Russian special military operation in Ukraine #23

rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.

flamming_python wrote:Meanwhile the 6th columnists have progressed for searching for scapegoats and enemies within over their imagined catastrophic defeat

PapaDragon wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:...There are people in Russia who don't want Russia to win...

It's your country and if you feel that more is required then you should gather all the like-minded folks, hit the streets, proclaim your support for military escalation and demand more war

Protest are not just for traitors and hippies

And you're mis-attributing a quote to me

rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.

mr_hd wrote:

rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.

Russia will be defeated in Ukraine no matter what on long run. Ukraine is simply way too large and way too motivated to fight, it is not like Moldavia or Georgia where frozen, limited conflict will work and were Russia has undisputed upper hand. So far Ukraine always found way to re-group and hit back and disrupt Russian strategy.

And their capabilities are growing, not fast, but steadily are going up so Russian huge advantage in numbers and heavy artillery is going slowly down (it was 12:1 at the beginning in Russian advantage). The war in Ukraine has potential to reduce overall capabilities and strength of Russian military as well it can negatively impact security of the country. It is huge mess, for me it is not clear why Putin decided to do such a big and high risk gamble from the start.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

The problem with your dumb logic is Ukraine is losing far more capability every day than they are getting with no means to replenish their losses. This is basic stuff, keep dreaming. The real question is how much of Ukraine will russia take before its forced to stop.

mr_hd wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

The problem with your dumb logic is Ukraine is losing far more capability every day than they are getting with no means to replenish their losses. This is basic stuff, keep dreaming. The real question is how much of Ukraine will russia take before its forced to stop.

Well if it is so simple why is getting more hard to beat them on the ground? It is now 7th months of the conflict, they should be totally destroyed already. In any case time will tell what will happen...

mr_hd wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

The problem with your dumb logic is Ukraine is losing far more capability every day than they are getting with no means to replenish their losses. This is basic stuff, keep dreaming. The real question is how much of Ukraine will russia take before its forced to stop.

Well if it is so simple why is getting more hard to beat them on the ground? It is now 7th months of the conflict, they should be totally destroyed already. In any case time will tell what will happen...

mr_hd wrote:

rfan wrote:The problem is what it has been all along.  Russia is doing an operation with ~120,000 men, only half of which are in the active theater, so about 60,000, against a highly motivated much larger mobilized force being fed shit tons of NATO weapons.

Russian police from Ufa were having to fight against heavily armed Ukr regulars.  

Russia does not have enough manpower in theater to win this war, it is blatantly obvious.  

The Black Sea fleet has been sunk and driven off by a handful of US Harpoon missiles.

Russian air bases in Crimea are not usable.

The Russian Air Force is not able to fly deep and disrupt Ukrainian supply lines.

Ukrainian rail lines, bridges and roads are largely intact.

Russia needs to go much bigger in theater or it will be defeated.

Russia will be defeated in Ukraine no matter what on long run. Ukraine is simply way too large and way too motivated to fight, it is not like Moldavia or Georgia where frozen, limited conflict will work and were Russia has undisputed upper hand. So far Ukraine always found way to re-group and hit back and disrupt Russian strategy.

And their capabilities are growing, not fast, but steadily are going up so Russian huge advantage in numbers and heavy artillery is going slowly down (it was 12:1 at the beginning in Russian advantage). The war in Ukraine has potential to reduce overall capabilities and strength of Russian military as well it can negatively impact security of the country. It is huge mess, for me it is not clear why Putin decided to do such a big and high risk gamble from the start.

flamming_python wrote:I'm really not buying it

Disinfo is going to be active at this stage until the noose closes or whatever the plan is

This Balakleya or whatever was on the front-line and the Russians had every intel and advance warning of Ukrainian preparations for an offensive in the Kharkov region, and all the spies, recon and whatever else to boot

If Russian forced withdrew in such a hurry and Ukrainian forces have advanced so far then it is intentional

limb wrote:"Muh 4D chess" excuses are pathetic.

On a separate note, whats going on in Kherson? Why haven't visokopolye, and the andreevka bridgehead been retaken?

Why did it take 2 months for kodema to be taken. My prediction was right. Soledar by September at the earliest, artemovsk by November, maybe even January.