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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:58 pm

    Three press releases covering a couple of days out of Interfax today. The numbers are building up. Perhaps by using different spokesmen they are hoping people think some of this is duplicated announcements when maybe they are not..

    Two Ukrainian servicemen have been killed and 11 others wounded in the military operation area in the eastern part of the country over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian presidential spokesman Oleksandr Motuzianyk said.
    "Two our warriors have been killed and eight others wounded in action over the past twenty-four hours. Three more National Guard servicemen were injured by hitting an explosive device," Motuzianyk said at a news briefing in Kyiv on Saturday.
    There have been no attacks in the Luhansk sector lately, Motuzianyk said. "In the Donetsk sector, along the entire frontline, the enemy has used heavy weapons, particularly 82mm and 120mm mortars. Illegal armed units violated the ceasefire in Troitske, Mayorsk, Luhanske, Pisky, Avdiyivka, and Zaitseve. A total of 40 mines have been fired upon the ATO [antiterrorist operation] forces' positions," he said.
    The most complicated situation is currently near Avdiyivka, where Ukrainian government forces "often have to return fire so as to stop provocations."



    One Ukrainian soldier was killed and another seven were wounded in Donbas in the last day, presidential administration speaker for Anti-Terrorist Operation issues Andriy Lysenko has said.
    "In the past 24 hours, one Ukrainian serviceman was killed and seven wounded in hostilities," he said at a briefing in Kyiv on Monday.



    Four Ukrainian military servicemen have been injured in the special operation zone in eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian presidential administration spokesman for Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) issues Andriy Lysenko said on Sunday.
    "The past 24 hours saw none of our soldiers killed and four injured as a result of the hostilities. A Ukrainian volunteer medic was also injured as a result of shelling near Avdiyivka," he said at a briefing in Kyiv on Sunday.
    In the Luhansk area, the enemy opened fire on the village of Nyzhnioteple from the right bank of the Siverskyi Donets, Lysenko said.
    In the Donetsk area, on a part of the Zaitseve-Maiorsk front, the enemy used 122 millimeter howitzers, having launched 160 shells. The shelling was most intense between 05:00 and 08:00 in the morning.
    The most difficult situation remains near Avdiyivka, Lysenko said. "The ATO forces are holding the occupied positions and delivering effective fire in response," he said.
    In all, 43 shell attacks have been launched in the Donetsk area in the past 24 hours, with one in three of them involving heavy weapons, he said.
    In the Mariupol sector, the enemy violated the ceasefire four times: a sniper operated in Maryinka and an 82 millimeter mortar launcher was used in Shyrokyne. The adversary also opened fire in Talakivka, the presidential spokesperson said.
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    Post  SturmGuard Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:50 pm

    Gentlemen, I am in need of enlightment. Is there any information on the number of Ukrainian Army, special police and SBU servicemen who switched sides and went to rebels?

    Likewise, any info on the number of those who remained in Crimea?

    Finally, did Kiev publish and all-encompassing number of "traitors" and "deserters"?


    On one hand, I would like to reconstruct the starting point of Kiev army, but, more importantly, I would like to know how did the rebels and Russian Federation pick out the reliable, competent and/or trustworthy from among the ranks of Ukrainian "deserters" and "traitors". There is s high probability of opportunistic (better pay) and even hostile (spying) motivation among
    some of them.

    Thank you in advance.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:37 pm

    SturmGuard wrote:Gentlemen, I am in need of enlightment. Is there any information on the number of Ukrainian Army, special police and SBU servicemen who switched sides and went to rebels?

    Likewise, any info on the number of those who remained in Crimea?

    Finally, did Kiev publish and all-encompassing number of "traitors" and "deserters"?


    On one hand, I would like to reconstruct the starting point of Kiev army, but, more importantly, I would like to know how did the rebels and Russian Federation pick out the reliable, competent and/or trustworthy from among the ranks of Ukrainian "deserters" and "traitors". There is s high probability of opportunistic (better pay) and even hostile (spying) motivation among
    some of them.

    Thank you in advance.

    Google is not your friend, but it's still useful.

    For SBU numbers are staggering. The Ukrainan secret squirrels were all hardcore Nationalists...


    http://qha.com.ua/en/society/only-10-of-sbu-staff-left-crimea-after-occupation/135955/

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

    http://www.ssu.gov.ua./ua/news/1/category/2/view/586

    Names and data for closet Moskalis
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:41 pm

    Poroshenko has appointed a new commander of ATO, ex commander at Debaltsevo, Sergei Popka, well, I'm sure he will make an ass of his new position.
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    Post  Guest Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:05 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 CepPshbWEAAFCGm

    Prepare guys, real deal is coming up
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:20 pm

    Let me guess, more or less the same satellite photos of blurry tractors claimed as tanks and obscure photos of Soviet equipment somewhere in Ukraine or Russia, being used to claim a location or another?

    All the last "damning" evidence was garbage too.
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:37 pm

    And Dmitry Peskov has said that the western media attacks will increase very much now.
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    Post  Guest Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:44 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Ceo-gAiWwAADvG6

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Radomir-pocuca



    Naturally take note that Počuča is not what he likes to claim for himself. Lets say that he likes money.... big time.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:44 pm

    Not like it will do anything anyway.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:56 pm

    So there's a media ramp up to push the 'Ebil Russkie Invasion' angle in Western media? So is this indirect confirmation of at least one last push to retake Donbass by the Ukrappy's in the coming weeks? Let's Hope NAF can captures Maruipol, and should not stop until Odessa is captured!
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    Post  Godric Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:20 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:So there's a media ramp up to push the 'Ebil Russkie Invasion' angle in Western media? So is this indirect confirmation of at least one last push to retake Donbass by the Ukrappy's in the coming weeks? Let's Hope NAF can captures Maruipol, and should not stop until Odessa is captured!

    not captured .... Liberated ..... along with all of NovoRossiya
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    Post  Ispan Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:20 pm

    What is strange is that there is no briefind for today yet. Maybe the fighting is so hard they don't have time for press releases? They just announced 250 shellings.

    Also Poroshenko made some noise about "international peacekeepers".
    https://dninews.com/article/poroshenko-proposed-other-countries-restore-donbass-destroyed-ukraine

    And straight from Kiev, they are saying there will be war when weather warms up.

    https://dninews.com/article/kiev-military-actions-donbass-resume-when-it-gets-warmer


    All this is noise to justify breaking Minsk.
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    Post  Khepesh Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:36 pm

    Weather forecast for Donetsk until 11 April with maximum day and night temperatures and possibility of rain. It can be seen that it improves quickly after Monday 4.

    Some are seeing Poroshenko's visit to Kramatorsk today as an indicator of possible activity as the rare visits by him to the front have in the past been followed by an increase in activity. Also ukrops themselves are "talking up" the possibility of imminent offensive, tho that is probably bluster. But with Zakharchenko also in the front line at Yasinovataya and also saying offensive will come when weather improves, both sides seem to be talking their way into war. Zakharchenko said "When it is warm" and to me it is warm from 20C but it will still need time for ground to dry out sufficient for mobile warfare. So, end of April?

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 5371b9b8fb8a

    Edit: Seems to be intense infantry combat at Marinka that is not yet reported.
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    Post  PapaDragon Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:37 pm


    Well unfortunately for ukrops there is no media push in MSM whatsoever. Jihadi Julian alone does not count for sh*t.

    Ukraine is forgotten topic in the West. Kiev will try an offensive but honestly, I think that they are being led to a slaughter.

    End of April is way too close. Simply not enough time for preemptive media ops.
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    Post  Ispan Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:54 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    End of April is way too close. Simply not enough time for preemptive media ops.

    As I see it I always wonder, why they take forever to launch an attack? dunno

    Weather and mud are not so important considerations. There is no aviation so cloud cover is irrelevant. there are no reports of ukros preparing airfields like in past times, so I think they are not using aviation next time simply because they can't fly anymore. Regarding mud, I might be wrong, but I don't think the T-64 tank has so much ground pressure that it cannot cross muddy fields. Even wheeled BTR can cope. It would be harder on the infantry, though, and shells are not as effective.

    Each week of these ininterrupted attrition small scale fights costs the junta army a couple battallions a week, plus the expenditure of munitions. That means their forces would be significantly weakened before the decisive battle. Let's say 10 battallions out of 50. That is 20% losses before the real fighting starts. Why waste time and men? Sure, maybe they are getting replacements, but all reports suggest they are short of orks. There are fewer battallions than one year ago, and many units are incomplete.


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    Post  KoTeMoRe Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:15 pm

    There has been no modernization of the whole Aircraft pool. The workhorse of the UA, their Mil Mi 8/24 fleet is open for ManPads and their Strike force (Su 24/25/27) are a nice threat, but most are unworthy of flying.
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    Post  Guest Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:23 pm

    Ispan wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    End of April is way too close. Simply not enough time for preemptive media ops.

    As I see it I always wonder, why they take forever to launch an attack? dunno

    Weather and mud are not so important considerations. There is no aviation so cloud cover is irrelevant. there are no reports of ukros preparing airfields like in past times, so I think they are not using aviation next time simply because they can't fly anymore. Regarding mud, I might be wrong, but I don't think the T-64 tank has so much ground pressure that it cannot cross muddy fields. Even wheeled BTR can cope. It would be harder on the infantry, though, and shells are not as effective.

    Each week of these ininterrupted attrition small scale fights costs the junta army a couple battallions a week, plus the expenditure of munitions. That means their forces would be significantly weakened before the decisive battle. Let's say 10 battallions out of 50. That is 20% losses before the real fighting starts. Why waste time and men? Sure, maybe they are getting replacements, but all reports suggest they are short of orks. There are fewer battallions than one year ago, and many units are incomplete.



    Even Ukrainians are not capable of losing batallion sized unit per week in low intense combat like this. Unless they are commiting group suicides every day.

    Mobility is not the only issue. Have you ever tried to change tank track or flat tire on truck/APC in 15cm of mud Smile? I did, i probably still have some mud deep in my ears 6 years later. Infantry + rain + mud on offensive is bad idea in general not only due to mobility but morale, wet supplies, wet ammo, wet food... also various optoelectonics work alot worse when challenged by fog, rain, clouds... including artillery radars. List is extensive.

    Ukrainians might not have many operational aircraft but i wouldnt say none or exclude air strikes completely, they seem to have refubrished quite a few crafts during 2015.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:29 pm

    Militarov wrote:
    Ispan wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    End of April is way too close. Simply not enough time for preemptive media ops.

    As I see it I always wonder, why they take forever to launch an attack? dunno

    Weather and mud are not so important considerations. There is no aviation so cloud cover is irrelevant. there are no reports of ukros preparing airfields like in past times, so I think they are not using aviation next time simply because they can't fly anymore. Regarding mud, I might be wrong, but I don't think the T-64 tank has so much ground pressure that it cannot cross muddy fields. Even wheeled BTR can cope. It would be harder on the infantry, though, and shells are not as effective.

    Each week of these ininterrupted attrition small scale fights costs the junta army a couple battallions a week, plus the expenditure of munitions. That means their forces would be significantly weakened before the decisive battle. Let's say 10 battallions out of 50. That is 20% losses before the real fighting starts. Why waste time and men? Sure, maybe they are getting replacements, but all reports suggest they are short of orks. There are fewer battallions than one year ago, and many units are incomplete.



    Even Ukrainians are not capable of losing batallion sized unit per week in low intense combat like this. Unless they are commiting group suicides every day.

    Mobility is not the only issue. Have you ever tried to change tank track or flat tire on truck/APC in 15cm of mud Smile? I did, i probably still have some mud deep in my ears 6 years later. Infantry + rain + mud on offensive is bad idea in general not only due to mobility but morale, wet supplies, wet ammo, wet food... also various optoelectonics work alot worse when challenged by fog, rain, clouds... including artillery radars. List is extensive.

    Ukrainians might not have many operational aircraft but i wouldnt say none or exclude air strikes completely, they seem to have refubrished quite a few crafts during 2015.

    The actual available force is smaller than the Russian group in Syria at its height. Against "Dobrovolec" Strela 10's and Tor's and Buks, it's frankly a VERY bad idea. Their achilles' heel is still the chopper fleet. It's safer (barely) to move on land.
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    Post  Guest Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:57 pm

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Cek1gihWQAAc_Pn

    Now you can oficially cross Russian border with "Novorossian" documents
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    Post  Ispan Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:05 pm

    Militarov wrote:
    Even Ukrainians are not capable of losing batallion sized unit per week in low intense combat like this. Unless they are commiting group suicides every day.

    50 casualties a day of killed and wounded is entirely reasonable and matches the reports appearing. And that is everyday. Trench warfare is a bitch.

    For me "battallion" means around 400 men, I know in theory is larger than that, between 600-800 men, but usually units almost never have complete rosters and fighting strength is between 400-500. But I did not meant entire battallions being wiped out, just suffering enough casualties that they have to be rotated out of the line.



    Mobility is not the only issue. Have you ever tried to change tank track or flat tire on truck/APC in 15cm of mud Smile? I did, i probably still have some mud deep in my ears 6 years later. Infantry + rain + mud on offensive is bad idea in general not only due to mobility but morale, wet supplies, wet ammo, wet food... also various optoelectonics work alot worse when challenged by fog, rain, clouds... including artillery radars. List is extensive.

    Excellent points. It is hard for somebody from a dry country like me to realize what is mud like. Now that you mention it, I remember once going up to the war monument of Sevastopol in winter and crossing  some muddy ground wich sucked at my shoes and felt like clay, I had never experienced anything like that. I got an inkling then of what was like on the trenches of WWI.
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    Post  SturmGuard Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:13 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Google is not your friend, but it's still useful.

    For SBU numbers are staggering. The Ukrainan secret squirrels were all hardcore Nationalists...


    http://qha.com.ua/en/society/only-10-of-sbu-staff-left-crimea-after-occupation/135955/

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

    http://www.ssu.gov.ua./ua/news/1/category/2/view/586

    Names and data for closet Moskalis

    First of all, thank you for the response and links provided. What are your thoughts on ex-UAF servicemen among rebels and their number?

    Secondly, do you have any idea how the Russians picked through the former Ukrainian employees that decided to stay in Crimea?

    I posted because I hoped some of the forum residents might have some precious nuggets of info, anecdotes and rumours detailing the subject.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:29 pm

    SturmGuard wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:

    Google is not your friend, but it's still useful.

    For SBU numbers are staggering. The Ukrainan secret squirrels were all hardcore Nationalists...


    http://qha.com.ua/en/society/only-10-of-sbu-staff-left-crimea-after-occupation/135955/

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

    http://www.ssu.gov.ua./ua/news/1/category/2/view/586

    Names and data for closet Moskalis

    First of all, thank you for the response and links provided. What are your thoughts on ex-UAF servicemen among rebels and their number?

    Secondly, do you have any idea how the Russians picked through the former Ukrainian employees that decided to stay in Crimea?

    I posted because I hoped some of the forum residents might have some precious nuggets of info, anecdotes and rumours detailing the subject.

    Rule of the thumb in this cases (as I've been through "regime-change" weeding) is threefold.
    1. Politics. 2. Age. 3. Skill.

    The politics are the easiest part. All these people had families. They were professionals. In Crimea. Most of these people were either Sovoks or close enough. We're talking about SBU here. Not conscript military. And frankly SBU knew all the crap at least locally. Something even the US had to admit, these guys stayed afloat during the Nasties/Naughties, because they had the BSF, thus Russia. Basically most of the higher had already rebelled back in 1994. The new guys only made a business choice and a good one. It's the same people, same language, a huge majority are straight out Russians. And frankly for most people East of Kiev, this war has NO FUCKING SENSE.

    Furthermore, there's the problem, for most new guys, that unlike the guys that were in the military, they were probably going to be called back and fight "Russia" over Crimea. We're talking about february/march, at that point there was no Donbass issue yet, and Ukraine had already mobilized. So what do you do? Go Ukraine and maybe earn a pine box or stay where you are, get the job done with less chaos and problems, that in Maidanutistan?

    And then there's the skill. I believe the skill part from Russian perspective was pre-scouted. The BSF guys knew virtually everything they needed from "leaks, moles, traitors". Basically they owned the place. There's also the long term testing, which is being carried out as we're speaking. Which entails observation of elements that might want to play Youri Bondarevski. That's very easy for Russia as it is. They got all coms in Crimea and the West de facto isolated Crimea, thus rendering all underground BS unhealthy...
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    Post  Ispan Mon Mar 28, 2016 11:32 pm

    some reports

    pete john ‏@petejohn10 3 hHace 3 horas

    #DONBASS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 CepfzljWEAEi9JC

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Cepfz-RWsAIiCB9

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Cepf2IBWwAEa47f

    ---------- Post added 28-mar-2016 at 21:29 ----------

    ***


    pete john ‏@petejohn10 52 minHace 52 minutos

    #DONBASS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR FRONTINE REPORTS

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Cep9VqeWEAAYddt

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Cep9W9TWQAU-8Zj

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Cep9XtmWIAAXCth[/QUOTE]

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    Post  Khepesh Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:40 am

    Specific media campaign for offensive not needed as Russophobic attacks have been non stop at all levels for some years. Likely majority in West, tho of course not fools, will take the easy option and simply believe what they are told, mostly because they have no interest in Ukraine. If offensive started tonight, then tomorrow's headlines would be "Putin's army attacks Ukraine", and it will be accepted at face value. Even when the reality emerges, it will not matter for the initial proposition that it is "Putin" is all important, and by the time any truth emerges in the West it will probably be all over.

    Look at all this from perspective of Kiev. They now realise that they have been dumped by EU, and US is no longer cheering them on as it was. I said this many times before, in the end result Poroshenko and his regime will look to their own interests and not consider EU or US or MSM. It is Poroshenko and the others who may end up dangling from lamposts, not Obama or anybody in Brussels. If it becomes that US military aid will not go further than advisors and some low level equipment, and this seems the case, then the overall military situation for Kiev will gradually deteriorate in relation to that of Novorossiya, whose military situation can only constantly improve. The only realistic options for Kiev are to attack as soon as they can, or to fully implement Minsk. But to implement Minsk is defeat. If they cared about their citizens and keeping Ukraine in existance as a State, but without Donbass, they should implement Minsk and accept the backlash from the radikals, which UA will be able to control, or simply eliminate. Doing that saves the most lives and removes any notional possibility of Russia moving into Ukraine beyond DNR and LNR, there will no longer be the possibility of an excuse during a counter offensive. Kiev should also be brave enough to withdraw totally from all DNR and LNR territory and accept it is gone to them forever. Will this happen? I very much doubt it as it needs leadership of the type that does not exist in Kiev. The only other option for them is war, and the options for them have already been discussed here recently and do not need repeating I think.

    To me, the biggest variable is what does US really want, or think it can get. If Washington really does want it's forces in Kharkov and Sumy and Chernigov, then what will it do to achieve this. It could be achieved by Kiev fully implementing Minsk, and withdrawing fully from DNR and LNR. This would be seen as a localised failure by Poroshenko to retake Donbass, but as a long term strategic failure for Russia. US can continue to gamble in Ukraine, or walk away without loss and not even care about fate of Poroshenko, the people, public opinion, anything, they are cynical evil bastards.

    Bearing in mind that for Kiev to fully implement Minsk is a defeat for them, and that over time their military capability will worsen in relation to Novorossiya, does anybody have a viable alternative solution other than war sooner rather than later?
    Walther von Oldenburg
    Walther von Oldenburg


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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:53 am

    Hmm... So basically Ukraine now faces the same sort of situation the Third Reich faced in summer 1943 - fight an offensive operation right now as a last chance to win the war or have it's army slowly ground to a pulp by attrition?

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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #24 - Page 9 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

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