Russian special military operation in Ukraine #8

I don’t see any evidence of a ceasefire being agreed to, apart from an announcement about Kiev operations being scaled back (not withdrawn) which was already the case, so in reality nothing really changes on the ground at this stage.

Regular wrote:

Arrow wrote:Peace negotiations have started in Istanbul.  What is Roman Abramovicz doing there, however, is taking part in the negotiations

He is used there like a canary in the mines, to see if there will be another poisoning attempt. Other than that, I can't imagine use of him for any side. Surely he wants to save his ass.

My understanding is that he is acting as a go between with the Ukrainian oligarchs, the real power in Ukraine after the USA.

Firebird wrote:Maybe the summary from RT is of poor quality.
But this seems really weird.
The Donbass cauldron was set to be obliterated next week.
Mariupol this week.
Then Russia was free to advance across the whole East.

How can you deal with vermin like Nazis?
It was done several times before. They rearmed, got far stronger and far more dangerous.
The concept was that it needs deNazification, deAmericanisation, de-Ukrainian Fascist "nationalism".

RT was pretty scary reading if u ask me.
All those lives just for the Donbass, which could have been taken in 10 minutes a few years ago.
Infact all of Bandera-stan wouldn't have taken long.

What happens with the Nazis? Back to power? Russian language, media, human rights for HALF the population or more? None of this is mentioned!

Putin played "Gandhi" from 2014 to 2022. What happened? It all got far far worse.
Why should a single Ru troop leave?

I told all you guys already, it's clear the operation was a failure and the strategy has already been modified several times already. First time after the first 3 days, when the Russian military was allowed to engage properly. Then again after a few more days, when the advance was slowed down. And now again, by shifting troops to the Donbass.

-The most optimistic variant was to pressure Kiev into agreeing to Russian terms by simply invading with troops and taking an approach of increasing demands, creating pressure. This failed, the Kiev regime and its Western backers switched to total war mode and immediate negotiations went nowhere. The fundamental miscalculation was that the Ukraine was a solitary actor to force into concessions - when in fact it's just an extension of the West and has its full backing.
-The next most optimistic variant was to try and shake apart the Ukrainian elite, separate the military from the regime and so on - as Putin suggested to them. This also failed and due to similar reasons. The Ukrainian elite was sure they would win and total war propaganda was too strong.
-The next one after that was to capture some territory and shake apart Kiev that way. Agreements were made with elites in Kharkov, Kherson, Chernigov at a minimum, and it was also expected that other regions would join in. With the exception of Kherson, and Melitopol and Energodar in Zaporozhie - this all failed too. Probably the nationalist extremists and garrisons in all these places spooked the elites away, as well as the popular reaction in the Ukraine to the operation, and Biden's declaration of maximum sanctions on Russia with the expectation that Putin will be overthrown.

These are all political failures

There were also the ideological failures, of Putin threatening to take apart the Ukrainian state, and the next day saying that all he's there to do is denazificaiton and demilitarization, and that he doesn't plan to occupy the Ukraine.
This ambiguity about Russian objectives and desires has been there since 2014, when Russia directly annexed the Crimea, and in the DNR/LNR constant declarations about joining Russia.
These sorts of things are not compatible with just regime change, or reformatting the Ukrainian state, and in fact only serves to fuel Ukrainian nationalism

The economic failures were not critical, just the confiscated reserves. Which are huge, but arguably the collective West has caused itself far more damage in the months and years to come.
Geopolitically likewise, Russia won this, and the West has come together in its battle against Russia, but at the same time has become isolated from the rest of the world.

Underestimation of Ukrainian military resistance and propaganda about Russian military losses was the next failure, this rallied the population there around the flag, and gave a big morale boost to Ukrainian forces. Their own losses were hidden from them and Russia could do nothing about it, it had little power in the information war.
The Russian advance genuinely suffered considerable losses, and had to be slowed down to preserve manpower, shifting to gradual advances and positional battles over key points, taking out artillery and tanks from the air and with its own artillery, as well as rocketing Ukrainian military infrastructure from stand-off range. This been pretty successful from the standpoint of destroying the operational capabilities and equipment of the Ukrainian army and causing it huge losses in manpower. However, without taking more territory, mobilization of Ukrainian reserves continues, even if there is little to arm them with - and the morale of the Ukrainian army is not broken, nor has the Ukrainian state lost control over most of its population

So what remains? Just to kill more Ukrainian military and attempt to break them, and the civilian population? Further provoke a mass humanitarian crisis as the country has no fuel left; meaning no sowing season, no deliveries of essential goods, a paralyzed economy?

It is clear that we have NATzO propaganda here. The FT story from anonymous sources is part of the "Russia is losing" propaganda.

kvs wrote:

It is clear that we have NATzO propaganda here.   The FT story from anonymous sources is part of the "Russia is losing" propaganda.

It's not clear what the result will be, but I remember I wrote early in the operation that Russia has nothing to do around Kiev.

And I was right. Russia is scaling down ops in this area and may withdraw.

If the operation continues, the next targets will be a DNR/LNR advance towards Kharkov, and Russian advance towards Nikolayev and Odessa. But there is no guarantee of this.

Could well be a new Khasavyurt accord. In the hopes that the Ukraine will destabilize and people that Russia can work with will arise there, while the US's hegemony in the world continues to erode, and the EU's own cohesion and economy declines. In regards to the last points, these process have already started and will continue regardless of war or peace in the Ukraine.

flamming_python wrote:

So what remains? Just to kill more Ukrainian military and attempt to break them, and the civilian population? Further provoke a mass humanitarian crisis as the country has no fuel left; meaning no sowing season, no deliveries of essential goods, a paralyzed economy?

Looking thro Serberus's comments and news-front.info I think things are a bit clearer.
Peskov says deNazification is still ongoing.

They've tried mini ceasefires to get civilians out etc. Russia had no intention Kiev before the Donbass cauldron etc etc.
Mariupol is virtually sorted. Kherson and much of Nikolaev are getting sorted. The main military of the Ukraine is obliterated, many Fascists are dead. Ending the Donbass cauldron will free up many more troops. Its a massive front and there was massive progrees made. Even in 2014 planners observed the problems of a mass troop involvement from Russia. I don't see any evidence to say the op "has been a disaster".

The reports don't exactly say there is some sort of revision of plans or some sort of ceasefire.
What I don't like is mentions of pricks like the US, Britain and Poland "guaranteeing" the Ukraine. Because all they've guaranteed is Nazism and shit.

My belief is that the operation will continue much like we were seeing for now. What they are all trying to signal ... I am not so sure. Clearly the Bandera-trash will lose. The question is how much each side pays to get to that. And to see if anyone gets any extra benefit from early cessation of hostilities. But deNazification is a big job. ANd if VVP binned that idea... then I would see big problems back in Russia.

Arkanghelsk wrote:"We have received written proposals from Ukraine confirming their readiness for a neutral, non-aligned and non-nuclear status, along with a refusal to produce and deploy all types of weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and bacteriological ones, and a ban on the presence of foreign military bases and foreign troops on the territory of the country", Medinsky said.

USA and Ukraine already got caught with 30 bio labs dine secret there will be no sure way if them not doing it again. They will be just more secretive this time round.

And what happens if once neutral status comes into play and russian troops leave, and NATO troops roll in against the agreement what then? The west can't be trusted and neither can zelensky. If zelensky and NATO breech the agreement which they most likely will. What then ? Russia slap sanctions on NATO?  Or do we go straight to WW3 nuclear holocaust?

In my opinion Russia didn't come all this way, lose troops, Donbass lose troops and civilians, loss of equipment, biggest sanction package ever, so settle on the Donbass and an agreement that can't be enforced if broken.

It's clear Ukraine is suffering and it's forces have lost masses of key equipment, with NATO unable to supply anything but small arms, stingers, anti tank weapons, cash and aid. Russia has them on the back foot hence they are now ready to start agreements now. I would say start phase 2 of the campaign. I can't imagine Putin's  image will be great if he settles on Donbass while families back home grieve over a lost son(soldier). There must be more to this deal than we know and ways to enforce it surely. If not I feel many pro Russian will be disappointed. If Russia encircled the Donbass and either mass withdrawal of Ukrainian forces or many killed and captured, this would put Russia in a far better position to put forward it's demands. This isn't a ceasefire, but sign that Russia is willing to ease it alittle in order to facilitate some agreement.

Just my 10 pence worth

Hope this is true.

"
Russian special forces captured two Ukrainian servicemen who participated in the torture of Russian soldiers, these are Sergey "Chili" Velichko and Konstantin Nemichev from the fan group of the local football club "Metalist" - State Duma deputy Vladimir Shamanov."


https://t.me/intelslava/23863

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1508789240884301831?s=20&t=PX_d9aJ4TAFHQKOiti4OoA

If Ukraine is in the EU, it is as if it were in NATO.

We have NATzO propaganda being spammed into this thread as if it has any relation to reality. The propaganda
narrative change from NATzO lie factory outlets in the last few days is that losing Russia changed focus on the
secondary LDNR front. Now it is surrendering in negotiations with the Kiev regime. This is retarded nonsense
and pollution on this forum.

kvs wrote:We have NATzO propaganda being spammed into this thread as if it has any relation to reality.   The propaganda
narrative change from NATzO lie factory outlets in the last few days is that losing Russia changed focus on the
secondary LDNR front.   Now it is surrendering in negotiations with the Kiev regime.    This is retarded nonsense
and pollution on this forum.  

I myself can only speculate, as we don't know the terms of any agreement, and agreements can fail before going into play. Neo Nazis groups may not agree with Ukrainian government and continue its genocidal acts thus breaking any agreement. I highly doubt Russia will reduce land it has already taken, at most solidify it's positions without advancing. But still be taking out any drones, aircraft, Tochka, AD systems, ammo dumps etc.

As previously reported,

Russia already captured a couple of nazis responsible for torturing POWs and they admitted to it during the first questioning.

https://t.me/istorijaoruzija/49501

Now, it will be interesting to see their videos and trial. Bellingcat and other western analytics are not disputing the fact that this was real, but Ukrainians are still claiming this video was fake...

I know it won't make a dent in informational warfare, but it's not about that. Let those idiots disappear in 1x1 cell for the rest of their miserable lives. Executing them would be too good.

par far wrote:Hope this is true.

"
Russian special forces captured two Ukrainian servicemen who participated in the torture of Russian soldiers, these are Sergey "Chili" Velichko and Konstantin Nemichev from the fan group of the local football club "Metalist" - State Duma deputy Vladimir Shamanov."


https://t.me/intelslava/23863

A broken phone. The general is old. He read in the telegram that their identity was established, and not captured.

sentinel112 wrote:

A broken phone. The general is old. He read in the telegram that their identity was established, and not captured.[/quote]

I double-posted this. Ok, at least ID was established... I hope to see them soon.

Thanks for the clarification.

Well according to Shoigu phase one over next phase is to liberate Donbass. Question is, is there a phase three and if so what will that be.

The first phase of the special military operation in Ukraine is ‘generally accomplished,’ according to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. The remarks were made in a briefing earlier today.

The operation will now move into a new phase, with the focus on liberating the Donbass, the minister added.

kvs wrote:We have NATzO propaganda being spammed into this thread as if it has any relation to reality.   The propaganda
narrative change from NATzO lie factory outlets in the last few days is that losing Russia changed focus on the
secondary LDNR front.   Now it is surrendering in negotiations with the Kiev regime.    This is retarded nonsense
and pollution on this forum.  

The initial RT article was pretty poor quality and perhaps had a spin intended for audiences in "enemy territory".
Obviously Russia has been keeping watch over Kiev+Kharkov while working on the Donbass cauldron, Mariupol, Nikolaev and as far afield as Turd-Central aka Lvov.

So logically speaking perhaps its about paving the way for the Banderite forces being cleared and then a sensible resolution ie
going where it would go anyway, but without extra slaughter of non extremist hohols.

To me the biggest question is what would a post operation region would look like.
With Kherson already using the |Rouble (to some extent) that would indicate progress.

d_taddei2 wrote:Well according to Shoigu phase one over next phase is to liberate Donbass. Question is, is there a phase three and if so what will that be.

The first phase of the special military operation in Ukraine is ‘generally accomplished,’ according to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu. The remarks were made in a briefing earlier today.

The operation will now move into a new phase, with the focus on liberating the Donbass, the minister added.

I would suspect that depends on how negotiations have progressed and where they are in demilitarization and denazification.

It is possible that this whole operation is about simply defeating the regime forces to liberate the DNR and LNR.
We have had comments from top Russian officials that a localized operation on the LDNR LOS would be a bad idea
since the regime would just throw in its resources from the rest of the country. A conveyor belt of tension.

But the Kherson situation tells me that the scope of the operation is much wider than the LDNR front. The
opening of the Crimean canal, rail links, the use of rubles implies a long term "occupation" in Kherson. I do not
see the value of retreating with some political deal. As soon as Russian forces move out, the Banderites and
NATzO will return. I am quite sure that the Russian leadership is fully aware of this and would not be making
such moves without a long term plan.

People will claim that if Russia occupies the central-eastern part of "Ukraine" then it will get bogged down and there
will be a massive insurgency. I don't think so. We do not have this insurgency now and it is Banderite agents
of the regime. These can be rooted out. The population is not committed to the Banderite cause. That is true
even if it does not love Russia. This population will accept the rule of Russia just as it accepted the rule of Banderites
in Kiev.

You guys are so confident about the continuation of the operation

But greater geopolitical realities override it. There's Turkey's status as a fake-neutral country and the restart of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, although that can be overcome.
There are China's and India's opinions about the need for a ceasefire
There are economic realities in Russia as well, even despite the fact that Europe is taking a massive hit. Both sides only lose and thus the mood for compromise

During the 2014-2015 war the rebels were also winning, and were soon to enter Mariupol. But then Minsk-2 was signed.
Of course Russia will give up any military gains for a political arrangement it either finds expedient, or acceptable given the circumstances.

After the Kalibr strikes early this morning that struck Nikolaev, now there are Kalibrs hitting deep in Western Ukraine again. The big airbase in Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region was hit by a big bunch.

I think it was struck in February already, but it wasn't crippled then, it supposedly has been now.

Operations around Kharkov have intensified as well.

Also, Telegram channels show multiple seized Bayraktar PGMs, by some Russian forces. I don't know where from. Interesting anyhow, the much hyped UCAV was really a big flop, with very few successful strikes, pretty much all of them shot down, and now unused weapons from them have been captured on the ground even.

VARGR198 wrote:

https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1508569968203509761

Not quite so secret though. This once off prototype was a 90's product mainly intended for the export market.

There will be no peace in Ukraine because one of Russia's key demands on the Kiev regime is recognition of Crimea and Donbass. The Nazis will never allow that and should the clown sign in Kyiv, he will simply be dead a day later... just like two negotiators from Kyiv were killed by the Nazis just like that. Because of the Ukrainian propaganda the Kiev regime cannot allow a peace treaty either, because they are winning and are close to Moscow.

The war will end at the latest when the Ukrainians are too tired of the Nazis' nonsense or the Nazi troops are pushed back far into the West. I think maybe 6-12 months to go...low intensity fighting under the international radar...everyone will forget this conflict in 2 months much like Yemen.

You will find that the West admits defeat when Ukraine is no longer the headline in the news. It just doesn't get reported anymore, just like Afghanistan magically disappeared from the media.

Isos wrote:
Military speaking it was stupid to open so many fronts because they don't have enough soldiers to hold all of them and a concentrated attack on Donbas would have been better to liberate it. But they would have automatically created a western ukraine state.

No it wasn't! It takes a lot of time to eradicate the anti russian brainwashing from Nazi propaganda and they started step by step.

On the other hand, Russia can always choose an area of ​​the huge front to launch an offensive there. It is certainly also a disadvantage for the defender, because he cannot protect all cities and regions at the same time. Troops can be moved within 2-5 days, but should Ukraine move large troop formations, they can be destroyed from the air and by artillery.