The Situation in the Ukraine. #3

flamming_python wrote:Great minds think alike as they say   

True, you are a smart bunch, you two...  

flamming_python wrote:But actually despite posing the same question me and TR1 came to it via completely different reasoning if you look at the posts carefully.

Yes, I deducted as much* but the answer stands to both nevertheless.





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*Yeah, I have my moments too

macedonian wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

macedonian wrote:I can't help but feeling that Russia either:
-Has lost this round; or
-Is playing a losers role on purpose...

But who knows what they have in mind, or what they've been (possibly) threatened with.

I'm feeling a bit angry by this whole situation and the cemented hypocrisy by 'The West'.
F' 'em!

It's not the Crimea, Russia is not playing a hand in this latest episode, or not much one - as it has been saying all along.

So what did it lose?   

It escaped sanctions, and that's good

The agreement is non-enforceable, so it will fail anyway, but now Russia has legitimized its position.

Don't be naive FP.
If anything should happen the west will only blame Russia. Doesn't matter what Russia did or didn't do. You know that by now I should think.
I've said this a hundred times before: "These people NEVER quit". They never give up. Not unless they are met with the only thing that they understand: Brute force. But, perhaps the time is not right for that at the moment. They have a check-box agenda, and they check each box after completion. If not now, perhaps next year, or the year after that...but they'll keep pushing their agenda. Ukraine is a great example of that. After one 'Orange revolution' - they've cooked up another one further down the line...perhaps they didn't anticipate the Crimea move, but perhaps they did.

As for Crimea itself - it's certainly a gem, but not the only important thing in the whole scenario.
If Russia alienates its own people in the South and in the East, it's going to be pretty tough to win them back...it could be done...eventually...but with a great deal of effort. Not to mention that after a long sleep they suddenly chose to awake, and Russia not being there for them and backing them up IN FULL at this point will make them even more (if that's possible) apathetic when the next opportunity arises.
Things are not as clear cut as they seem. I only hope that the heads at the Kremlin making the analysis and the decisions are far, far smarter than mine.

Yeah I know all that macedonian, our difference is not one of strategy, it's one of tactics - I simply think that Russia should attempt to beat the West at its own game.
If Russia can secure the support of many countries in the UN, if it can secure support of the BRICS, Muslim world, South-East Asia, South America and Africa for its diplomacy and stated principles - then it can undermine the West's moral authority and restrict its freedom of movement.

It's already happening, when bombing Libya the West had to go through the work of getting it approved by the UN Security Council, while in Syria - it wasn't able to take action at all, partially because it lost legitimacy among its own population, and partially because its story wasn't been bought by Russia and many other countries either.

Think - diplomatic victory in Sid Mejer's Civilization; not a military one.

Russia shot itself in the foot by seizing the Crimea - because here, it undermined itself.
GarryB and others will argue that Russia needs to act otherwise it will be beaten by the ones that do act; and I can't disagree with that point of view, because it's true too - but the point is to try and avoid such situations, and to keep up the example and precedent that Russia has been trying to set in international diplomacy as of late.

magnumcromagnon wrote:I really don't understand the pessimism from some of the members here, "Russia lost this round?" In what way pray-tell? The fact that business giants varying from technology giant Siemens, to energy giant British Petroleum have stated that sanctions against Russia is totally unacceptable, that's a massive victory right there. The fact that the current Kiev govt. is now considered an enemy of the 2 most militant factions: the pro-Russian forces in the East, and Right Sector in the West, that's a victory in it self. That fact that many Ukrainian soldiers are defecting and refusing orders from Kiev, surrendering and laying down arms is a victory right there. This is a situation that requires a velvet glove (a strategy that's seen lots of success) not a iron fist...if the method is not broken, why fix it?

The pessimism with some people here comes from constant exposure to pro-West media, or by reading too many posts from Russophobes on some forums.

The West has always been the masters in the media and propaganda wars. If you don't understand Russian language and are relying on news outlets like the BBC, CNN, FOX, VICE etc., you stand the danger of getting depressed and feel pessimistic about outcome.

Stay strong rebiat (guys).

I see this as another tactic.

What this is enticing is that both sides will view that any further incursions or actions will be deemed unacceptable, and NATO/US/EU cannot support Kiev without making it look like to the international community and Geneva that they are posturing. If at any time shit hits the fan, EU and US can say whatever they like, but the rest of the world will actually see what they are, and Russia would face no further issues internationally supporting anyone whom is against Kiev. They got what they wanted, Crimea, and is walking away with that. Crimea will end up being a massive tourist destination, energy extraction, and shopping market/housing market and thus will churn in massive profits (as long as Russian gov actually spends their money) and it will jump the GDP growth high.

Russia's biggest issue is not lack of money, but too much money sitting aside doing nothing, hence high interest rates. If they use that money in infrastructure and energy development, and having some control in terms of costs of goods in the area, people will flock to purchase properties (beachfront homes, yum!), the area will end up being Russia's biggest in the future. Already the area is booked for the upcoming vacations, so it will obviously end up as a hotspot for travel. If they can deal with the visa system, I bet many more people will go (especially with rouble value dropped, it will be cheaper to vacation in Crimea.

It is no secret that US/EU will place bases in Ukraine and will decide to push free trade. All Russia has to do is drop the WTO, Tarrif Ukraine up the wazoo, and they will be fine. Now they will have a strategic location too, so they do not have to fear losing the whole area.

All the while, Kiev gov will be under spotlight, so any move they make, could spark a conflict and Russia could get away with anything at this point. If EU and US do not oblige and do what they will, then Russia has full rights to whatever.

If EU still decides to push more sanctions, this whole deal will end up going out the window, as Russia would have nothing else to lose. Sanctions will hurt Russia, but it will hurt EU, if not more. EU relies on selling products to Russia, and Russia relies a large portion of the sale of oil/gas to EU. If they embargo, then EU will be scrambling to find an alternative to the loss energy, costing billions if not more, and many banks in EU will end up losing out on billions that Russia invests in. Not to mention majority of the luxury manufacturers sells big in Russia. They will end up losing out. While Russia has options to import from other countries (even custom union countries whom are not embargoes but share free trade with Russia), and switch to whom they sell and invest to/from. As well, like in Iran, it creates new opportunities for domestic companies to fill the gap from loss of trade outside, making more money internally.

This is all pure speculation on my end, but I think Russia did this purposefully in order to see what the EU/US will do next, and it will give Russia the international upper hand (well, to countries who are not sucking on US/EU teets), to do as they deemed necessary to protect their own country and people.

TR1 wrote:

macedonian wrote:I can't help but feeling that Russia either:
-Has lost this round; or
-Is playing a losers role on purpose...

But who knows what they have in mind, or what they've been (possibly) threatened with.

I'm feeling a bit angry by this whole situation and the cemented hypocrisy by 'The West'.
F' 'em!

What is there to lose?

Russia got Crimea at very little cost.
Eastern Ukraine is a massive complication that I pray Russia makes no attempt to take.

I have to agree here, joining Eastern Ukraine in to Russia would be extremely expensive (we're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of modernization) while at the same time that money could be used to make a fast-rail/maglev network through out Russia that could evolve from not just being a valuable economic asset but a valuable military asset as well. Let's not forget that we don't want to sow mistrust in the CIS countries.

Here's what I suggest...Donetsk, Kharkov, Odessa etc. should secede from Ukraine and form the Republic of Eastern Ukraine which should also include Transnistria, then they should join the Customs Union, that way Russia can maintain it's military technological interests and also have a major say in Eastern Ukraine's daily operations while at the same time saving hundreds of billions of dollars in the process. I'm really hoping the Customs Union becomes what the CIS should have been (perhaps Mongolia could join), and outside of that project Russia should focus of creating a fast-rail/maglev line from Moscow/St. Petersberg to Magadan/Vladivostok, once that's built the development of Russia's east will greatly accelerate.

There were reports of Donetsk airport being captured by the anti-maidan people.
What are the latest news on this.

FP are you still awake?

flamming_python wrote:Yeah I know all that macedonian, our difference is not one of strategy, it's one of tactics - I simply think that Russia should attempt to beat the West at its own game.
If Russia can secure the support of many countries in the UN, if it can secure support of the BRICS, Muslim world, South-East Asia, South America and Africa for its diplomacy and stated principles - then it can undermine the West's moral authority and restrict its freedom of movement.

It's already happening, when bombing Libya the West had to go through the work of getting it approved by the UN Security Council, while in Syria - it wasn't able to take action at all, partially because it lost legitimacy among its own population, and partially because its story wasn't been bought by Russia and many other countries either.

Think - diplomatic victory in Sid Mejer's Civilization; not a military one.

Russia shot itself in the foot by seizing the Crimea - because here, it undermined itself.
GarryB and others will argue that Russia needs to act otherwise it will be beaten by the ones that do act; and I can't disagree with that point of view, because it's true too - but the point is to try and avoid such situations, and to keep up the example and precedent that Russia has been trying to set in international diplomacy as of late.

True, we differ in tactics.
I disagree with beating the west in its own game. Not possible as things stand at the moment.
You can't beat someone that has all the means at his disposal (i.e. has the upper hand at something) and is indeed drawing you to play in the same scenario he himself has set-up, by playing his game. No, you have to adjust your tactics accordingly.

Think about this: a few months ago, the west (especially France) was embarrassed by the Evo Morales plain incident. Even Hollande was outraged...well, understandably since both he himself and the French nation were humiliated by the event. Where is France now? It stands in the front-line with the US, asking for more sanctions against Russia. Weren't the Germans enraged about Merkel's phone being monitored by the Americans? Where's Merkel now? Deciding how to please America without doing too much damage to Germany.

You can't count on other nations, since their politicians are well bought and paid for.
Do you think that any sane person would justify what America does around the world? Especially since many of them have seen it firsthand, BEING DONE TO THEM?! I honestly don't think so. No, Russia needs different tactics. It has to do what the west does, but on a different front. It has to speak to the populace directly. Set-up something similar to the American NGOs. Think out of the box, be creative. Don't just follow the narrative, be different. You can't beat them at their own game, it never works. They make up the rules at that game, they are both players and referees...that's why they can afford to play the game the way they do...because the game is rigged, and you never win at their game. They are the Casino, and...well: The House ALWAYS wins!

And FFS, Russia needs to play the intelligence game much better. It's unbelievable to me that Russia couldn't infiltrate the 'Right Sector' or 'Udar'?!
I mean - it's not in effin' Botswana, it's right there, next to Russia. They should've known about this Kiev scenario beforehand, and should've acted accordingly...
Unless, that is, they're doing so at the moment???  

In other news Radio Free Europe suspended a blogger for having pro-Putin, pro-Russia views on Crimea, they show their true colors at last lol   ...RFE is always lecturing Russia about human rights and freedom only to censor one of their own and violate babitsky's free speech. You cant make this crap up lol:

"Radio" Liberty "Babitsky dismissed for supporting Russia

American journalist, radio "Freedom" with 25 years of experience Babitsky still called the opposition "gold pen" suspended from work for a post in a personal blog, in which he dared to support the position of Russia and Vladimir Putin. "I do not mean Crimea - in this issue, I totally agree with the basic thesis of Vladimir Putin that Russia had the absolute right to take the population of the peninsula under the protection of" - he wrote, urging respect for minority rights and by placing an entry in his personal blog site "Echo Caucasus ", part of the" Radio "Liberty."

After this post was immediately removed from the site, and the suspended Babicki headquarters "Freedom" from work without pay, but with the possibility of reinstatement after a month. Russian media, as well as many foreign journalists called the incident "censorship" and outright "propaganda only true opinion", conducted by the American holding company - under the authority of the federal agency "Broadcasting Board of Governors."

Moreover, many opposition members recall that when MGIMO for expressing positions without corresponding position uriversiteta was fired (and later reinstated) Professor Andrei Zubov, media activists and dissenters called it "a monstrous belch totalitarianism," but "radio" Svoboda "broke all records.

However, outright censorship and fierce, vigorous propaganda campaign led by the United States against Russia are nothing new. And it's not about the scandalous mediaataki wartime 2008. Recently, for example, the media caught the American media company is on a straight line censorship Vladimir Putin (for example, turn off the broadcast agency AP straight line after the issue of the U.S.), then cut all positive about the Russian translation of the opening ceremony of the 2014 Olympics in Sochi. Moreover, the "freedom" as openly propagandistic project and wrote themselves former employees holding.

And it's not just about "Freedom" - for example, at one time said Politonline.ru , chief editor of "Russian Newsweek" Kirill Vishnepolsky acknowledged that "we had an internal reviewer, Western man, bilingual, which for Americans read every room Russian" Newsweek. "Every week I got the same report that American publishers. And, of course, in each report by zhuril us for too narrow an approach to politics, pointed to the fact that we have not uncovered the" bloody "current mode" and talked about raznolgasiyah when the magazine "dared" to claim that U.S. policy is not 100% perfect and refused to die with respect to the Russian Federation.

http://www.politonline.ru/rssArticle/21194332.html

LOL Barack "Smarmy Asshole" Obama talking tough, "AMERIKA STRONGK!!!1!"

Very Interesting radio interview with the Genius Historian human living encyclopedia..  Webster Griffin Tarpley
about Ukraine origins..and more things..

http://tarpley.net/why-the-kiev-regime-is-disintegrating/

His website albeit very slow on media ,is very good in covering major conflicts on his weekly interviews


About the obama video.. is kind of funny ,how the interviewer seemed more like the one leading the hostile tone of the interview.
Like putting Obama into a wall to say something thought against Russia. LOL  Looks like a neocon planned interview trap.

Vann7 wrote:Very Interesting radio interview with the Genius Historian human living encyclopedia..  Webster Griffin Tarpley
about Ukraine origins..and more things..

http://tarpley.net/why-the-kiev-regime-is-disintegrating/

His website albeit very slow on media ,is very good in covering major conflicts on his weekly interviews


About the obama video.. is kind of funny ,how the interviewer seemed more like the one leading the hostile tone of the interview.
Like putting Obama into a wall to say something thought against Russia. LOL  Looks like a neocon planned interview trap.

Thanks btw, Obama obviously doesn't know that Russian's have some of the greatest military history the world has ever known! If he knew better he wouldn't dismiss the Russian conventional military power.

Some feather's in Russian military caps:

1.) Defeated the Ottoman empire in Crimea, and eventually destroying it in WW1.

2.) The defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte in the Napoleonic wars, and defeated the French in Crimea.

3.) Defeated the central German powers of WW1.

4.) Defeated the Fascist war machine in WW2.

5.) Defeated the British Empire in Crimea and via proxy in Ethiopia.

6.) Defeated the United States via proxy in the Korean War, and the Vietnam War.

...Barack "Clown Shoes" Obama is theoretically an academic and a scholar, he should start acting like one and brush up on his history!

TheArmenian wrote:There were reports of Donetsk airport being captured by the anti-maidan people.
What are the latest news on this.

FP are you still awake?

Barely **yawn**

Dunno, last I heard it was being captured by protestors led by Berkut members; I mentioned it a few posts back.

magnumcromagnon wrote:In other news Radio Free Europe suspended a blogger for having pro-Putin, pro-Russia views on Crimea, they show their true colors at last lol   ...RFE is always lecturing Russia about human rights and freedom only to censor one of their own and violate babitsky's free speech. You cant make this crap up lol:

"Radio" Liberty "Babitsky dismissed for supporting Russia

American journalist, radio "Freedom" with 25 years of experience Babitsky still called the opposition "gold pen" suspended from work for a post in a personal blog, in which he dared to support the position of Russia and Vladimir Putin. "I do not mean Crimea - in this issue, I totally agree with the basic thesis of Vladimir Putin that Russia had the absolute right to take the population of the peninsula under the protection of" - he wrote, urging respect for minority rights and by placing an entry in his personal blog site "Echo Caucasus ", part of the" Radio "Liberty."

After this post was immediately removed from the site, and the suspended Babicki headquarters "Freedom" from work without pay, but with the possibility of reinstatement after a month. Russian media, as well as many foreign journalists called the incident "censorship" and outright "propaganda only true opinion", conducted by the American holding company - under the authority of the federal agency "Broadcasting Board of Governors."

Moreover, many opposition members recall that when MGIMO for expressing positions without corresponding position uriversiteta was fired (and later reinstated) Professor Andrei Zubov, media activists and dissenters called it "a monstrous belch totalitarianism," but "radio" Svoboda "broke all records.

However, outright censorship and fierce, vigorous propaganda campaign led by the United States against Russia are nothing new. And it's not about the scandalous mediaataki wartime 2008. Recently, for example, the media caught the American media company is on a straight line censorship Vladimir Putin (for example, turn off the broadcast agency AP straight line after the issue of the U.S.), then cut all positive about the Russian translation of the opening ceremony of the 2014 Olympics in Sochi. Moreover, the "freedom" as openly propagandistic project and wrote themselves former employees holding.

And it's not just about "Freedom" - for example, at one time said Politonline.ru , chief editor of "Russian Newsweek" Kirill Vishnepolsky acknowledged that "we had an internal reviewer, Western man, bilingual, which for Americans read every room Russian" Newsweek. "Every week I got the same report that American publishers. And, of course, in each report by zhuril us for too narrow an approach to politics, pointed to the fact that we have not uncovered the" bloody "current mode" and talked about raznolgasiyah when the magazine "dared" to claim that U.S. policy is not 100% perfect and refused to die with respect to the Russian Federation.

http://www.politonline.ru/rssArticle/21194332.html

That blogger with 'pro-Russian views' seems to be none other than Andrej Babitsky. He was pretty (in)famous back in the day, for being embedded with Chechen rebels and apologizing for rebel atrocities and executions;
"One must say that the Chechens cut throats of soldiers not because they are sadists inclined to treat them with brutality, but in order to make the war more convex, visible, vivid, to reach the public and to explain that a war is actually going on, scary and cruel."

Well I think that with such a friend, who needs enemies. But if even he's sympathizing with Russia's position, well then America has quite a battle on his hands.

Aparently the anti-maidan protesters are burning buildings in Kharkiv

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8STXJG2mtAs

The channel seems to be updated with Ukraine videos.. so it could be recent..
If that fire is true.. looks like there are bandits trying to destroy the image of the Pro Russian Protesters..
The DOnetsk new administration needs to have more control over their people or western media will have a
Field day demonizing the Pro Russian protesters as bandits and terrorist.. even if they defended that kind of behaviour before.

Journalists suspect US State Secretary Kerry in quoting Internet fakes

The US Secretary of State John Kerry harshly criticized the anti-Semitism in Ukraine. In his speech he spoke about the leaflets "in one of the cities" in which the Jews demanded to declare themselves. These leaflets have recently appeared in the Donetsk region. The man who has allegedly signed the leaflets said RT that they are fake.

The statement of the Secretary of State

Speaking on the results of the four-party talks in Geneva, John Kerry told the reporters about anti-Semitism in Ukraine and gave the example of a situation that allegedly occurred in one of the towns.
"During the past couple of days Jews in one of the cities were sent letters that they should declare themselves as Jews. The letter also contained threats, " said Kerry.
"By 2014, after all the lessons that history has presented to us, it is not just unacceptable, it is - absurd. This is - beyond acceptability. ... People involved in this kind of activity on both sides need to understand that there is no place for this", said Kerry.

Interpretation of the journalists

BBC Moscow bureau chief Kevin Bishop has immediately responded to the statement by the Secretary of State. In his microblog, he wrote that it is a document from Donetsk, whose photograph appeared on the Internet a few days ago. "Here is the paper, which cited John Kerry - an appeal to the Jews of Donetsk register ", - said the journalist.
BBC micro blog, which nearly 10 million people are signed for, cited Kerry's statement.

"Fake and not a good one"

The document, which Bishop posted, really calls for Jews to register before May 3, 2014 in some kind of "Commissioner for Nationalities." This letter was allegedly distributed in Donetsk in the last few days. The letter is signed by "people's governor," Dennis Pushilin.
"In fact, there are similar letters not only to the Jews, but also to entrepreneurs, foreign students and other citizens of certain occupations. In fact it was a fake, and quite an unfortunate one.
There is a signature of the "people's governor."
Firstly, no one has elected the people's governer. Secondly, the seal there belongs to the former Mayor. Everything is done through photoshop, " said in an interview to RT Pushilin. He categorically denied the authenticity of the letter.

Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_18/Journalists-suspect-US-State-Secretary-Kerry-in-quoting-Internet-fakes-6039/

There is a saying in the west TR-1... I am sure you are familiar with it.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

In other words if Russia could take possession of the crimea without spilling any blood and with the agreement of the population of Crimea they would be the dumbest SOBs on the planet to refuse.

It is not about accumulating land or land grabbing... it is about the return of land unlawfully seized and then leased back.

Russia would be wrong to allow Crimea to rejoin the Russian Federation ONLY if everything the west said was true... ie Putin annexed Crimea.

If Putin could really do that what is he waiting for?

Why not Annex all of the Ukraine and the Stans and the Baltic republics and Belarus, and Finland and Poland... and hell why not the rest of Europe?

because the idea he wants to take over Europe is Bollocks... the idea he wants to take Crimea by force is bollocks.

Crimea joined Russia... Russia did not and could not "take" Crimea by force... the act of trying to do so would likely make it all impossible.

Ukraine or Russia had to fall to pieces to make the decision obvious and it was the Ukraine that blew it.

What exactly was it that Russia did wrong... what are you expecting to happen... do you think the west wont like Russia now?

The west is a huge clump of very different countries... the ones that hate Russia will likely always hate Russia this wont change anything at all.

John Kerry is a jew himself, West and Jews (political acting jews) like Nuland don't give a damn about Pravy Sector or Neo-Nazis or whatever they just interfer with Russian geopolitical buisness to hurt russia no matter for what price and morals, well the West has no morals it has proven it dozen of times.

Ex-IDF forces fought among Banderas and were shooting Berkut police forces, Banderas along with unidentified forces have beheaded captured policemen on open streets and all this talk of "Anti-semitism, Terrorists, separatism is just a political witchhunt and hatespeech to manipulate the western world, they don't give a damn what the rest of the world thinks, they only need to manipulate their own people.

Same story of anti-muslim/arab hatespeeches since 9/11 were leaded and opinion making by MSM that muslims and arabs are just a violent so that the western world has a much lower inhibitions to see muslims/arabs getting killed daily like it is today with the terrorist drone attacks. The russophobic opinion-making has never ended it is always there and is reinforced today. This is just a decadent empire falling and trying to poison as much as possible on the way down.

That flyer about Jews needing to 'register' in Ukraine is fake

A flyer demanding that Jews in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk register with its pro-Russian government is “fake,” a Jewish advocacy group with direct contacts in the region tells the Daily Dot.

“It’s a fake flyer,” says Lesley Weiss, deputy director of the National Conference Supporting Jews (NCSJ), which focuses its efforts on Russia, Ukraine, and the Baltic States.

First reported Thursday by Israeli news organization Ynet and republished by USA Today, the flyers do exist, according to Weiss. But they carry no authority and were not sanctioned by the city’s temporary government.

“It’s not true that they have to register or be deported,” says Weiss. NCSJ officials spoke directly to Jewish leadership in Donetsk, who said that Denis Pushilin, chairman of the pro-Russian Donetsk People’s Government, denied creating the pamphlets, which carry his name.

Instead, Weiss says, the flyers were distributed simply to “cause anxiety” among the city’s Jewish population. In an online announcement about the fliers, NCSJ said similar fliers were recently handed out to students at a nearby university.

Members of the Jewish community in Donetsk are “saying it’s a provocation,” Weiss says, “but we don’t know exactly from whom.”

While the flyer may not carry any official authority, Weiss says its distribution still has a detrimental effect on Donetsk's Jewish community as it reflects tactics "used by the Nazis."

"You can image the anxiety it's causing," she said.

News of the fliers launched to the upper echelons of the U.S. government on Thursday, as Secretary of State John Kerry called the pamphlets “grotesque.”

In an interview with CNN, U.S. Ambassador to the Ukraine Geoffrey R. Pyatt said the flyers were the “real deal” and called the documents “chilling.”

Weiss says that her office is “in contact” with the U.S. ambassador and that his statements agree with what the NCSJ learned from Jewish leaders. The “real deal” comment, she says, was likely a mere acknowledgement that the fliers do exist, not that they carry any authority imposed by the Donetsk People’s Government.

“We’re in touch with [Pyatt]. He’s saying the flyers were real—the flyers exist,” Weiss says. “But from our sources, they seem to be faked just to cause anxiety.”

Updated with additional comments from Weiss for further context. | Correction: Weiss says that NCSJ did not speak directly to Pushilin, but instead spoke with a local Jewish leader who said the separatist denied creating the leaflets.

http://www.dailydot.com/politics/ukraine-jewish-registry-fake/

magnumcromagnon wrote:"Russia got Crimea at very little cost.
Eastern Ukraine is a massive complication that I pray Russia makes no attempt to take."
Joining E. Ukraine to Russia would be extremely expensive (hundreds of billions of dollars of modernization)
Here's what I suggest...Donetsk, Kharkov, Odessa etc. should secede from Ukraine and form the Republic of Eastern Ukraine which should also include Transnistria, then they should join the Customs Union, that way Russia can maintain it's military technological interests and also have a major say in Eastern Ukraine's daily operations while at the same time saving hundreds of billions of dollars in the process.

Agreed, the binary option of "stay with Kiev" or "join Russia" is silly.
Novo Rossiya immediately joining Russia, meaning immediately bringing public employee salaries up to Russian levels along with a host of other measures, BEFORE achieving new efficiency gains, etc, is just a huge waste. Some EVENTUAL accession to Russia (or more likely, unitary state also with Belorussia) might happen in future, but doing so immediately is throwing money away and throwing away advantage of lower cost structure in Ukraine. The industry there in fact depends on that lower cost structure, so immediately jacking up costs will just hit the industry there... or require more subsidation. Better to not jack up the cost structure immediately, but spend a fraction of that amount on productive investment into the region, raising efficiency, and enabling it to NATURALLY achieve Russian income levels.

That is all a 2nd rate option for Russia, first being maintaining within a federalized Ukraine ensured of military neutrality, and with full compatability with Eurasian Union, at least for Novo Russia portion.

Ultimately, I don't think Russia should be overly worried about a hostile Galicia-Kiev state. It is unlikely to be accepted into NATO anyways, what with German and other opposition (Germany just turned down Montenegrin accession to NATO).

I am just concerned at Russia's negotiating position ceding any legitimacy to the junta and their illegal armed groups like National Guard.

Well, seems I was right.
The west used the Geneva 'peace deal' only to make further gains militarily:

RT wrote:Kiev: Military operation in Ukraine southeast to go on despite Geneva agreement

RT wrote:Despite calls for a peaceful dialogue in the document on Ukraine adopted in Geneva, the coup-imposed Ukrainian Foreign Minister said it will not affect the “anti-terrorist” operation in the East of the country and the troops will remain there.

Soon after the Geneva document, adopted at a four-side meeting between Ukraine, the US, the EU and Russia, was published, Ukraine’s acting Foreign Minister Andrey Deshchytsa said Kiev is not bound by its recommendations.

According to Deshchytsa cited by RIA Novosti, “the troops in the East of the country are carrying out a special operation and can remain where they are.”

This comes despite the statement issued by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry following the meeting, which says:

“All sides have pledged to refrain from any form of violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The participants of the meeting strongly condemned and rejected all forms of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including manifestations of anti-Semitism.”

RT.com

God, it makes me angry!
It's Syria all over again. I HOPE the Kremlin ANTICIPATED what's going to happen.
If I did, certainly they would too.

Supposedly there is already 1 death of the resistance https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/457041212491325440
So I am not really worried about the agreement, if the junta already broke it, it is void.  
Russia now looks like it played along like a good boy, meanwhile another EU-brokered agreement is torn up by the junta.  

https://vk.com/video_ext.php?oid=138619694&id=168509760&hash=0dd29ca65fd719ac&hd=1"%D0%9B%D1%8E%D0%B4%D0%B8

Right sector killing civilians in their homes, cutting their throats because they are either russian or not hardcore anti-russian.