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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:41 pm

    My highlight    

    Theatre 1: Artemovsk-Soledar-Seversk
       Hence, Surovikin’s withdrawals, evening-out of the frontlines and the creation of a perfect firebag to destroy the enemy manpower. Artemovsk (Bakhmut). It is the most unfavourable place for Ukraine to fight. And still, Ukraine tries to defend it with everything it has, for political reasons. Otherwise, the Western public support break.

       Russia has short supply lines, air superiority, a friendly population and favourable positions for shelling there. One could say that the Ukrainian army is being buried in Artemovsk. There are already tens of thousands of dead and perhaps the double number of wounded. One needs to keep in mind that wounded soldiers are an even larger burden to a nation then the dead, during the time of war.

       From my point of view, and as described in former analysis, Russia could have taken Artemovsk before. But there is a certain time, when it needs to be taken, to keep the stone rolling. The Russian reserves are being currently prepared for the offensive. Artemovsk mustn’t fall, before they are ready. Moreover, Artemovsk needs to kill as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible before the offensive starts.

       Which means in turn, that it doesn’t make any sense to take it, as long as the enemy is able to feed in troops. When the enemy starts having problems to feed in further troops, by drawing them from other important frontlines, then Ukraine is ready for the other offensive operations.

       So, the requirements, that are needed to trigger the storming of Artemovsk are:

       1. Waiting for the stream pushed in troops to end.
       2. The other offensive formations of the Russian army need to be in place.

       I assume this moment could be reached in February. When exactly? I don’t know. We will see.

       Theatre 2: Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk
       As soon as these offensive starts, I assume, that the Ukrainian defences will start to collapse, since most Ukrainian troops will be already dead or wounded. At this point the Russian army will most likely move in from Kupiansk to Izyum from the north and occupy favourable positions north and maybe even west of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

       Depending on the state of resistance of the Ukrainian army there will either be a direct storming from the Artemovsk and Slovyansk grouping of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk or there will be a siege. There is no need to sacrifice troops for quick wins, since there will be more fronts, to trigger the Ukrainian collapse.

       Theatre 3
       Maybe simultaneously there will be a push to Ugledar and the surrounding villages from the south, to put additional pressure on the Ukrainian supply lines. Both, in material and people.

       Theatre 4
       As you see in my map, the theater “4” is a pretty long one.
       For the time being, as I write this article, I don’t see any physical possibility, to conduct any large-scale offensive from Belarus into Ukraine. There are neither enough equipment nor the needed logistics in place. So, big arrows from Belarus are currently physically impossible.

       What I assume indeed, is the following. We will see locally, not everywhere where I put a number 4 on it, but at certain places (I don’t know where) small incursions, to pin and bind the enemy at the close proximity of the border. To engage as many as possible troops, equipment and logistical effort in the north. At the same time, I assume, that we could start experiencing the start of a Russian air campaign on targets across the northern border of Ukraine.

       Since most air defences are currently concentrated around the critical infrastructure or already depleted, we will most likely see the new role of General Surovikin. Hammering and degrading Ukrainian resources in the north. And Ukraine will need to replace them constantly, to not open the door to Kiev.
       At the same time, we could maybe see the accumulation of troops and equipment in Belarus.

    https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28784

       This could go on maybe until the start of the summer 2023.

       Here we have the same situation as in Artemovsk. As soon as the supply of troops and equipment starts ebbing down in the north, Russia can assume, that the time can be right to secure Kiev.
       Requirements for a move on Kiev:

       Complete collapse of the Donbass front.
       Complete Collapse of the northern front.

       Depending on how the political situation will be then, we could see here already a full surrender or only the moving in of Russian troops to a close proximity of Kiev. Maybe even already the start of the surrounding of Kiev.

       Theatre 5
       Either simultaneously with Theatre 4 or after the moving on Kiev (surrounding or prepositioning north, west and east of Kiev), we could see the opening of a fifth frontline in the south. The target would be to reach Zaporozhye city. Again, with the goal, to overstretch the Ukrainian resources and logistics.
       Again, I’m sure, Russia’s goal is to trigger a collapse, to not being forced to fight for every village up to Lvov.

       After these five “phases” or theaters, I assume, that we will see the collapse of Ukraine. Which will either result in a surrender, or we could simply see a drive-through of Russian forces to their desired future borders by bypassing last resistance nests. Which will need to surrender anyways after a certain time, when they get encircled far behind NATO borders.

       By applying this strategy, Russia can inflict maximum damage to the Ukrainian army while sparing the own soldiers lives and the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure of big Russian cities (Odessa etc.). Which the ultimate Russian goal is.

       Depending on the degree of resistance and Western escalation, we could see a surrender of Kiev the earliest in Summer 2023. The latest? This is impossible to say. If Russia needs to drive through Ukraine, encircling big cities and force them without violence to surrender, this could drag on for another two years. How knows?

       And of course, there is still the question of manpower. As in my analysis of phase 3 described, Russia would need to mobilise further troops, if being forced to take Ukraine without their surrender. Not for the fighting itself, but simply for occupation and securing rear areas (counter insurgency etc.), of this large country.
       Arms deliveries and Scorched Earth

       There are ever more reports of deliveries of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as artillery to Ukraine by NATO. Of course, there are.

       Of course, we will go through all escalation steps in terms of arms deliveries, until this war concludes.

       The West is following a strategy of scorched earth in Ukraine. It is absolutely clear to everyone, that it is only a question of time, when Ukraine will fall as a whole. All are aware that this will most likely happen this year. So, the task is, to inflict as much comprehensive and sustainable damage to Russia as possible during the process. With a huge success of course. See my article about that here.

       Ukraine, or the biggest parts of it, will be part of Russia again. Some parts might go to Poland, Hungary and Romania by agreement with Russia. And some part will maybe be released into pseudo independence after being denazifyed and demilitarised. But in fact, Russia is killing currently “en mass” its future citizens and the base for further development. Of course, the Ukrainian soldiers of today will be Russian soldiers of tomorrow, as well. And as more infrastructure is damaged as more Russia will need to invest to rebuild. At least in parts, that will go to Russia.

       Therefore, it needs to be ensured, by NATO, that the whole male able-bodied potential will be used, to fight Russia. In the best case everyone dies. Remember, these are future Russian citizens and soldiers. That’s why the West will never ever negotiate an end. Russia by the way won’t do it as well, since all of Ukraine will be captured, denazifyed and demilitarised. Except maybe the parts, that will go to other states under a mutual agreement.

    https://t.me/Slavyangrad/28785

    Well, as far as I am aware off, Ukraine ran out of heavy weapons. And it won’t be able to further keep up the fight, without heavy weapons. First, physically, second morally. If the Ukrainians could only throw their bodies against Russian tanks, then there would be a mass surrender.

    One would think, these western supplied tanks will be needed for offensive operations. But no-one thinks about offensives anymore. It is more, to preposition these tanks etc. on positions, where Russian offensives will be expected. To prepare ambushes and fire traps for the incoming Russian troops. Similar to what happened in phase 1. The West will supply in any phase, as long as human potential exists, to react to the challenges of the given time/phase/theater.

    Conclusion
    As of now, Ukraine lost the war. I would say, the day the defensive line in Soledar breached and the new command structure was announced, is the day, Ukraine lost the war officially. Now we need to go through the mop up, which will bring, unfortunately for both sides, horrendous losses in human lives and equipment.

    Unfortunately, fascist regimes, or their non-fascist backers tend to sacrifice their whole population before the world can back peace.

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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Jan 14, 2023 4:57 pm

    Lieutenant general Evgeny Nikiforov is a new commander of WMD ( Western military district).

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    Post  AMCXXL Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:09 pm

    Regular wrote:

    This is very passive gay LIBERAL behaviour. Ukraine is basically where it is because of people like him - he didn’t worry when people in Donbas were killed, then when his own are dropping - he even mocks them. Instead of wanking next to his PC he could maybe do civilian duty and help his own countrymen.
    Anatoly Shariy hates Zelensky and current gov, but he helps with food, medicines, generators for Ukrainians, especially the old ones. They are fucked when electricity goes down. He doesn’t touch military things, but does something productive.

    That this blogger is gay or not is indifferent and it is not the question

    My point is about the type of people that the Zelensky regime sends to die like cannon fodder, obviously with a low IQ and little cultural level, probably the two that appear in the video are drugged, nothing strange, drugging the soldiers did the nazis and before that in the first world war they gave them amounts of alcohol

    What is most surprising is that this type of people does not even have a survival instinct, people with a minimum of intelligence left Ukraine a long time ago as suggested the blogger in the video

    I saw a video of the Azov surrounded in Mariupol and they accepted between laughs and techno music that they were going to die

    The brainwashing and zombification, especially in these last 8 years, has been brutal. In 2014 people refused to fight and even went over to the other side, the generals were deposed for not obeying and people had to be brought to Donbass from the other end. from Ukraine


    And this leaves another question that is even more worrying: what can a normal person do in this situation apart from saving himself?

    People voted for Zelensky because he promised to end the war in a week, but obviously we live in a false "democracy".
    "Democracy" is by definition a fallacy and cprrupt system that leads to dystopias like the one Ukraine is experiencing today.

    A small group of people with a lot of power can take over a country and destroy it along with its population.

    Any war is a fight between the ruling class of two countries, ordinary people have nothing to do with it, they are only deceived with ideology to die on the front

    It is clear that the Russians are fighting for their survival as society, since if they lose something worse than Yugoslavia in the 90s would happen to them and they could disappear as a civilization in mid term
    But the Ukrainians are dying to fill the pockets of Porochenko, Kolomoisky Akhmetov... and the rotten Deep State of Washington DC

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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:31 pm

    Both Ukrainian guys in the video are probably from village or a small town, as they speak Surzhyk, which is unlikely to hear among more educated or urban population. It is not excluded that first guy is heavily drugged, since he can barely talk.
    I don't see a point in goading people like this, but this is, by far, not the worst thing we saw in this war.

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:40 pm

    "It is not excluded that first guy is heavily drugged, since he can barely talk. "

    Hypothermia due to cold or lack of enough calories in food?

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:42 pm

    Multiple cases have already been reported, so wouldn't be much surprised...

    Edit : a third wave is en route, with smokes&destruction all over 404 ... Damn Russkie are so much determined to run out of missiles....

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    Post  flamming_python Sat Jan 14, 2023 5:47 pm

    There's some turmoil in Stavka. It's still not 100% clear that Teplinsky is really out of the picture, but everything points to that. Why would you change him after only 6 months, while he was getting acknowledgement for his work?
    He was a protegee of Lapin, and we know what happened to him. Not to mention that Teplinsky, originally, comes from VDV and that he was ideal for this position.
    It seems like there is some internal conflict at the top of the Army. I am still of the opinion that Surovikin's new position is, practically, a demotion.

    You mean he was promoted to the Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces too?

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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:04 pm

    No, it looks like he is on administrative leave. As for Lapin, what was done to him is despicable and I don't think anyone normal can approve of it. He was made into a scapegoat for Kharkov fiasco, while WMD is on a 4th commander in less than a year.
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    Post  Hole Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:29 pm

    Almost 490,000 Ukrainians reach military age every year. 
    That was before the war. Now the number is much smaller.
    And even if true it doesn´t mean that you can get 490.000 new frontline soldiers out of it.

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:55 pm

    Every day that takes longer this war means increasing production in NATO countries more. Since Ukraine can hardly produce almost, hardly repairing, NATO will switch to full production and produce for the Nazi Land.

    Every day of longer, the position of Russia deteriorates and lets his in front of the production melt. The sleeping countries of NATO also wakes up to start war production again.

    The war will soon end with the full use of Ukraine. Russia cannot afford a war of wear and tear. Especially since the West is now starting to deliver more and more. The Ukraiische Manpower must be removed from the game. Now!

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:24 pm

    Sprintero
    @Sprinter20000

    Russian forces carried out a series of airstrikes on the territory of Ukraine‼

    ➡According to Ukrainian sources, this is one of the fiercest attacks since the beginning of the conflict. Cruise missiles from Tu-95 strategic bombers were fired at Ukrainian critical infrastructure

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36 - Page 11 FmcdnoBWAAEzDZV?format=jpg&name=medium

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:30 pm

    ... gifts are still falling ...
    All day long.

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:38 pm

    The reason Putin and Wagner boss went to St Petersburg?

    Dagny Taggart
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    Delegation of the Central African Republic headed by the Prime Minister of the country went on a working visit to St. Petersburg - Embassy of the Russian Federation

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:44 pm

    Laughing Laughing Laughing
    Sprintero
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    New minister of energy Ukraine and his deputy

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36 - Page 11 FmccjXTWYAAc2oX?format=jpg&name=small

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    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:49 pm

    Wayward missile in Moldova again

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    The first shots from the place where the rocket fragments fell in Moldova

    Not far from the border with Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Moldova published footage of the wreckage of a rocket.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36 - Page 11 FmcbiJaXEAE_RUt?format=jpg&name=small

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    Post  Broski Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:56 pm

    The first shots from the place where the rocket fragments fell in Moldova

    Not far from the border with Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Moldova published footage of the wreckage of a rocket
    Fortunately, no Polish tractors were nearby to get hit.

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    Post  PhSt Sat Jan 14, 2023 7:57 pm

    Every day that takes longer this war means increasing production in NATO countries more. Since Ukraine can hardly produce almost, hardly repairing, NATO will switch to full production and produce for the Nazi Land.

    Every day of longer, the position of Russia deteriorates and lets his in front of the production melt. The sleeping countries of NATO also wakes up to start war production again.

    The US, EU and the rest of NATzO are not manufacturing powerhouse like China, there is no such as sleeping NATzO countries, continued support to PUkraine will only drain their resources which will lead to further decline which is a good thing for the rest of the non-NATzO world.

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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:01 pm


    Hopefully they will target powerplant turbines this time instead of transformers and grid

    It's starting to look like they are pussyfooting again, no matter what they do power is back in several hours

    Do it right or don't do it at all



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    Post  PhSt Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:07 pm

    Hopefully they will target powerplant turbines this time instead of transformers and grid

    It seems initially the hesitation to hit these infrastructures stems from the belief that PUkraine will be liberated sooner, therefore more useful infrastructures can be seized intact. But now that NATzO NAZIs have entrenched themselves deep in PUkraine, everything needs to be razed to the ground! attack

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    Post  Rasisuki Nebia Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:11 pm

    Speaking of which...

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    Post  Isos Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:13 pm

    Hopefully they will target powerplant turbines this time instead of transformers and grid

    It's starting to look like they are pussyfooting again, no matter what they do power is back in several hours

    Do it right or don't do it at all

    Harder to rebuild.

    Their goal isn't to destroy ukrainian civilian infrastructure because they still keep as an option annexation of all Ukraine. It would be very expensive and hard to rebuild. Transformers can be produced easily. Power plants not so easily.

    They targeted power to impact ukrainian military activities like train transport. They can just keep destroying the transformers with their cheap Geran drones.
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    Post  PhSt Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:13 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36 - Page 11 11215410

    Looks like turbines are getting smashed. This is a good first step, all of NATzO Pukraine needs to be obliterated. Destroy their power, destroy their water, food, and shelter and make them realize the cost of prostituting themselves to NATzO attack

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    Post  PhSt Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:16 pm

    Harder to rebuild.

    Yes this is unfortunate but if it means imposing more cost and misery to he NATzO NAZIs then its all worth the destruction.

    Besides, the bigger reconstruction projects, the more it is favorable to Russian construction companies after all of Pukraine and Baltics have been liberated russia

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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:25 pm

     Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Today at 4:55 pm


    Every day of longer, the position of Russia deteriorates and lets his in front of the production melt. The sleeping countries of NATO also wakes up to start war production again.




    Bro, you are starting to get on my nerves slowly...
    I CAN'T STAND people who write one thing today and completely different tomorrow..
    I dont give a **** for kindness if someone is already talking nonsense - you crying ****  !
    Ukraine lost over a quarter of its population which has already gone in the direction of Russia; over 2 million in Crimea, almost 3 million refugees in Russia and over 6 million in liberated areas...
    Not to mention how many more inhabitants left the country and went in the direction of the West.
    In the first place, the West does not have the POPULATION to go to war, if you understand me. Russia was preparing for a long war and that war will last - for a very long time.
    Given that you are probably not Orthodox, and I am exactly that, don't judge a mentality you don't know - persistence is a miracle among us Orthodox. An idiot from the forum (YOU) cannot know the situation better than the Russian state, which has the most glorious military history in the last 300 years.

    And as far as western weapons are concerned, I will write to you that western weapons are garbage, because if they were not, they would have been on the territory of Ukroshitstan a long time ago.
    And a MAVERICK with an outdated aircraft shoots down a few Su-57s, if you understand me. Everything works great on film and only on film..

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Jan 14, 2023 8:40 pm

    Has more to do with western industrial capabilities

    The west cannot snap fingers and wish the manufacturing industry back into place

    It lacks the production facilities for electronic equipment, it is dependent on supply chains which are overseas and in enemy states, it does not have qualified personnel which have the technical know-how to ramp up production of military and civilian equipment

    So the longer the war goes, the better it is for Russia

    It is a misconception to say the west will begin producing new equipment.

    The west will send it's OWN equipment , and run into shortages of its own armies, due to inability to replace the volume of losses -

    Now they just started to send heavy tanks, but if the trend continues positively, a large demilitarization can occur of western stocks of vehicles and weaponry

    But the west will not obtain a robust industry anytime soon- it would require an ideological change in the society away from capitalism towards more mixed market theory

    Because their companies would never produce equipment for low profit margins - they offshore everything for profit

    So unless their government And enterprises ignore profits at the expense of their sovereignty - then we can say the situation will remain more or less the same for the foreseeable future-

    Some countries like France have some degree of independence and are not so dependent on imports, but even they cannot increase production - They barely have enough for themselves

    GarryB, d_taddei2, zardof, Lapain, Hole, owais.usmani, Kiko and Broski like this post


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