Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

jhelb wrote:Everything said and done, Kremlin will have to Balkanize the US. Else this war will continue until the US can get Russia involved in another major war.

Kremlin won't have to lift a finger. This country will balkanize itself within the next 20 to 30 years.

Arrow wrote:

Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

I doubt that.  The superpower status is being eroded in Ukraine, Africa, central Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and is very much based on legacy.  The American middle class is in decline, the debt is staggering, and while a nuclear arsenal is dangerous, it does not necessarily preclude a collapse and balkanization.  Really, the nation has a feel of the USSR in the late 70s.  The economy is stagnating.  There are all sorts of consumer shortages and price increases.  Our young are taught to value the color of their skin and their ethnicity over their country.  The melting pot (the American analogy to the new Soviet Man) is being replaced by the salad bowl and hyphenization.  Until the 90s one was American.  They may have been Black, White, Latino, but they were American.  Now its I am a Euro-American, Asian-American, Native-American, Latino-American, African-American.  Then you have political extremism.  Then there's a government that cannot function (my God, its one thing and wrong for bureaucrats to not get paid when the government can''t pass a budget, but its quite another when the army doesn't get paid).

So yeah, Balkanization within 20 to 30 years.  Collapse of the state and fragmentation? 40 to 50

littlerabbit wrote:

ucmvulcan wrote:

Arrow wrote:

Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

I doubt that.  The superpower status is being eroded in Ukraine, Africa, central Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and is very much based on legacy.  The American middle class is in decline, the debt is staggering, and while a nuclear arsenal is dangerous, it does not necessarily preclude a collapse and balkanization.  Really, the nation has a feel of the USSR in the late 70s.  The economy is stagnating.  There are all sorts of consumer shortages and price increases.  Our young are taught to value the color of their skin and their ethnicity over their country.  The melting pot (the American analogy to the new Soviet Man) is being replaced by the salad bowl and hyphenization.  Until the 90s one was American.  They may have been Black, White, Latino, but they were American.  Now its I am a Euro-American, Asian-American, Native-American, Latino-American, African-American.  Then you have political extremism.  Then there's a government that cannot function (my God, its one thing and wrong for bureaucrats to not get paid when the government can''t pass a budget, but its quite another when the army doesn't get paid).

So yeah, Balkanization within 20 to 30 years.  Collapse of the state and fragmentation? 40 to 50

Is it really that bad?!  

The facade of the dam looks as strong as ever but moisture is on the inside and is eating away at the rebat and fissures and cracks are growing

LMUR is used so far away from LOC that they are pretty safe, Mi-28Nm also were filmed using terrain as an obstacle.
Small infantry inserts with Manpads is what got Russian helicopters before, but they are above the city and it’s not contested. Safest place to hover above if you ask me

If 14.5km range is not enough then they need Hermes with a range of 20km plus, or perhaps an air launched Lancet drone... those launcher pod/bins they have, they could hang four under one of the aircrafts pylons easy enough.

With LMUR the missile can fly highish so the helicopter retains a line of sight with the missile but not the target below it, so it will be totally out of sight of the target and any defences around it.

A Ka-52 and Mi-28 are rather well armoured and protected so anyone wanting to ambush them will need to be very well equipped.

If the pilot wasn't feeling safe he could start flying backwards or left or right... I doubt the datalink to the missile would care.

If that is not safe enough then the Kh-38 will reach 40km with a 250kg bomb payload or 80km with the cluster munition warhead... which they are now free to use as they please.

Despite intensive attempts yesterday, the Russian armed forces failed to contain the Ukrainian forces in Avdeevka. Without a major offensive, they will stand still. In this war, neither side is able to make a breakthrough on the battlefield. Russia still has too few forces to defeat the Ukrainian defense.

They don't need to lose soldiers taking places... just thin down enemy numbers as they attack and you repulse their attacks... when Russia is in a position to need to attack and take ground they can encircle and envelop and then starve them out... Russia has no deadlines for this... time is not important to anyone except the west.

Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

When their money becomes worthless the rich will run to other countries and the US will have nothing to pay its enormous military and maintain its world wide presence and so lots of foreign bases will be closed and lots of foreign politicians on the US payroll will start looking for other sources of income or perhaps doing their jobs for a change.

The US has been mean and nasty to most countries it deals with where promises made and never followed up on so when the US is going through hard times I don't think everyone is going to jump to help you.

I remember that movie about extreme cold temperatures where the northern hemisphere freezes and everyone in America has to move south and they say something along the lines of... Mexico will help us... they owe us for how nice we have been to them all this time... which made everyone here in the audience laugh out loud...

As to fragmenting into a multi State area, next years election will be a game changer.

Some regions don't seem happy with the direction the country is taken... there seems to be a real difference between some highly urbanised regions in the US where most are liberal, compared with the rural areas when often conservative people live... and neither seem to be ready to take the time to understand the other... and certainly don't tolerate any different views... you must agree with me or you are an idiot... or in this case a bigot or racist.

The facade of the dam looks as strong as ever but moisture is on the inside and is eating away at the rebat and fissures and cracks are growing

Well a huge part of the problem is how much can be changed when the wrong person gets in... I think Sanders would have beaten Trump, but either of them was the wrong person in the eyes of the elite, so by destroying Sanders they got Trump... the Russian collusion shit is bullshit... Trump won because the democrats who supported Sanders could not vote for Hillary after she cheated to win the candidacy for the democrats. They released the BS on Hillary and it was true... it wasn't made up like the shit they released on Trump so she didn't deserve to win. But even being President he spent most of his term fighting impeachment and all sorts of other shit to distract him from doing anything important that might have made a difference. They used lies about Russia to stop him from working with Russia to make both countries better the same way the split the EU and Germany from Russia for all the same reasons, but to be honest I wouldn't have had it any other way because the west is toxic and would only damage Russia for Russia to become part of it.

Now Russia is not part of the west and never will be and that is good for Russia and good for the rest of the world that is looking for a strong partner they can work with that is not part of the toxic west.

The US and the west needs to grow up and stop imposing things on people without discussion or empathy... you will wear a rainbow hat and bend the knee before a sports game or you are a monster.

Freedom of speech is freedom to agree with us and hate Russia and China.

The point is that as more and more countries stop trading in US dollars and even Euros then countries that have to use Euros and US Dollars are going to find fewer and fewer countries will want to trade with them and when they do they might not want your money for their products and services.

As that changes the US is going to find out that it is going to have to make more for itself which probably isn't a bad thing but it is something that damages a country for a while while it adapts to the changes...

It should understand that because it is a weapon it uses to make smaller countries that can't make that change do as the US tells them.

Can't see any country feeling sympathy for the US or the west when  they get to that stage... would just say that Russia could have taken steps years, decades ago if they wanted to hurt the west and they have not done it till now to defend their own economy rather than to damage the west.. but that is something the west is not interested in noticing... if you asked the BBC or CNN or Fox News, the Russians have been acting against the west forever and they are the immortal eternal enemy... well no it isn't... you make it appear that way because that is the way you want it to appear.

Enough

The more Russian advance to Avdeevka, the better for Donetsk. Especially if they can make a true cauldron.