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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49

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    Post  ALAMO Wed Oct 11, 2023 6:48 pm

    Comment is not needed here.

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    Post  jhelb Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:27 pm

    Everything said and done, Kremlin will have to Balkanize the US. Else this war will continue until the US can get Russia involved in another major war.

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    Post  ucmvulcan Wed Oct 11, 2023 9:03 pm

    jhelb wrote:Everything said and done, Kremlin will have to Balkanize the US. Else this war will continue until the US can get Russia involved in another major war.

    Kremlin won't have to lift a finger. This country will balkanize itself within the next 20 to 30 years.

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    Post  Arrow Wed Oct 11, 2023 9:09 pm

    Kremlin won't have to lift a finger. This country will balkanize itself within the next 20 to 30 years. wrote:

    Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Oct 11, 2023 9:15 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

    Could be quicker than that. They are adding debt at an unsustainable rate, especially in terms of its interest repayment and no superpower can exist without faith in its currency.

    As to fragmenting into a multi State area, next years election will be a game changer.

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Oct 11, 2023 9:35 pm

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    Post  ucmvulcan Wed Oct 11, 2023 9:51 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

    I doubt that.  The superpower status is being eroded in Ukraine, Africa, central Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and is very much based on legacy.  The American middle class is in decline, the debt is staggering, and while a nuclear arsenal is dangerous, it does not necessarily preclude a collapse and balkanization.  Really, the nation has a feel of the USSR in the late 70s.  The economy is stagnating.  There are all sorts of consumer shortages and price increases.  Our young are taught to value the color of their skin and their ethnicity over their country.  The melting pot (the American analogy to the new Soviet Man) is being replaced by the salad bowl and hyphenization.  Until the 90s one was American.  They may have been Black, White, Latino, but they were American.  Now its I am a Euro-American, Asian-American, Native-American, Latino-American, African-American.  Then you have political extremism.  Then there's a government that cannot function (my God, its one thing and wrong for bureaucrats to not get paid when the government can''t pass a budget, but its quite another when the army doesn't get paid).

    So yeah, Balkanization within 20 to 30 years.  Collapse of the state and fragmentation? 40 to 50

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    Post  littlerabbit Wed Oct 11, 2023 10:11 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arrow wrote:

    Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

    I doubt that.  The superpower status is being eroded in Ukraine, Africa, central Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and is very much based on legacy.  The American middle class is in decline, the debt is staggering, and while a nuclear arsenal is dangerous, it does not necessarily preclude a collapse and balkanization.  Really, the nation has a feel of the USSR in the late 70s.  The economy is stagnating.  There are all sorts of consumer shortages and price increases.  Our young are taught to value the color of their skin and their ethnicity over their country.  The melting pot (the American analogy to the new Soviet Man) is being replaced by the salad bowl and hyphenization.  Until the 90s one was American.  They may have been Black, White, Latino, but they were American.  Now its I am a Euro-American, Asian-American, Native-American, Latino-American, African-American.  Then you have political extremism.  Then there's a government that cannot function (my God, its one thing and wrong for bureaucrats to not get paid when the government can''t pass a budget, but its quite another when the army doesn't get paid).

    So yeah, Balkanization within 20 to 30 years.  Collapse of the state and fragmentation? 40 to 50


    Is it really that bad?! Suspect

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    Post  ucmvulcan Wed Oct 11, 2023 11:29 pm

    littlerabbit wrote:
    ucmvulcan wrote:
    Arrow wrote:

    Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

    I doubt that.  The superpower status is being eroded in Ukraine, Africa, central Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America and is very much based on legacy.  The American middle class is in decline, the debt is staggering, and while a nuclear arsenal is dangerous, it does not necessarily preclude a collapse and balkanization.  Really, the nation has a feel of the USSR in the late 70s.  The economy is stagnating.  There are all sorts of consumer shortages and price increases.  Our young are taught to value the color of their skin and their ethnicity over their country.  The melting pot (the American analogy to the new Soviet Man) is being replaced by the salad bowl and hyphenization.  Until the 90s one was American.  They may have been Black, White, Latino, but they were American.  Now its I am a Euro-American, Asian-American, Native-American, Latino-American, African-American.  Then you have political extremism.  Then there's a government that cannot function (my God, its one thing and wrong for bureaucrats to not get paid when the government can''t pass a budget, but its quite another when the army doesn't get paid).

    So yeah, Balkanization within 20 to 30 years.  Collapse of the state and fragmentation? 40 to 50


    Is it really that bad?!  Suspect
    The facade of the dam looks as strong as ever but moisture is on the inside and is eating away at the rebat and fissures and cracks are growing

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Thu Oct 12, 2023 12:29 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 31 F8LbaOwXsAApuiB?format=jpg&name=large
    https://twitter.com/charly0153/status/1712172078072320245/photo/1

    @rybar_force
    In Avdiivka Russian soldiers managed to fully occupy the most important stronghold (the so-called "terrikon") on the dominant height. Its liberation will make it possible to control the approaches to the northern outskirts of Avdiivka.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 31 F8MMcQrXsAAJI19?format=jpg&name=medium

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    Post  GarryB Thu Oct 12, 2023 4:43 am

    LMUR is used so far away from LOC that they are pretty safe, Mi-28Nm also were filmed using terrain as an obstacle.
    Small infantry inserts with Manpads is what got Russian helicopters before, but they are above the city and it’s not contested. Safest place to hover above if you ask me

    If 14.5km range is not enough then they need Hermes with a range of 20km plus, or perhaps an air launched Lancet drone... those launcher pod/bins they have, they could hang four under one of the aircrafts pylons easy enough.

    With LMUR the missile can fly highish so the helicopter retains a line of sight with the missile but not the target below it, so it will be totally out of sight of the target and any defences around it.

    A Ka-52 and Mi-28 are rather well armoured and protected so anyone wanting to ambush them will need to be very well equipped.

    If the pilot wasn't feeling safe he could start flying backwards or left or right... I doubt the datalink to the missile would care.

    If that is not safe enough then the Kh-38 will reach 40km with a 250kg bomb payload or 80km with the cluster munition warhead... which they are now free to use as they please.

    Despite intensive attempts yesterday, the Russian armed forces failed to contain the Ukrainian forces in Avdeevka. Without a major offensive, they will stand still. In this war, neither side is able to make a breakthrough on the battlefield. Russia still has too few forces to defeat the Ukrainian defense.

    They don't need to lose soldiers taking places... just thin down enemy numbers as they attack and you repulse their attacks... when Russia is in a position to need to attack and take ground they can encircle and envelop and then starve them out... Russia has no deadlines for this... time is not important to anyone except the west.

    Not so fast. The USA will maintain its superpower status for the next 30 years. Moreover, they will be even more dangerous. They still maintain a massive nuclear arsenal.

    When their money becomes worthless the rich will run to other countries and the US will have nothing to pay its enormous military and maintain its world wide presence and so lots of foreign bases will be closed and lots of foreign politicians on the US payroll will start looking for other sources of income or perhaps doing their jobs for a change.

    The US has been mean and nasty to most countries it deals with where promises made and never followed up on so when the US is going through hard times I don't think everyone is going to jump to help you.

    I remember that movie about extreme cold temperatures where the northern hemisphere freezes and everyone in America has to move south and they say something along the lines of... Mexico will help us... they owe us for how nice we have been to them all this time... which made everyone here in the audience laugh out loud...

    As to fragmenting into a multi State area, next years election will be a game changer.

    Some regions don't seem happy with the direction the country is taken... there seems to be a real difference between some highly urbanised regions in the US where most are liberal, compared with the rural areas when often conservative people live... and neither seem to be ready to take the time to understand the other... and certainly don't tolerate any different views... you must agree with me or you are an idiot... or in this case a bigot or racist.

    The facade of the dam looks as strong as ever but moisture is on the inside and is eating away at the rebat and fissures and cracks are growing

    Well a huge part of the problem is how much can be changed when the wrong person gets in... I think Sanders would have beaten Trump, but either of them was the wrong person in the eyes of the elite, so by destroying Sanders they got Trump... the Russian collusion shit is bullshit... Trump won because the democrats who supported Sanders could not vote for Hillary after she cheated to win the candidacy for the democrats. They released the BS on Hillary and it was true... it wasn't made up like the shit they released on Trump so she didn't deserve to win. But even being President he spent most of his term fighting impeachment and all sorts of other shit to distract him from doing anything important that might have made a difference. They used lies about Russia to stop him from working with Russia to make both countries better the same way the split the EU and Germany from Russia for all the same reasons, but to be honest I wouldn't have had it any other way because the west is toxic and would only damage Russia for Russia to become part of it.

    Now Russia is not part of the west and never will be and that is good for Russia and good for the rest of the world that is looking for a strong partner they can work with that is not part of the toxic west.

    The US and the west needs to grow up and stop imposing things on people without discussion or empathy... you will wear a rainbow hat and bend the knee before a sports game or you are a monster.

    Freedom of speech is freedom to agree with us and hate Russia and China.

    The point is that as more and more countries stop trading in US dollars and even Euros then countries that have to use Euros and US Dollars are going to find fewer and fewer countries will want to trade with them and when they do they might not want your money for their products and services.

    As that changes the US is going to find out that it is going to have to make more for itself which probably isn't a bad thing but it is something that damages a country for a while while it adapts to the changes...

    It should understand that because it is a weapon it uses to make smaller countries that can't make that change do as the US tells them.

    Can't see any country feeling sympathy for the US or the west when  they get to that stage... would just say that Russia could have taken steps years, decades ago if they wanted to hurt the west and they have not done it till now to defend their own economy rather than to damage the west.. but that is something the west is not interested in noticing... if you asked the BBC or CNN or Fox News, the Russians have been acting against the west forever and they are the immortal eternal enemy... well no it isn't... you make it appear that way because that is the way you want it to appear.

    Enough Off Topic


    Last edited by GarryB on Thu Oct 12, 2023 11:20 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  TMA1 Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:54 am

    Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 31 F8LbaOwXsAApuiB?format=jpg&name=large
    https://twitter.com/charly0153/status/1712172078072320245/photo/1

    @rybar_force
    In Avdiivka Russian soldiers managed to fully occupy the most important stronghold (the so-called "terrikon") on the dominant height. Its liberation will make it possible to control the approaches to the northern outskirts of Avdiivka.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 31 F8MMcQrXsAAJI19?format=jpg&name=medium

    Note the thermal sights of those t-72b3 tanks. Seems like every third has the very good sosna-u system while the others have the cheaper air cooled thermal sights. Could be wrong. It is a clever way to fill up the number of tanks needed.

    Edit: added a thought

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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:58 am

    Arrow wrote:Despite intensive attempts yesterday, the Russian armed forces failed to contain the Ukrainian forces in Avdeevka. Without a major offensive, they will stand still. In this war, neither side is able to make a breakthrough on the battlefield. Russia still has too few forces to defeat the Ukrainian defense.

    Whatever, just add more ordinance

    There's no rush plus Russian MIC also needs to feed the monkey

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Oct 12, 2023 11:42 am

    TMA1 wrote:
    Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:
    https://twitter.com/charly0153/status/1712172078072320245/photo/1

    @rybar_force
    In Avdiivka Russian soldiers managed to fully occupy the most important stronghold (the so-called "terrikon") on the dominant height. Its liberation will make it possible to control the approaches to the northern outskirts of Avdiivka.

    Note the thermal sights of those t-72b3 tanks. Seems like every third has the very good sosna-u system while the others have the cheaper air cooled thermal sights. Could be wrong. It is a clever way to fill up the number of tanks needed.

    Edit: added a thought
    It looks like the rail flatbeds are new as well and the tanks are not chained down but have 'buffers' infront of and behind them.

    Also on Avdiivka, the Ukies must be getting a bit nervous now. I wonder if their fortifications work facing backwards?

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:05 pm

    The airfield in Uman is covered with Geraniums.

    Our Defense Ministry has finally set a course for the destruction of Ukrainian aviation.
    The hunt is being conducted not only for every plane/helicopter but also for airfields.

    A few days ago, airport Mirogord had the same faith

    @Slavyangrad

    Judging by the information received, this night in Kharkov the main gas pipeline north or north-west of the Kharkov CHPP-5 exploded. According to eyewitnesses, there was a roar in the vicinity and a fire was burning halfway through the sky.

    Official authorities have already warned local residents that interruptions in gas supply are possible due to the emergency situation.

    #Source

    @Slavyangrad


    Last edited by JohninMK on Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:06 pm

    Does anyone of you lads know or heard how many Israeli instructors is helping Russian Army in fight with Nazis in Urine?
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:12 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:Does anyone of you lads know or heard how many Israeli instructors is helping Russian Army in fight with Nazis in Urine?

    Eh! That's arse about face. The Israelis are rushing home from Kiev.

    GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
    @GeromanAT
    Foreign recruits from Ukraine are being transferred to Israel.

    Ukro-media reports that foreign mercenaries, whom the Western allies were actively sending to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are currently leaving Ukraine and heading to Israel to participate in the IDF operation in the Gaza Strip.
    (War is hell)

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:32 pm

    Here finally comes reality

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:36 pm

    GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
    @GeromanAT
    .
    10h
    By having this hill RF has now 100% fire control over all supply lines to Avdeevka.
    And even if a lot of pro NATO sources celebrate the latest RF losses during its advance - they can't deny the progress anymore.
    Adveevka is now under siege.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 31 F8M20-0W8AAqBY3?format=jpg&name=small

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #49 - Page 31 F8Nx4uuX0AASDLJ?format=jpg&name=small

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    Post  littlerabbit Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:44 pm


    There are some unconfirmed news/rumours that Russian Army has entered two settlements on the North of Avdeevka (Berdichi and Stepove) and one settlement on the South-East of Avdeevka (Severne).

    Not sure how accurate is this info, but we will find out today or tomorrow. dunno

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    Post  Stealthflanker Thu Oct 12, 2023 4:06 pm

    The more Russian advance to Avdeevka, the better for Donetsk. Especially if they can make a true cauldron.

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    Post  Arrow Thu Oct 12, 2023 4:46 pm

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    Post  ArgentinaGuard Thu Oct 12, 2023 4:50 pm

    jhelb wrote:Everything said and done, Kremlin will have to Balkanize the US. Else this war will continue until the US can get Russia involved in another major war.

    You just need a Russia-friendly guy like Donald J. Trump.
    I'm starting to think Trump is a great guy. A friend of the world who did not wage a single war.

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    Post  Hole Thu Oct 12, 2023 5:35 pm

    Without support from a lot of people in politics, military, corporate and civil society Trump can´t dismantle the
    Deep State and all the lobby groups even if he really wants to do it. The Deep State will go after him and his
    supporters or just wait until he is out of office again.

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    Post  mnztr Thu Oct 12, 2023 5:45 pm

    ArgentinaGuard wrote:
    jhelb wrote:Everything said and done, Kremlin will have to Balkanize the US. Else this war will continue until the US can get Russia involved in another major war.

    You just need a Russia-friendly guy like Donald J. Trump.
    I'm starting to think Trump is a great guy. A friend of the world who did not wage a single war.


    To his credit he did several good things, 1 did not start wars, 2 started surrender negotiations with the taliban, 3 undertook justice reform which is badly needed in the USA and a political hot potato. But unfortunately he is a complete asshole and also did terrible things like ordering the murder of gen solimani and ending the Iran nuclear deal which made the world more dangerous and hurt innocent Iranians. Oh one GREAT thing he did was found OPEC + lol. Yeah gotta give it to the Donald. That really cemented Saudi/Russian relations.

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