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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird 24/01/23, 11:35 pm

    A thought that has left me scratching my head.

    If you supply arms to a terrorist.. you BECOME a terrorist.
    The Ukrainian junta or rather its American proxies, the Banderites have even been classed as terrorists by Western govts eg Japan. And of course Japan are no friends of Russia.

    Its one thing to sell arms to a country. But when that "country" is spending in a few months more than its actually worth... then its clear that "country" is now the cannon fodder arm of other countries, not itself any more.
    So the "Ukraine" is now the cannon fodder of the American and EU armies, nothing more.

    EU vassals are emptying their supplies for the terrorist proxies.

    Is America trying to bait Russia into the EU, via its actions including some as yet, unknown atrocities.

    If Russia was forced to enter Pooland, Romania, the Baltics or whoever, is America's plan to appear as the "hero" and "valiantly defend them" WW2 style?

    I would put nothing beyond the capabilities of the vermin in Washington and the EU and the fags who infest British politics where I am.

    NATO would never have dared these acts in Cold War 1. It might have armed Afghanistan but it wasn't killing large numbers of Russian civilians like it is today. Sounds like there isn't enough fear of Russia in GATO these days.

    NATO are openly acting as a terrorist state, but Russia is doing nothing against them.
    This situation can only continue for so long.

    The question is... what happens when that ends?

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    Post  The-thing-next-door 24/01/23, 11:46 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Unlikely Putin would have done so by now otherwise, but an unwillingness to deploy more troops in large numbers does suggest, Russia had no plans to take all of Ukraine which would be a massive mistake but hey, that's their call.

    With their current numbers they will not be able to reach Odessa for example and if you fail to take Odessa then you wasted a golden opportunity you will not get a second chance at and it would be a massive mistake

    Quite the wishful thinking on your part, Russia has no choice but to take all of Ukraine. They can call up more troops as needed rather than blowing thier whole economy on this one special military operation.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk 24/01/23, 11:48 pm

    flamingpython wrote:
    In Armenia Russia is gradually losing its positions. This is kind of inevitable, and through mostly its own mistakes.
    The Armenians have elected Pashinyan twice in a row by now
    Russia has sold arms to their enemies Azerbaijan in the inter-war years. And recently has failed to even make a protest when Azerbaijan launched some strikes on Armenian territory proper.
    Meanwhile Azerbaijan's ally, Turkey, is slowly distancing itself from NATO, and the same NATO is increasingly condemning Azerbaijan. NATO is interested in surrounding Turkey. The French are offering the Armenians to come in there with their own forces.. and at this stage Moscow can either chose to sit still while its forces are spied on there and the agreements it brokered are undermined - or leave. And Azerbaijan is no friend of Russia either, it remains to be seen if it will do Russia any favors to keep it there on account of it preferring them over the French.

    This is fine,

    as long as Russia is in NGK, it doesn't matter if both the Armenians and Azeris want to sell their own states down the river

    This is where competent leadership makes a difference, had Russia sat on its ass while this took shape and allowed the US and Turkey to start a war there, then it would have been a fail

    But having the peacekeeping brigade in there nipped it in the bud

    As soon as one helicopter got shot down, they sent 2000 man brigade in there

    And it goes as such: shoot down the heli, you win a prize - 2000 peacekeepers

    Okay so you shell and kill a peacekeeper or 2, and you win a second prize, a VDV brigade got flown into Nakhchivan, and your at war with Russia now

    If you push against the VDV, you win your 3rd prize, a kalibration experience courtesy of the Caspian fleet

    And so on and so forth

    Russia can easily manage this region by military force alone

    Let us not forget both Gyumri, Erebuni, and the Russian military presence in Armenia itself - Russia won't be leaving those bases

    As for Kazakhstan it will depend on the elites there and on the VDV being bolstered by more men, to go in there at will if needed

    And for Belarus, no maidan can happen there- just like NGK, Russia has sent its army there already,

    And as the limitrophs cry about, once the Russian army sits down in your country, you gonna be stuck with em for a long time

    So I don't worry about NGK, Belarus, or even Kazakhstan (as long as the 76th, 98th, or any other VDV grouping is ready to land in Almaty


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    Post  SeigSoloyvov 24/01/23, 11:53 pm

    "Quite the wishful thinking on your part, Russia has no choice but to take all of Ukraine. They can call up more troops as needed rather than blowing thier whole economy on this one special military operation."

    Um what....? I simply stated the current number of troops in Ukraine isn't enough to annex the country and that there Putin hasn't shown any willingness to increase the needed numbers.

    I can easily argue your words are wishful thinking as they assumptions on your end, maybe Russia will deploy the hundred of thousands needed or maybe they won't. As it stands right now, the numbers aren't there

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug 24/01/23, 11:55 pm

    The US considered Azov heroes at first in 2014, then they were officially designated as a neo-Nazi terrorist group until 2022 when they suddenly became heroes again, right?

    Kinda like Al-Qaedas character arc from being the heroes against the USSR in the 1980s to the terrorist villains in the 1990s and 2000s, to the stand up heroes again once they started fighting against secular Damascus and its Russian protector in Syria (and now some of these Syria-veteran jihadi headchoppers are on Kiev's side in Ukraine, having failed down there, but now doubly "heroes")...

    To be honest, I think these geopolitically expedient but otherwise mindblowingly dishonest and disgusting switcharoos are a major factor why the non-western majority of the world is  "pro-Russian" when these two civilizations if you will wind up clashing.

    The many who are morally appalled by western behavior but on the fence in practical terms tend to be ultimately wrestled into full western submission by the threat of sanctions and whatever else in the way of leverage the US has over them.


    Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on 25/01/23, 12:06 am; edited 5 times in total

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    Post  Isos 24/01/23, 11:55 pm

    Ukraine isn't full of troops. Most of their army, soldiers abd equipement, is on the front, once you crush the front there won't be that much resistance behind it. They will just roll over the countryside and encircle the cities.

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    Post  ALAMO 24/01/23, 11:58 pm


    Your numbers frankly speaking aren't even accurate and are built of mere assumptions that you agree with, so before you say I cannot do math. Get your numbers right


    You are too illiterate to even understand what is being told to you. dunno  scratch
    I have instructed you twice already with all the numbers, calculated MUCH in Ukro favor actually, but it doesn't help you in getting a point.
    The thing is getting ridiculous, as there must be some mental issue behind  scratch

    But again, for those who might have missed the numbers.

    43 mln pre-2014, yet it is just a rush calculation based on the existing data that didn't consider the millions of Ukrainians already working abroad being counted either.
    Those were mostly productive age male population.

    Now we turn the higher gear.

    Minus Crimea 2.5 mln

    Minus LDNR calculated at approx. 7 mln

    Some f them are reported to migrate to Ukraine or other places (including Russia), but the number is not higher than some 1.5mln. So no matter how we count that, we talk 8.5mln population gone.

    Here is statistical survey for the Ukrainian migration made official by the Polish National Bank.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Sex-of-migrants

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Age-structure-of-migrants

    We can clearly see the difference in the structure.

    In sole 2014, Polish business requested 370k job permits for Ukrainians, and in 2015 - 760k. We talk JOB PERMITS only. And they were coming at the same rate in the following years...

    This data structure will be much same for any immigration country, that is Hungary, Germany OR Russia, being the biggest destination for Ukrainan refugees.

    In total, the number of Ulrainians who left before 24Feb22 is calculated at approx. 7 mln.

    Some sources give a higher number.

    After 24Feb22, newly incorporated territories brought at least another 2.5 mln depopulation for the Ukrostate.

    And NEW wave of refugees.
    ONLY IN EUROPE 8 MILLION new refugees have been registered. Some get back indeed. But some left after that.
    The number for Russia and Belarus is 2.9 MLN more.

    It is not a fukin rocket science, but UNHCR official data.

    https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

    The overall picture leaves a wasteland where are hardly ANY Ukrainians left, as we talk 43 - 8,5 - 7,0 - 2,5 - 8 - 2,9...

    Dude, that makes LESS THAN 15 MLN people "left".

    The data is so incredible, that I feel an issue to believe in it - the cause is that some Ukrainians did return.
    But it does not change the situation much.
    It is a shadow of the state that existed pre-2014, and I can't even find a word to describe what is it if we consider the 1993 peak of 53!!! MLN Ukrainians left after the "genocide the Russkie unleashed on them in the Soviet Union".

    The Soviet Union mass mobilisation of 1942 brought 6% of the population. SIX. In a country where average age was 15+ years lower, and the average family size was DOUBLE to today's standard.

    No way yo will get the point if explained for the third time, but the others surely will.


    Last edited by ALAMO on 25/01/23, 12:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Werewolf 25/01/23, 12:00 am

    @ALAMO
    You are seriously overcalculating the collateral damage the Jews are inflicting on the population.

    I don't think I do.
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 77dd2ed0-621a-4429-9e4b-61862137e75b-003_AP_APTOPIX_Israel_Palestinians
    They flattned an entire building with several dozen apartments and news agency that was supposedly "HAMAS" GPS-Jamming HQ. Of course the jews always make phoney pretext similiar to white powder in a tube claims to justify whatever they decide is appropriate. The result of such attacks are always innocent people dying ten if not hundred fold. No one speaks about it because all media is controlled by the very same lobby.


    Russkie's operational planning is still better.
    We know that and always knew that.
    100.000 -140.000 VSU dead
    while less than 10.000 civilians of which have been killed probably more by VSU's PVO and Nazis than by anything else

    And - what is most important - we don't talk about innocent people who just live there.
    We talk about oligarchs and others who run this circus for years.
    Nobody asks for obliterating the living quarters of Kiev.
    But those thugs live in separate areas. North and south of the city mostly, this is where those pigs are living.
    There are no innocents there. And there is one great tool they understand - hitting them hard in a pocket.

    That is the very reason I wanted to differentiate from your "Jews" comparasion as they are certainly never surgical in their approach and have same mentality as Kiev's Nazis of superiority. Someone with such a mindset will never care about the lifes of innocents especially if they perceive them as inferior.

    If Russia had Izd. 305 with 500km Range, then please go and kill more oligarchs through window like they did once before. If the oligarch lifes in a mansion, then Iskander is the choice. I mean, he could be anywhere in his 23 room Mansion, need to make sure all of them get checked. I would even participate in a fundraiser just for that purpose with a referendum of who of the oligarchs is the first target.


    ...
    War won't be nice anymore, if your villa on a bank of Dnepr ceases to exist, including the ugly "art" you have collected there with a golden sink and toilet.
    Until that will happen, the kievan junta mainstays won't even feel the smell of war. They still do have electricity, heating, and all the comforts that can be provided.
    They don't care how many tons of Mykolas will be turned into a SPAM in Artemovsk, Marianka, or Soledar.
    Hitting them hard is an act of mercy carried toward ordinary people who were unlucky enough to be born there.


    That ugly "art" is just international norm of oligarchs to wash their money as it is international agreed upon that art has 0 tax on it and can cost from 0.1 € to billions. The scheme of modern art was designed only for that only purpose, to wash money. Modern Art so simple so ugly that anyone who wants to wash his money can create this kind of "art" himself or let his Chihuahua let walk over a canvas, then invent some "anonymous" artist with a mysterious touch and some dramatic or insane rumors in his recent past and no one will doubt his genius. Entire hudge fund elites buy constantly "art" from the same anonymous legendary painter with unimaginable childhood trauma which he brings to canvas as some sort of therapy. But I believe you know that already.

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    Post  billybatts91 25/01/23, 12:09 am

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    Post  famschopman 25/01/23, 12:12 am

    The only thing Russia should do is fortify the current positions to continue attrition based warfare, increase production of artillery systems, ammunition and get more Orion type drones in the air taking out armor with missiles while under cover of Russian AD. Much cheaper then cruise missiles and impossible for tanks to make significant ground.

    Then, wait … closer … wait … waaaaiiiit … fir… waaaaiiit …. fire 🚀…. 🔥

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    Post  ALAMO 25/01/23, 12:16 am

    Reaching Dnepr at all flow would be much helpful in that Laughing

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    Post  Arrow 25/01/23, 12:32 am

    The Pentagon aims to increase the production of artillery shells by 500% within two years, bringing the production of conventional ammunition to levels not seen since the Korean War, writes The New York Times. The military department is investing billions of dollars to make up for the shortage of ammunition caused by the fighting in Ukraine and to stockpile for future conflicts. These moves, which include expanding factories and attracting new manufacturers, are part of "the most aggressive effort to modernize the US defense industrial base in nearly 40 years," the newspaper notes. Prior to the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the US produced 14,400 unguided rockets per month, which was enough for the American army. After the start of deliveries of howitzers and shells to them in Ukraine, the production of shells tripled in September, and then doubled again in January. As a result, suppliers were able to produce more than 90 thousand artillery shells per month. wrote:
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    Post  Werewolf 25/01/23, 12:53 am

    As a result, suppliers were able to produce more than 90 thousand artillery shells per month. wrote:
    It is no doubt that the US is the only behemoth MIC in the West and in the entire world besides Russia, China and North Korea (Land forces/artillery manufactoring).

    90.000x5*12= 5,4 mln artillery rounds annually. It is a serious amount and physically the bulk for the entire NATO. That creates issues for both sides. We know, the US won't pay all of them but force the spenditure of NATO members to pay for that while doubling its GDP gained by MIC sector. The issue for Russia is as the entire MIC is untouchable on US soil (mostly) thus it will come to escalation of PONOS countries being the receiving end.

    Can someone recall the peaks of Russia or even Soviet Union in the 80's during Afghanistan war almost a million a month if I recall correctly in 84'.

    I believe someone posted a figure for current artillery production rates.

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    Post  ALAMO 25/01/23, 12:59 am

    Some 500-700k a month in one factory only Laughing

    This Doneck based one is cited to have 300k a month.

    And both are a fraction of places where Russkie can produce ammo NOW.

    Not "in two years".

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    Post  kvs 25/01/23, 01:05 am

    @Firebird

    Even if NATzO is trying to bait Russia into Poland and whatnot, it is going to fail. Russia has no interest in pacifying former Warsaw Pact
    lunatic states. Let Washington wipe their dirty asses.

    It looks like the cunning plan for NATzO is to move into western Ukraine using Polish forces, with some support. The US is sending 700
    Abrams tanks to Poland and I agree with The Duran analysis that it is possible that all the Leopard prattle is for a NATzO force and not
    for the Kiev regime army in the east. So we are looking at around 1000 tanks which is substantial for a NATzO force with trained operators
    and other necessary resources.

    So I believe that there will be a rush for Odessa at some stage in the first half of this year. NATzO does not want Russia to cut off rump
    Ukria from the Black Sea. It does not want Russia to reconnect with Transnistria and become a Danube Treaty state.

    It is now apparent that NATzO has written off Elensky's regime and is staging the purge to have a government that accepts partition.
    Elensky's regime was delusional about keep all of Lenin's and Khruschev's gifted territory.

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    Post  flamming_python 25/01/23, 01:13 am

    zorobabel wrote:

    lol

    Didn't take long. Cucks will be cucks I guess Rolling Eyes

    Unlikely Putin would have done so by now otherwise, but an unwillingness to deploy more troops in large numbers does suggest, Russia had no plans to take all of Ukraine which would be a massive mistake but hey, that's their call.

    With their current numbers they will not be able to reach Odessa for example and if you fail to take Odessa then you wasted a golden opportunity you will not get a second chance at and it would be a massive mistake

    Why would he have done so by now?

    The previous mobilization was carried out from the end of September.
    If we assume that those mobilized men won't be kept for more than half a year give or take (which is a somewhat generous assumption I will admit, but fits in with the MoDs 6-month contracts and the Wagner duration of service for convict volunteers too), then the next wave of mobilization will be on track to take place next month, if we assume that mobilized men will have to refreshed and trained for at least a month before replacing the ones going home (and most will have to be trained for longer).

    That's pretty much what I assumed will happen all along
    The only point against this is that Putin about a month ago cast cold water on the idea of extra mobilizations.

    In which I'm guessing that the plan is to finish this war within the next few months. Maybe agreeing to split the Ukraine with NATO.
    This fits into all these rumours of a Russian grand offensive, and with what's going on now in Zelensky's government - with all these resignations and cloak & dagger maneuvering.

    But equally it may be that Putin simply hoped that NATO won't escalate again, but now that it's making clear that it will, he will order more mobilization waves as needed.
    I don't see total mobilization taking place though. Because the Russian govt. is mindful of the home front and the need for a functioning civilian economy and stabilization of living standards, batting price inflation of goods, etc...
    If the home front and economy holds, Russia can outlast NATO involvement or willingness for involvement in this war.

    Who said it was sound foreign policy. 8 trillion IS a joke when you are spending other peoples money to enrich your MIC. Don't you get it? Its OUR money they are spending. They could afford to lose in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria AND Ukraine. Its not existential to them. Are they fucking themselves in the longer run? Very likely. They have never been ones to think to far ahead as the extent of their strategic thinking is one presidential term. They are like a heavily armed child. I don't mind and evolution in the global order, but a US collapse may be bad for everyone so be careful what you wish for. I would prefer a gradual evolution where others rise up and the US becomes more insular and of course the death of the Neocons and "American exceptionalism" would be a breath of fresh air. Chaos is bad for everyone.

    I think everyone would have preferred an evolution of America, and an evolution in the global order, and everyone with a clue had high hopes for Trump to make it happen.
    But that's not what happened. Trump is the Gorbachev that was put in house arrest and then removed from office by the hardliners in 1991. While this war is one they did everything to engineer themselves, and once it broke out, put absolutely everything on the line for it. And so this is where and how they will be defeated, and it won't be pretty. Whether the US itself literally collapses as a country like the USSR did though - I doubt it.

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    Post  ALAMO 25/01/23, 01:33 am

    Just a reminder. Putin called for the partion of Ukr multiple times. He sees no point on taking the western part.

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    Post  Isos 25/01/23, 01:36 am

    So that's roughly 20 leo 2 and 20 Abrams. So much drama for that ?

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    Post  Arkanghelsk 25/01/23, 01:49 am

    I disagree with KVS

    Article V, would not apply to NATO in Ukraine

    As long as they are in Ukraine, they are fair game

    It's the perfect place to fight NATO, a 3rd territory where the exchange of ground would not invite nuclear retaliation, and where casualties would not either as Article V would not apply to Ukraine

    It would be strictly conventional, and without air power, NATO will be fighting at a disadvantage

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    Post  zorobabel 25/01/23, 01:55 am

    So that's roughly 20 leo 2 and 20 Abrams. So much drama for that ?
    It looks like most countries that have Leopards (except Finland) are going to supply a dozen or so. The Netherlands, for example, has 18 leased from Germany and announced they want to buy them and pass them on to Ukraine.

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    Post  Hole 25/01/23, 02:25 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Fnq3e110
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Is210
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Is410

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    Post  Lapain 25/01/23, 02:28 am

    It looks like most countries that have Leopards (except Finland) are going to supply a dozen or so. The Netherlands, for example, has 18 leased from Germany and announced they want to buy them and pass them on to Ukraine.

    Most countries meaning those that can afford to do it, or stupid enough to do so. Those being mostly Poland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Denmark, probably Sweden and Canada. We can forget about Spain, Turkey and by de facto Greece.

    Probably a force of 200 L2s may be assembled by spring 2023, maybe more. Nothing that the allied forces should be real afraid of. Ukrying needs at least 500 MBTs to make a difference, while it can easily do that with the ragtag forces it currently has left, it would basically amount to a redux of the battle of Kursk where German wunderwaffen broke their teeth facing the reality of the frontlines.

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    flamming_python
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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

    Post  flamming_python 25/01/23, 02:49 am

    Just a reminder. Putin called for the partion of Ukr multiple times. He sees no point on taking the western part.

    He may have hinted at it or called for it, but there is no guarantee that this is what he'll get.

    Why, in fact, would Poland want some Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk and the rest of these places as part of Poland? To have more Ukrainian nationalists within its borders?

    If NATO sends an expeditionary force to West Ukraine, then I can only imagine that they are going for a very temporary armistice at most, to arm up and train a new Ukrainian army, that will be sent on the offensive yet again.
    This is why the massive shipment amount of hardware that has been announced, even transferring active-duty NATO equipment. It's an emergency measure, meant to re-equip the Ukrainians as quickly as possible while securing a buffer-zone that Russia can't cross into, but that possibly where missiles and aircraft can fly out from against it, and on the background of all this NATO defense industries will re-equipping their own armies.

    And this is also why the US, Poland are preparing allegedly, to enter with their own forces - to ward off Russia spoiling these plans. If there was a plan for the permanent partition of the Ukraine with tacit acquiescence by both sides, then all these measures will not be necessary, nor the resistance of Germany's political and military class over sending its Leo 2s, nor Milley's recent provocative statements about the need to militarily defeat Russia, and so on.
    Then there is the issue of Romania preparing to participate in these plans too. Romania is not next to Western Ukraine, it's next to Odessa. Allowing NATO to take Odessa means the encirclement of Pridnestrovie and the Russian garrison there. Also unacceptable.

    Russia would have to be incredibly foolish to run this risk and allow these plans to be implemented, not unless NATO is very transparent with it and provides it all necessary guarantees that it's ready to freeze the conflict for good. Russia for sure doesn't need Western Ukraine, but it needs even less for it to be used a place d'armes against it.
    I hope Putin has not been sliding back into wishful thinking, when he said that no more mobilization is needed.


    Last edited by flamming_python on 25/01/23, 02:57 am; edited 1 time in total
    thegopnik
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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

    Post  thegopnik 25/01/23, 02:56 am

    Seems accurate.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 16745910

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    DerWolf


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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

    Post  DerWolf 25/01/23, 03:00 am

    It seems Zaporizhya front started well but now its pace stalled, or the big offensive in this part havent started yet. Meanwhile Bakhmut seems to about to fall. The fall of Bakhmut will have a psychological effect for AFU.

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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37 - Page 4 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

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