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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15

    flamming_python
    flamming_python


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    Post  flamming_python Tue May 10, 2022 7:09 pm

    mr_hd wrote:In Kharkiv front Russian positions are collapsing, it is not orderly tactic. Ukrainian forces there are changing power balance and are successfully and systematically pushing and clearing more area for days now. Russian forces there are among the most tin overall and if Ukraine is able to expel Russians there this will have negative implications also for Donbass front on long run since that will be next area were extra soldiers will come on Ukrainian side.

    All in all there are signs that Russians are needed thousand more soldiers if they want to consolidate already taken territory and for any bigger push those numbers are rising into huge category.

    In the meantime Ukraine is achieving parity in heavy weapons on the ground - they already have more tanks compared to russian deployed numbers - first time since war started (one reason was Polish donations of 200+ tanks among other things).

    All in all long term prospects for Russia in Ukraine are not good at all, if Russia is not able to finish conflict quickly long term prospects are grim - that is reality.

    What on Earth are you talking about?

    What changing power balance? Russian forces retreated from a few villages. Quite orderly, no casualties. Only significant event of note over the last couple of days was Snake island, and I guess the strikes on Odessa and Nikolayev too.

    Russia will choose where and when it's 'expelled' from. It's already been mentioned that luring Ukrainian units out into the open is a priority.

    There is no evidence those 200 ex-Polish tanks have even made it to the front lines yet. Last news is that the Ukraine is keeping its donated equipment in the west of the country for now. The railroads into their semi-destroyed state and the scarce fuel supplies make transferring any such big equipment across the country a daunting prospect.

    The Ukraine has in fact never enjoyed tank superiority on any front. They didn't even have it against the LDNR forces alone, prior to 24th Feb; they had more manpower than the LDNR but less tanks in theater.
    What actually matters more right now is artillery superiority, and general firepower superiority - as this is what enables any advance in any war. However the Ukrainians don't have artillery superiority, nor air-power dominance, nor surface-to-surface missile dominance, nor anything that will allow them to move forward where the Russians don't want them to.

    The reality is that against all expectations, Russia actually seems very comfortable with the idea of a long war and steadily draining NATO of mercs, ammo, equipment, money, fuel and anything else they care to send to the Ukraine.
    At least for the time being, while Russia is going to be focusing on expanding its army and its ready pool of reserves.

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    Firebird


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    Post  Firebird Tue May 10, 2022 7:16 pm

    mr_hd wrote:In Kharkiv front Russian positions are collapsing, it is not orderly tactic. Ukrainian forces there are changing power balance and are successfully and systematically pushing and clearing more area for days now. Russian forces there are among the most tin overall and if Ukraine is able to expel Russians there this will have negative implications also for Donbass front on long run since that will be next area were extra soldiers will come on Ukrainian side.

    All in all there are signs that Russians are needed thousand more soldiers if they want to consolidate already taken territory and for any bigger push those numbers are rising into huge category.

    In the meantime Ukraine is achieving parity in heavy weapons on the ground - they already have more tanks compared to russian deployed numbers - first time since war started (one reason was Polish donations of 200+ tanks among other things).

    All in all long term prospects for Russia in Ukraine are not good at all, if Russia is not able to finish conflict quickly long term prospects are grim - that is reality.

    Like the same "reality" as the Makarov "sinking" according to your report... and then reappearing in port a couple of days later? 🙄

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    Ispan
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    Post  Ispan Tue May 10, 2022 7:36 pm

    Special report on the past two days, including today, composite of many reports, with maps, and some other links and stories. Edited and presented as best as I could. The translation from "military to human" is, as always, left as an exercise for the reader.

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/parte-de-guerra-10-05-2022-informe-especial/

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Tue May 10, 2022 7:43 pm

    Regular wrote:

    Sorry, but it's kinda meh compared to this

    And how much accuracy do you expect? Laughing

    caveat emptor wrote:
    This is some 50+ km from closest frontline. Unless they have  an S-300 nearby, they can't shoot it down, as other systems don't have range. Buk M3 is only seen on Izyum direction. Others like S-350 or S-400 are not stationed in Ukraine to begin with.

    This place is in Doneck Oblast, west of Kramatorsk.
    Some 60-100 km behind the lines inside the Ukro occupied territory.
    Geography is a bitch.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Tue May 10, 2022 8:01 pm

    Belisarius wrote:And believe me, the list doesn't stop there...

    May 9th mobilization and war declaration
    Low morale
    No armour left
    Shoigu coup'ed
    Putin coup'ed
    Putin rotting from terminal disease

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:The huge grouping in Belarus never left either

    Russia left behind immense forces in Belarus

    Waiting for Poland to make their move

    Poland isn't going to go into the war, with their own troops.

    So that excuse for holding back is just a silly ass excuse.

    Also didn't you say Russians forces aren't taking any losses in their slow advance, you need to stop saying ridiculous things.

    If the Russians have these immense forces you speak of, they should have been committed by now or at least parts of them.

    Yet I see none of that

    Rotations boy, rotations

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Tue May 10, 2022 8:22 pm

    lyle6 wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    Arrow wrote:There are many reports that the Russians are withdrawing from the vicinity of Kharkiv towards their border. How true is that? If true, why are they withdrawing? This will bring Ukrainian forces closer to the border with Russia, from where it will be even easier for them to shell into Russian territory.

    The more they are drawn out from the city, and as they keep advancing more will have to come out to protect ever lengthening flanks, the more over confident they become.

    The end result being that they are much more vulnerable to counterattack in the countryside with fewer left behind to protect Kharkiv. We can almost hear Moscow saying "just a few km more, please'

    Feints and feigned retreats are the steppe bread and butter. The Russians have an intact logistics network just bursting with diesel and iron so repositioning is practically a free action. Russian formations can dance around, unload combat power in one sector, disengage, and then reappear in another sector, having regrouped and rearmed in transit, rinse and repeat.

    The Syrians defended every little settlement until the last soldier. Then the Russians teached them that a little retreat here and there can be helpful. Your enemy has to leave his positions, exposes his supply lines and depots. Now you can locate and destroy the supplies.

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Tue May 10, 2022 8:24 pm

    Firebird wrote:
    mr_hd wrote:In Kharkiv front Russian positions are collapsing, it is not orderly tactic. Ukrainian forces there are changing power balance and are successfully and systematically pushing and clearing more area for days now. Russian forces there are among the most tin overall and if Ukraine is able to expel Russians there this will have negative implications also for Donbass front on long run since that will be next area were extra soldiers will come on Ukrainian side.

    All in all there are signs that Russians are needed thousand more soldiers if they want to consolidate already taken territory and for any bigger push those numbers are rising into huge category.

    In the meantime Ukraine is achieving parity in heavy weapons on the ground - they already have more tanks compared to russian deployed numbers - first time since war started (one reason was Polish donations of 200+ tanks among other things).

    All in all long term prospects for Russia in Ukraine are not good at all, if Russia is not able to finish conflict quickly long term prospects are grim - that is reality.

    Like the same "reality" as the Makarov "sinking" according to your report... and then reappearing in port a couple of days later?  🙄

    True. And how many of these mythical polish tanks made it to the frontline?

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue May 10, 2022 8:34 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:The huge grouping in Belarus never left either

    Russia left behind immense forces in Belarus

    Waiting for Poland to make their move

    Poland isn't going to go into the war, with their own troops.

    So that excuse for holding back is just a silly ass excuse.

    Also didn't you say Russians forces aren't taking any losses in their slow advance, you need to stop saying ridiculous things.

    If the Russians have these immense forces you speak of, they should have been committed by now or at least parts of them.

    Yet I see none of that

    No need , the philosophy of absorbing the enemy manpower before a shock offensive is proven

    Uranus and bagration showed it

    The initiative is with Russia, the west was wrong and has lost the initiative, they did not plan on this dragging out here, and now that the VSU is ground into dust,

    Russian offensive will slice through those lines like butter

    Shock offensive indeed

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    Sujoy
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    Post  Sujoy Tue May 10, 2022 8:58 pm

    Isos wrote:Israeli trophy did very well against atgms.
    But that was before RPG 30 was introduced, isn't it? And Kornet too destroyed several Merkava tanks.

    Isos wrote:They for sure aren't protecting with 100% success but they make atgm Pk very low.
    APS will not be of much use against top attack ATGMs.
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    Post  calripson Tue May 10, 2022 9:02 pm

    Sujoy wrote:
    Isos wrote:Israeli trophy did very well against atgms.
    But that was before RPG 30 was introduced, isn't it? And Kornet too destroyed several Merkava tanks.

    Isos wrote:They for sure aren't protecting with 100% success but they make atgm Pk very low.
    APS will not be of much use against top attack ATGMs.

    There is no reason APS cannot be designed to work against top attack weapons. Not to do so would be criminally stupid.

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    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue May 10, 2022 9:03 pm

    PhSt wrote:....Was just wondering, why don't Ukraine breach the Russian border since they are already at war anyway, perhaps such move would win the Ukrops more approval points from their NATzO handlers.

    Because that would mean leaving civilian meat shields behind and going out in the open

    Going out in the open means getting massacred instantly

    Solution: stay close to the meat shields

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    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Tue May 10, 2022 9:09 pm

    Hole wrote:
    The Syrians defended every little settlement until the last soldier. Then the Russians teached them that a little retreat here and there can be helpful. Your enemy has to leave his positions, exposes his supply lines and depots. Now you can locate and destroy the supplies.
    Retreaterinos are only showing how much of a newfag they are. Anyone who's really following this shit are only too aware of this handsome visage and his legendary maneuvers all over Syria:
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 22 ECopUA9U0AAzMX4
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue May 10, 2022 9:14 pm

    Belisarius wrote:
    diabetus wrote:UAF MiG-29 blatantly flying over donetsk oblast in broad daylight...
    Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 fighter shot down near Severodonetsk

    Blatantly shot down Cool

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue May 10, 2022 9:19 pm

    Ispan wrote:Special report on the past two days, including today, composite of many reports, with maps, and some other links and stories. Edited and presented as best as I could. The translation from "military to human" is, as always, left as an exercise for the reader.

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/05/10/parte-de-guerra-10-05-2022-informe-especial/

    Approximate map of the latest developments in the northern Donbass Salient in the last 48 hours

    YESTERDAY 09 May

    General situation (summary Readovka)

    Today, the situation on the fronts was calmer. Ukrainian artillery shelled Donetsk.

    On May 9, the fighting for the island of Zmeiny continued. The Ukrainian side suffered heavy losses: 2 ships, 4 aircraft and almost 30 unmanned aerial vehicles.

    In Odessa especially strong missile attacks, the infrastructure of the city was seriously damaged

    In the north-east of Kharkov, the enemy's advance towards the Russian border.

    The Izyum front stretched to the Luhansk region. The fighting is taking place along the entire contact line. In the west of Izyum, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting for Velikaya Komyshevakha.

    In the La Liman area, the offensive is hampered by fires. East of Yampol, the Russian Armed Forces have crossed the Seversky Donets River, and there is fighting on Belogorovka.

    In parallel, an offensive is developing near Lisichansk and from the Severodonetsk side. Popasnaya completely under Russian control.

    Map showing the progress, in the inset, detail of the crossing of the Seversky Donetsk River and the advance along the flank of the end of the salient.

    Summary: Rybar and other reports

    Attack on Donbass from the north: the situation at the end of the day on May 9, 2022

    The Allied forces managed to break through the enemy defenses in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysichansk triangle.

    Address Lisichansk-Severodonetsk, south flank:

    The clearing of Popasnaya has been completed, shelling of enemy positions located to the north and west of the settlement is being carried out.

    East of Popasnaya, on the western bank of the Seversky Donets, units of the Allied forces occupied the village of Toshkovka. The lower and adjacent heights, there are battles for the settlement.. The establishment of control over Toshkovka will allow access to the Lisichansk-Gorskoe highway and the southern outskirts of Lisichansk.

    If, at the same time, a Popasna coup continues to the south, this will lead to the encirclement of the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Gorskoe-Zolotoe settlement and block the road to Lisichansk from the south.

    Address Lisichansk-Severodonetsk, northern flank:

    The Allied forces crossed the Seversky Donets River and entered the village. Belogorovka. Fierce battles were fought in the settlement throughout the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to partially prevent the crossing. . Fighting also continued in the Voyevodovka area

    Intense battles and artillery duels are held along the banks of the Donets along the entire Kremenetskiye Lesy National Park in the village of Kremenets. Shipilovo, Privolye, Serebryanka.

    Severodonetsk-Rubezhnoye:

    The enemy was driven out of the territory of the Zarya gunpowder factory in Rubezhnoye.

    Fighting continued in the forests adjacent to Severodonetsk. See report on the ambush in the forests

    https://topwar.ru/196063-posle-popadanija-vsu-v-zasadu-u-garnizona-severodonecka-voznikli-podozrenija-v-peredache-svedenij-rossijskim-vojskam.html

    Address Krasny Liman

    The struggles for control of Novoselovka, west of Drobyshevo, began.

    The battles for Liman are complicated by heavy forest fires

    Izyum:

    East of Chepel, the fighting continues in the forest. The parties are engaged in artillery duels. Velikaya Kamyshevakha was taken, but a rupture of the front has not occurred. The fighting continues north of the Barvenkovo—Slavyansk highway

    On the rest of the front without novelty, fighting of positions and artillery shelling.

    On the Zaporozhye -Donetsk front, despite the lack of news near Gulyai-Pole and Orekhov, the fighting on the front line has intensified considerably in recent days. Local Telegram channels are actively encouraging inhabitants to donate blood for the injured.

    In Donetsk, according to Strelkov:

    "There are unconfirmed reports that, as a result of recklessness in relieving the fire-hardened personnel units of the People's Militia of the DPR by reservist units that have not yet been in combat, the enemy reoccupied the entire part of Maryinka that was previously liberated. Which, if true, has no serious meaning, except a purely tactical one.»

    The Battle of Snake Island - Strelkov

    About the situation around the island of Zmeiny. It seems to me (according to the available data) the following:
    After the enemy demonstrated its anti-ship defense systems (anti-ship missiles, unmanned attack and reconnaissance aircraft coordinated by NATO air and satellite reconnaissance), the question of maintaining the island without further active offensive operations in the Odessa-Izmail area lost all meaning. With purely defensive actions, there was a threat of imminent complete isolation of the garrison and its subsequent liquidation as happened with the Ukrainian garrison. In addition, the defense of the island in the immediate vicinity of the coast equipped with enemy anti-ship weapons would inevitably lead to additional losses of the remaining ships and air forces of the Black Sea Fleet (for example, the Admiral Makarov frigate was attacked by Bayraktar without visible consequences). In this regard, a thoughtful decision was made to evacuate the garrison, which was not without losses (one Mi-8 helicopter and two landing craft of 61 tons displacement).

    At the same time, apparently, the command of the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian troops managed to "catch" the enemy during their own attempt to occupy the island (important primarily from the point of view of propaganda). According to reports, the amphibious operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine completely failed with heavy losses. According to various sources, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost 1 Su-27 aircraft, 1 to 3 Su-24 attack aircraft, 1 to 3 Mi-8 transport and combat helicopters and 1 Mi-24 attack helicopter, 2 to 4 Bayraktar drones and several amphibious assault ships. During the fighting, several air defense batteries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were also hit by fire, one battery was completely destroyed, up to 8 Pechora air defense systems destroyed. The total losses of the enemy amounted to 78 people officially killed and several dozen more "missing in action". There is unverified evidence that a significant part of the dead and "missing persons" (i.e. drowned) are unidentified foreign mercenaries.
    Currently, the island of Zmeiny, apparently, is not occupied by the garrison of any of the belligerents.

    TODAY 10 May

    1. West of Izyum, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost Velikaya Kamyshevakha, not having had time to strengthen their positions.

    2. In the Liman district, Russia has occupied Shandrigolovo, and the battle for Novoselovka is underway. The capture of Novoselovka will split the Ukrainian army group into two parts and leave Liman without artillery and armor support (the bridge to Slavyansk is damaged, and the road beaten by machine-gun fire).

    3. Russia tried to cross the Seversky Donets River and get to Belogorovka this time. It is unknown whose hands the village is in. Near Belogorovka passsto the Lisichansk-Bakhmut highway — this is the only road that allows you to leave the Lugansk region and supply the Ukrainian troops in the Severodonetsk agglomeration.

    The General Staff of Ukraine confirms these territorial losses in its report.

    The Russian army has made a small advance on the Ukrainian positions in Nikolaevka, near Slavyansk, a small town that is part of the Kramatorsk agglomeration. In a wooded area closer to the camps, the Nazis have placed artillery and their positions were destroyed with powerful salvos from the Russian army that has arrived there today.

    After occupying the dominant height (244 meters above sea level) on Popasnaya, the Lugansk Militia advanced towards Artemovsk (194 meters above sea level). Soon, the Artemivsk-Svitlodarsk highway will be battered by fire, and the Ukrainian grouping in the Svitlodarsk Arch will begin to suffer.



    Kharkov: Ukrainian amusement attacks

    Strelkov's report

    The withdrawal of LDNR units and Rosgvardiya units, fully staffed with poorly armed reservists, to new positions, significantly removed from Kharkiv in comparison with the previous ones, has ended. In some places, the withdrawal was carried out without the direct influence of the enemy, in others - as a result of his direct pressure on the extremely insufficiently armed, very small and completely untrained/inexperienced units of the "allies".
    In the "liberated" localities (for example, Stary Saltov), repression began against local officials and activists who had the courage to cooperate with the Russian military authorities and did not have enough time or opportunity to retreat with them.
    Currently, positional battles are continuing in the Kharkov region.


    The situation in the Kharkiv region at 18.00 on May 10, 2022

    The army of Ukraine, National Guard battalions and Territorial Defense detachments continue to expand the control zone north of Kharkov. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing a large-scale offensive on Kazachaya Lopan and Tsupovka. The Russian army continues to maintain the defense in Liptsy. The fighting is taking place in Rubezhnoye next to the Seversky Donetsk River, just north of the Osko reservoir (not to be confused with the town of Rubezhnoye neighboring Severodonetsk in Luhansk, for which it has been fought for weeks)

    At the same time, the Ukrainian command is preparing an operation to force the Seversky Donets River near Chepel and cut off the supply routes of the Izyum group.

    The main task of the Ukrainian units in this area is to divert the forces of the Russian Armed Forces to the Zumsky and Limansky fronts.

    ▪ Several groups of saboteurs have already been sent to the border regions with Russia. The task of coordinating them and conducting sabotage operations in the border area with Russia is assigned to the British officers of the SA).

    ▪ From the Chuguev airfield aerial reconnaissance of Russian troops is carried out using the Bayraktar UAV, which correct artillery fire on columns of troops and equipment moving from the territory of the Russian Federation.

    ▪ Along the western bank of the Seversky Donets River to the villages of Zaliman and Chervonoye (east of the village of.Chepel) the enemy deployed command and observation posts of the 14th Mechanized Brigade and 4th Tank Brigade.

    The main efforts at the moment are focused on forcing small river assault groups into the area south of Chepel and taking control of the settlements Tudnevo and Divanovka.

    ▪ About 300 men from the territorial defense units formed in the west of Ukraine were transferred to Razdolye.

    The main attack with the crossing of the river via pontoons is likely to be launched simultaneously with the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area northeast of Kharkov.

    Official statement Russian army 10 May, 19:00 hours

    ▪ Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 74 targets during the day, including 2 command posts, 20 areas of concentration of troops and materiel, as well as two warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons.

    ▪ Missile forces and artillery units hit 223 targets, three command posts and two ammunition depots were destroyed

    As a result of the bombings, more than 100 nationalists were killed, 19 units of military equipment were destroyed.

    ▪ Russian air defense systems in the air near the settlement of the SHIROKOE Dnepropetrovsk region shot down a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft. In addition, in the NOVODMITROVKA area, an Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down in the Kherson region.

    In addition, four Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed near Lysychansk, KRIVOY ROG and the KULINOVKA Kharkiv region.

    ▪ In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 164 aircraft, 125 helicopters, 798 unmanned aerial vehicles, 302 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2983 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 351 multiple rocket launchers, 1440 pieces of field artillery and mortars, as well as 2796 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

    ▪ Another Ukrainian Bayraktar-TB2 unmanned aerial vehicle was destroyed by Russian air defense systems in the area of Zmeiny Island this afternoon.

    Thus, the Kiev regime over the past three days has lost only 30 military unmanned aerial vehicles in this area. 9 of them Bayraktar - TB2.

    All UAVs participated in the failed "PR campaign" of the Kiev regime to capture the island of ZMEINY on the eve of May 9, the Victory on the Great Patriotic War Holiday.

    In addition, today the Russian military found on the coast three bodies of Ukrainian saboteurs who fell into the sea.

    Now, as a result of the failure of the Kiev operation, 27 corps of militants of Ukrainian special forces units and nationalists remain on the island.

    In total, during the senseless attempt from a military point of view to seize the island, the Kiev regime lost three Su-24 bombers and one Su-27 fighter in the ZMEINY area.

    10 helicopters were destroyed. Of these, three Mi-8 helicopters with paratroopers on board and one Mi-24 support helicopter were shot down. In addition, six other Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters involved in the operation were destroyed on the ground near the village of Artsiz. Odessa Region.

    Also at sea, three Ukrainian armored amphibious assault ships "Centaur" with amphibious troops on board were destroyed.

    Therefore, this adventure ended in disaster for Ukraine. The thoughtless public relations campaign of the Kiev regime to seize the island of ZMEINY on the eve of Victory Day led to the senseless death of more than five dozen Ukrainian militants and soldiers of the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the loss of four aircraft, ten helicopters, three ships and thirty unmanned aerial vehicles.


    Other reports:


    The Snake Island meat grinder Prestigious or valuable target?

    https://antimaydan.info/2022/05/myasorubka_na_zmeinom_chto_na_samom_dele_proizoshlo_na_ostrove_na_kotoryj.html



    - Possible intervention of Poland

    According to a leaked memo published on the web, a letter to the commander of the State Border Service of Ukraine with an official notice about the impending entry of the contingent set of peacekeeping Polish-Lithuanian (up to 9500 military and 279 armored) in the territory of Ukraine.

    The contingent is scheduled to cross the Rava-Russkaya —Grebenne border crossing at 4 a.m. on May 22. The formal reason is the need to ensure the security of Ukraine.

    Ukraine's brutal tactic - sacrifice reservists as cannon fodder

    The Ukrainian army sacrifices the militiamen of the territorial reserve as expendable troops in order to retain its professional soldiers with combat experience, and in a cruel exercise of Darwinism "survival of the fittest", to blight novice troops at the cost of heavy losses.

    Zakhar Prilepin explains it in detail. Unfortunately, there are precedents, in 2014 something similar happened, and I already suspected this and there are several reports from front correspondents indicating the same thing. It is not only that the Ukrainian command does not care about the lives of its soldiers, much less taking the trouble to bury them, abandoning them like carrion on the battlefield, to save their relatives pensions, but also that the sacrifice of expendable units is a deliberate tactic. First they slaughtered the militiamen of the eastern Russian zones, and now they send to slaughter to the territories of the Western Ukraine.

    https://antimaydan.info/2022/05/taktika_ukrainskogo_uboya.html

    The morale of these units is low, if a week ago a shattered paratrooper unit in Liman has become insubordinate, the territorians complain that their only protection against enemy artillery is shovels.

    https://topcor.ru/25576-ukrainskie-bojcy-nas-s-lopatami-otpravljajut-voevat-protiv-artillerii.html


    Overview of the situation on the frontline. Perspectives and tactics

    By war correspondent (Voenkor) Kitten Z

    Some interesting observations about the situation at the front and what tactics the Russian army could employ to solve problems. Of course, the problem is that every commentator is believed the Generalissimo Suvorov and has their opinion on how they should fight the war, so I selected the parts that are observations from the front, the possible rational solutions obvious to all involved, and I've screening are the personal opinion of the author or redundant.

    1. Combat operations in the direction of Krasny Liman, in Popasnaya and other areas confirm that the enemy has begun to run out of time: they do not have time to dig trenches, so they throw cannon fodder to improvised positions in the fields and withdraw the main forces to the cities. He prepares for urban battles, builds fortresses in cities. This is bad, but here is a double reading: we should not take cities, but block them, preventing their supply. In addition to the railway to Kharkov, the enemy still has a railway to Kramatorsk. Let them stay in the cities. Let's start controlling more territories.

    2. The conflict is long-term. We can dig siege trenches and block the cities. They won't be able to stay in the cities for long if we cut logistics. They will try to counterattack. We have to make them come out of their fortress and reject them. For us, this is good. The fact that now they do not have time to dig and build those fortifications that they had in the area of Avdeyevka, Maryinka, Lisichansk, the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

    4. What's our problem? With the enemy's high-precision weapons launched from attack UAVs that can "enter through the window". But we have advantage of firepower on the field. This means that we need to entrench in the field, dig, create fortified areas along the line of defense and wait for the enemy, grind his personnel on counterattacks and inflict critical losses on personnel.

    6. Krivoy Rog is a long street full of factories. They are preparing a second Mariupol for us. The same metallurgical plants. What is Dnepropetrovsk? Manufacture. Zaporozhye has an island in the center of the Dnieper – Khortitsa. You can take the city, but if you blow up the bridges and line up the artillery, they will use the artillery of the island to bombard all attacking groups, they will bring everything by water - the Dnieper is wide there. Therefore, work from defense is effective, causing maximum damage to labor. The task is to neutralize 200-300 thousand of the enemy. Then the situation will begin to change.

    7. He would already begin to equip a security zone around Kharkov. There we did not retreat, but gave ground without a fight, because the Luhansk mobilized with bolt-action rifles and helmets of the 1943 model were sent to the second line, and the assault groups went further to the Izyum sector. Naturally, it is impossible to maintain the situation with these forces, it is simply impossible, the troops are not prepared. Now the enemy is 7 km from the border of the Russian Federation.


    Victims of Ukrainian shelling in Donbass

    Since the war resumed in February, as a result of shelling by Ukrainian artillery on the cities and villages of Donetsk and Luhansk

    133 civilians killed 671 injured

    During this period, 108 civilians, including four children, were killed in the DPR. 488 civilians were injured, including 40 children.

    In the LPR, 75 civilians were victims of Ukrainian aggression during this period, of whom 25 were killed and 50 injured. 1 child was killed and 4 children were injured.

    Today Donetsk was again shelled with heavy Uragan rockets. Cluster bombs fell on the trauma hospital

    https://antimaydan.info/2022/05/vfu_obstrelivaut_zapad_donecka_iz_rszo_i_tyazhelyh_orudij_raneny_mirny.html

    https://antimaydan.info/2022/05/ukronacisty_udarili_po_kievskomu_rajonu_iz_rszo_uragan.html

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    Post  PapaDragon Tue May 10, 2022 9:24 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:...Also didn't you say Russians forces aren't taking any losses in their slow advance, you need to stop saying ridiculous things.

    If the Russians have these immense forces you speak of, they should have been committed by now or at least parts of them.

    Yet I see none of that

    Rotations boy, rotations


    Also, of casualties on the Russian side how many are actual Russian Military and how many are local Republicans?

    Because those are two very different things and latter has been know to be lighter on discipline and paying the price for it

    (For the record, nobody is claiming zero casualties on Russian side, that would be silly, what matters is comparative scale)



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    Post  flamming_python Tue May 10, 2022 9:30 pm

    Kim Jong Un congratulated Russians on victory day and praised the Russian leadership for acting against a political and military threat

    This guy this knows the score alright

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    Post  PapaDragon Tue May 10, 2022 9:39 pm

    mr_hd wrote:....All in all long term prospects for Russia in Ukraine are not good at all, if Russia is not able to finish conflict quickly long term prospects are grim - that is reality.

    Gonna ignore rest of copium nonsense but this ''long term'' part caught my eye

    This here is Rouble exchange rate over past 6 months:

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15 - Page 22 Screen14

    For the record, this is the part that really blew my mind in this entire mess, not war, not historic changes, not cities getting torched to shit but this little graph right there


    Now I'll skip complicated economic stuff and just go straight to explanation: This means that Roube is now stronger than before war started which means that Russia is free to casually keep chewing Ukrainians as long as they wish until there's nobody left capable of holding a gun, jumping on command or screaming ''Slava Ukraine'' which is precisely what they are doing now


    For two decades Kremlin has been trying (and failing miserably) to create petro-rouble/resource-backed-rouble

    And in two months this US administration has done it for them (and did it with spectacular efficiency beyond Kremlin's wildest dreams)


    Long term prospects are indeed grim but not for Russia (and we are still weeks away from summer, can you imagine the shitstorm come fall/winter?)

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Tue May 10, 2022 9:48 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:...Also didn't you say Russians forces aren't taking any losses in their slow advance, you need to stop saying ridiculous things.

    If the Russians have these immense forces you speak of, they should have been committed by now or at least parts of them.

    Yet I see none of that

    Rotations boy, rotations


    Also, of casualties on the Russian side how many are actual Russian Military and how many are local Republicans?

    Because those are two very different things and latter has been know to be lighter on discipline and paying the price for it

    (For the record, nobody is claiming zero casualties on Russian side, that would be silly, what matters is comparative scale)





    In Kadyrov's channel there is info thet each week couple hundreds of volunteers are trained and sent to Donbass. Volunteers from Russia I would assume but they are not Russian military nor Wagnre people. I wonder which units do they join? LNR/DNR?
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    Post  sepheronx Tue May 10, 2022 9:50 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:...Also didn't you say Russians forces aren't taking any losses in their slow advance, you need to stop saying ridiculous things.

    If the Russians have these immense forces you speak of, they should have been committed by now or at least parts of them.

    Yet I see none of that

    Rotations boy, rotations


    Also, of casualties on the Russian side how many are actual Russian Military and how many are local Republicans?

    Because those are two very different things and latter has been know to be lighter on discipline and paying the price for it

    (For the record, nobody is claiming zero casualties on Russian side, that would be silly, what matters is comparative scale)





    In Kadyrov's channel there is info thet each week couple hundreds of volunteers are trained and sent to Donbass. Volunteers from Russia I would assume but they are not Russian military nor Wagnre people. I wonder which units do they join? LNR/DNR?

    Generally curious myself but I think they fall under the Kadyrov units. Mind you more than half are not chechen but people from all over Russia of all ethnicities. There is a constant flow of volunteers. Wagner is now also more active in Ukraine. They active everywhere.

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    Post  Azi Tue May 10, 2022 9:53 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    mr_hd wrote:In Kharkiv front Russian positions are collapsing, it is not orderly tactic. Ukrainian forces there are changing power balance and are successfully and systematically pushing and clearing more area for days now. Russian forces there are among the most tin overall and if Ukraine is able to expel Russians there this will have negative implications also for Donbass front on long run since that will be next area were extra soldiers will come on Ukrainian side.

    All in all there are signs that Russians are needed thousand more soldiers if they want to consolidate already taken territory and for any bigger push those numbers are rising into huge category.

    In the meantime Ukraine is achieving parity in heavy weapons on the ground - they already have more tanks compared to russian deployed numbers - first time since war started (one reason was Polish donations of 200+ tanks among other things).

    All in all long term prospects for Russia in Ukraine are not good at all, if Russia is not able to finish conflict quickly long term prospects are grim - that is reality.

    What on Earth are you talking about?

    What changing power balance? Russian forces retreated from a few villages. Quite orderly, no casualties. Only significant event of note over the last couple of days was Snake island, and I guess the strikes on Odessa and Nikolayev too.

    Russia will choose where and when it's 'expelled' from. It's already been mentioned that luring Ukrainian units out into the open is a priority.

    There is no evidence those 200 ex-Polish tanks have even made it to the front lines yet. Last news is that the Ukraine is keeping its donated equipment in the west of the country for now. The railroads into their semi-destroyed state and the scarce fuel supplies make transferring any such big equipment across the country a daunting prospect.

    The Ukraine has in fact never enjoyed tank superiority on any front. They didn't even have it against the LDNR forces alone, prior to 24th Feb; they had more manpower than the LDNR but less tanks in theater.
    What actually matters more right now is artillery superiority, and general firepower superiority - as this is what enables any advance in any war. However the Ukrainians don't have artillery superiority, nor air-power dominance, nor surface-to-surface missile dominance, nor anything that will allow them to move forward where the Russians don't want them to.

    The reality is that against all expectations, Russia actually seems very comfortable with the idea of a long war and steadily draining NATO of mercs, ammo, equipment, money, fuel and anything else they care to send to the Ukraine.
    At least for the time being, while Russia is going to be focusing on expanding its army and its ready pool of reserves.
    Maybe he is trolling a bit...but not complete wrong!

    I'm very pro-russian so that's why I don't understand why Russia is making the same BIG mistake over and over again?! Pulling the frontline 10 km away from Kharkov is okay, but Russia is literally pushed back to the border, they lost again another village.

    The same retared f*ck shit north of Kiev will happen here again! The local population trusted the Russians, now they leave and expose them to these psychopathic murderous ukrainian scum. Bucha 2.0 incoming...and I will hear the same bullshit again..."it was a feint".
    You can insult me, feel free... but I don't even think God knows what these Nazi demons are doing to the civilian population in the villages now.

    Additional Вовчанськ comes into artillery range of Grad rockets and Belgorod is only 25-30 km from the border away.

    Yes...of course it can be a tactic to lure the ukrainians out of Karkov. But I would not exclude that Russia is simply losing here on this part of the front. The retreat from Kiev was not a mistake (from a military point, from a political point it was a desaster) ...the retreat from Sumy area was just f*cking stupid, because Russia lost a buffer zone and payed a price with attacks against russian mainland. Luckily, the Ukrainian army was too weak or lets say too stupid to cause any real damage.

    How long does Russia want to be at war with Ukraine? 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, 20 years or 500 years? At some point the stinginess will end and you have to go all in to put an end to all the horror. I know that the Russian mission in Ukraine is currently limited and therefore very favorable both economically and militarily, but if it drags on too long, the opposite can be achieved.

    Consider that 50,000 to 100,000 more Russian soldiers (and that's really not much) would bring about a complete defeat of Ukraine very quickly.
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    Post  ludovicense Tue May 10, 2022 10:03 pm

    mr_hd wrote:In Kharkiv front Russian positions are collapsing, it is not orderly tactic. Ukrainian forces there are changing power balance and are successfully and systematically pushing and clearing more area for days now. Russian forces there are among the most tin overall and if Ukraine is able to expel Russians there this will have negative implications also for Donbass front on long run since that will be next area were extra soldiers will come on Ukrainian side.

    All in all there are signs that Russians are needed thousand more soldiers if they want to consolidate already taken territory and for any bigger push those numbers are rising into huge category.

    In the meantime Ukraine is achieving parity in heavy weapons on the ground - they already have more tanks compared to russian deployed numbers - first time since war started (one reason was Polish donations of 200+ tanks among other things).

    All in all long term prospects for Russia in Ukraine are not good at all, if Russia is not able to finish conflict quickly long term prospects are grim - that is reality.


    Margaret Kimberley
    @freedomrideblog
    Ukraine has lost. It can't defeat Russia. They can't contain or break up or weaken Russia without destroying the world economy. The $33 billion is a cash cow for defense contractors to continue a forever war. Phony concern for "disinformation" is to shut you up about all this....


    .......

    The world goes around many times.... things started badly for Russia with the somewhat botched attempt to win the war quickly.... it didn't work... Russian intelligence blatantly failed, underestimating the adversary. But Russia was able to reorganize itself and revert to the old but effective tactics of ground consolidation, with massive use of artillery to decimate fortifications and infantry and then advance. This avoids your casualties and imposes them drastically on your opponents, although the advance is slower.
    But the ironic thing about all this is that the long war that Russia wanted to avoid to avoid material, economic and human damage, seems more exhausting for the West than Russia itself.
    As I said earlier, the West's economic and military support for Ukraine has become a bottomless bag.... a black hole that grows nonstop.
    Ukraine went bankrupt and to maintain the war resources and more resources are poured to guarantee the continuity of the war. But in the long term this can become unsustainable, since the equipment that is acquired with these resources is destroyed by missile attacks, if not, they are stuck in the western part since the logistics are compromised not allowing them to reach the line. facing.
    Sanctions, which is one of the main tools for Russia's destruction, are not working as programmed, as Russia continues to sell commodities and the currency (first target) has held steady.
    The more sanctions, the more the Western economies that impose them are harmed. It has been proven that it is not possible to cancel Russia from the world economy without sinking the world together in an unprecedented crisis.

    Unless the West implements another devastating economic weapon that paralyzes all Russian transactions without affecting their economies, since the possibility of a direct confrontation remains in the theoretical field only, the West has already been defeated on both fronts: military and economic.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue May 10, 2022 10:04 pm

    Azi wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    mr_hd wrote:In Kharkiv front Russian positions are collapsing, it is not orderly tactic. Ukrainian forces there are changing power balance and are successfully and systematically pushing and clearing more area for days now. Russian forces there are among the most tin overall and if Ukraine is able to expel Russians there this will have negative implications also for Donbass front on long run since that will be next area were extra soldiers will come on Ukrainian side.

    All in all there are signs that Russians are needed thousand more soldiers if they want to consolidate already taken territory and for any bigger push those numbers are rising into huge category.

    In the meantime Ukraine is achieving parity in heavy weapons on the ground - they already have more tanks compared to russian deployed numbers - first time since war started (one reason was Polish donations of 200+ tanks among other things).

    All in all long term prospects for Russia in Ukraine are not good at all, if Russia is not able to finish conflict quickly long term prospects are grim - that is reality.

    What on Earth are you talking about?

    What changing power balance? Russian forces retreated from a few villages. Quite orderly, no casualties. Only significant event of note over the last couple of days was Snake island, and I guess the strikes on Odessa and Nikolayev too.

    Russia will choose where and when it's 'expelled' from. It's already been mentioned that luring Ukrainian units out into the open is a priority.

    There is no evidence those 200 ex-Polish tanks have even made it to the front lines yet. Last news is that the Ukraine is keeping its donated equipment in the west of the country for now. The railroads into their semi-destroyed state and the scarce fuel supplies make transferring any such big equipment across the country a daunting prospect.

    The Ukraine has in fact never enjoyed tank superiority on any front. They didn't even have it against the LDNR forces alone, prior to 24th Feb; they had more manpower than the LDNR but less tanks in theater.
    What actually matters more right now is artillery superiority, and general firepower superiority - as this is what enables any advance in any war. However the Ukrainians don't have artillery superiority, nor air-power dominance, nor surface-to-surface missile dominance, nor anything that will allow them to move forward where the Russians don't want them to.

    The reality is that against all expectations, Russia actually seems very comfortable with the idea of a long war and steadily draining NATO of mercs, ammo, equipment, money, fuel and anything else they care to send to the Ukraine.
    At least for the time being, while Russia is going to be focusing on expanding its army and its ready pool of reserves.
    Maybe he is trolling a bit...but not complete wrong!

    I'm very pro-russian so that's why I don't understand why Russia is making the same BIG mistake over and over again?! Pulling the frontline 10 km away from Kharkov is okay, but Russia is literally pushed back to the border, they lost again another village.

    The same retared f*ck shit north of Kiev will happen here again! The local population trusted the Russians, now they leave and expose them to these psychopathic murderous ukrainian scum. Bucha 2.0 incoming...and I will hear the same bullshit again..."it was a feint".
    You can insult me, feel free... but I don't even think God knows what these Nazi demons are doing to the civilian population in the villages now.

    Additional Вовчанськ comes into artillery range of Grad rockets and Belgorod is only 25-30 km from the border away.

    Yes...of course it can be a tactic to lure the ukrainians out of Karkov. But I would not exclude that Russia is simply losing here on this part of the front. The retreat from Kiev was not a mistake (from a military point, from a political point it was a desaster) ...the retreat from Sumy area was just f*cking stupid, because Russia lost a buffer zone and payed a price with attacks against russian mainland. Luckily, the Ukrainian army was too weak or lets say too stupid to cause any real damage.

    How long does Russia want to be at war with Ukraine? 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, 20 years or 500 years? At some point the stinginess will end and you have to go all in to put an end to all the horror. I know that the Russian mission in Ukraine is currently limited and therefore very favorable both economically and militarily, but if it drags on too long, the opposite can be achieved.

    Consider that 50,000 to 100,000 more Russian soldiers (and that's really not much) would bring about a complete defeat of Ukraine very quickly.

    Russia wasn't pushed back from anything, what stupid nonsense is this

    It's a withdrawal like Kiev

    Holding the line close to Kharkov with 5 BTG is worthless

    Bringing them into the open is the way to go,

    It's simple doctrine, transition from defense to counterattack to offense

    We are still in defense despite west predicting phase 2 weeks ago

    Why shift to the offense when the enemy is destroying their own capability chasing Russian army into an artillery gridlock that's zeroed every inch of real estate on the grid map

    They're gonna get blown to smithereens as in every engagement of this war

    Russia has ample forces, but it won't throw them into a senseless defensive position, it will hold them in 2nd and 3rd echelon until offensive begins

    This isn't western doctrine, it's warfare of General Staff

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    Post  ludovicense Tue May 10, 2022 10:05 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Belisarius wrote:
    diabetus wrote:UAF MiG-29 blatantly flying over donetsk oblast in broad daylight...
    Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 fighter shot down near Severodonetsk

    Blatantly shot down Cool

    Being a Ukrainian air force pilot must be the worst job in the world.

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Tue May 10, 2022 10:07 pm

    This special surgery shows one thing quite well. With drones ala TB-2 and with high Support and care, you can annoy the enemy a little. But it is very, very expensive when TorM2 is there. But if you have no AD, especially no TorM2 you are lost.

    It won't be long and everyone will want to buy Tor. The NATO have no Unit and Weapon in this Class = Lose hard on the Ground.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue May 10, 2022 10:09 pm

    Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:This special surgery shows one thing quite well. With drones ala TB-2 and with high Support and care, you can annoy the enemy a little. But it is very, very expensive when TorM2 is there. But if you have no AD, especially no TorM2 you are lost.

    It won't be long and everyone will want to buy Tor. The NATO have no Unit and Weapon in this Class  = Lose hard on the Ground.

    It's a cost benefit analysis

    If 1 tor Platoon is downing 10 Bayraktars, then you have a serious problem

    Especially when you lost 50 bayraktar and no kills on AD

    The myth of drones has been eliminated

    Azerbaijan would get wrecked bad , and they're watching this closely

    In fact, Turkey itself must be watch with concern as their doctrine gets destroyed in Ukraine

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