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    Russian population and demographics #2

    ludovicense
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    Post  ludovicense Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:13 pm

    You have to take into account in these numbers the people who are going to live the immigrants who come to Russia.... Ukrainians alone form almost 3 million.
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    Post  caveat emptor Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:13 pm

    They were, officially, not part of last year's statistics.
    They'll account them from this year, most likely.
    Not that it will bump natality rate much higher. It is relatively older population and a lot of younger men got killed during last, almost 9 years, of fighting. It will be interesting if younger population that left the country in 2022 will start to come back. So far, number of Russians in Serbia, at the end of 2022 was still rising, even if it was a much slower rise.
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    Post  ALAMO Fri Feb 17, 2023 10:57 pm

    You have missed one crucial point in the whole story.
    No matter how bad the stats are for Russia, those are much worse for all of Europe.
    And de facto for the US either, as the growth is close to zero for the last couple of years, and driven by the Spanish population.
    The US is becoming a Latino country, steadily.

    Russia at the moment surpassed the 150mln number for sure.
    The fact that it immigration driven is relevant, yet not critical.

    Russia is a social welfare country settled to resolve problems of its citizens.
    No matter how nonconforming that might sound.

    They have free education, healthcare, multiple social benefits, fully paid holidays, and quite an effective pensionary system that is applied for the age much lower than in Europe.
    People living in shitholes like Murica have a serious mental issue absorbing those facts.
    Yes.
    Free education and healthcare are available to all citizens. No, there is no "insurance limit" in the Russian healthcare system, every citizen will be treated with all available known procedures. Until he recovers or dies.  

    The number of kids is a factor of multiple different elements, social being only one of them.
    Another very important factor is cultural.
    Russia is targeting traditional values for a very long time. Families where ea dad is a dad, and a mom is a mom. Not "parent 1/2".

    Objectively speaking, they do much more for increasing the fertility rate than any other European country.
    I won't even discuss the Murica example, as we shouldn't take a shitholes as an example.

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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:02 am

    Actually, since 2014, Russian natality collapsed by a third and, at the moment, it is very close to your own country's. I didn't say that Europe has high natality. France has decent birth rate due to vast immigrant populations and benefit system.
    Highest birth rate in US is among white Protestant communities in Bible Belt. High Latino birth rate is true only in first generation. US born Latino population has a below substitution birth rate, as well.
    As for US, i see that you have some preconceived half-truths that are very prevalent on the internet. Situation varies a lot between different US states. Generally, lower middle class will be in hardest situation of all in US when it comes to health insurance. It is not easy to understand US unless you live here, as system has many nuances.
    I lived in two EU countries ( Germany and Netherlands) and Canada, before coming to US and I agree that it is not everyones cup of tea. Still, there has to be a reason why so many people from relatively wealthy countries come here, right? 😉

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:07 am

    I know only two persons who emigrated to the US.
    In the last 30 years.
    In both cases, they already had a family ties there - people who emigrated back in the 70s.
    And - suprice suprice - one will surely not contribute being a lesbian Laughing while the other prefers dogs over kids Laughing Laughing Laughing and that seems terminal stadium.
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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:17 am

    Weird, as I've met many Polish born people when I lived in NYC that came to the country in the 90's. They have big communities in Ridgewood in Queens and Green Point in Brooklyn. Where i live now, there're not many, but they are mostly very educated, working high paid jobs. I'm talking about Polish born and not what they call here Polish Americans.
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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:20 am

    I'm not trying to hype US, but fact is that pay in EU is nothing special and it is probably lower in real terms than 20 years ago. And Europe is becoming hard for business, as well.
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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:25 am

    I will give you a hint Laughing
    90s are 30 years ago.
    Yes, yes, I know, it was only yesterday Laughing Wink
    I guess there was some wave of migration in the early 90s, when the system changed and people were struggling anyway. scratch
    But I don't know a single example.
    Maybe it is not my generation or something.
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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:32 am

    Of course. As I said, only people that make high income will come. Others will choose to stay in Poland or try in EU. One example that i know of, is a Polish couple that moved from Ireland, due to work situation . But again, software engineer and CPA. Not your average immigrants.
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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:43 am

    Remember that there was a serious strike in both Ireland and Iceland in the 10s.
    Tons of people probably reconsidered the place for living.
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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:55 am

    Husband got a great offer and wife works for EY and it was easy for her to find job in US. Remember that Ireland is sort of offshore zone and there are tons of US companies European HQs there.
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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:44 am

    Yup, my buddy was working for Microsoft when lived there.
    But repatriated after the 2008 crisis.
    The grass stopped to look greener when inspected closer.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:14 am

    At least Russia is trying to do something to help natality rate.

    Hopefully this will bring some positive effect in the near future

    Here in Germany also there are some monthly contributions for children (independent from the parents' salaries and up to 18 years old). In addition nurseries albeit difficult to get a place in) are almost totally subsidized by the state and parents have only to pay a minimum amount.
    (P.S. schools and universities are almost free).

    There are also good parental leave laws (for both father and mothers).

    However this has not particularly changed the natality rate, but at least gives some possibilities to the families.

    In Italy instead is absolutely terrible, there were some contributions from the state, but the conditions to get them were almost impossible to achieve (especially if you are Italian), nurseries are very expensive and salaries are much lower than in northern Europe (and taxes are very high in Italy, especially compared to said salaries).


    Many people on their 30s that wants kids struggle because it is very difficult from an economic point of view.

    I'm addition I see often ads (and the so called influencers) speaking against having kids, and probably they managed to brainwash some of the newer generations.

    Italy is becoming a country with a lot of old people and each year less young people. Furthermore there are a lot of Italians between 20 and 40 years old leaving the country.

    At least until now we do not have crazy Nazi like in Japan
    (Actually a Japanese professor living in the US) that have a SS solution to the problem.

    https://nypost.com/2023/02/13/yale-professor-suggests-elderly-japanese-residents-should-die-in-mass-suicide/


    By the way ALAMO, this for you:
    Someone in your country is trying to invert the trend!

    https://www.insider.com/polish-mom-delivered-quintuplets-has-a-total-of-12-children-2023-2

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    Post  GarryB Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:47 am

    Regular wrote:At this time, Russia has 3 supercomputers. China - 173. USA - 118. Ukraine - none existent.

    That’s all.

    Really.... because on the UAC website from an article from April 2021 they mention the use of supercomputers by Sukhoi helped improve (reduce) the time and money spend on design by a significant margin... so you say Russia only has three and OAK mentions that Sukhoi are using presumably at least two... who gets to use their other super computer?

    Those lists are compiled by companies and organisations and are based on the top 500 super computer designs... if you don't submit your computer to be tested and rated then it wont be on the list and wont be counted as a super computer... no matter how fast or slow it might be.

    This means the list of how many super computers a country has is a joke... do you honestly believe they don't use super computers to model nuclear explosions for testing... do you think they designed 5th gen fighters on an Apple IIe computer? Are their mach 28 wind tunnels and Scramjet model designs being cut out of wood and tested with each iteration in a labour intensive manual method of developing hypersonic missiles?

    Bought any nice bridges recently dude?

    BTW all this stuff about supporting families with children reminds me of this:

    Russian population and demographics #2 - Page 3 Ewxes412

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:10 am

    By the way ALAMO, this for you:
    Someone in your country is trying to invert the trend!


    This is another level Laughing yet in my family, there are some cases of having 5 kids.

    As I said, the reasons that construct the size and structure of families are multiple. All cooperate altogether.

    No matter how bizarre it might sound, fashion is one of them.
    Fashion is being created by social influence. Social media, and media in general.
    At the moment, most of the MSM actually carries a campaign against fertility. And calling it with fancy letters.
    A whole LGBTXYZ+- is set to kill the traditional values.
    Pushing hedonistic agenda.
    People are being encouraged to have pets rather than kids.
    And deconstruct the social structure then by treating pets like kids.
    Surely I have nothing against pets, we have a dog in a family and she is the youngest kid Laughing Laughing yet the dog is supplementing, not substituting family structure.
    It is an ideology, and there is no reason to call it a different way.
    If the country is stable, with stable social guarantees, developed infrastructure, and carrying traditional values - fertility will surely improve.
    But that requires generations. Born&breed in a stable country that allocates a lot of tools and assets to improve the living conditions of families.
    For example, the first post-war Constitution of 1952, claimed that "family and marriage is under care and protection of the Republic, and
    large families are surrounded by the state special care".

    Bought any nice bridges recently dude?

    Who is selling?
    lol1

    That reminded me a joke.
    Two old Jews met at Odessa market.
    Oh, Goldbaum, how good to see you!
    You too, Schlafbaum!
    Wouldn't you buy a cow from me?
    A cow? Sure I would!
    Great! So we will seal the deal tomorrow!
    Great, we will!

    And both walked away in different directions. Goldbaum looking for a cow, and Schlafbaum looking for money.

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    Post  wilhelm Sat Feb 18, 2023 2:44 pm

    "Caveat Emptor
    Remember that Ireland is sort of offshore zone and there are tons of US companies European HQs there."

    Nothing about the Irish economy is real.
    There is a phrase used by people in Ireland who know this which accurately describes it.. Leprechaun Economics.

    The actual, real wage earned by people is nowhere near as high as the massaged "statistics" pretend.
    The GDP is artificially inflated by multinationals paying very little tax, but who declare their profits in Ireland..as the Irish corporate tax rate is lower than the EU set rate.
    This is going to end soon, as the EU are pissed off that these companies are basically not paying taxes on where they make almost all their money, which is the EU mainland, not little Ireland.

    So, basically stealing tax from other EU taxpayers.

    Along with other parts of the "economy" I won't go into here (eg heavy farm subsidies, cronyism, non accountability etc), it's basically a little mafia state.
    This corporate tax trick is set to change, and the truth will then be revealed.


    Last edited by wilhelm on Sat Feb 18, 2023 2:54 pm; edited 5 times in total

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    Post  flamming_python Sat Feb 18, 2023 2:49 pm

    They have free education, healthcare, multiple social benefits, fully paid holidays, and quite an effective pensionary system that is applied for the age much lower than in Europe.

    - agreed on the education,
    - the free healthcare system varies in quality and traditionally people who could afford it were taking out private insurance (plus the free healthcare plan only covers urgent dentistry). The trend has been for the free healthcare system to improve over the last decade though.
    - the multiple social benefits; good luck with the bureaucracy. Although yes, I did manage to successfully get about $2500 in tax returns back when I bought an apartment, and also deferments on my mortgage and so on. The unemployment benefits are miserable but that's probably a good thing.
    - fully paid holidays; sure, but that's courtesy of the employer's expense AFAIK, not the government's
    - pension system, a little too young to have personal experience with it but do have a relative who lived abroad for decades and has been trying for a long time now to prove that he worked in the Soviet-period and is entitled to a Russian pension, and come up with the paperwork to prove it. One archivist seems to refer him to another, you get the idea. In any case the pensions still seem quite small, although have also improved.

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 18, 2023 4:35 pm

    - agreed on the education,
    - the free healthcare system varies in quality and traditionally people who could afford it were taking out private insurance (plus the free healthcare plan only covers urgent dentistry). The trend has been for the free healthcare system to improve over the last decade though.
    - the multiple social benefits; good luck with the bureaucracy. Although yes, I did manage to successfully get about $2500 in tax returns back when I bought an apartment, and also deferments on my mortgage and so on. The unemployment benefits are miserable but that's probably a good thing.
    - fully paid holidays; sure, but that's courtesy of the employer's expense AFAIK, not the government's
    - pension system, a little too young to have personal experience with it but do have a relative who lived abroad for decades and has been trying for a long time now to prove that he worked in the Soviet-period and is entitled to a Russian pension, and come up with the paperwork to prove it. One archivist seems to refer him to another, you get the idea. In any case the pensions still seem quite small, although have also improved.


    But you have free healthcare. Muricans don't. And the healthcare level in UK is on the medieval level.
    You are wishing good luck while confirming that you have received a huge tax relief that is non existent in most of the countries. And social benefits is much more than that. Maternity capital, social grants for families with kids, paid maternity leave, free access to the kindergarten or kid's nursery - things non existing in the US. And slashed much in the EU lately.
    It is not a matter who is paying your salary while you are on holiday - the law system grants it to you. Nonexisting in the US.
    Retirement age is lower than in most other countries, so only that makes the system more socially oriented.
    I was telling you that multiple times  -the grass is always greener at the neighbor's lawn.
    Some countries might have some specified benefits that are better than the Russian ones, but I can't mention any that would have all of them, at the same time.
    And I am serious.
    I will just tell you by local example.
    We do have some benefits for a born kid. It is $200.
    How does it apply to 590000 rubels for the first child, 780k RUR if the family has two kids, but hasn't received the benefit yet, and 190k RUB for the second and each next? Laughing Laughing
    We do have child benefit, $110 a month. Russia does either, after this years adjustments it makes 8000-16000 rubels a month, depending on the family income.
    In Russia, this benefit is applied for the pregnancy period, too, under some economical conditions. Here isn't.
    We do have parental leave and maternity leave - so is in Russia.
    All the healthcare for both mother and the child is free - here and in Russia.
    Sure, you can have your own gynecologist and pay for that, but it isn't a must.
    You could only dream about that being a US citizen. In the UK pregnancy healthcare level is at the medieval stage. Tons of my friends repatriated back only to deliver a healthy child.
    And we are a very socially oriented country even by the EU standards. The happy&wealthy 80s/90s are gone my friend. The EU doesn't look like a garden like some old farts are trying to say.
    My friends are just beck here from the Netherlands because the healthcare and social provision is better. Something unimaginable a decade ago.
    Things are changing bro.

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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:12 pm

    If Russia wants a normal fertility rate it needs to eliminate the woke feminist laws about divorce and child support. The decay into
    feminist barbarity rampant in the west and to some extent in Russia rests on these grotesque laws. No woman is entitled to alimony.
    The concept is absurd as nobody owes anyone a salary simply for associating with them. Child support must include automatic 50%
    custody. None of the ludicrous BS where the woman gets both the children and the money to support them. The kangaroo courts
    in the west assume the mother is the best parent. This is patent nonsense not backed by any objective facts. Children, both male
    and female, need both parents equally in their lives. Single mother households produce criminals at rates that cannot be questioned
    as noise. It's not any sort of spurious correlation.

    My body, my choice is a ridiculous feminist slogan. The man has equal rights to the fetus. If the woman does not want to get pregnant,
    then she has to try harder. In the current regime women have zero responsibility and the system is geared to let them use it against men.
    In the US it is common for women to get impregnated by some man and then foist the child support on another man. This sort of shit is
    destroying marriage. Russia always emulates the west and I can see such kangaroo justice establishing itself there as well. Women
    should not be allowed to get married to the state. They need to woman-up and take responsibility for their actions.

    The fertility decline in the west is not just urban affluence related. It is associated strongly with the decay of marriage into a man-rape
    process. The woman just needs to stay in the same house as a man for two months to become his "wife" and get at least 50% of his
    assets. If they are actually married, the woman gets nearly everything she wants and that is why 80% of divorces are initiated by
    women. The poor, starving state needs to offload its welfare "burden" onto men for having the stupidity to hook up with women. But
    the woman will be provided for one way or another regardless of her effort level.



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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:52 pm

    @kvs
    Dude, you need to take a chill pill. Some of the stuff you "propose" belong to Middle Ages and don't exist in the world even in fucked up, fundamentalist countries like Afghanistan or KSA.

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:20 pm

    Actually, even if KVS was a bit maybe heavy in writing, he is right.

    In Italy there are many divorced men that are ruined. They cannot see their own children, they lost their house, paid with their money, and in some occasions are sleeping in a car, because they cannot afford to pay for a rent anymore. But they have still to pay child support and in some cases even money to the ex wife.

    At that point it is better the middle age system of some arabic countries.

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    Post  kvs Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:59 pm

    The male suicide rate after divorce over financial coercion, not heart break, backs up my statements. Caveat Emptor is a simp and a feminist.


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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Feb 18, 2023 7:31 pm

    @kvs
    Caveat Emptor is a simp and a feminist.
    To the bone. 😂😂😂
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    Post  GarryB Sun Feb 19, 2023 2:50 am

    Caveat Emptor is a simp and a feminist.

    He is entitled to a differing opinion without abuse...

    Besides... don't fight the system... use it... if you get divorced claim to have decided you want to be a woman and demand equal rights to the children and demand your exwife pay you money to keep you in makeup and money for visits to the hair dresser...

    Ironically women in prison are paying for all this when male rapists claim to identify as female and the fox gets locked up in the chicken coop...

    But people have rights to decide their own gender and why should it matter anyway... men and women are equal so why separate them in prison anyway? HAHAHA.
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    Post  Kiko Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:50 am

    Russians have never looked to the future with such optimism, by Irina Alksnis for VZGLYAD. 02.28.2023.

    For Russian youth, for a significant part of whom the past year was the first serious challenge in life, this was a very important and useful experience. After all, there are no more pink glasses - but there are no doubts about the victory of our people.

    Levada Center*, a research organization and foreign agent, has published the results of another sociological survey on the socio-economic expectations of Russians. Those turned out to be interesting for many reasons, but the most remarkable, without a doubt, were the indicators of Russian society's confidence in the future - they turned out to be at peak, if not record values. Confident in tomorrow - 64% of respondents, uncertain - 36%.

    The figures are especially impressive, given that last year the same Levada Center recorded a sharp decline in this indicator, which reached parity at its lowest point - in September: the society was divided in half according to it.

    But the point is not only that in just six months the negative trend turned out to be reversed and rapidly rushed upwards, giving out the best indicators for a long period. No less interesting is the internal layout of numbers by generation.

    The bottom line is that for many years of observation, a stable - and quite natural on common sense - phenomenon has been manifested: people's assessment of their prospects depends very much on their age. Traditionally, the youngest (18-24 years old) are the most optimistic about the future. And the older the respondents (25–39 years old, 40–54 years old and over 55 years old), the more pessimistic they tend to be. There is really nothing strange about this. By and large, this is probably how it should be: the enthusiasm of youth, the sobriety of maturity and the burden of the past years in the older generation leave their mark on their assessment of the future. Moreover, according to the measurements of sociologists, the gap between young optimists and elderly pessimists was stable in our country at around 30%.
    The first destruction of the usual state of affairs began a few years ago - in the second half of the 2010s, when the older generation suddenly began to demonstrate greater confidence in the future than middle-aged people. Moreover, the indicator of optimism in the 55+ group has been consistently growing all these years, no matter what.

    If you think about it, the sudden greater optimism of older people compared to the middle age stratum is understandable. The changes of the last nine years have hit the 40+ generation the hardest: people of pre-retirement and near-retirement age found themselves in a situation where, due to the changes taking place in the world and the country, the ground shook under their feet, plans for the future went downhill, problems began with work. And it is clear that rebuilding, retraining, or even starting a career from scratch in a new field at that age is a huge stress, which, of course, affected their confidence in the future. In this sense, pensioners, albeit with a lower, but guaranteed income, unexpectedly found themselves in a more advantageous position.

    However, this does not explain the stable growth of optimism among the older generation against the background of various fluctuations among other generations. There is a suspicion that just here pure politics played its role: older people, by virtue of their experience and the collapse of the country they experienced first hand in the 1990s, assessed - and evaluate - Russia's policy in a rapidly changing world as correct and associate personal well-being and confidence in their tomorrow with the success of the country and its victory, in which they are convinced.

    This worked throughout the past year, when the younger generations were "sausage" against the backdrop of widespread turbulence. Moreover, in 2022, it was the young people who had the hardest time – their confidence in the future simply collapsed, and this, in general, is also understandable. Due to their age, they simply have not yet had the experience of truly large-scale crises and serious challenges. And then their usual life crumbled. The country was cut off both from the outside and on its own initiative from a lot of things - Western online stores, digital services, social networks. Many countries and international projects have been closed to Russian citizens. It became inaccessible to education, career and entertainment in many areas that seemed to be taken for granted before. And all this against the backdrop of large-scale hostilities - partial mobilization became the apotheosis. No wonder.

    However, six months have passed - and everything has changed radically again. Confidence in the future has not only returned - it has soared higher than before. And the most striking thing is that all generations of Russian society demonstrate an amazing unanimity in their assessment - the 30 percent gap that lay between young people and the elderly has disappeared. Now the difference between the most optimistic and pessimistic groups is only about 10%.

    The country calmly and confidently looks to its own future.

    Of course, an important role here was played by state policy, which seeks not only to ensure political and socio-economic stability for the people, but also does everything possible so that people continue to live their usual measured life, without storming, shortages, restrictions and other attributes of wartime. After all, in fact, we have exactly it - the escalation with the West has already gone far enough for us to lose our last illusions on this score and soberly realize the scale of the threat looming over us.

    The West also contributed to this result. Who should be offended: after all, it turns out that last year he did manage to sow a certain amount of confusion, anxiety and even fear in some parts of our society. However, instead of aggravating this process, he received a powerful setback in the form of not just the mobilization and consolidation of Russia (that would be half the trouble for him), but a surge of optimism and confidence in Russian society in its rightness, in its ability to cope with any challenge and confidence in our victory.

    And by the way, for Russian youth, for a significant part of whom the past year was the first serious challenge in life, it was a very important and useful experience. After all, there are no more rose-colored glasses - then everything will be even more severe and tough. But our people have no doubts about the victory.

    Well, the West will have to remember the old wisdom, the correctness of which it repeatedly convinced itself in the past, but which it once again chose to forget: do not wake up the Russian bear.

    * A non-profit organization included in the register of NGOs acting as a foreign agent

    https://vz.ru/opinions/2023/2/28/1201007.html

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