Turkey relations with US and NATO

GarryB wrote:Turkey is an upper tier partner and makes components that go in to all F-35s, so if they want to kick Turkey out of the deal they will need to source those parts from somewhere else, and I suspect Turkey will want compensation for being kicked out... this is Americas hissy fit, Turkey didn't do anything wrong regarding its commitments to the deal AFAIK.

Isos wrote:Also bad for nato as they share secret IFF codes anf they also gave many informations about pretty much anything USA use like patriots, SM missiles, AMRAAM weekness ...

But don't forget France and germany that will still enjoy supllying turkey.

Anyway it's just a matter of time before Turkey leaves NATO by its own. Actually NATO will get destroyed too because of USA. French are already pissed off by US obliging europeans to buy f-35.

Vladimir79 wrote:

GarryB wrote:Turkey is an upper tier partner and makes components that go in to all F-35s, so if they want to kick Turkey out of the deal they will need to source those parts from somewhere else, and I suspect Turkey will want compensation for being kicked out... this is Americas hissy fit, Turkey didn't do anything wrong regarding its commitments to the deal AFAIK.

Lockheed is already making plans to replace them.  The delivery schedule will be delayed by 75 aircraft as per their estimates.  If Turkey buys S-400 they will be violating the end user agreement which says something about compromising the security of it.  

Erdogan going through with this is the best scenario we could have hoped for.  They will have no choice but to buy Su-57 and they will probably get kicked out of NATO.  With an entire invetory of Western crap they can't use they will be buying billions worth of equipment from us.  With them getting kicked out of the NATO MIC their defence industry will turn to moth balls.  

miketheterrible wrote:

Russia may compensate Turkey on its MiC by allowing Turkey to produce components needed for assembling various defense items.  They may even start working on joint venture programs that would obviously work in Russia's favor as well.

But you are right, if all this happens, then Russia gains upper hand by now having access to a large market for sale of weapons.  Of course China would probably try to move in as well.  They could also potentially sell a lot of their western crap to third countries (Jordan, etc) which would want F-16's and or Pakistan who wants Turkish goods anyway (and F-16's as they purchase from Jordan in past) that would give money for Turkey to replenish what they need.

ATLASCUB wrote:After much ado about the ultimatum - it's finally official, and in paper.

Below is the official letter sent to the Turkish MoD, from Patrick M. Shanahan, current Secretary of Defense of the United States.



Threats enumerated:

1. Kicked out of the F-35 program completely (Turkish F-35 pilot students currently in the U.S to be kicked out, Turkey to be denied the purchase of the aircraft, and the manufacturing of parts as part of its supply chain). Didn't Turkey invest millions into this already? ohh boy...

2. CAATSA sanctions (have bipartisan support should Turkey receive the S-400). This might range from blacklisting Turkish defense companies (to kill any export market) to fines (usually in the low billions).

3. "Hinder" Turkish's participation and cooperation within NATO (vague for effect).  My guess is more like blacklisted within the organization itself at least. Wonder how that'll leave Incirlik etc. Although Turkey is already sort of blacklisted within NATO.

4. Hinder Turkey's development goals (that wasn't just mentioned for flowery text - a clear threat of economic war - probably target the lira hard). They go on to explicitly state that the purchase of the S-400 will cause the loss of jobs, GDP (contraction), and trade (closed markets).

That's not to mention the shenanigans going on at Turkey's border with the YPG and the full hybrid war toolkit at the U.S disposal. Plus a full pivot towards Greece which has been an ongoing dance for quite some time now. The Greek Defense Minister is the U.S as we report this (timing is not "coincidence"). https://dod.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/Videos/?videoid=687414

Is this a sign of the beginning of a real break up or will the relationship endure?

Is the trouble worth it for Turkey? or is Erdogan rolling the dice? Unsure whether it's worth it and thus "time will tell"?

Will Turkey be the trial run for CAATSA sanctions implementation?

Will the U.S go through with even half of its threats?

The thing is that they tried to topple the govt. in a regime change coup, that's when the relations with them (USA) were relatively good. If they'll attempt regime change when you listen and follow their orders, then you might as well go their own independent path. If they push too hard, the Turks could consistently block access to the Bosporus & the Dardanelles...such an act would cause shockwaves...if they sign a new Black Sea Treaty of defense on top of the current one, which mires certain 'ambitions' in the Black Sea, the shockwaves could hit 10 on the Richter scale.

Airman wrote:USA wants to by pass Russian gas by using gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. They want to build pipe line, which will transport gas from Mediterranean to Europe through Greece and so Europe won't need to buy gas from Russia. It will also affect the TurkStream, which will transport gas from Russia to Europe through Turkey. That's why Turkey needs S400 as soon as possible to protect its own gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.

If Russia doesn't want to lose this energy war, They should start to research gas fields in Syrian Exclusive Economic Zone by using its own vessels. Russian pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean might be helpful for Turkey.

JohninMK wrote:

Airman wrote:USA wants to by pass Russian gas by using gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. They want to build pipe line, which will transport gas from Mediterranean to Europe through Greece and so Europe won't need to buy gas from Russia. It will also affect the TurkStream, which will transport gas from Russia to Europe through Turkey. That's why Turkey needs S400 as soon as possible to protect its own gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.

If Russia doesn't want to lose this energy war, They should start to research gas fields in Syrian Exclusive Economic Zone by using its own vessels. Russian pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean might be helpful for Turkey.

There are no significant legal Turkish gas fields in the eastern Med, the Levant field is too far south. Turkey is claiming, on behalf of Norther Cyprus, parts of Southern Cyprus's area.

Whilst the 'defend against possible US/NATO aggression' role of the S-400 is clear, extending it to gas field left protection might be a step too far.

US and Turkey target each other in NATO meeting
Verbal clash during foreign affairs ministerial overshadows report on how alliance should adapt for 2030.

Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo slammed Turkey during a virtual meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Tuesday, accusing Ankara of stoking tensions with fellow allies in the Mediterranean and of giving a gift to the Kremlin by purchasing a Russian-made anti-aircraft system.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu fired back, accusing Pompeo of phoning European allies and urging them to gang up on Turkey, of siding blindly with Greece in regional conflicts, and of refusing to sell Ankara U.S.-made Patriot anti-aircraft weapons.

Çavuşoğlu also accused the U.S. of backing Kurdish “terrorist organizations” in Syria, while Turkey fought the Islamic State, and insisted that the U.S. and France had worsened a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh by backing Armenia in a war that Azerbaijan won with Turkish military support.


The sharp clash over videoconference, confirmed by multiple allied delegations, came as Pompeo was attending what was likely his last NATO foreign affairs ministerial on behalf of President Donald Trump — a meeting that was intended to focus primarily on a new report about how NATO should adapt for the next decade. Some diplomats speculated that Pompeo was using his last meeting to inflame tensions that could make life difficult for the incoming administration of President-elect Joe Biden.

The new report, by an outside group of experts, was commissioned after French President Emmanuel Macron complained last year about conflicts among allies, including Turkey, saying the alliance was experiencing “brain death.” The report urges allies to “pledge themselves to a code of good conduct” and “consider establishing a Centre of Excellence for Democratic Resilience dedicated to providing support to individual allies.”

Several allies backed up Pompeo by speaking out against Turkey, including French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, who denounced Ankara’s behavior and said cohesion within the alliance would be impossible to achieve if Turkey mimicked Russia’s aggressive interventionism.

By the end of the meeting, it was clear that Turkey was virtually isolated among the alliance’s 30 members. A renewed call by Çavuşoğlu for NATO to take a role in Libya’s civil war was rejected by the other allies, who have accused Turkey of exacerbating the conflict by sending weapons and mercenaries to support the Government of National Accord based in Tripoli.

After Çavuşoğlu accused Pompeo and the U.S. of taking a maximalist position in favor of Greece regarding conflicts in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias hit back, saying if the Greek position is maximalist, “so is international law.”

Turkey has been at fierce odds with other allies for years, but has also proven the most militarily assertive NATO member, and particularly adept at achieving its objectives with hard power.


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan interceded not just in Libya, but also in Syria, where he and Russian President Vladimir Putin largely fashioned the outcome that has kept Bashar al-Assad in power. Most dramatically, Turkey helped Azerbaijan achieve victory in its three-decade conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, with Baku reclaiming swaths of territory.

According to NATO diplomats, Çavuşoğlu had a mixed message on Germany, praising Berlin for acting as an “honest broker” in trying to mediate the conflicts in the Mediterranean but also accusing the Germans of “piracy” over an incident in which German naval forces intercepted and boarded a Turkish ship suspected of trafficking weapons. The Germans were acting under an EU-led arms control mission.

At a news conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sidestepped a question about the sharp exchange between Pompeo and Çavuşoğlu, and instead noted that a NATO “deconfliction mechanism” had helped to ease the conflict between Athens and Ankara.

“We have seen that the deconfliction mechanism has helped to reduce the risk of incidents and accidents,” between the Greek and Turkish militaries, Stoltenberg said. But he added, “it is not solving the underlying main problem.”

That, he said, would depend on a German-led mediation effort, and “the political will of Greece and Turkey.”

The United States Sanctions Turkey Under CAATSA 231

Today, the United States is imposing sanctions on the Republic of Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) pursuant to Section 231 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for knowingly engaging in a significant transaction with Rosoboronexport, Russia’s main arms export entity, by procuring the S-400 surface-to-air missile system.  The sanctions include a ban on all U.S. export licenses and authorizations to SSB and an asset freeze and visa restrictions on Dr. Ismail Demir, SSB’s president, and other SSB officers.

The United States made clear to Turkey at the highest levels and on numerous occasions that its purchase of the S-400 system would endanger the security of U.S. military technology and personnel and provide substantial funds to Russia’s defense sector, as well as Russian access to the Turkish armed forces and defense industry.  Turkey nevertheless decided to move ahead with the procurement and testing of the S-400, despite the availability of alternative, NATO-interoperable systems to meet its defense requirements.  This decision resulted in Turkey’s suspension and pending removal from the global F-35 Joint Strike Fighter partnership.

Today’s action sends a clear signal that the United States will fully implement CAATSA Section 231 and will not tolerate significant transactions with Russia’s defense and intelligence sectors.  I also urge Turkey to resolve the S-400 problem immediately in coordination with the United States.  Turkey is a valued Ally and an important regional security partner for the United States, and we seek to continue our decades-long history of productive defense-sector cooperation by removing the obstacle of Turkey’s S-400 possession as soon as possible.

https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/