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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:55 pm

    bandit6 wrote:It would be a good thing if some people here would sometimes take a look at pro-ukraine telegram channels to see that there are massive casualties on both sides. No way Russia can also maintain that high rate of manpower loss, somethings gotta give.

    Ukraine in EU and NATO will eventually happen, might as well sue for peace now.

    I remember GATO labelling someone Comical Ali in Iraq.
    They should label you Comical Nazi.

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    Post  Lapain Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:03 pm

    bandit6 wrote:It would be a good thing if some people here would sometimes take a look at pro-ukraine telegram channels to see that there are massive casualties on both sides. No way Russia can also maintain that high rate of manpower loss, somethings gotta give.

    Ukraine in EU and NATO will eventually happen, might as well sue for peace now.

    While the Nazi TG might showcase high dramatized spectacular booms, they are far from being a complete picture.
    Reality is more like the Russians inflicting the brunt of the casualties to the enemy with artillery but without TV cameras turned on site.

    The Mediazona graph on the meantime, hasn't bulged that much since Bakhmut. Sure, Russia could display better effort at avoiding unecessary casualties by more decisive strikes, but it sure can sustain current trend for at least mid-2025.


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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Tue Nov 28, 2023 7:20 pm

    Lapain wrote:Sure, Russia could display better effort at avoiding unecessary casualties by more decisive strikes, but it sure can sustain current trend for at least mid-2025.

    If you combine those charts with dates and events, you will clearly see that they are doing quite fine in that.
    The lowest ratios are observable when the mighty peremoga offensives were ongoing, both in the Summer of 22 and now.
    It matches perfectly well the Russian strategy when they let the Ukrs bleed white for no gains while restricting their own casualties as much as possible.
    I would call it funny to watch how the nafo impotents are masturbating each other using short hands to prove otherwise, yet something grounded with human misery and death can't be funny.

    By the way, and regarding something revealed yesterday ...

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51 - Page 4 Zrzut151

    This is T-72AMT John showed yesterday from X comments about "parade painting".
    I haven't noticed that first ... but is it only me, or this tank has no ERA, only added panels and rubber skirts pretending so?!?

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    Post  Mir Tue Nov 28, 2023 8:37 pm

    Clearly a propaganda machine not going anywhere near the battlefield. Laughing

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Tue Nov 28, 2023 8:41 pm

    They will make commercials with it scratch ? Laughing
    Anyway, it is one more hint that they are low on ERA stocks, especially heavy one.
    If they are forced to masquerade a tank using paint and rubber ...

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:01 pm

    bandit6 wrote:It would be a good thing if some people here would sometimes take a look at pro-ukraine telegram channels to see that there are massive casualties on both sides. No way Russia can also maintain that high rate of manpower loss, somethings gotta give.

    Ukraine in EU and NATO will eventually happen, might as well sue for peace now.

    I am not pro-russian or Ukie so let me say this.

    The russians are taking losses sure but they are killing more than they are losing, combine this with the fact they have a much larger population and well who can sustain what now?

    As for NATO if the russians are dumb enough to let Ukraine into it after all this, they deserve what they get.

    But I don't see the russians allowing this, this is one of the main reasons they went in it. I don't see Ukraine joining NATO ever, unless the russians massively **** up.

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    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:22 pm

    Last 16 employees at Avdiyivka coke plant left in early November, so the plant is dead. Once the furnaces go out they cannot be restarted. They also provided heating for the city, so no heat now.

    VOA article from 2015 with a video of the plant says that all 1,700 employees of the plant were living underground for protection from shelling:

    https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-coking-plant-caught-crossfire/2821100.html

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:49 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Last 16 employees at Avdiyivka coke plant left in early November, so the plant is dead. Once the furnaces go out they cannot be restarted. They also provided heating for the city, so no heat now.

    VOA article from 2015 with a video of the plant says that all 1,700 employees of the plant were living underground for protection from shelling:

    https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-coking-plant-caught-crossfire/2821100.html

    Just to understand, what does it mean that the furnace cannot be restarted?


    It was already partially damaged when the ukrainian army retook adeevka from the Donbass rebels in summer 2014 and production stopped for a while before restarting but at a lower production rate.

    Does it mean that in order to have it active again they need basically to dismantle it and build it from scratch?

    The plant is currently owned by the firm Metinvest. Metinvest is in turn owned by the Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.

    From Wikipedia

    The plant was constructed in 1963 by the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic to fulfil the coke needs of the nearby Mariupol Steel Works as well as the availability of coal from local mines. Originally opening with 1 coke battery, this expanded to nine by 1980 with investment from the Soviet Union. By 1988, 100 million tons of coke had been produced making it a major coke producer in Europe. In 1993 as Ukraine gained independence, the plant was privatised as the Open Joint Stock Company 'Avdeevskiy Coke-processing Works'

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:11 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

    Does it mean that in order to have it active again they need basically to dismantle it and build it from scratch?


    A tricky question.
    The whole thing is being called "coke oven battery" in English. You can check it using the phrase.
    Coke plant is based on a giant industrial-grade furnace made of ceramic.
    In technological process, such kind of furnace is activated once and operates for decades.
    Some of the start up processes are a combination of dismantling temporary build technological access points, heaters/burners, mounting locks and doors ... It is complicated as hell, and can take even a whole month until the furnace will heat up to the process temperatures.

    If the furnace does not operate, there is no way to determine its physical condition. The whole installation lost pressure, while it is build into the furnace itself. You can't get an access to part of valves and pipes without partially dismantling the whole installation.
    And if you start, there is no way you will know what you will find in the process.
    So yes, I guess that erasing it and building a new one, with modern burners and gas system is easier and less expensive option ...

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    Post  Hole Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:43 pm

    Trying to the end...
    That´s why Russia should rather turn Lviv into a depopulated wasteland instead of letting it turn into an "independent" rump Ukraine.
    If a single village in western Banderaland would join NATO/EU the West would claim victory.

    The Mediazona graph
    Had the Chinese done the same back in the time of the Iraq war, "counting" british KIA´s, I doubt that someone in the west had
    believed the numbers.

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Nov 28, 2023 11:13 pm

    Hole wrote:
    That´s why Russia should rather turn Lviv into a depopulated wasteland instead of letting it turn into an "independent" rump Ukraine.
    If a single village in western Banderaland would join NATO/EU the West would claim victory.

    Russkie presented an extreme pragmatism with this conflict. I am seriously impressed, as didn't expect them to be so much cynical.
    Only by extrapolation, I would say they give a round shit about that.
    In the final form, 404 will be a wasteland anyway. There is nothing in the western part of it that can sustain any kind of dreams of power.
    There is no farming, no industry, no resources, but last but not least - there will be no people.
    It will represent a shithole populated by some 8 mln people, where Bulgaria can be called a superpower in contrast.

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    Post  Firebird Tue Nov 28, 2023 11:44 pm

    The South West provides a mountainous defence for Russia. Whereas the interior is more steppe and hard to defend.

    The Fascist scum must pay their debt to civilised society so they if they haven't run like rats already, they must be forced into public works schemes, just like the previous Nazis did.

    Many Ukrainians will have been intimidated into silence. They are effectively Russian or a fraternal people with the Russians. They cannot be stolen by NATO/WEF/Washington etc.

    The West Pukraine can also provide a military advanced point for Russian radars, missiles and air defences etc. It can also provide a link to a hopefully friendly Hungary which leads onto Serbia.

    Once the Eastern Pukraine collapses, the Western Pukraine will be relatively easy. So you wonder... should Russia have just gone West to begin with?

    Anyway, lots of reasons why the Western Pukraine could be useful to Russia.
    America took over W Germany and Japan and they aren't at all hard to manage... even pillage by America. Whereas sensible "non Russian" Ukrainians would welcome being part of the Eurasian Union.

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    Post  kvs Wed Nov 29, 2023 1:07 am

    Larry Johnson claims Russian KIA of 70-100 thousand. At the same time you never hear anything about Ukr losses over 400,000.
    I do not know where he gets his numbers from. Looks to me like it is just a doubling of the Mediazona estimate with extra fluff
    thrown in. You can bet your last centavo that the Mediazona figures are high end and not low end. The ratio of 1:4 does not make
    any sense. Either the losses are comparable because of similar management and resources or they are very different. Russia has
    been deliberately saving its men by not wasting resources on fast and sweeping territorial gains. You can see in Avdeevka a drawn
    out process reflecting the Russian tactics of reducing casualties. By contrast the Kiev regime has been engaged in de facto human
    wave attacks. When they can't use heavy armour, they send soldiers on foot in batches as if that is some sort of superior tactic.
    This is not a guerilla war where small armed groups have effectiveness. This is a conventional war front. It is a turkey shoot
    and not a stalemate.

    People are pathologically fixated on the movement of the front. They think if it is not sweeping dozens of kilometers every day, then
    it must be a balance of forces feature. Not in this case, clowns. It is a deliberate choice of the Russian command. Set up a
    line with plenty of fortifications for peace of mind and have the enemy throw itself like waves on a rocky shore. This tactic is
    also geopolitical in nature and a NATzO engagement tactic. The imagery of land grabbing is attenuated and NATzO spends itself
    into shortages. People wonder why Putin did not act in 2014. Maybe being able to beat NATzO military supply chains was one of the
    key reasons. The Russian military production is not a minor effort. Even if military plants were not demolished in the 1990s, they
    still needed investment and especially the trained manpower. There is no draft for retired and dead workers.

    The utter lack of appreciation for Russian military industrial capacity is why you have endless yammering about North Korean artillery
    shells. Russia couldn't possibly make its own. The only reason Russia has any deals with North Korea is to pound in the last nail
    in NATzO's coffin of delusion. Russia can make more than enough itself but if NATzO tries to go on a total war footing, then Russia can
    get even more. Given the time scales involved for NATzO to ramp up production, the North Korean deal has no relevance for the
    Ukrian war. It is a long term plan to deal with a potential NATzO attack.

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    Post  nomadski Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:09 am





    IF ( A ) Russia military production high , economy good , Cauldron Meat- Grinder tactic working , NATO production low and economy in trouble THEN ( B ) Attrition tactic works , No capture of resources , static frontlines with no hurry , Destroy all military related infrastructure . If NOT ( A ) THEN NOT ( B ) . Particularly the " Destroy all military infrastructure . " Military related infrastructure : Bridges , Power , Rail , Road , Airfield , Communication , TV , Radio , Internet , Industry , Warship , Tunnels , Military and political apparatus and leadership .

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    Post  Hole Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:18 am

    It will represent a shithole populated by some 8 mln people
    Still too much.

    Russia couldn't possibly make its own.
    Even western MSM had to admit lately that Russia is producing 20.000 rounds a day.
    Propably the lower end of the real numbers. Someone (a source of Mercouris) claimed
    that the production is now well over 1 Million rounds a month.

    The ratio of 1:4 does not make any sense.
    20:1 in favor of Russia is not even close to the reality.
    Maybe at the frontlines in direct engagements, but even in the tactical rear the superiority
    of the russian side in all means of destruction is overwhelming. The advantage gets bigger
    and bigger the further away from the front you get.

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    Post  Belisarius Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:47 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51 - Page 4 Img_2382

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    Post  mnztr Wed Nov 29, 2023 3:48 am

    This ammo shortage is very reminiscent of the collapse of the German eastern front. First a stall, then very tight ammo supplies. Then a fighting retreat, gradually deteriorating into a rout.

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    Post  Isos Wed Nov 29, 2023 3:57 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    Lapain wrote:Sure, Russia could display better effort at avoiding unecessary casualties by more decisive strikes, but it sure can sustain current trend for at least mid-2025.

    If you combine those charts with dates and events, you will clearly see that they are doing quite fine in that.
    The lowest ratios are observable when the mighty peremoga offensives were ongoing, both in the Summer of 22 and now.
    It matches perfectly well the Russian strategy when they let the Ukrs bleed white for no gains while restricting their own casualties as much as possible.
    I would call it funny to watch how the nafo impotents are masturbating each other using short hands to prove otherwise, yet something grounded with human misery and death can't be funny.

    By the way, and regarding something revealed yesterday ...

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51 - Page 4 Zrzut151

    This is T-72AMT John showed yesterday from X comments about "parade painting".
    I haven't noticed that first ... but is it only me, or this tank has no ERA, only added panels and rubber skirts pretending so?!?

    Don't you see the inverted antechrist cross ?

    They have their own active protection. At least they think they have.

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    Post  ALAMO Wed Nov 29, 2023 4:10 am

    🤣can be the case 🤣

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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Wed Nov 29, 2023 5:56 am

    mnztr wrote:This ammo shortage is very reminiscent of the collapse of the German eastern front. First a stall, then very tight ammo supplies. Then a fighting retreat,  gradually deteriorating into a rout.




    Disrupting the transportation lines is very important:


    http://michalw.narod.ru/index-ZiemiKieleckiej.html

    http://michalw.narod.ru/index-GL.html


    Russians have done surprisingly little in this regard.


    There are some Americans who want the money designated to be given to Ukraine, be instead used to help secure the land borders of the U.S.A.


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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Wed Nov 29, 2023 6:14 am

    Geraniums are in the air again. thumbsup russia

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    Post  Hole Wed Nov 29, 2023 6:57 am

    2 or 3 mortar rounds a day
    Is that a joke? There are teens in the US firing more mortar rounds a day. lol1

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51 - Page 4 53425810
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51 - Page 4 57877810
    BTR-82AT with all extras.

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    Post  franco Wed Nov 29, 2023 7:00 am

    At least 15 people died as a result of chemical weapons poisoning of food by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This was stated by the head of the RKhBZ troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov , RIA Novosti reports .

    “During a special military operation, 17 cases of the use of chemical weapons components by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to poison food products were recorded, which caused the death of at least 15 people,” Kirillov said, speaking at the session of the III Congress of Young Scientists.

    The general clarified that the discovered chemical weapons components are “produced in only one country,” without specifying its name. According to him, we are talking about a very expensive substance.

    On November 27, it was reported that Russia had received evidence of the transfer of chemicals from the United States to Ukraine . Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Kirill Lysogorsky said that dangerous substances are transferred to soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as to foreigners fighting on their side.

    Prior to this, adviser to the head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Yan Gagin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were using chemical weapons in the Artemovsk and Donetsk directions.

    Earlier, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev assessed the risks of Ukraine losing control over biological objects.

    https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog/army/news/2023/11/28/21809293.shtml?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

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    Post  jon_deluxe Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:11 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    Russkie presented an extreme pragmatism with this conflict. I am seriously impressed, as didn't expect them to be so much cynical.
    Only by extrapolation, I would say they give a round shit about that.
    In the final form, 404 will be a wasteland anyway. There is nothing in the western part of it that can sustain any kind of dreams of power.
    There is no farming, no industry, no resources, but last but not least - there will be no people.
    It will represent a shithole populated by some 8 mln people, where Bulgaria can be called a superpower in contrast.

    Ironically, the only future Ukraine could have is with Russia. The West has shown they don't give a shit about Ukraine and that they'd gladly sacrifice every single Ukrainian man, woman and child to exhaust Russian resources just a tiny bit. The only country who could be interested in rebuilding the wasteland formerly known as Ukraine after the war is over is Russia, just like they are revitalising the areas newly integrated into the Russian Federation.

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    Post  Big_Gazza Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:22 am

    kvs wrote:The utter lack of appreciation for Russian military industrial capacity is why you have endless yammering about North Korean artillery
    shells.   Russia couldn't possibly make its own.   The only reason Russia has any deals with North Korea is to pound in the last nail
    in NATzO's coffin of delusion.  

    Part of the reason, probably the main one, for the rapprochment Russia and the DPRK is geopolitics. Russia doesn't really need arty shells, but she does want to stick a finger into the eye of the neocons and their feckless satraps. NK will be glad to engage in some export sales and work towards getting the murkan monkey off its back. Rekindling old (and long neglected) ties with past allies is something that Russia needs to do more of, and peeling back the sanctions and economic isolation of an old ally that the arrogant West has long thought of as isolated and irrelevent will not go down well within the Washington beltway or the hallowed halls of Thinktankistan. Let those feckless bastards choke on their angst... Twisted Evil

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