Russian special military operation in Ukraine #46

P 800 Onyx flew to Odessa at night.
https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/112182

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[quote="GarryB"]

This SMO wasn't a spur of the moment thing and they didn't have severe shortages of ammo like the west has had, so unless you can show conclusive evidence I am calling BS.

BTW if Russia has been using cluster armed artillery shells there would be more cluster munitions on the ground than grains of sand on a beach... using cluster munitions should allow the Russians to get the same coverage or better with vastly fewer rounds fired.

[quote]

The case with you my friend is that you are much resistant to anything that opposes your idee fix.
I don't care much, so that is just an observation.

Cluster ammunition has been widely used in this conflict since the very beginning, and the fact that you lack the resources or knowledge to verify that is not my concern.

First of all, you must accept the fact that cluster ammo is not a Wunderwaffe and the hammer of Thor. It is just an ordinary tool of artillery destruction. Soviets had cluster ammunition for almost all calibers they used.
For Smerch it is 9M55K rocket with 9N210 or 9N235 subammunition. For Uragan it is 9M27K. For Tornado it is 9M544/549. For Tochka it i 9N24 warhead. For Iskander it is 9N730. For 203mm 2S7 it is 3O14. For 152mm systems, it is 3O13. For 240mm mortar it is 3O8. For 120 mm mortar it is M971 mine. All but Iskander and Tornado are widespread for both sides.

The things are so common in this conflict that one needs to be impregnated to deny that - which is what you are performing now.

Here you have Ukrs firing Pion with claimed round :



Here you have remains of subammunition from Iskander :



There are thousands of Uragan/Smerch cargo sections scattering the ground everywhere there. There are tons of registered films showing use of it, everywhere.

Here you have a photo from 2015, Dobaltsevo city.



And some daily load from 2022 and on ...









And here you have a cherry picking, from Aleppo this time. Yes, I know, it is Syria - and guess who was dropping RBK containers there?



Further discussion in a matter of denying that is a waste of my time, so I won't participate.

Will Schryver
@imetatronink
So the Russians are apparently returning much of Odessa's port infrastructure to its pre-Russian Empire status.

I submit they have a persuasive argument that it is entirely within their natural and lawful rights to do so. After all, they are the ones who built it all in the first place.

I suspect it's something they've actually wanted to do for a long time now, but grudgingly refrained from it in the interest of broader geopolitical considerations.

But the destruction of a single span of the highway lanes of the Kerch bridge has — at least in the eyes of most of those they desire to make and keep as friends — provided them with an ironclad justification to retaliate against the presumed source of that attack.

And although it remains for the daylight and photo evidence to more clearly reveal the score, it appears that essential elements of the seaborne logistical hubs of Ukraine are being forcibly closed — as well, if early reports are true, important air defense installations in the vicinity.

I expect the Russians will also follow this move with some sort of expansion of their "forbidden zone" on and over the Black Sea.

The escalatory ladder tallies yet another rung.

Big Serge
@witte_sergei
·
10h
The port in Odessa is being absolutely rocked, and there is an additional wave of Shaheds on the way. At least 8 TU-95's airborne right now.

Oliver Alexander
@OAlexanderDK
·
2h
Ukraine claims that tonight’s attack on Odesa consisted of:

- 16 Kalibr cruise missiles
- 8 Kh-22 missiles
- 6 P-800 Oniks missiles
- 1 Kh-59 missile
- 32 Shaded drones

Of these Ukrainian air defense intercepted:

- 13 Kalibr cruise missiles
- 1 Kh-59 missile
- 23 Shaded drones

A Ukie response

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
6h
A Russian Arms Depot in Occupied-Crimea near the Town of Staryi Krym also know as “Old Crimea” has reportedly been Struck by a Ukrainian “Kamikaze” Attack Drone this morning causing a Large Fire to occur and setting off Secondary Explosions.

4h
The Fire at the Russian Military Training Ground and Arms Depot in the Kirovsky District of Eastern Crimea is continuing to burning and spread after it was reportedly Targeted by at least 3 Ukrainian Attack Drones this morning; the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has Closed the nearby Highway and announced the Evacuation of roughly 2,000 Residents from 4 Settlements near the Training Ground due to High Risks of the Fire continuing to spread.

This thing proves a niche existing in the Russian striking systems.
It is 300 km straight line from Sevastopol to Odessa.
And Russian forces occupy positions halving that distance.
Yet they must use expensive strike platforms to hit it, lacking the ones 120-500 km range.
I would expect something to change here, soon.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko

Bloomberg: Zelensky's fantasies to continue the grain deal without Russia are meaningless

Ukraine urges other countries to continue deliveries from its three deep-water ports covered by the agreement, the newspaper writes. However, the United States said that escorting ships is not an option.

“No sane owner would go there uninsured. Without the protection of a safe corridor, Ukraine’s trade is dead,” said the co-director of the Greek company Doric Shipbrokers SA, which previously sent ships through the shipping lane.

No one will sail to Ukraine without Russian guarantees

Now looks more like Bagdad 2003 ...

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/73832

Holly shit ...





Screens from Virazh-Planshet Ukro AD command subsystem ...

It was the heaviest attack in a war, and seems like it is ongoing ...

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko.
.
5h
More info on the Russian attack between Marinka and Krasnogorovka

Surprise attack of a large Russian armored group broke through the defense of the AFU near Donetsk at the Trudovskaya mine

An unexpected attack that began yesterday with significant forces allowed our fighters to make significant progress, ours are gaining a foothold on the achieved lines and clearing the complex of buildings near the mine from the enemy.

The enemy is actively resisting, including carrying out large-scale remote mining of our forward positions and the nearest rear.

Also, our artillery hit the ammunition depot of the AFU in Krasnogorovka.

So far, all attempts of enemy counterattacks have been thwarted.
During the fighting, ours took about 1 km of territory towards Krasnogorovka. The enemy was taken by surprise and now we continue to expand the zone of control. The Armed Forces of Ukraine put up fierce resistance, not sparing shells.

ALAMO wrote:This thing proves a niche existing in the Russian striking systems.
It is 300 km straight line from Sevastopol to Odessa.
And Russian forces occupy positions halving that distance.
Yet they must use expensive strike platforms to hit it, lacking the ones 120-500 km range.

Like Hole said, that is about the range of the Kh-59. But the thing is, I doubt the Kh-59 is significantly cheaper than a Kalibr.
Both missiles use the exact same engine. TRDD-50. The extra range is basically a matter of enlarging the fuel tank on the cruise missile.
If they want to make the whole thing cheaper then they need to work on the cost of the engine and electronics of the missile.
Size and range seems to be just fuel, which is not particularly expensive.

Still I do think they need to put more modern weapons like Kh-59MK2 into mass production. And maybe make a stealth version of Kalibr.

Erk wrote:Gee, I didn't expect Russia to target the Odessa grain loading machinery.
I guess the want Ukraine to use rail instead.

The more they overload the Ukrainian railway network and strain their logistics the better. And it is quite rich for the West to state Russia is responsible for world hunger, when they have been hobbling Russia and Belarussia's grain and fertilizer exports. Which dwarf whatever Ukraine exports.

Considering the interception ratio, stealth Kalibr would be overkill already

But as "niche" I meant some really cheap stuff like extended range Tornado-S missiles. Or lower tier ballistic, smaller than Iskander.