The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

Khepesh wrote:ukrops are making a commotion because they say that Colonel-General Alexander Lentsov is to be in PMR from 10 to 15 April. Lentsov is long accused by ukrops of being the real commander of all VSN. ukrops point out that this arrival date of 10 April is significant as it is the anniversary of liberation of Odessa during GPW, and they try to say that some large scale provocations may occur in Odessa. A visit by general Lentsov to PMR is denied, and it is asked why ukrops are fabricating this story, unless as smokescreen to use as excuse for any provocations they might be preparing in Odessa. Lentsov was leader of the control and co-ordination mission from September 2014 to monitor the ceasefire.

Also said that the S-300 batteries that were deployed on the eastern side of Odessa have been moved east of Kherson towards Crimea. This is said by ex Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexei Shuravko. Previously it was only vague rumors, but now it seems more solid evidence of re-deployment.

auslander wrote:Krimu is an island in everything but name. A good amount of the border on the orc side is swamps and marshes so any attack by the orc wannabes will be channeled through two areas

Ispan wrote:Khepesh, is there are any evidence they are deploying military units to Crimea border? Not just trains with material, but proper units with infantry, headquarters and logistical tail.

I still think it is a sleight of hand and those tanks and artillery are bound for Volnovakha.

From militia reports it seems as of last night and today the VSN are trying to take back PROMKO, the industrial zone at Avdeyevka.

Also, the capture of prisoners , two officers, seems to confirm indeed an Ukrainian offensive is planned. The increase in the fighting over the past week and the buildup confirm this.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:

auslander wrote:Krimu is an island in everything but name. A good amount of the border on the orc side is swamps and marshes so any attack by the orc wannabes will be channeled through two areas

One area - every Ukro attack must come along the E97 route, passing through Armyansk. It is small, weirdly positioned and there is a channel passing right through it but no oother place can serve as a staging area (the axis advance along the E105 route can be simply blocked by blowing up the bridge)

With all superiority in air and arty assets, you could defend entrance to Crimea with frontline strength of 1 regiment.

Khepesh wrote:Pavel Zhebrivsky, head of administration of Kiev occupied DNR territory, has said that for them to take all of Donetsk, and by extension LNR as well, will need a major war with Russia. At this point a normal rational person would think, "Ooops, not doing that, goodbye", but ukrops are not normal, so Zhebrivsky says that he welcomes war and that UA will beat "Russian terrorists" out of "occupied territories" in two weeks. He said this today on channel 5. This is not the first time he has given strong hint of imminent war this year, but he is told what to say, and ukrops media told what to broadcast.

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Pavel Zhebrivsky, head of administration of Kiev occupied DNR territory, has said that for them to take all of Donetsk, and by extension LNR as well, will need a major war with Russia. At this point a normal rational person would think, "Ooops, not doing that, goodbye", but ukrops are not normal, so Zhebrivsky says that he welcomes war and that UA will beat "Russian terrorists" out of "occupied territories" in two weeks. He said this today on channel 5. This is not the first time he has given strong hint of imminent war this year, but he is told what to say, and ukrops media told what to broadcast.

Group photo of russiadefence.net:


Everyone else is below...

auslander wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:

auslander wrote:Krimu is an island in everything but name. A good amount of the border on the orc side is swamps and marshes so any attack by the orc wannabes will be channeled through two areas

One area - every Ukro attack must come along the E97 route, passing through Armyansk. It is small, weirdly positioned and there is a channel passing right through it but no oother place can serve as a staging area (the axis advance along the E105 route can be simply blocked by blowing up the bridge)

With all superiority in air and arty assets, you could defend entrance to Crimea with frontline strength of 1 regiment.

Yes, all true. An attack at the Peredmistni crossing is foolish, the bridges can be blown in an instant and whatever was allowed to enter Krimu will be in the POW camps shortly after dawn the first day. On the west side the orcs are reduced to attacking on a narrow front with their logistics and second echelons concentrated in a narrow neck of land. Think target rich environment.

The swamps and marshes along the water barriers are charming, I and my wife have been in them with the oozing black slime up to my chest and her neck. The land surrounding the marshland will not support a Niva with balloon tyres let alone anything military. An attack on Krimu is suicidal to a fault.

The orc navy is a bad joke. They have one aging frigate that is marginally serviceable, the rest are small patrol boats. The last of the 'ships' they abandoned in Sevastopol Harbor are being cut up for scrap in Inkerman as I write. They were nothing but rusted hulks and when the hull is cut open everything inside is nothing but rust and decaying machinery.

Khepesh wrote:Motorola has joined in the chorus that ukrops will attack as soon as the ground is dry enough.

Ispan wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Motorola has joined in the chorus that ukrops will attack as soon as the ground is dry enough.

How long will that take? Temperatures are on the rise for past week, and this week seems reasonably sunny and top temperatures are in the 20s. Earlier we said about 20 April, but spring looks warm and dry so far. One week more, perhaps?

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Pavel Zhebrivsky, head of administration of Kiev occupied DNR territory, has said that for them to take all of Donetsk, and by extension LNR as well, will need a major war with Russia. At this point a normal rational person would think, "Ooops, not doing that, goodbye", but ukrops are not normal, so Zhebrivsky says that he welcomes war and that UA will beat "Russian terrorists" out of "occupied territories" in two weeks. He said this today on channel 5. This is not the first time he has given strong hint of imminent war this year, but he is told what to say, and ukrops media told what to broadcast.

Group photo of russiadefence.net:


Everyone else is below...

VladimirSahin wrote:This new possible offensive will be a interesting one...

d_taddei2 wrote:

i was in Donetsk when kicked off and in Crimea a week after it was annexed, (had to get Russia visa) and went by train the Ukrainian border guards were a joke, rude and un-professional but the Russian border guards were friendly and professional and used hand held computers and even cracked a joke with me.
I have pics and videos of my travels there. But on the point about ships etc, i know some ships were sent back in the end the Russia saw that it was too much effort cutting some of them up and by handing them back to Ukraine was almost a token sign of peace, but the Russians knew that Ukraine would never have the money to put these ships/subs back into service and even if they did they would be outdated. I person who i stayed with was ex soviet navy, intelligence officer and mostly worked on subs he was telling me that when the Russians sank a few small Ukrainian ships to stop the rest of the Ukrainian ships from leaving harbour, the Russians had to guard the Kommuna ship as the Ukrainians wanted to capture it and use to to remove the sunk vessels. Not sure if anyone knows much about the Kommuna its the oldest ship in service in the world, and Russia gave it a re-vamp some years ago, apparently the Russians considered scrapping it but realised with upgrades the vessel still had a use and that it would cost more to design and build a ship for the same role. Now this does deserve some praise, its was Laid down: 12 November 1912, Launched: 17 November 1913 and
Commissioned: 14 July 1915 so the ship is 100yrs old. see some pics below. and some other pics i took while in Sevastopol, and Simferopol

"How long will ukrops be able to continue the war and with what forces? There is information on the internet that says that Malyshev plant is gearing to war and working three shifts"

"Ukrops have now almost reached the peak of readiness in terms of the quantity and quality of their heavy equipment and their training. Apparently they have nothing left in storage, maybe enough crap to maintain the size of the current equipment fleet for a few months, but then a gradual decline will set in due to losses and degredation. Therefore they have relatively little time this year to launch an offensive before their overall combat capability begins to decline. We should not forget that with nothing to do, not only the VSN degrades, so also does ATO.

The situation of "We would rather die [than surrender]" between Russia and Ukraine can last a long time, but it will still end by who is strongest in military conflict and the capitulation of one of the parties. There are no other options."

Strelkov wrote:Apparently they have nothing left in storage, maybe enough crap to maintain the size of the current equipment fleet for a few months, but then a gradual decline will set in due to losses and degredation.