Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15

PhSt wrote:

Are you for real? Care to explain how Pukraine will magically grow stronger after this fake country is gradually obliterated?

Brainrot. Previous dunkings were left untreated, so this is the gangrene speaking.

PhSt wrote:

mr_hd wrote:Russia has pretty free hands but till summer only, after that Ukraine should be able to go heads on in some of the parts of the front line and do heavy counter offensive strikes. And after that their fire power will continue slowly to rise rest of the year.

I still think that this action is one of the biggest geostrategic disasters for Russia and its status and ambition to be great power.

Are you for real? Care to explain how Pukraine will magically grow stronger after this fake country is gradually obliterated?

Ukraine is sending old men to the front lines, there were reports that the average age of the Ukrainian military personnel that is on the front lines is 40 years(heard it on the Duran) and it is true if you look at the recent pictures of dead Ukrainians and Ukrainian POW's. All the young Ukrainian men have fled to Russia and more to the collective west and who can blame them?



Idiots buy in the western narratives easily, most of the crap that the main western media spews is nonsense and has no realty to it and morons buy into it.

Kharkov area.

Somewhere in Donbass.

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/05/a-short-note.html

https://sonar21.com/the-russian-timeline-critique-in-the-ukraine/

Martyanov and Johnson talk about "military experts" like Strelkov and Cassad.


A short note about western propaganda. Some see the propaganda machine, including all of the western MSM and Hollywood,
feeded by 50+ Billion $ a year, as a western advantage. Maybe. In reality it is a disadvantage, a least if your political and military
leaders are so stuipid as they are now in the west. They believe their own shit. Instead of looking at past wars and see what they
got wrong they invent lies, first to fool the public but after a while they believe them. They really think they won the air war in
Korea, they won in Vietnam, they beat the 3rd largest army (Iraq) and became the greatest military in the history of the universe
by repeating that victory in 2003. They´re already talking about a victory in Afghanistan because now Russia, China, India and Iran
got the problem.

But worst of all they believe all the lies about "Ukraine" and the countless victories their buddies achieved against the Russian Armed Forces.

I would say let them believe it, the surprise will be huuuuge if they are confronted by reality. The only problem is one that Colonel McGregor spoke
about some weeks ago. The embarassement of the western leaders will be so great that they could be forced to do something stupid just to fool the
public again (I´m paraphrazing).

The reason 70k troops is enough right now is that the artillery of 80 BTG is huge

Artillery assets attached to BTG are 3 to 1 in terms of ratio to manpower

So 70k is not enough for maneuver, but it's enough to dig in and blast the 17 Ukrainian brigades (now 14 due to the losee of 3 to 4 brigades)

1 BTG has 18 SPH and 1 regiment of rocket artillery

To understand, that means 800 men in a battalion have the firepower of a NATO Division

The Ukrainians are organized into BCT, brigade combat teams

They're manpower heavy, but do not have supporting assets, they relied on airpower like NATO and got taken out quickly

Even now TB2 which is cheap cannot get past the PVO IADS

So when we say 70k or 80 BTG are not enough, we must think what are the objectives of MOD

With that much artillery, a de facto line of control was established

The Ukrainians are 15km out, which is effective range of MSTA-B

The pics of huge dead, are the results of artillery pummeling their supposed counterattack

In other words they are fucked

The Z forces are like a woodchipper eating the VSU while sitting pretty

Hole wrote:https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/05/a-short-note.html

https://sonar21.com/the-russian-timeline-critique-in-the-ukraine/

Martyanov and Johnson talk about "military experts" like Strelkov and Cassad.


A short note about western propaganda. Some see the propaganda machine, including all of the western MSM and Hollywood,
feeded by 50+ Billion $ a year, as a western advantage. Maybe. In reality it is a disadvantage, a least if your political and military
leaders are so stuipid as they are now in the west. They believe their own shit. Instead of looking at past wars and see what they
got wrong they invent lies, first to fool the public but after a while they believe them. They really think they won the air war in
Korea, they won in Vietnam, they beat the 3rd largest army (Iraq) and became the greatest military in the history of the universe
by repeating that victory in 2003. They´re already talking about a victory in Afghanistan because now Russia, China, India and Iran
got the problem.

But worst of all they believe all the lies about "Ukraine" and the countless victories their buddies achieved against the Russian Armed Forces.

I would say let them believe it, the surprise will be huuuuge if they are confronted by reality. The only problem is one that Colonel McGregor spoke
about some weeks ago. The embarassement of the western leaders will be so great that they could be forced to do something stupid just to fool the
public again (I´m paraphrazing).

It exists in their minds only, NATO would never step to Russia

They learned their lesson 2022

PhSt wrote:

mr_hd wrote:Russia has pretty free hands but till summer only, after that Ukraine should be able to go heads on in some of the parts of the front line and do heavy counter offensive strikes. And after that their fire power will continue slowly to rise rest of the year.

I still think that this action is one of the biggest geostrategic disasters for Russia and its status and ambition to be great power.

Are you for real? Care to explain how Pukraine will magically grow stronger after this fake country is gradually obliterated?

Well there is small thing of huge military and financial support Ukraine has from EU, US and NATO, we are talking about tens of billions dollars...plus they do have big industrial base on their own right on top of it.

mr_hd wrote:

PhSt wrote:

mr_hd wrote:Russia has pretty free hands but till summer only, after that Ukraine should be able to go heads on in some of the parts of the front line and do heavy counter offensive strikes. And after that their fire power will continue slowly to rise rest of the year.

I still think that this action is one of the biggest geostrategic disasters for Russia and its status and ambition to be great power.

Are you for real? Care to explain how Pukraine will magically grow stronger after this fake country is gradually obliterated?

Well there is small thing of huge military and financial support Ukraine has from EU, US and NATO, we are talking about tens of billions dollars...plus they do have big industrial base on their own right on top of it.

Yes but be logical those won't help Ukraine win, it will delay the russians the only thing that can make the russians loose is the russians.

mr_hd wrote:

PhSt wrote:

mr_hd wrote:Russia has pretty free hands but till summer only, after that Ukraine should be able to go heads on in some of the parts of the front line and do heavy counter offensive strikes. And after that their fire power will continue slowly to rise rest of the year.

I still think that this action is one of the biggest geostrategic disasters for Russia and its status and ambition to be great power.

Are you for real? Care to explain how Pukraine will magically grow stronger after this fake country is gradually obliterated?

Well there is small thing of huge military and financial support Ukraine has from EU, US and NATO, we are talking about tens of billions dollars...plus they do have big industrial base on their own right on top of it.

Ukraine doesn't have a huge military and few mercenaries are going to it from the West anymore. The Ukrainian military is already using older less fit men some of whom havent even uniforms. The equipment they are getting from the west would require significant training to use and most won't get anywhere near the east/south with the rail networks knocked out. Also Ukraine doesnt have a huge industrial base anymore; most of those were either in the Donbass or knocked out by missile strikes and bombs. They have already lost the war. Its just a short matter of time for the bulk of the military to be completely surrounded and destroyed north of Donetsk.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

mr_hd wrote:

PhSt wrote:

mr_hd wrote:Russia has pretty free hands but till summer only, after that Ukraine should be able to go heads on in some of the parts of the front line and do heavy counter offensive strikes. And after that their fire power will continue slowly to rise rest of the year.

I still think that this action is one of the biggest geostrategic disasters for Russia and its status and ambition to be great power.

Are you for real? Care to explain how Pukraine will magically grow stronger after this fake country is gradually obliterated?

Well there is small thing of huge military and financial support Ukraine has from EU, US and NATO, we are talking about tens of billions dollars...plus they do have big industrial base on their own right on top of it.

Yes but be logical those won't help Ukraine win, it will delay the russians the only thing that can make the russians loose is the russians.

Perhaps that is exactly what Ukrainians are counting on, after all those two brotherly nations know each other quite well.

News: During counteroffensive, the Defense Forces of Ukraine regained control over the settlements of Oleksandrivka,Fedorivka, Ukrainka, Shestakove, Peremoha and part of the village of Cherkaski Tyshky in the Kharkiv region - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine- I do not know if this is verified.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MapsUkraine

He is back on twitter.

mr_hd wrote:Russia has pretty free hands but till summer only, after that Ukraine should be able to go heads on in some of the parts of the front line and do heavy counter offensive strikes. And after that their fire power will continue slowly to rise rest of the year.

I still think that this action is one of the biggest geostrategic disasters for Russia and its status and ambition to be great power.

Hole wrote:https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/05/a-short-note.html

https://sonar21.com/the-russian-timeline-critique-in-the-ukraine/

Martyanov and Johnson talk about "military experts" like Strelkov and Cassad.

I think Martyanov is making up stuff.

True, Strelkov was criticized for retreating from Slayvansk, but the situation was untenable and he wasn't given reinforcements.

The defense was admirable, he did a lot with very little and stalled the ukrops for weeks.

The rest of the militia commanders weren't better educated than Strelkov, Bezler and Bolotov were former paratrooper sergeants. Neither Zakharchenko nor Mozgovoi were career military either.

There was not a single staff officer present among the militias or any officer at all.


"How he "defended" Slovyansk in 2014 everybody saw and that is why he spent three days naked in Donetsk prison, awaiting execution, and only interference from Alexandr Borodai saved his sorry ass."


This is complete bullshit. After Slavyansk, Strelkov came back to Donetsk and started putting things in order. At sometime he might have gone briefly to Russia together with Gubarev to talk to Kurginyan the guy from "Essence of time" and whatever oligarch it was providing the money to explain why Slavyansk couldn't be hold.

Strelkov was in charge, I remember reading a conversation described by Zakharchenko in wich he said he was appalled at the suggestion Strelkov made of "blowing up buildings to better defend in the ruins". He was right but the Donetsk residents wouldn't be up for it.

I have no access to sources or a book that describe the inner workings of Novorussia and the politics and rivalries between militia commanders. I recall that Strelkov convened a "council of commanders"  to coordinate efforts. Strelkov I remember that he clashed with Bezler and Borodai and Kozitsyn but more or less got along well with Bolotov and Mozgovoi despite their lack of military skills.

I don't know to what extent was Strelkov exercising command, but the results were good, the ukrops fell into pockets one after another and the tide had turned by the time he resigned, or was forced to resign and Moscow took over.

I don't know if Strelkov is a chronic grognard that is always doom and gloom, or it was a clever ruse to trick the Ukrainians into believing they were about to win, when they were actually being lured into a trap.

I hardly know anything about what was going on, other than Zakharchenko when he first came into light, saying that his army "had trained in Russia" before crossing the border to hit unexpectedly the ukrops. It has been speculated that Strelkov defended with the older militias to gain time while sending the young ones to form a sort of an army and have several weeks training and getting formed into units.

For an amateur uneducated commander Strelkov did very well. So well in fact that the Kremlin got alarmed at the possibility he would become a leader for the patriots and arranged his dismissal in exchange of support for Novorussia.

I don't understand why Russian patriots would criticize Strelkov. He was right all the time, and he is right to criticize Putin government, but unlike other oppositionists, he has remained loyal and stresses the point that Putin is the commander in chief, and for the good of Russia is better to obey. Also, he doesn't seem to have any political ambitions. In fact he is alive because he promised not to get involved.

The man has his flaws, and he's not the military genius he fancies himself to be. But for an amateur he did very well.

As for his disputes with other people, well, understandable because he is jeaulous and bitter, he was removed from command just as he was winning the war. I think personally Borodai was a good man, but Strelkov was right in that both Borodai and Pushilin and Plotnisky remained in positions thanks to kowtowing to what the Kremlin wanted. Zakharchenko as well but he wasn't so subservient.

I respect the man because even if wrong and bullheaded he has integrity and honesty and his pessimism if not outright alarmism has always been a means to an end, shake the Russian leadership out of its complacency and act. He's an irritant to the Kremlin because nobody likes the "I told you so" type.


I don't understand either the criticisms against either Yuri Podoliak and Boris Rozhin. They are both self-made journalists. Neither are really qualified to talk about military matters, but in a sea of mediocrity they are smart history buffs that are able to write about the war in an entertaining and interesting way and that's why they are so popular and have been invited on TV as self-proclaimed experts.

I don't begrudge them making money out of their videos or websites, neither of them are rich people and can use the extra income. I criticize the Saker blog because basically, to fill in the blanks, he does a lot of shitposting. He isn't reporting, he is selling a narrative.

Borya and Yura on the other hand keep up news and opinion sites, wich is a legitimate business. Unlike the Saker, they probably have real jobs and the internet is the extra income. Saying they are in it for the money is a slander. They are both honest patriots and they both have experience life under Ukraine occupation. Yura is from Sumy and Boris from Sevastopol.

I do feel some envy of them because of their popularity. I believe I am both smarter than them and more knowledgeable about military matters. If I were Russian or knew Russian I could do a better job than them.

Rozhin is a history buff and something of an eccentric as he's a nostalgic communist. His ideology and lack of knowledge of the outside world color his judgement, as he only knows Russian and it shows. He knows something about history and Ukrainian politics but he talks bullshit outside that. His military knowledge is deficient, he seems more of a general history buff than a war nerd. Podoliak is more of a "military expert", yet his incorrigible optimism and hurray patriotism is a downside as it's Strelkov pessimism. You can't generate traffic and income if you don't post videos all the time.


That being said I sympathize with Podoliak, I have made forecasts over and over again only to fail in them, to my chagrin, but then after the first Minsk truce this was a weird war where nothing made sense.  

Since I am stable financially and I am well off, I don't have to sell anything. If I don't feel like writing, I don't post anything. I am honest enough to tell my readers, "I didn't post anything because I didn't found anything new worth reporting" or admitting I don't have a clue of what is happening because I don't have enough info and nothing makes sense.  

So for balance, though I mostly disagree with Strelkov "doom and gloom", sometimes I admit he's onto something. The current operation doesn't make sense, or it's not what I expected or what I would do.

Unlike the pro-Ukraine western accounts that take Strelkov defeatism as a sympton of what they want to believe, that Russia is losing, I look at the hard facts, and those are that Ukraine is losing badly.

500 ukrops dead a day is entirely reasonable and what to be expected. Statistics and historical experience prove it. True, the advance is stalled and it's very slow, but I know enough military history to know that appearances can deceive. Grant at the Wilderness, Franco at the Ebro, and the Allies at Normandy were grinding down their enemy and final victory was certain despite all the complaints and critics and despair at the time that the enemy seemed to be holding fast.

And unlike the other historical examples of sucessful battles of attrition, this time the Russians are losing far fewer casualties. True, I wish reinforcements were sent and there was a breakthrough and closing of the pocket to finish sooner, or a drive from Kherson all the way to Transdnistria, but I am not in the Russian command and don't know what the plan is or the reasons why it's not done yet.

PS I would like to know if there's any internet Russian resource that explains what went on Donbass in 2014, who was who, and everything. Probably there are books in Russian.

Know that automated translation works better, I might dig the Cassad blog archive to see if I find something of interest.

mr_hd wrote:
Well there is small thing of huge military and financial support Ukraine has from EU, US and NATO, we are talking about tens of billions dollars...plus they do have big industrial base on their own right on top of it.

Do you even realize that not even a fraction (if any) will end up as actual "military support" for the Ukrs?!

The precision of the iskander is questionnable... iranian missiles are way more precise frankly.

Iskander hit farm pic.twitter.com/LQ8Vj4Ncob

— ZOKA (@200_zoka) May 6, 2022

Music warning

RobLee wrote:https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1522609558379765761

Ukrainian TB2 UCAV footage showing a Russian Tor air defense TLAR on fire after it was struck on Snake Island.
https://m.facebook.com/watch/?v=535698608078539

It looks like there was only 1 system on the island. How long its radar can be active until it needs to be turned off?

Isos wrote:The precision of the iskander is questionnable... iranian missiles are way more precise frankly.

Iskander hit farm pic.twitter.com/LQ8Vj4Ncob

— ZOKA (@200_zoka) May 6, 2022

Looks too slow to be iskander

diabetus wrote:

Isos wrote:The precision of the iskander is questionnable... iranian missiles are way more precise frankly.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="da" dir="ltr" xml:lang="da">Iskander hit farm <a href="https://t.co/LQ8Vj4Ncob">pic.twitter.com/LQ8Vj4Ncob</a></p>— ZOKA (@200_zoka) <a href="https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1522608527176617986?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2022</a></blockquote>

Looks too slow to be iskander

Yet the size of the explosion does look like Iskander. It's safe to assume the farm was heavily damaged.

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles fired by the Russian Air Force hit 31 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 1 ammunition depot near Popasnaya.

Operational-tactical and army aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces have hit 27 military assets of Ukraine.

Among them: 3 ammunition depots near Kuzminovka, Zvanovka and Seversk in the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 7 company strongholds and 16 areas of manpower and military equipment concentration.

The attacks have resulted in the elimination of up to 310 nationalists and 27 units of AFU military equipment, as well as 1 Ukrainian Osa-AKM anti-aircraft missile near Seversk, Donetsk People's Republic.

Missile troops and artillery have hit 22 command posts, 207 strongholds, areas of manpower and military equipment concentration, as well as 3 ammunition depots during the day.

Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Su-27 aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force near Platonovka, Lugansk People's Republic.

In addition, 7 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been shot down over Liptsy (Kharkov Region), Sladkoe, Zemlyanka (Donetsk People's Republic), Tretyakovka, Varvarovka (Lugansk People's Republic) and near Zmeiniy Island. 2 Ukrainian Smerch multiple-launch rockets have been intercepted over Izyum.

In total, 152 aircraft and 112 helicopters, 749 unmanned aerial vehicles, 291 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,867 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 331 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,345 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,698 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #Briefing
@mod_russia_en

Something was happening again near Belgorod
https://t.me/sashakots/32320

@ Ark



https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XfpVBSD4zLs


There seem to be simple programme that determines actions of units and individuals , in force application warfare . Some are obvious from video :


( 1 ) If enemy unit is alive ( is moving ) then lethal force applied to exposed non- attacked areas .

( 2 ) Lethal force application by other units , if exposed areas remain .

( 3 ) Once enemy force dead ( not moving ) , then enemy force ( spoils , resources ) divided for transport .

( 4 ) The speed of retrieval , by single units , at maximum , carrying small chunks .

( 5 ) No live enemy units , carried back . Only dead ones !

Stupid Ants !

Arrow wrote:Something was happening again near Belgorod
https://t.me/sashakots/32320

Been checking local social media. People in Belgorod say they saw and heard multiple jets firing missiles high in the air towards Ukraine and then turning back.

The smoke is from something else.

Lol. They missed hahaha. US mighty tech.