Ukraine situation after DPR, LPR recognition by Russia

So basically Russia move was ....
A temporary recognition of the independence of Donbass ,until kiev regime completely implement
the minsk2 agreements they agree to make.

There is nothing temporary about it... I rather doubt considering the actions of Kiev over the last few years that these regions ever want to return to rule from Kiev even after having good long chats with them... and lets face it... what likelyhood is there of Kiev even talking to them let alone listening.

in real practice kiev regime will never recognize minsk2 accords and will not negotiate ,
because allowing factions pro Russia federation ,to participate in elections , be part of their pairliament and have a vote , and organize to get a pro russian government in power ,will be suicide

These regions don't have the population to effect the results of elections in Kiev... I doubt they will want to return to the fold considering their treatment these last few years and the years before that...

some ukies seems that forgot to check their gps locators, when tried to sneak on donbass.
and had to pay a big price .  perhaps it was russian army that jammed their gps and they did not knew were in russia territory.  

Near such a hot border... there is no way these men got lost....

This "independence" recognition by Russia , was done , for public relations , to justify the entry of the
russian army in defense of donbass when they attacked by kiev.

It abides by international law and allows Russia to act to protect those regions for their former capital who seems to want to genocide them to get them to move off the land so they can seize it.

Much like Saakashvili wanted to do in South Ossetia... shell them to make them leave and occupy the land...

This is going to happen if the Ukraine refuses Moscow's overtures towards returning to the Minsk agreemenets.

Who cares what Kiev wants to do.... they can talk or they can not talk... but now if they use violence and shelling the leaders of these regions can ask Russia for help and I am sure Russia would be keen to solve those sorts of problems.

Which it is in all rights to do, Russia has changed the terms by invading.

Russia has not invaded anyone, they are invited guests.

A bit like HATO forces in Kosovo... exactly like HATO forces in Kosovo... but without years of interference and bombing and sanctions.

And I am against any war spreading to there where people haven't had it. Even if they are unhappy with the regime.

What war... now that these regions have Russian support they can ask Kievs forces to withdraw from their territory... you know... just like before the Crimea declared independence they were Ukrainian territory that Russia could do nothing about.

Is a violation of minsk by Russia , but so kiev have been violating minsk accords too for 8 years ,

Not even close. Russia is not a legal party to the Minsk agreements and had no obligations at all. Kiev was required to open discussions with these regions and negotiate some sort of mutually acceptable agreement... at that time they had already declared their independence because of the shelling they got from Kiev there was no way they could consider they were ever going to govern them again I suspect.

Russia has no obligations under Minsk and their recognition of independence for any member is not relevant to the obligations of Kiev.

Still it can be reversed if ukraine step back and return to do ,what they told was going to do.. and implement minsk2 accords. if kiev do nothing , then atleast now ukies will know there will be a strong
response from russia if attack their military in donbass.

I could understand why Kiev wants to reverse the current situation, but why would these breakaway regions want to be controlled by the city and government that has been murdering them and calling them Russian invaders for the last few years?

likely there will be a lot of modernized t-75 and t-90 tanks too.. as show of force.
donbass will become a Russian military fortress .

You mean the way Eastern Europe and former Soviet states like the Baltics and Ukraine have become filled with HATO weapons and advisers and equipment and secret listening stations?

Yeah... so what?

I was hoping Russia would just hold off on any decision and weather the storm. But that said they cant just let Ukraine ravage the little republics

If Kiev wasn't sporadically shelling these regions and even Russia itself I am sure he wouldn't have bothered, but when the Ukraine is shelling civilians and talking about getting its own nukes then the response was pretty quick really... though they did talk about nukes in the past and nothing happened.

I guess Putin is not as patient as he used to be, but unlike western politicians... he sticks to international law.

If Russia ends up with a war in the Ukraine, with all these little manuevers, then maybe it should have never posted its demands against NATO in the first place?

For Fucks sake FP... it wasn't a bank robber handing the police a list of demands... it was just Russia demanding the West does what it promised to do and give Russia a bit of respect... and those couldn't do either... so **** them... what I really want to know is why you are so upset about it... it is the message the west has been sending for the last 30 years and now it is sinking in... you can't live in their house unless you are the maid and the gardener and the driver all rolled in to one.

All this shit is doing is turning Russia into an oppressor against the self-determination of Ukrainians, and turning Zelensky into a martyr.

By recognising their rights to not be shelled by their own government and recognising their international right to declare independence from actual oppressors, Russia is the only sensible actor in this fucked up play.

Western countries happy to watch people burned to death and shelled because they wanted to speak Russian instead of learn some monkey language most of them didn't speak until they were forced to.

If Russia wants to take the rebel regions so then take them, but why insist on Minsk to be implemented afterwards?

Russia isn't taking anything. US and UK troops on Ukrainian soil is not the US or UK invading either BTW.

This is not good either, in a time of confrontation.

It is the smartest and safest solution to end the confrontation... there is no way Kiev can invade now, so that is off the table, which only leaves them doing nothing, or talking to these new republics... and I suspect with Russian recognition these regions are not going to want anything to do with Kiev now... Russia will open its borders and trade will be restored that those idiots in Kiev closed down... these regions don't have any sanctions against Russia and Russia none against these regions... border regions that have traded with Russia for living memory.

Why are you not happy FP... there was no other solution that would not involve a lot of violence and death.

I'm against war, what don't you understand?

And how can you not understand that previously the choice was in the hands of Zelensky as to whether he risked an invasion or not... the chances of that have practically gone... this follows international law and nobody has to die... in fact that border shelling should ease up now too.

And Kiev can put its money where its mouth is and either start negotiations with these regions to try to get normal relations going again... these regions could act as middle men so the Ukraine could recover some of its economy by trading through these regions so their moron masters in the west can pretend everything is OK and Russia is isolated.

The objective is not just these 2 tiny territories. What happens when the Ukraine refuses to abide by Minsk outright, this time with all legal justification?

What difference would that make? They going to hold their breath till Russia gives them all their land back?

Kiev can rip up Minsk, but either way, according to international law these regions have the right to declare independence so they have lost these regions either way.

They had plenty of time for talk and they didn't need to murder and shell these people for not having the same views on speaking a different language and they blew it.

Move on... like Serbia had to... like Georgia had to...

The situation was: Ukraine didn't give a shit and would shell and kill civilians. Russia looked bad for not attempting to protect these civilians and the world saw Russia as weak.

Yes, despite the west also letting them murder people in cold blood and not giving a shit about these people because they upheld the Kiev view that these were pro Russians, which it seems justifies a death sentence in western circles... how evil is that...

Ukraine kept goading Russia and the LDNR for years now with western help. Both UK and US and Canada actively pushing Ukraine to start the conflict.  So what do they do? They started attacking at civilians and LDNR forces yet again.  They have done this multiple times now every year for now 8 years.

And have mobilised their meagre forces to the border regions as a provocation... which the western media ignore but you can tell it is a provocation because of their reaction to the Russian military response of also mobilising their forces in response... western media is going apeshit over that, but not what Kievs forces are doing... Russian forces are not shelling over the border killing civilians... yet.

As for looking like a bad guy and what not, this was decided by CNN, BBC, and every other western outlet. They all determined Russia was the bad guy. Like how China is always the bad guy, or how Modi is always the bad guy, or how Duterte is always the bad guy. What does it matter? It doesn't.

They cry wolf so often it actually simply makes sense now to ignore them completely... or just take their message as the opposite of what it is, or they are blaming someone for doing something the west does... it is like a code... they have a gun to their heads and are trying to tell us...

Nordstrom 2 now gone.

I hope so...

>nordstream 2 was going to get shut down no matter what. America is desperate to shut it down. Look what they tried to pull in Syria in an attempt to get pipelines to run thru turkey and bypass Russia. This isnt a game. The west has ideologically insane leaders.

Which is why it is so good when they lose like this because people get to live who would otherwise be sacrificed so some western  already worth billions can make a little more money.

Lot of hysteria about those sanctions but the only one imposed are not on Russia but those two republics by US.

I suspect after supporting their invasion and massacre with loans and weapon donations that these two regions probably weren't expecting a lot of trade with the west... their geographical location suggests most trade was with Russia, which has probably been hurting them, but now they can openly trade and make their own deals and agreements things should probably get much better.

Perhaps they can join the SCO... and other groups Russia is a member of...

Supply the DNR/LNR with more artillery and make the Ukrainians take losses every time they try shelling

What would Russia do if Finland was shelling its territory sporadically like this?

At the end of the day, Russia's ultimatum was to NATO, not to the Ukraine. Find other ways to create problems for them.

And neither was listening. Now they might listen.

The 'option' that has been taken instead is cynical, and yes indeed, will cause many problems for Russia internationally, sanctions or no sanctions.

Those regions declared independence before the Minsk agreements, and Russia has every right to recognise their independence... just like HATO had the right to recognise Kosovos independence... where is the international condemnation and sanctions for that... and it wasn't even voted for by the people...

And this whole dressing down and intimidation of Naryshkin, Putin playing it cool like Stalin, assuming it wasn't an act.

It was very clear.... Naryshkin said what the west was thinking... Russia is absorbing these regions into the Russian federation... so called annexing them like they did with Crimea... and Putin corrected him that these are Ukrainians and Russia recognises their independence from Kiev... for reasons that are obvious to everyone reading this.

Russia can end up in proper isolation.

That ship has sailed... the west clearly does not want good relations or equal relations... get over it... move on.... man up and look to the rest of the world which is full of countries keen to grow and develop with partners that treat them as equals rather than as staff or worse, as items in a pantry.

China itself is probably not interested in a complete break in Russian-European relations.

China will be upset if the EU rejects Russia and Russia accept that rejection and look elsewhere, but it is the EU rejecting Russia... Russia has been trying for teh last 30 years to be accepted... to build a super state from the Atlantic to the Pacific across Europe and Asia and the EU wants no part of that... and Russia is banging its head against a wall thinking that will change.

Russia publicly committed to not invading, and to recognizing the territorial integrity of the Ukraine just over the past few weeks. Now it has violated all the same positions.

It hasn't invaded anyone... it has been invited. The west recognised the territorial integrity of Serbia just before accepting Kosovo as a new independent country... do you remember that?

How can it not be OK within international law if the west did it?

HATO can choose who joins HATO... Russia can decide which regions who want autonomy that it recognises as independent too.

Who can take Russian diplomacy or commitments seriously now? This is not just a question of NATO and the US.

Like it or not, Russia is following international law... unlike the west who would have invaded and regime changed Kiev years ago.

I hope it does not escalate in a bloodbath, I am of opinion tough Putin is right in doing this and i understand his decision.

This option by Putin is their best chance at there not being any more major fighting.

You claimed Russia wouldn’t get directly sanctioned and they wouldn’t cancel nord stream 2.

The only things sure in life are death and taxes and the west is going to add more sanctions against Russia.

They can cancel the certification of NSII but unless they actually blow it all up with demolition charges at some later date they can open it up and use it...

Especially if the pipes through the Ukraine stop working for some reason.

Big sanctions on Russia today. Should have just invaded.

The beauty of this plan is that they can now openly interact with these regions including trade and entering into military defence agreements to protect their borders and no conflict needs to start.

Zelensky might try an invasion, but with Russian troops in place... well he knew if Russian troops got involved they couldn't win unless HATO troops supported them and even then they likely wouldn't win.

He might invade anyway... which means  Russia has had the chance to forward deploy which is an advantage anyway.

I did not see the necessity of recognizing the DNR/LNR either. Kiev did not break Minsk outright.

The fact that there is no schedule or timetable means they can break it without breaking it, but they have not even attempted to follow through on their obligations in the agreement which suggests they never intended to follow through.

The agreement is still valid and they can try to talk now but I rather suspect they wont be interested in listening now... no reason to and Kiev only has itself to blame.

The whole phony war was a farce, and it's unclear who kicked things off. No Russian soldiers were killed. There was no justification for Russian forces entering the regions.

Russian forces were invited.... it seems these regions are being shelled occasionally by a neighbour that is above international law... Russian forces are there to help I suspect.

One thing to shell civilians, but another to shell Russian soldiers who can fire back.

Moreover many Western countries were at least giving the appearance of undertaking diplomatic efforts. And appearance is important. All of them affirmed the Minsk agreements.

**** them... if there were medals for talking shit they would fall forward under the weight of metal on their chests... they were enabling Kiev to murder its own people... people you were recently complaining were getting killed and Putin does nothing.

Well Putin solved the problem without breaking his own rules or international rules.

SO I don't know what now. How Russia will get out of this. And again, it's not just a matter of NATO and the US. You really can't break the international order so blatantly.

It is OK... it is a unique situation.... the west will understand. These regions probably never had much trade with HATO or the US before anyway...

Get out of what... they have a new friendly neighbour that will likely want to join defense arrangements and cooperate and trade with them... this is is a great situation for both parties... them... and Russia... for Kiev... for the EU... for the US... they don't respect or care about Russia, there is nothing to talk about.

Putin forced all his security council members to publicly voice the preference of recognizing the DNR/LNR. This means they're all in it together with him.

It is the best solution possible and not to toot my horn, I was suggesting it, because it worked in Georgia and it will work now.

It is the best of a shit set of choices... invasion was never an option so the other option was wait and sacrifice more of these people to Kievs criminal army.

Or just bomb the one that goes through Kiev and put them in front of the fait accompli. Either buy through NS2 or no gas.

It is not going to keep working forever... and Kiev is just as likely to want to try to use it as leverage against the EU as it is against Russia.... but both already have alternative pipelines.

They talk about capacity but even if it is not enough you can run it at full capacity all year to supply and also fill storage tanks if you wanted to... it is not like they run at 100% capacity 24/7 at the moment.

Well its looking like Russia has added to the economic crisis for the West, a diplomatic crisis. And the Ukraine is just an instrument here, in reality the stakes are far wider.

Just another chess move in this whole thing

There is the risk of war though and it can't be discounted.

Picture Wile Coyote returning to a stick of dynamite that did not explode when he expected it too... when his own trap blows up in his own face it is funny, but you continue to blame the Road Runner who is the intended victim...

The west created the mess and as long as Russia does not occupy Kiev it is the wests mess to clean up.

West to weaken its position in the UN and international diplomacy by bargaining away many of its cards over lesser countries in return for their support.

The wests support for what?

Screw them... and screw Kiev.... they made their bed and now they can lie in it.

These new regions will be keen to trade with Russia and will likely grow and develop rapidly... I hope other regions in the Ukraine see this and think about their choices and options... the west doesn't care about them and they are not going to pump any money into the country to make things better for them either.

I hope Russia does not make the mistake of taking them back and funding them... keep them at arms length and just trade with them... no special favours or charity that they have seriously not earned.

While China will play good cop and eventually step in as an honest broker.

China is already licking its wounds from its interactions with Kiev... I don't think they want to help either.

The Saudis already tried to crush Russia with the oil price. The Saudis failed and blinked first.
Now the US is talking to Qatar to give LNG they would have delivered to Japan to Europe. This should work swell... most of the Japanese nuclear reactors are still offline because of Fukushima.
Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

They want the cheap energy Russia is sending to Europe to stay in Russia, but instead it will go to Asia and will be good for growth... cheap energy always is good for growth... but the EU is ignoring the bus the west is pushing it under.

Let's hope Putin doesn't execute his intelligence chief.

He is just highlighting that they are recognising these regions as independent and are not annexing them or taking them over in any way.

When they invite Russia to send troops to help them with their belligerent neighbour to the west then Russia will oblige of course... like the good friendly neighbour they are... no one likes unnecessary bloodshed.

I think it is good to cancelled, it frees up Russia to make moves it could not make.

And probably a bit of a wind fall regarding fees and penalties for breach of contract I suspect.

Mistral has been cancelled again... except this pipeline was about cheap abundant uninterruptable gas supplies for Germany and EU countries down the pipeline from them...

Nothing is cancelled, Baerbock and idiots from green party have suspended certification

Daimler and Thyssenkrupp will sick the bundestag on them, watch the Intra German shit show

When German industry think this through their might be a coup in Germany as well as Kiev.

But tell me, what happens to Germany's manufacturing base when they no longer have access to cheap energy?

They could move it to Russia where gas is cheap and reliable.

Again, should the ukies refuse to comply and fight back with drones and tactical aviation, they will only grant the VKS ample training opportunities against somehow obsolete yet real world targets like combat aircraft, SAM sites, air bases etc. In case anyone was forgetting about it, there are a lot of new weapons to test and Ukraine is far closer and more convenient grounds than Syria

It is also important to test equipment and weapons in European conditions not present in Syria...  

The Operation is so far a Georgia 2.0 OP, of which the U.S/UK have clearly gamed well (they actually let it out loud they preferred this scenario - and baited for this scenario). Where it goes from here is another thing entirely.

Of course... everything that happens is just going according to their secret plans, which they always hint at before hand but you never mention until it happens...

Nothing much in the chessboard has changed except a necessary measure on a chunk of Ukranian territory was taken by the Kremlin, which has resulted in economic and political costs for Russia.

The only parts of the Ukraine worth a damn.... Crimea and now these two regions are in Russias sphere of influence... funny that... how is that part of the wests great plan?

Kiev, as a client regime is still alive - as the anti-Russian project that it's. As such, Russia has not yet put an end definitively to the anti-Russian project in historical Russian lands, and as such it will continue to linger, doing what it's meant to do... serve as a source of tension, destabilization and staging area for anti-Russian activity.

It is in Russian interests to keep the Kiev regime alive for as long as possible... asking for support and getting it... asking for help and getting weapons the west wants thrown away donated... more loans so even the next five generations of Ukrainians will be paying off loans on loans...

It is not Russias problem any more.

The Americans don't have to move a single finger militarily and wage hot war on Russia. It has never been in the cards. This is an expendable puppet regime whose sole purpose is to hurt Russia and serve its geopolitical designs.

Yeah... sitting on the roof of a truck they are supposed to be driving as it goes over Niagra Falls while trying to throw fireworks at the guy in the car going the opposite way but the wind keeps catching the crackers and blowing them back into his face where they immediately explode.... Wile Coyote style...

It's perfect in doing so and it's following the script. The whole re-armament of "Ukraine" takes into consideration the fact that they will be wiped out by Russia in the eventuality of an actual invasion - it's not in doubt. The goal is simple, to provide and facilitating resistance, to bog down the enemy (Russia) and cause visible loses, should Russia decide to evict Washignton from Kiev by force, like Washington did to Russia in 2014. Two different beasts play this game, one however knows how to exact cost on its rival, the other, well, it's a fumbling mess of a player.

So the Western endgame only makes sense and only works if Russia invades Kiev and tries to occupy that hostile state... which I keep telling you and Putin keeps telling you he is not interested in.

The people of the Ukraine need to save themselves... Russia isn't coming to save you.

Pleased to see the tradition is being maintained

Hahaha... yeah... Poros personal wealth increased like 800% when he was in office too and he was already rather well off...

Oil price goes up, American producers benefit just much as Russian ones to recoup their loses.

As the price goes up American frackers might break even but not enough to pay back what they owe... their stack of cards is still going to collapse as their estimates of how much oil was left was hopelessly optimistic...

. As far as I'm aware the U.S has no plans to sanction Russian crude deliveries and take them off market like they did with Venezuela or Iran. Even if they did they wouldn't have the same level of success as with those two countries, even if it actually results in lowering Russia's marketshare. It won't be a significant amount.

Maybe as a counter sanction Putin might ban sales of oil and gas to the EU and US for a period of 2 years and then come back after two years to decide whether to extend it or end it...

Russia is being decoupled from the West little by little, from financial services, to access to capital, to access to tech, to access to western markets. Picture perfect containment policy.

Which will result in Russia creating alternatives for all of these things, which China and other countries in the rest of the world will join weakening western control over the world and making the planet less evil.

The Chinese and Asia are not currently perfect substitutes for such loss - there are no parallel structures.

Replacement structures and services will need to be created.... Russia talked about dropping the dollar for decades and only eventually did so when the US started using its dollar as a weapon against Russia. This is good because it would have been easy for Russia just to slowly integrate with the western controlled systems and then would have been tied much more tightly to the west.

It's the "you either do business with us or with the Russians" conundrum. Not all enterprises will chose to keep doing business so as to avoid the risk. Even those enterprises that chose business with Russia over the West due believed lack of exposure or the nature of the economic activity can still be coerced by punitive sanction measures - level of which range from a slap in the wrist to bankruptcy level "fines". It's extreme coercion. Ask Cuba and Venezuela - they know all about it - Russia and China, while they help, can't fully substitute.

The more you control the more they will seek to escape your grasp, by using international systems to limit and contain, the more you create the need for independent alternatives and make them strong enough to replace your instruments of control and you end up with no control at all.

These will hurt, and they're not even the nuclear ones. As such, as I've argued here endlessly: If you're going to bring so much pain to yourself, you better get rid of the little Kiev problem once and for all, not allow it to linger, while still paying the price for it as if you did get rid of it (while you clearly haven't). It's Putin's and cadre's call, ever since that fateful day in 2014 where this went overdrive (by design) and he balked.

Yes.... Russias only escape and solution is to fall into the trap of an endless painful war against your nazis.

No thanks.

Mission not accepted.

So if the republics are recognized and Ukrainian military shells them that means they will get shelled back this time?

If shells land from territory inside the borders of these new regions Russian troops with the local police could go to the source location the shells were fired from and attempt to arrest the criminals... so by all means fire away...

The World can now see that the US is not the power it was, this whole operation, seemingly designed to help Biden domestically, has morphed into a strategic blunder of monumental proportions, almost certainly a whole row of nails in the US$ coffin.

Trump will be working on his re-election speech if Biden runs again...

Even Trump called it genius...

https://www.rt.com/russia/550312-trump-putin-savvy-donbass/

Bryan MacDonald is still stuck in thinking Europe only exists and not Asia.

Fairly common thinking in the west... something Putin has been trying recently to open their eyes regarding but without a lot of success so far... give them time though.

So NS2 got the boot and Russia is getting clamped hard, I thought the experts here said that'd never happen. More sanctions will be on the way, You don't roll out all sanctions at once you need to do them piece by piece.

Wrong on both counts.

**** NS2, it was Russia supplying cheap energy to Germany so they could remain competitive in the production market.

And if you are going to cut someone off you do everything at once because if you don't break them... if they don't think they have no future without you then you just make them independent and not need you any more. The slow gradual cuts from the west have sometimes been painful, but they clean the wound and replaced whatever thing you ripped away from them with something they made and they controlled and can now offer to others to help them get off your machine of control.
The real struggle is to find anything the west can actually do to Russia that they have not already done... interfere in elections... isolate them... ban them from sports events... it is almost like you don't care...  

Not to mention if Putin doesn't enter Ukraine now, this only made its case for NATO stronger.

As HATO made quite clear there is no way for Russia to stop the Ukraine from entering HATO... except now the Ukraine that can enter HATO doesn't have a border with Russia any more.

Now that NS2, harder sanctions are coming, He has no real reason not to go in.

No reason to go in at all.

All that heavy traffic of tanks and military vehicles would clear away the overgrowth blocking their motorways...

Russian rebels a lot of fucking retards are the one who shot it down. This has proven over and over everywhere. It’s fair play by me. It was a big mistake. I wouldn’t admit to it either. Ukraine is ultimately to blame for not diverting air traffic over a war zone

Ahh please... that fairy story was BS from Bellingcat... a western intel front... you believe that shit?

The Orcs shot that plane down... no question at all... even the Malaysians know it... it was their plane but they were not allowed to be party to the investigation because they didn't just want to blame Russia they wanted the truth and the west knew they couldn't handle the truth...

[quoet]Ruble seems to be holding up ok. My friends in Russia aren’t too worried. This first wave of sanctions isn’t that bad. We will see. Maybe Russia is finally independent enough to where sanctions won’t matter. [/quote]

The more they use them the less effect they have on Russia... bet there are a few western banks pissed off... they wont be trading with Russian banks for fun or for Charity.... they were probably making good money and now that is over because of the Ukraine of all things... hahaha.

China takes their lunch money

And since manufacturing sector is the basis of modern German statehood you can do the math

Made even worse because that cheap gas is going to be redirected to China so they can have cheap relatively clean energy...

The US is making the EU shoot itself and the EU is keen to pull that trigger...

There is a video of the morons bragging about it.

A video recovered a few weeks after the attack by the Ukrainian FSB no doubt... Zelensky is probably in it as an actor pretending to be a rebel... his Russian is better than his Ukrainian still.

A bunch of pisdabols used a buk’s fire control radar for target acquisition and that’s the result. Not sure why people on this forum keep denying and lying about it. Mistakes happen

Yeah, anyone can take a modern SAM and use it effectively in a combat zone... but it was the Ukraine forces that had BUKs in that location and it was the Ukraine that controlled the airspace and ordered the plane to fly through... one of hundreds that flew through that day so hard to tell why anyone on the ground would think anything special about that aircraft flying past... why did they only shoot down one plane?

What did they even shoot it down with?

The only BUKs of that missile type in that region were Ukrainian as revealed a few weeks later when a BUK vehicle being moved crashed into a building while moving through an urban area... even though the orcs denied it.

There is plenty of open source information that points to rebels just fucking up. That’s that. Just like Iran shot that plane down.

There was a very carefully managed and controlled investigation which Malaysia, who owned the plane, were not happy with.

Iran did shoot down that plane, the admited it. The rebels claim it was the Orcs that shot down this plane and the Orcs deny it and are trying to pin the blame on the rebels... no surprise there, but not really convincing enough to blame them... most evidence points to Ukraine... Ukrainian forces could just as easily have shot it down by mistake too... maybe they thought Putin was on it.

Looks Russia will take Kharkiv and Mariupol next. But I don’t understand the slow play. They should have just blitz a quick invasion. Now they are letting ukrops dig in and yankee to send more weapons and try to destabilize with economic warfare. There is no benefit to move slow. I just don’t see it. Don’t see it at all. Dullard Putin let them arm Ukraine right under his nose while he rants about Lenin.

It is done... it is over... this is all they wanted... for the shelling to stop and this is the only way that was going to have any chance of happening.

Putin wasn't interested in Kiev in 2014 and isn't interested now... let it go.

Yeah if I was in command Ukraine 2014 would have been crushed like a bug because I would have sent VDV forces to crush the uprising.

They would have loved Putin doing that... they would fly in special forces to murder police and army and civilian alike... they would have gotten those Georgian Snipers they used in Maidan and had them shoot as many people as they could everywhere they could... both sides... really stir things up and get everyone angry at everyone else and then start pumping islamic nutters from Idlib... that solves two problems at once for Turkey... gets rid of some nutters and potentially kills some more Russians... America and the EU would support that...

And what the hell would you do with the Ukraine once you took it?

Spend trillions and the next 50 years fixing the place.

Instead it’s been 8 years of hell for Russia with a nato thorn in its side.

HATO will always be a problem... they are anti Russia by definition, their role is to keep Russia and the EU at each others throats.

Hardly hell for Russia... quite a few thousand Ukrainians died but they were being killed by other Ukrainians and not Russians so it is hardly Russias fault or problem.

I suspect the fact that Minsk was going nowhere and Kiev continued to agitate and kill people forced Putin to act, and this is the best solution of any other.

No war is needed, but even if there is maybe it will result in a better situation than the bloody stalemate they had.

[qutoe]Reminds me of how you said Russia won't get sanctioned and NS2 wont be canned.[/quote]

Everyone knew Russia was going to be sanctioned... even if it did nothing... that dickhead Blinken even hinted at it saying that if Russia didn't back down and withdraw their troops from their own territory that the US would impose sanctions for continuing the standoff... so they were coming one way or the other.

Administrative borders or contact line ? Well neither ! If we are talking about true independent for LDPR , then it must be a viable state . Conditions are not the same as it existed within the larger state . Therefore must insure , access to fresh water and agricultural land , at a minimum . This may involve acquisitions , further than present administrative boundary , but not short of them .

This region borders Russia and likely had most of its trade and relations in that direction rather than the other more european direction, which is probably another reason they wanted independence because they likely would suffer the most cutting off trade with Russia.

I suspect cut off from Kiev but connected to Russia that these regions will do just fine... if not amazing compared with the rest of the Ukraine still under Kievs rule.

- Russia is isolating itself deeper on international stage and slowly turning into hermit state.

The west is isolating Russia but needs too many of its resources to cut it off completely...

Russia is certainly turning away from the west... or more accurately is accepting the push from the west to leave its orbit.

BRICSA can be the kernel of an alternative to the west... I wonder how long the EU will continue to take orders from the US as gas prices make gas non viable and they start to look at alternatives that are all more expensive and damaging to the environment they claim to love so much.

- Suddenly sclerotic NATO dinosaurs has a purpose and is back to functional life thanks to Russia.

HATO will struggle to prepare for a peer enemy... they will need to spend trillions on an IADS for a start if they want to really be any sort of challenge, and the proliferation of the F-35 is going to financially cripple the countries of HATO that adopt it...

- No one sane in Europe will work now with Russia and include it in any security architecture, trade links will be under scrutiny as well as financial and energy links, list goes on...

You would be surprised... most western companies and organisations don't work with Russia for fun or for charity... they do so to make money and they make good money... it is the politicians that are cutting that, those businessmen and women want to keep making money.

When France cancelled the Mistral deal I am sure the French ship builders knew there would have been a second order for two more ships that was coming and now it is not...

-Russia is not considered any more stable and reliable energy provider to Europe - even if any change on that front would mean huge costs and not easy or quick solution. EU will speed up transition to renewables and hydrogen as well as diversify supplies to reduce dependency on Russia, they would not ask for a price.

The problems with gas supplies to the EU were created by the EU demanding spot prices and cancelling or not renewing long term contracts which kept prices stable and relatively low. The only other problems came from the Ukraine stealing gas meant for other customers, which the EU blamed Russia for.

Is suspect Gazprom are just hoping the west does something stupid like demand all contracts cancelled and pipes to Russia blocked at the EU end.

China is vastly more reasonable and stable and sensible...

[quoet]-Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia and of course will not give a damn if Russian soldiers are on its own territory so potential that crisis will spill out in future is huge.[/quote]

Ukraine was never going to negotiate, they still think the Crimea is their territory... so now there is a little bit more territory for them to moan about.

-Ukraine will speed up its national consolidation, perhaps it will start to develop more long range weapons and missiles as a mean for access denial - it will not be able to challenge Russia but will be able to increase Russian costs and risks further up.

All that will do is justify Russia in completely stomping them out of existence if they try anything.

-Russia will have to pump up billions into rebel territories and will have to secure it with thousand of soldiers permanently.

No they wont. They can just open their borders and trade with them openly and fairly and these regions will recover on their own... the Russian troops based inside Russia on the old border with the Ukraine can be moved to their new border with Kiev.

All in all Putin is desperate and getting more delusional as he is getting older. His problem is that world has moved away, USSSR does not exist anymore and Russia is not USSSR.

Putin recognised two new countries in Europe... just like the west recognised Kosovo in 2008.

Except in recognising these new regions he greatly reduced the chance of the crazy neighbour invading and killing people in a genocide, whereas in Kosovo, western recognition resulted in a lot of history being destroyed and local people hounded out of their homes and scared away by terrorists.

He had chance to build stable and strong relationship

Relationship with who?

Russia has already been told that HATO and the US don't respect them enough to honour the promises they made about expanding HATO and other things Russia thinks are important... and after that the chance of stability and a strong relationship are kinda gone aren't they?

The west is just going to keep on with the regime change and expanding closer to Russian borders and the new sanctions because of made up shit.

Russia was theirs to lose and they have lost her.

and prestige of Russia on international stage however because of his delusions Russia has probably the lowest prestige since collapse of USSSR and no soft power left in its inventory. It is pretty grim legacy and it is question how and will Russia be able to dig itself up from hole in which it is now.

That would be the view from CNN and Fox News and the BBC, but most of the rest of the world are impressed... even Trump thinks Biden was outplayed.

Since then we've quietly watched as Russia has gone from a CNN News joke recipient to a very strong nation that, while not to be feared does garner a goodly amount of respect including all of my very few friends left in SehSha and most any 'government' of 'the west' that has a lick of sense.

A very good point... Russia is considered a power, and even her former enemies respect her and will do business with her... the Taliban... Turkey... Azerbaijan... Israel... and also China and Argentina... they were never traditional allies... even Hungary... a HATO member will agree to long term gas contracts with Russia because they know they both benefit and they know Russia has never used it to influence Hungary in any way.... there have never been any threats... vote this way or we turn off the gas from Russia.

You wont get such trust and respectibility from the US or EU for that matter.

I don't think he is Delusional, he tried to talk it out. He honestly didn't want war in Ukraine, he wanted a Neutral Ukraine. But it was clear to him, that would never be agreed upon.

I myself would have taken that deal, a Neutral Ukraine that doesn't take anyone's side would have been a fair compromise.

Compared with the current situation a neutral Ukraine would have been the Wests best option, but that ship has now sailed.

However his problem is now, everyone in the West will not take kindly to his actions whether you think Russia provoked or was provoked it doesn't matter.

Why do you think it is so important what the west thinks?

The west recognised Kosovo quickly enough, I would think two more states in the region they can bribe and colour revolutionise would be right up their alley... except of course these states are born with a likely strong dislike for the west.

His main goal was to keep NATO out of Ukraine at this stage, He has given the west and Ukraine every single reason to have it enter NATO. If he steps at those two regions then he is a fool. Because NATO will move into the rest of Ukraine.

Pretty sure Kiev wont accept these new republics, and as such it now has three regions in dispute, so I would think quite a few HATO members would object to inheriting a war with Russia...

His recognition of those two regions was likely so the shelling would stop and also so he could point out that Kievs forces are all in places they are not supposed to be so why isn't the west controlling its dogs?

Now he can supply arms to these regions and offer all sorts fo military and political and economic agreements...

At this point, he has only one choice and that is full on annexation.

I liked the first part of your post... a neutral Ukraine would probably have been acceptable to Russia, but they have no more reason to annex these two regions as they do Belarus or any other country in the region. These new republics are friendly to Russia and rather hostile to Kiev and the western countries that support Kiev. Russia does not need to annex anything at all... and that stage show where he corrected his official in accepting their independence rather than their joining of the Russian federation was obviously quite clearly showing these are not new bits of Russia and wont be any time soon, they are independent states that may ask Russia for help and want agreements and relations.

Russia no more needs to annex them as they need to annex Mongolia.

No from the Russians.

Putin has never shown any interest in invading any part of the Ukraine, the Crimea asked them in and had a referendum and decided to leave Kievs club and join the Russian Federation, and Russia agreed because the vast majority were Russian speaking Russians and the Crimea was Russian.

All of the Ukraine was Russian at some point but most have decided to be Ukrainian... including the people in the Donbass and Lugansk regions and Putin respects that. He is recognising them as independent states, not as a new piece of Russia... you know... just like teh west recognised Kosovo as Kosovo instead of a new piece of Albania.

Zelensky has signaled that he's ready for negotiations

He's been calling for calm and peace the whole crisis and avoiding any militant rhetoric, panic, or references to invasion. I think that has cemented his authority. Smart tactic.

I hope he's serious this time and is ready for negotiations with the leaders of the rebel republics themselves. They are the representatives of the local populace, no-one else.

Ready to talk to who?

The republics or Putin?

The idiot does not even know who the fvck is doing what at the LOC

But he is the one that can call the troops back and talk instead of shoot for a result.

The US will be hating this... the EU might not have to worry about an ice age approaching for them shortly.

lol, Zelesnky has no power, he will do what America tells him. America doesn't want Ukraine to negotiate with Russia at all and plus Ukrainian public would be against it.

Which is why this is so interesting... are these talks going to be like peace talks organised with a certain Iranian general that were used to kill them... does Zelensky know this?

They would rather Putin goes in and they fund an insurgency.

Their core problem is that Putin is not interested in teh rest of the Ukraine so there will be no going in.

They probably think that's their best bet at countering Russia at this point, now that negotiations are pretty much dead. A majority of Senators in the US support this and constantly bring up the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as a comp.

I wouldn't worry too much what American senators are saying or doing... I would think the mixed messages Zelensky has been getting the last few weeks and months along with loans and donations of weapons... even if Zelensky himself hasn't worked it out the oligarchs that are supporting him are likely feeling the pinch of being cut out of the Ukraines main market for the last 8 years.... the experiment with the EU and US has not paid off and is destroying the country and the future does not seem to show any obvious improvement or change unless he can normalise relations with these two regions and also Russia...

But that creates a problem... what happens if the Orcs get visiting rights to the Crimea and see what has been happening there these last few years...

By now their power and water problems are probably nearly if not solved then about to be solved, so there is no immediate benefit to better ties there for the Russian side... but when you see a brother in pain you don't laugh and kick them.... American and European politicians would but American people and European people probably wouldn't either, but then that is what western politicians do... they hide reality from their people so they can hate like the politicians do.

Russia was trying to help the rebels with air support. Buks and pantsirs were photographed. Russia had really bad opsec in 2014 this is well known. There are tons of photos of Russian soldiers getting caught in Ukraine from their social media. Fucking VICE was even able to do a documentary on it by following one Russian retard around from his social media posts and than confronted him in Russia. That’s how bad Russian opsec was that the RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT even had to pass a law against it. This is all common knowledge. Not some grand cia conspiracy by the west. You claim there would be no invasion. No sanctions. And NATO would pull back their borders. None of that happened. The opposite. At least Garry b sometimes admits he is wrong.

I would believe Iraqi propaganda before I believed the bullshit the west pumps out.

The Donbass and Lugansk are ethnic Russian regions, I would be impressed if you could tell them from actual Russians and even if you could there were people of all sorts of nationalities there too including people from France and Greece... did they shoot the plane down too?

When the west showed the fragmentation patterns on the nose of the aircraft they fucked themselves over... the fragments have a unique shape and came from a version of that missile taht is no longer used in Russia... it is an obsolete version... called SA-11 in the west. The Russians only use SA-17 versions of the missile... a newer type with different shaped fragments.

The Ukraine still uses the SA-11 and several were seen being driven into buildings by drunken or incompetent Orcs a few months later.

Ты правда настоящий пиздабол товарищ. Странно что тебе не стыдно.

I don't speak or read Russian but I can use an online translator...

How about this in Latin:
Omnibus linguis aliis quam anglorum requiritur providere, translatio aut non post aut omnino deleri. Hoc est, anglorum lingua forum... si vos dont ' volo ad stipes in latin tunc non post ad omnes.


english translation:

For all languages other than English you are required to provide a translation or do not post at all or it will be deleted. This is an english language forum... if you don't want to post in English then don't post at all.

Make a deal with Huawei and open a few factories in Russia.

A further example of sanctions making Russia stronger.

The US can't literally order him around, only put pressure and insert its agents into the country such as Poroshenko which it did a couple months ago, to make sure Zelensky stays in line.

They are barely paying the bills... he might switch and start talking to Putin to get a better deal... so far the deal with teh west has been shit for his country... but the cost to Russia I would hope Putin does not accept any offers.... 90 year old whores are not attractive.

Without BTW, any of the provisions of the Minsk agreement that they might have objected to, that agreement is dead.

That agreement still stands. Nothing has changed.

Russias recognition or otherwise of these regions means nothing in regard to Kievs obligation to negotiate with these regions... they had already declared themselves to be independent states when the agreement was signed.

But they will have to open negotiations, and then agree on some basic things. One of those will certainly be Ukrainian military neutrality, as if the Ukraine joins NATO then it can simply roll back any rights granted to the self-declared republics and they will not be able to receive Russian military support.

Kiev joining HATO right now would not change anything either. These republics are recognised by Russia, if the Ukraine tries to take them back with force whether they are on their own or with France and UK and Germany and the US wrapped in HATO flags doesn't matter... Russia  can be asked for help by these two regions and Russia I think would not refuse.... the alternative would be HATO right on their border.

The problem with this brinkmanship, is if Zelensky takes the line of a leader who wants peace, but will be ready to defend against any incursions. Without opening negotiations with the DNR/LNR. In practice this would mean war, as the DNR/LNR claim more territory than what they currently hold, and there is no more Minsk agreement to restrain them.

There will be Russian troops to restrain Kiev and an open border that weapons and ammo and equipment and men can openly cross if they want...

My position is simple. I'm against war.

So am I and this is the best chance of preventing said war.

If he did nothing the shelling would continue... realistically he could do this or he could just invade Kiev which would also be war.

This way the fighting might be limited and over pretty quickly.

If it starts between the Ukraine and DNR/LNR, there is no telling where it would end, and the prospect of Russian military occupation of the Ukraine is implied, given its readiness at the border

That has been an ongoing risk since this situation started... what Putin has done is made that less likely because Russian troops can be there to make Kiev back down.

I accept that Putin's strategy may work in restarting the peace process and securing Ukrainian military neutrality, but it also may not. If it does not, the consequences will be catastrophic.

If it does lead to negotiations then it succeeds magnificently... if it fails and starts a war don't you think that suggests a war was probably inevidable anyway...

Now please hold your hands up here everyone, who thinks that the Russian military taking control over the Ukraine - is a good idea. I want to see hands

They wont set foot on Ukrainian land... there is no need and no reason for them to do so.

His fate does concern me a little, in that potentially anyone in opposition can meet the same fate, even those not on CIA payroll - but he personally, elicits no sympathy from me.

I suspect the reason for his current fate is because of his CIA contacts and that opposition members that just don't agree with Putin will not get anything like the same treatment... for obvious reasons.

I'm still puzzled at why Russia didn't liberate the Pukraine in 2014.

Putin follows international law and an invasion of the Ukraine to change teh government would be a blatant violation of international law of western proportions...

Besides they didn't want it and thought these breakaway regions could negotiate some deal with Kiev... but Kiev never spoke to them and 7-8 year later did not even look interested in talking to them despite that being at the core of their obligations under the Minsk agreement... in fact that is what the Minsk agreement was... Kiev talking to the leaders of these two regions.

Hopefully a counter coup is around the corner.
Russia needs to flush those toilets of the Nazis.
Perhaps some sort of federalisation will help.

Coup or not... it isn't Russias problem.

I wonder how far the region's people have come in favour of closer links with Russia?
How much could be liberated and become pro-Russian today?

We may never know because anyone who says anything risks getting murdered.

Half (of what WAS the Ukraine in 2014)or near enough must surely be pro Russian by now.

Unless they are coping with the cold and the poverty by drinking the cool aide...

Either way, I fully support a firm approach and think it should have been done in 2014.

A firm approach is what they will likely be getting now...

PLus if the exodus was so damaging to pro Russian causes electorally, why is the pro Russian party effectively banned by the junta?

You only ban them when they become a viable threat... but lets see... would prefer to see them change policy and leadership using a ballot box than a rifle butt.

But then the US is there and they are the experts and ballot paper fiddling.

Aw that's cute you think a technicality like that will stop us? come on you should know better by now.

Cute you think the US can commit the EU to nuclear suicide because you can't use big words and think diplomacy is for girls with no guns.

NATO does a good job for US as a platform for selling weapons and wrecking small countries, here and there. Even though it is a "defensive alliance" their most important purpose is to promote US goals and act as a Trojan horse in Europe. They will not risk going to big wars.

HATOs two main purposes is a ready supply of cannon fodder... even Ukraine and Georgia helped them out in Afghanistan and Maiden... oops... and also to keep the EU and Russia from working together in any meaningful way.

Our position is quite simple too, every single day the nazis shell the Donbass, every single people they kill mean the war has been declared and needs to be stopped, do you understand that?

And the two available solutions were invasion of the Ukraine, which would be illegal under international law, or recognition of the two republics who could then invite Russian troops in to help them with a little border problem they have with their neighbours.... not to mention their land that their neighbour currently occupies... it seems Kiev is a bit like Turkey in Syria in that regard.

Because it would have been very traumatic for Russia, they needed almost a decade to substitute the equipment they received from Ukraine at least at a very basic level and they needed to diversify also their hydrocarbon exports away from them and Poland.

Properly assessing the own forces and the right timing sets the statesmen apart from the ideologues, the current suicidal policies of the West vs raising China and Russia being a exhibit A of both extremes...

The other factor being Russia had no legal right under international law to invade the Ukraine... so there was that as well.