenko will ultimately take his fate in his own hands, and he will have to, but perhaps he waits to see if Clinton wins as perhaps from her there has been words of hope that when she is president then action may follow. But if it Trump wins, or opinion polls by late August show him in front with clear margin, then Poroshenko may not want to wait. I or anybody can look into the cloudy crystal ball and make guesses, but it's all in Poroshenko's mind and in what those around him think. Another way of seeing this is that say, for instance, whoever wins in November says to Poroshenko to attack and we will back you up, then without causing WWIII, and without armored formations in Ukraine, US can only back Kiev up with words and $, and it seems they are not even very generous with $ at this time. Poroshenko is between the "rock and hard place", military defeat if he attacks, political and potential coup if he ends ATO and withdraws from occupied areas of Donbass. To end ATO is probably psychologically not possible for him and many around him, and will I am sure lead to serious disturbaces in Ukraine, but, as with all military ventures, there is some hope, some hope that you really do surpise your enemy, or they make significant errors. Other than return to full cold war, or even some military actions, I don't think America has anything to offer Poroshenko that can help in in a serious way, so it's all on his shoulders no matter what loony wins US election, and Obama will not help by anything more than talk.
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