Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

caveat emptor wrote:Short video of Ropucha class ship "Minsk", recorded after the fire was extinguished.  It looks like it won't be repaired, considering the age, as damage is too extensive.  

https://t.me/milinfolive/106433

Seems like superficial damage TBH. If that is the "bad" side.

It's best to wait for official info regarding what's planned foe the ships. Cause let's be honest, who here is an engineer for ship building? We are all armchair experts.

caveat emptor wrote:Surovikin in Algeria?!

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/97537

General Surovikin in Algeria.
No one fired him from the army.  Now he is engaged in affairs in the African direction.
Earlier, General Alekseev also made his mark on the African continent.

The sort of thing which makes you wonder if Prigozhin is still alive too

Arrow wrote:

The U.S. still has about 280 Trident IIs, which can carry almost three times the payload of the Bulava.

Its just a larger, much heavier missile. Nukes are quite light. The warheads are lower yield 175 KT vs 475kt. Both serve the role of deterrence quite well.

caveat emptor wrote:Kilo class can't go through Volga-Don canal. Maximum draft is 3.5 meters if I'm not mistaken.
Also, nowadays Krasnoye Sormovo builds only parts for the subs. All improved Kilo class were built in Saint Petersburg.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_submarine_B-871

"submarine B-871 ... The submarine was launched on 10 September 1989. It sailed through the Volga and Don waterways and across the Black Sea to Sevastopol in November 1989"

And like I said Krasnoye Sormovo was still building Kilo submarines in 2005 for the Chinese. It could build them now if they wanted to.

https://mil.today/2019/Business5/

"Russian Shipyard Krasnoye Sormovo Seeks to Work for Military Again ... We’ve retained expertise, for example, in Project 636 Varshavyanka-class submarines. Our staff is still employed, too. Sure, not in the amount we used to have in the past, but in case of the relevant orders, we can prepare for construction of diesel subs within a year", assured Pershin.


Keep reading HI Sutton.

The Ropuchas are quite old and won't conduct any amphibious landings that they were originally built for anyway. They've been used as armor taxis to Syria mostly.

You can always put the sub on a floating barge and sail it on the canals.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:The Ropuchas are quite old and won't conduct any amphibious landings that they were originally built for anyway. They've been used as armor taxis to Syria mostly.

More than anything else, use on the Syrian Express must have seriously eaten into the service life of almost everything mechanical onboard.

So far I have seen no comment on what happened to the rest of the salvo or really anything more than the shipyard and a summary.

Would all 10 of those 10 missiles be targeted at the ship repair dock?

What happened to the other 8? No collateral damage on land reported from falling missiles so were they intercepted at sea? But Pantsir downed a few so that would be on land. So where is the wreckage?

Or, if Shoigu got it right on missile type are the Russians letting the SS story roll for some reason?

ALAMO wrote:

Good morning. What do you make of this? (from a poster on MoA)

An extremely interesting perspective - especially since it is critical for Russia. It is worth reading, although it requires a lot of time. It is rather for serious and experienced blog participants, as both the author's perspective and he himself are unusual. There is a translator implemented on the website - scroll past the end of the article, almost to the end, and there select in the window the language into which the text on the website should be displayed.

It would be good to hear the opinion of serious blog participants about this. I think that the author correctly indicates the causes of many contradictions in Russia's actions, which are still the subject of disputes here.

https://smp.edu.pl/przyczyny-specjalnej-operacji-wojskowej/

https://smp.edu.pl/sprzecznosci-specjalnej-operacji-wojskowej/

https://smp.edu.pl/sprzecznosci-specjalnej-operacji-wojskowej-czesc-2/

https://smp.edu.pl/sprzecznosci-specjalnej-operacji-wojskowej-czesc-3-ostatnia/

(this is absolutely not Polish mainstream)

Posted by: nc | Sep 14 2023 23:13 utc | 149

lancelot wrote:

mr_hd wrote:There was big drone attacks on both sides over night, in Ukraine and over Crimea...
Ukraine is getting more bold in asymmetric warfare, its arsenal and means to execute long range attacks are getting more sophisticated.
And costs for Russia involvement is sky rocketing in any sense...it is the strategy that actually works quite well so Ukraine will not change it.
Russia went into war to assure its status as great power, project power more far from its borders and make its own security terms. But is now more unsecured then ever, its projection capabilities for example in Black Sea are under big stress and loss of equipment is astronomical...and there is no way out of it.
That is what this war costs Russia till now.

Ukraine hit two ships which were in dry dock in repair. While the cost is significant do not over state it. Already heard HI Sutton hyperbole on it claiming Russia cannot replace losses in Kilo subs because the Bosporus is closed to military ships. That retard never heard of the Russian Canal System. Perhaps he needs to look at a map and see where the Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard is. It built Kilo submarines for export in 2005. And the Russians can build like 1-2 of these subs a year.

It is not point can Russia repair or re-build more subs or ships, it can but it will cost more and take very long time. Ukrainian asymmetrical strategy is only it can have against much stronger opponent. It is type of strategy that is proven on the battlefield many times in many wars. So Ukraine can not have one huge mass attack and eliminate all Russian ports there, air defenses and make quick victory, that is out of question. But it can make more and more difficult for Russia to supply Crimea, geography is on Ukrainian side, and it is using it to make security situation more dangerous and volatile there, and it can attack more strategic posts still in theory. So it is slicing and cutting more and more till Russia will have more and more problems to keep status quo and power balance changes in Ukrainian favor. This is exactly what is happening with such attacks. Let's summarize in past two weeks Ukraine took over gas platforms in the sea. Before that they took out one air defense system (s-300 0r s-400) on western side of Crimea. Then they bombed Sevastopol, eliminated one sub, one landing ship in dry dock, damaged one patrol boat by marine drones. Then they eliminated few patrol boats on the river near Kherson. Then they attacked two patrol boats that were in open sea around peninsula. Then they eliminated one s-400 on the eastern side of peninsula.

What is here significant is that Ukraine is able to have very sophisticated attacks on large area using different tactics and different weapons on longer time period - usage of maritime drones, UAVs, plus shadow storms, S-200 and Neptune missiles all this to use together is not easy at all... It is not accident or pure luck they got hit on those targets. They demonstrated ability to penetrate the most fortified Russian base on Crimea which is impressive thing to do.

When all that is taken into account - Russia can not replace all lost equipment so fast and just costs of replacement of this equipment is in billions of dollars number. Russia is put in defensive posture. But Ukraine will continue to slice more systematically, it works. It will take very long time but so far Russia does not have any clear way out of this.

JohninMK wrote:So far I have seen no comment on what happened to the rest of the salvo or really anything more than the shipyard and a summary.

Would all 10 of those 10 missiles be targeted at the ship repair dock?

What happened to the other 8? No collateral damage on land reported from falling missiles so were they intercepted at sea? But Pantsir downed a few so that would be on land. So where is the wreckage?

Or, if Shoigu got it right on missile type are the Russians letting the SS story roll for some reason?

Read somewhere 7 intercepted and 3 hit the dry dock.

In other words F-16s can be housed into any NATO country to attack Russia and they still won't do anything if sukhois are hosted in romania.

An Su-24 flys very low and very fast and is a difficult target to deal with at the best of times... an Su-24 taking off from a motorway in Ukraine, and flying out into the Black Sea and launching some 500km range missiles 500km away from the targets they are going after and then immediately running to airfields in the west where they can land and then probably be shipped back to the Ukraine to do it all over again means they can launch missiles and have a decent chance of evading getting shot down.

If they use the F-16s in a similar way then they might be as effective as these Su-24s... which is to say not particularly effective.

They hit a single SAM TEL and a couple of old boats in a shipyard being repaired in a fairly large coordinated strike that likely too months and millions of dollars to coordinate and plan while risking platforms and using up millions of dollars in cruise missiles to achieve a pretty questionable result.

All this effort with such little gain... boy... they must be going to win now...

How many thousands of Ukrainian soldiers died on the battlefield as a distraction to this or is this the distraction to the continued destruction of Kievs forces?

F-16 can lift of from Romania, probably with NATO pilots too, the fly into Ukraine, release CMs and scoot. Basically, what Su-24 doing, but safer. I don’t think there will be any point in challenging Russian air power.

Which creates a situation where some sort of ambush could be organised to take out a few of these new super planes...

How does Ukraine even manage to operate fighter jets? I thought Russia could close their airports and bomb their hangars. Maybe I was missing something.

Most Soviet era aircraft including MiG-29 and Su-24 and Su-25 can operate from short stretches of roadway...  keep them hidden... fuel them up and load them up and takeoff from a surprise location, fly low and fast to the launch point of the 500km range cruise missile you are carrying... release and then run for the border and land in a safe HATO country with your plane then dismantled and shipped to Ukraine on a train most likely... reassembled and sent to a different stretch of motorway.

We know these images are Fake, however, where is the before and after satellite footage when Russia obliterated the US Patriot missile systems? It would have been a powerful propaganda material against NATzO equipment

Do they want the west to know the quality of their view of Kiev and its nearby surroundings... and even if they provided clear video the west would show it and label it as the Orcs destroying S-400s in Moscow.

I like Putin, and praise him for being very careful about civilian lives, but he needs to add some Stalinist ruthlessness to his shrewdness.

A quarter of a million Ukrainian men are dead in this conflict at the very least... probably 400K or more in reality... that isn't by accident or a mistake.

Short video of Ropucha class ship "Minsk", recorded after the fire was extinguished. It looks like it won't be repaired, considering the age, as damage is too extensive.

They can add an extra Ivan Gren to the production list to replace that just fine.

The U.S. still has about 280 Trident IIs, which can carry almost three times the payload of the Bulava.

When the US launches 280 Tridents then it has lost because everyone has lost by then.

Would all 10 of those 10 missiles be targeted at the ship repair dock?

Would any of those 10 missiles target a shipyard drydock?

Obviously it is a soft target... they can claim destroying a Russian sub and pretend it is a brand new operational type, but the core reason they might target it is because it would not likely be as heavily defended as their actual sub pens... a bit like hitting that airfield when they struck some aircraft over in a far corner looking a  bit derelict and abandoned and therefore easier to hit probably.

This is not a good advert for the mighty power of HATO cruise missiles.

Read somewhere 7 intercepted and 3 hit the dry dock.

So they knew most were going to get shot down so they target something out of the way to maximise the chance of something getting through.... a bit like shooting for an ankle or elbow because everything else is too well protected and you don't like your chances...[/quote]

mr_hd wrote:

lancelot wrote:

mr_hd wrote:There was big drone attacks on both sides over night, in Ukraine and over Crimea...
Ukraine is getting more bold in asymmetric warfare, its arsenal and means to execute long range attacks are getting more sophisticated.
And costs for Russia involvement is sky rocketing in any sense...it is the strategy that actually works quite well so Ukraine will not change it.
Russia went into war to assure its status as great power, project power more far from its borders and make its own security terms. But is now more unsecured then ever, its projection capabilities for example in Black Sea are under big stress and loss of equipment is astronomical...and there is no way out of it.
That is what this war costs Russia till now.

Ukraine hit two ships which were in dry dock in repair. While the cost is significant do not over state it. Already heard HI Sutton hyperbole on it claiming Russia cannot replace losses in Kilo subs because the Bosporus is closed to military ships. That retard never heard of the Russian Canal System. Perhaps he needs to look at a map and see where the Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard is. It built Kilo submarines for export in 2005. And the Russians can build like 1-2 of these subs a year.

It is not point can Russia repair or re-build more subs or ships, it can but it will cost more and take very long time. Ukrainian asymmetrical strategy is only it can have against much stronger opponent. It is type of strategy that is proven on the battlefield many times in many wars. So Ukraine can not have one huge mass attack and eliminate all Russian ports there, air defenses and make quick victory, that is out of question. But it can make more and more difficult for Russia to supply Crimea, geography is on Ukrainian side, and it is using it to make security situation more dangerous and volatile there, and it can attack more strategic posts still in theory. So it is slicing and cutting more and more till Russia will have more and more problems to keep status quo and power balance changes in Ukrainian favor. This is exactly what is happening with such attacks. Let's summarize in past two weeks Ukraine took over gas platforms in the sea. Before that they took out one air defense system (s-300 0r s-400) on western side of Crimea. Then they bombed Sevastopol, eliminated one sub, one landing ship in dry dock, damaged one patrol boat by marine drones. Then they eliminated few patrol boats on the river near Kherson. Then they attacked two patrol boats that were in open sea around peninsula. Then they eliminated one s-400 on the eastern side of peninsula.

What is here significant is that Ukraine is able to have very sophisticated attacks on large area using different tactics and different weapons on longer time period - usage of maritime drones, UAVs, plus shadow storms, S-200 and Neptune missiles all this to use together is not easy at all... It is not accident or pure luck they got hit on those targets. They demonstrated ability to penetrate the most fortified Russian base on Crimea which is impressive thing to do.

When all that is taken into account - Russia can not replace all lost equipment so fast and just costs of replacement of this equipment is in billions of dollars number. Russia is put in defensive posture. But Ukraine will continue to slice more systematically, it works. It will take very long time but so far Russia does not have any clear way out of this.

The latest NATO wet dreams.
How many times has NATO changed its strategy already. Economic shock & awe. Defending ground to the last. Terror drone campaign against Moscow City windows. Great counter-offensive. Now the 'assymetric' strategy against the Black Sea Fleet.
Well at least they're getting less ambitious and more realistic every single time.

I have an easy prediction to make here. The Ukraine and its NATO patrons will lose manpower and expensive equipment much quicker than the Russians will in this latest little side theater of their making, now that they seem to have given up all hope of actually winning the war and have switched to annoying Russia in the Crimea in the hopes of bankrupting it. NATO economies are also shrinking faster than Russia's economy is growing the same time as all this is going on too.

Russia has not switched to the defensive. That's a mistake in your analysis. In fact it has been in the defensive ever since the first month of the war, very much by choice, and the Ukraine now is attempting to bait it out of its defensive posture and goad it into an attack towards Odessa; by actively posing a threat to the Crimea, Russian Black Sea Fleet, and Russian civilian shipping in the Black Sea. Which it honestly might as well and cut off all threats in one fell swoop while it's at it.
As for the allegations of vast damage that you regularly pen here. I'll be honestly surprised if the cost of all these Storm Shadows, UAVs, Neptuns, and all the NATO and Ukrainian specialists roasted in their speed boats and strikes on Nikolaev - does not exceed the cost of the Kilo sub damage, the Ropucha class damage, and the two destroyed S-300 batteries that they've achieved for their troubles. And seizing abandoned oil rigs is not going to lose Russia any money either, sorry.

They demonstrated ability to penetrate the most fortified Russian base on Crimea which is impressive thing to do.

But they didn't... the most fortified things in Crimea will be the sub pens and the Black Sea Fleet HQ and probably communications buildings and a few other critical things they didn't even try to attack because they knew they would fail.

The decoys and drones and the missiles shot down might have been going for such targets or it all might have been aimed at this shipyard to overwhelm the patchy defence it would have had... ie no direct protection other than being located near protected things which led to almost everything directed at it being shot down.

You are crowing about this and it is pathetic... it shows how weak HATO really is if this is all they can achieve with their state of the art stealthy cruise missiles... what a joke.

@Alamo, I understand what you are trying to say, but equally I would think leaving his rants unexamined and uncritiqued would be a disservice to those who read here to learn and understand what is going on.... any scientific journal that is not tested and checked is worthless heresay and speculation and BS.

When someone who opposes the paper offers a critique then that is when the truth of the document is tested and can be evaluated by others... are the critiques fair or does the original claim hold water and make sense...

Up to the reader of course, but don't omit the criticism just because you see the obvious flaws and errors and propaganda in it.

ALAMO wrote:Do you seriously see any point in arguing with a chimp?
The only thing you really achieve is taking this ape out of a cage.

It may be a chimp but it's holding a hand-grenade the same as all the primates NATO sends are trained to do

So you have to take care of the situation one way or the other

ALAMO wrote:Do you seriously see any point in arguing with a chimp?
The only thing you really achieve is taking this ape out of a cage.

I am all in tears because one internet idiot/warrior call me monkey   ...

flamming_python wrote:

mr_hd wrote:

lancelot wrote:

mr_hd wrote:There was big drone attacks on both sides over night, in Ukraine and over Crimea...
Ukraine is getting more bold in asymmetric warfare, its arsenal and means to execute long range attacks are getting more sophisticated.
And costs for Russia involvement is sky rocketing in any sense...it is the strategy that actually works quite well so Ukraine will not change it.
Russia went into war to assure its status as great power, project power more far from its borders and make its own security terms. But is now more unsecured then ever, its projection capabilities for example in Black Sea are under big stress and loss of equipment is astronomical...and there is no way out of it.
That is what this war costs Russia till now.

Ukraine hit two ships which were in dry dock in repair. While the cost is significant do not over state it. Already heard HI Sutton hyperbole on it claiming Russia cannot replace losses in Kilo subs because the Bosporus is closed to military ships. That retard never heard of the Russian Canal System. Perhaps he needs to look at a map and see where the Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard is. It built Kilo submarines for export in 2005. And the Russians can build like 1-2 of these subs a year.

It is not point can Russia repair or re-build more subs or ships, it can but it will cost more and take very long time. Ukrainian asymmetrical strategy is only it can have against much stronger opponent. It is type of strategy that is proven on the battlefield many times in many wars. So Ukraine can not have one huge mass attack and eliminate all Russian ports there, air defenses and make quick victory, that is out of question. But it can make more and more difficult for Russia to supply Crimea, geography is on Ukrainian side, and it is using it to make security situation more dangerous and volatile there, and it can attack more strategic posts still in theory. So it is slicing and cutting more and more till Russia will have more and more problems to keep status quo and power balance changes in Ukrainian favor. This is exactly what is happening with such attacks. Let's summarize in past two weeks Ukraine took over gas platforms in the sea. Before that they took out one air defense system (s-300 0r s-400) on western side of Crimea. Then they bombed Sevastopol, eliminated one sub, one landing ship in dry dock, damaged one patrol boat by marine drones. Then they eliminated few patrol boats on the river near Kherson. Then they attacked two patrol boats that were in open sea around peninsula. Then they eliminated one s-400 on the eastern side of peninsula.

What is here significant is that Ukraine is able to have very sophisticated attacks on large area using different tactics and different weapons on longer time period - usage of maritime drones, UAVs, plus shadow storms, S-200 and Neptune missiles all this to use together is not easy at all... It is not accident or pure luck they got hit on those targets. They demonstrated ability to penetrate the most fortified Russian base on Crimea which is impressive thing to do.

When all that is taken into account - Russia can not replace all lost equipment so fast and just costs of replacement of this equipment is in billions of dollars number. Russia is put in defensive posture. But Ukraine will continue to slice more systematically, it works. It will take very long time but so far Russia does not have any clear way out of this.

The latest NATO wet dreams.
How many times has NATO changed its strategy already. Economic shock & awe. Defending ground to the last. Terror drone campaign against Moscow City windows. Great counter-offensive. Now the 'assymetric' strategy against the Black Sea Fleet.
Well at least they're getting less ambitious and more realistic every single time.

I have an easy prediction to make here. The Ukraine and its NATO patrons will lose manpower and expensive equipment much quicker than the Russians will in this latest little side theater of their making, now that they seem to have given up all hope of actually winning the war and have switched to annoying Russia in the Crimea in the hopes of bankrupting it. NATO economies are also shrinking faster than Russia's economy is growing the same time as all this is going on too.

Russia has not switched to the defensive. That's a mistake in your analysis. In fact it has been in the defensive ever since the first month of the war, very much by choice, and the Ukraine now is attempting to bait it out of its defensive posture and goad it into an attack towards Odessa; by actively posing a threat to the Crimea, Russian Black Sea Fleet, and Russian civilian shipping in the Black Sea. Which it honestly might as well and cut off all threats in one fell swoop while it's at it.
As for the allegations of vast damage that you regularly pen here. I'll be honestly surprised if the cost of all these Storm Shadows, UAVs, Neptuns, and all the NATO and Ukrainian specialists roasted in their speed boats and strikes on Nikolaev - does not exceed the cost of the Kilo sub damage, the Ropucha class damage, and the two destroyed S-300 batteries that they've achieved for their troubles. And seizing abandoned oil rigs is not going to lose Russia any money either, sorry.

That is ok, time will tell if your point of view is more correct, I do not have problem if other people are right or have different opinion from my own. I normally like Russia and would not like that country would lose its prestige, status and power in general.