After much ado about the ultimatum - it's finally official, and in paper.
Below is the official letter sent to the Turkish MoD, from Patrick M. Shanahan, current Secretary of Defense of the United States.
Threats enumerated: 1.
Kicked out of the F-35 program completely (Turkish F-35 pilot students currently in the U.S to be kicked out, Turkey to be denied the purchase of the aircraft, and the manufacturing of parts as part of its supply chain). Didn't Turkey invest millions into this already? ohh boy...2.
CAATSA sanctions (have bipartisan support should Turkey receive the S-400). This might range from blacklisting Turkish defense companies (to kill any export market) to fines (usually in the low billions).3.
"Hinder" Turkish's participation and cooperation within NATO (vague for effect). My guess is more like blacklisted within the organization itself at least. Wonder how that'll leave Incirlik etc. Although Turkey is already sort of blacklisted within NATO.4.
Hinder Turkey's development goals (that wasn't just mentioned for flowery text - a clear threat of economic war - probably target the lira hard). They go on to explicitly state that the purchase of the S-400 will cause the loss of jobs, GDP (contraction), and trade (closed markets).
That's not to mention the shenanigans going on at Turkey's border with the YPG and the full hybrid war toolkit at the U.S disposal. Plus a full pivot towards Greece which has been an ongoing dance for quite some time now. The Greek Defense Minister is the U.S as we report this (timing is not "coincidence"). https://dod.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/Videos/?videoid=687414
Is this a sign of the beginning of a real break up or will the relationship endure?
Is the trouble worth it for Turkey? or is Erdogan rolling the dice? Unsure whether it's worth it and thus "time will tell"?
Will Turkey be the trial run for CAATSA sanctions implementation?
Will the U.S go through with even half of its threats?
Last edited by ATLASCUB on Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:54 pm; edited 3 times in total