A reformed doomer wrote:To expound further:
A competent US leadership would have made sure that Erdogan was eliminated back in 2015 during the coup
They didn't count on Russian intelligence warning Erdo. So yup.
They would have also never antagonize China by allowing Trump into office,
They were so sure of their control over mass-media and their ability to manipulate the electoral process that they got blind-sided by him. So yup too.
And even after that mistake, they should have gone into North Korea before nuclear weapons appeared there - now they have a South Korea which they cannot even use as fodder at this point
Any war there will be a disaster, one that will ransack South Korea's economy which is of far greater value to the US on-side than any North Korea, conquered or unconquered.
They would also have escalated against Russia in Syria preventing a Russian presence in the Mediterranean ,
They did escalate against Russia over Syria, even before Russia actually turned up there in person. By orchestrating the Maidan in the Ukraine
and have let Israel annex beyond the Golan Heights
Wouldn't have ultimately made any difference, just given an extra diplomatic headache to the US
They would have not left Afghanistan and strengthened logistics to arm Kazakh and Uzbek insurgencies - removing Russian presence from there
If they hadn't left Afghanistan, Moscow would be providing the Taliban with satellite data and electronic intelligence by now, at the minimum, to take out as many NATO forces there as possible. Probably no weapons though.. Moscow will not want to set up future problems for itself and its allies in the region.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would have survived against any insurgency with Moscow's backing. All the US would have done with such decisions would be to push them into Moscow's embrace for good.
Going back to 08, Bush should have put those heavy sanctions on Russia since then, to allow the Obama administration to increase the economic pressure gradually, instead of allowing Russia to have substituted its imports, and strengthen its foreign reserves - unimpeded , then at least a color revolution would have been more plausible instead of Navalny ending up in prison, and essentially enabling an exodus of the pro US liberal base
Yup
Although how could they predicted the future development of relations. A lot of other things happened between then and now as well.
More realistically they could have put the heaviest sanctions on right in 2014. That's where they really dropped the ball. They were so sure that Russia is 'a gas station masquerading as a country' though, that they thought those measures were sufficient to ferment revolution or destabilization in Russia.
A competent US leadership would also have overthrown Lukashenko when they had the chance , and tightened a real noose around Russia
They tried, but he came out packin'
It was a good effort on their part though. Nearly worked. Just slipped up a bit near the finish line. So not gonna deduct them points for that.
What they now have is a cucked Finland which will not enter NATO , unless they boot Turkey (which is a much greater problem for the US),
You're probably right on this one
they have a Belarus which has over 100,000 Union State forces, they have Ukraine , essentially undergoing a slow russification/denazification process,
I wouldn't put all your Belarussian eggs in one basket, even if Lukashenko did survive. The fundamental problem there is the same as it was in pre-Maidan Ukraine. They have too many brainwashed youth. And this is the segment of the population that is most active. The anti-Russian forces in the country, while they may be a minority, are far more organized and motivated than the latent pro-Russian part of the population. There are also enough opportunists there who don't care either way. Fortunately they don't have an equivalent as such to Western Ukrainians.. rather Belarussians who work in Poland, Germany, etc.. who have more sympathy to their paymasters than to Russia. But it's a weaker relationship than what the Western Ukrainians have with Bandera.
Provided the status quo reigns, they will remain stable as society at large has sobered up since 2020; when they weren't as much aware of the machinations going on behind the scenes, people of all stripes just wanted to get rid of Lukashenko.
However if they join the war in any capacity then expect these social divisions to rapidly start getting ramped up again and attempts at destabilization to become manifest.
they have allowed Russia to enter Nagornoh Karabakh and gain leverage over Armenia and Azeris, they abandoned Georgia to the point that Salome kisses Russian dick, they allowed Russia to put boots into Kazakhstan establishing a precedent for Russian intervention in central asia, and they have allowed Iran to straddle Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Gulf by vacating the region
In Armenia Russia is gradually losing its positions. This is kind of inevitable, and through mostly its own mistakes.
The Armenians have elected Pashinyan twice in a row by now
Russia has sold arms to their enemies Azerbaijan in the inter-war years. And recently has failed to even make a protest when Azerbaijan launched some strikes on Armenian territory proper.
Meanwhile Azerbaijan's ally, Turkey, is slowly distancing itself from NATO, and the same NATO is increasingly condemning Azerbaijan. NATO is interested in surrounding Turkey. The French are offering the Armenians to come in there with their own forces.. and at this stage Moscow can either chose to sit still while its forces are spied on there and the agreements it brokered are undermined - or leave. And Azerbaijan is no friend of Russia either, it remains to be seen if it will do Russia any favors to keep it there on account of it preferring them over the French.
If I go further, Barkhane was a failure, instead of US elites shoring their positions in Libya and Africa, they turned it over to the Wagner group- and the only thing they did was bitch and moan labeling wagner a terror group
They destroyed Gaddaffi and any threat Libya can possibly pose.
They didn't have an after-action plan. But who says they cared enough for one anyway.
As for the Wagner presence in Africa, its a growing pain for France and by extension Europe, but it's still at the level of an inconvenience only.
Don't let me begin with China, losing Hong Kong has given them the upper hand in Taiwan -
Hong Kong still has plenty of Soros-educated retards loyal to the Crown, as China found out in recent years.
Britain gave it up back in 1997 or when was it, but they gained plenty of money from investments in China since. So I'd say it was the correct decision on their part.
But ineptitude and incompetence is what led to revival of Greater Russia and judging from what is happening in China now..
They have much bigger problems surfacing
I actually don't think they will get the opportunity to ever challenge China- the ship sailed February 2022 when they blinked
Pretty much
As much as they said they warned Zelensky , they only warned him about the presence of Russian units, but they never predicted that Russia would actually go in
Had they done so, they wouldn't have been scrambling to empty NATO stocks in 2023
It actually appears they were unprepared for war, despite all the MAXAR pictures
That's still unclear, but I'd say they planned for both eventualities. Russia going in, and Russia chickening out. Either way a win-win, as the former would end with Russia's economy collapsing.
Turns out their core assumptions were false though, Russia managed to spin the trap they laid back on them
The US, in regards to Russia over the last 10-15 years, has behaved like some generic action movie big baddie. Sending one goon after the next to deal with Russia, hatching some elaborate schemes against them, but with everything failing and then eventually deciding that they will have to deal with Russia themselves. By which time of course Russia would already have the necessary lessons learned and defenses set up.
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