Syrian War: News #23

Mindstorm wrote:

lyle6 wrote:

Mindstorm wrote:

In mine opinion the most probable explanation is that a cell of moles working for Israel has been discovered among SAA's operatives but, instead of suppressing it , Syrian intelligence has used it to spread purposely false informations.

Or they are primarily performative strikes, meant to puff up egos, no so much inflict military damage. Sort of like the Palestinian bottle rockets

In a not distant past and several years before that, IAF was capable to repeatedly execute absolutely identical attacks (4-6 F-15/F-16 delivering 8-12 missiles from Lebanon airspace) matching exactly the transition to new positions of the few SAA's Панцирь-С1 or Бук-М1Э/M2Э vehicles or attacking targets partially outside theirs coverage's footprint .

The percentage of missiles on targets, when this situation was the rule and air defenses activated was only Оса and Стрела, was from 68 to 82% now this parameter plummeted to 7-8 %.

And a few years before that, Israeli planes were flying over Bashar Al-Asad's palace in Damascus unhindered.
Now, they don't even dare fly over Syria.
They are even cautious when flying over Israel itself (one F-16 was shot down by an elderly S-200).
All they are doing lately is launch their missiles from Lebanese airspace and most missiles are being shut down.
How things change.

https://southfront.org/greater-idlib-casualties-reported-following-explosion-at-fuel-station-near-turkeys-border-videos/

This pisses me off. If any other country did this USA would be shouting sanctions sanctions sanctions. Yet they do as they please. How I wish the world would sanction the f*CK out of USA and see how they survive.

Really wish Russia and SAA make 2022 the year they make some serious progress and liberate Idilb and Latakia.


US Reportedly Dropped Massive Bomb on Syrian Dam Marked as 'No-Go' Target
https://sputniknews.com/20220121/us-reportedly-dropped-massive-bomb-on-syrian-dam-marked-as-no-go-target-1092435601.html

JohninMK wrote:

There is violations of the ceasefire every day and they will continue every day for the next 50yrs because nothing gets done about it. It's about time SAA, Iran and Russia ended this nonsense, stop pussyfooting around and get the job done. In the last couple of years they have even failed to fully root out and eradicate terrorists in Daara, and rid the other areas of ISIS. This has been a massive failure and embarrassment to SAA etc. And Latakia still hasn't been liberated. And zero progress in Idilb. Syrians must be fully disappointed with no progress. They will most likely still be waiting decades to come. Maybe Syria should just give up and partition the rest of the areas off, thee is certainly no effort or will to end the war and liberate the rest of the country.

d_taddei2 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

There is violations of the ceasefire every day and they will continue every day for the next 50yrs because nothing gets done about it. It's about time SAA, Iran and Russia ended this nonsense, stop pussyfooting around and get the job done. In the last couple of years they have even failed to fully root out and eradicate terrorists in Daara, and rid the other areas of ISIS. This has been a massive failure and embarrassment to SAA etc. And Latakia still hasn't been liberated. And zero progress in Idilb. Syrians must be fully disappointed with no progress. They will most likely still be waiting decades to come. Maybe Syria should just give up and partition the rest of the areas off, thee is certainly no effort or will to end the war and liberate the rest of the country.

Syria has been making progress every year. Give it time. The interventionists will pack up and leave sooner or later. There's nothing for them to do there.

Turkey has already quit its games with a multivector foreign policy and is now talking about joining the EU again, what with its massive currency crisis and the new showdown between East and West.

Which means the US will have to abandon its support for the Kurds in turn.

That's the next place to be reintegrated.

28 war crimes and counting...

The standoff between Syrian Democratic Forces and the Islamic State continues following Thursday’s attack on Geweran prison that already resulted in multiple casualties on both sides and claimed the lives of at least five civilians.

flamming_python wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

There is violations of the ceasefire every day and they will continue every day for the next 50yrs because nothing gets done about it. It's about time SAA, Iran and Russia ended this nonsense, stop pussyfooting around and get the job done. In the last couple of years they have even failed to fully root out and eradicate terrorists in Daara, and rid the other areas of ISIS. This has been a massive failure and embarrassment to SAA etc. And Latakia still hasn't been liberated. And zero progress in Idilb. Syrians must be fully disappointed with no progress. They will most likely still be waiting decades to come. Maybe Syria should just give up and partition the rest of the areas off, thee is certainly no effort or will to end the war and liberate the rest of the country.

Syria has been making progress every year. Give it time. The interventionists will pack up and leave sooner or later. There's nothing for them to do there.

Turkey has already quit its games with a multivector foreign policy and is now talking about joining the EU again, what with its massive currency crisis and the new showdown between East and West.

Which means the US will have to abandon its support for the Kurds in turn.

That's the next place to be reintegrated.

Zero progress has been made in nearly two years, the lines are still the same, in fact they have failed to eradicate ISIS is an embarrassment, and a small insurgency in the south which they still struggle to contain with assassinations of officers etc, this is a poor show of progress. Talking behind closed doors does nothing for the troops or civilians on the ground. Turkey hasn't given up support for terrorists in Syria, still providing arms, money training and intel, nor has Turkey removed all soldiers and armour. Zero progress.

Get the finger out of their ass and clear ISIS from all liberated land, stamp out the insurgency in the south, then turn there eye on Latakia and fully liberated it. Giving SAA good vantage points over the surrounding areas. Then start taking Idilb. The reason they haven't taken any further action in Idilb is due to Turkish support for terrorists there. All we see is a tit for tat attack. The SAA Iran and Russia made some good progress within the first few years of Russian intervention but it went stagnant.

d_taddei2 wrote:
Zero progress has been made in nearly two years, the lines are still the same, in fact they have failed to eradicate ISIS is an embarrassment, and a small insurgency in the south which they still struggle to contain with assassinations of officers etc, this is a poor show of progress. Talking behind closed doors does nothing for the troops or civilians on the ground. Turkey hasn't given up support for terrorists in Syria, still providing arms, money training and intel, nor has Turkey removed all soldiers and armour. Zero progress.

Get the finger out of their ass and clear ISIS from all liberated land, stamp out the insurgency in the south, then turn there eye on Latakia and fully liberated it. Giving SAA good vantage points over the surrounding areas. Then start taking Idilb. The reason they haven't taken any further action in Idilb is due to Turkish support for terrorists there. All we see is a tit for tat attack. The SAA Iran and Russia made some good progress within the first few years of Russian intervention but it went stagnant.

I am not so pessimistic as to progress, it might be slow but the country was in a pretty dire state and by some measures still is due to sanctions. But it looks like it should be back in the Arab League in March which interestingly will turn the US into an invader in an Arab country. It is now in the Belt and Road system so China will start rebuilding with their buddies Iran, if Turkey wants to be involved with their large construction industry they had better move fast as railways and pipelines are coming.

Things are moving militarily too, the RuAF/SyAF are now working much more closely which should reduce IAF attacks, the SAA, following gradual supplies of new gear and Russian training seems to be stronger. I would expect them to start rolling back Idlib this Spring.

The US seems to have got very worried about justifying their position. I have little doubt that the ISIS jail break is their attempt to get more ISIS operatives into action so that the 'we are here to fight ISIS' mantra can be refreshed, albeit with most of them moving west out of the US area to stir up trouble and divert the SAA from Idlib or east into Iraq to have a similar effect.

The time is working for the Syrians now, not the opposite.

They needed time to lick the wounds of a decade lasting brutal war, and seems that this is what they are doing now.

From a country that was on the verge of being totally wiped from the map just a few years ago, I think the heroic efforts from all involved deserves a special monument as testimony to a great victory against Western backed and funded terrorism.

Mir wrote:From a country that was on the verge of being totally wiped from the map just a few years ago,  I think the heroic efforts from all involved deserves a special monument as testimony to a great victory against Western backed and funded terrorism.  

Sadly it still hasn't won yet.. sanctions, USA on their soil, Kurdish SDF, Isis, Turkish backed terrorists, ruined infrastructure, majority of oil not in their control. Israeli airstrikes, insurgency in the south. Yes they made progress a few years back but nothing since. And to me that is a kick in the teeth for the hero's who died for their country and still do on a daily basis, because they let the terrorists attack them and refuse to advance an inch. And token Russian airstrikes don't much. You only have to look at the ferocity of SAA, Iranian soldiers a few years ago, and russian airstrikes. They had licked there wounds, got their rest, got extra training and weapons, over the last few years time to put it to good use finish this war, or do u suggest they leave it for another decade or two? It's clear overf the last few years and various chatting behind close doors have yielded nothing. And unfortunately only option now is to destroy them currently the terrorists are having it easy, time make life difficult or kill them they will soon flee into Turkey.

I remember the days SAA intelligence units behind enemy lines were directing airstrikes and causing havoc they are still in Idilb. I remember the heavy airstrikes and russian bombers destroying terrorists in there hundreds, lands being liberated. Communities getting back to some normality.

Another point is while SAA getting trained, rest and new equipment..so are the terrorists, Turkey still backing them. So both sides get stronger and they dig in and build defenses and tunnels, and recruit more radicals from abroad. It's now going to be harder to take Idilb.

The clapping of victory has gotten slower and slower to almost no applause at all while they realise the job isn't finished and is far from over. And zero belt and road initiative will take place until the country is liberated and many infrastructure projects won't take place due to safety of staff, especially while Israel bomb with impunity.

Mir wrote:I think the heroic efforts from all involved deserves a special monument as testimony to a great victory against Western backed and funded terrorism.  

There is one coming, saw a photo last week. Stunning bronzes of Russians on its steps.

@d_taddei2

I can see your point and yes things have moved towards a stalemate position for several reasons - Turkish invasion being one of them.
The Kurds have always been there - and they will remain there. Unfortunately they befriended the wrong crowd but they will remain part of Syria in any future settlement. The Turks don't like the Kurds to put it mildly and the feeling is mutual. I feel the Turks will eventually have to budge - but we'll see.

I don't see why , if Russia and allies are going to confront more actively and collectively , the western expansionist elements in Europe and elsewhere by providing material support . That They do not do this in Syria , an important region that will have important geopolitical value . I also don't see why , Russia and allies copy the tactics of the evil Empire , in order to confront it ?

The better way , the better deal , the more efficient method , the asymmetrical approach to confront a strong foe , is not to burden own economy and trying to maintain supply routes half way across the world , which is a logistical expense . It is setting up industry in such countries , to enable self-defence and local manufacture . Industrial development will also help in independence movements .

d_taddei2 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

There is violations of the ceasefire every day and they will continue every day for the next 50yrs because nothing gets done about it. It's about time SAA, Iran and Russia ended this nonsense, stop pussyfooting around and get the job done. In the last couple of years they have even failed to fully root out and eradicate terrorists in Daara, and rid the other areas of ISIS. This has been a massive failure and embarrassment to SAA etc. And Latakia still hasn't been liberated. And zero progress in Idilb. Syrians must be fully disappointed with no progress. They will most likely still be waiting decades to come. Maybe Syria should just give up and partition the rest of the areas off, thee is certainly no effort or will to end the war and liberate the rest of the country.

Syria has been making progress every year. Give it time. The interventionists will pack up and leave sooner or later. There's nothing for them to do there.

Turkey has already quit its games with a multivector foreign policy and is now talking about joining the EU again, what with its massive currency crisis and the new showdown between East and West.

Which means the US will have to abandon its support for the Kurds in turn.

That's the next place to be reintegrated.

Zero progress has been made in nearly two years, the lines are still the same, in fact they have failed to eradicate ISIS is an embarrassment, and a small insurgency in the south which they still struggle to contain with assassinations of officers etc, this is a poor show of progress. Talking behind closed doors does nothing for the troops or civilians on the ground. Turkey hasn't given up support for terrorists in Syria, still providing arms, money training and intel, nor has Turkey removed all soldiers and armour. Zero progress.

Get the finger out of their ass and clear ISIS from all liberated land, stamp out the insurgency in the south, then turn there eye on Latakia and fully liberated it. Giving SAA good vantage points over the surrounding areas. Then start taking Idilb. The reason they haven't taken any further action in Idilb is due to Turkish support for terrorists there. All we see is a tit for tat attack. The SAA Iran and Russia made some good progress within the first few years of Russian intervention but it went stagnant.

Your field of vision is too narrow

Turkey jumped right back into the NATO/EU camp 3 weeks ago. Seemingly, the US decided that it's time for concessions, while Erdogan has been probably more than a little worried about his political future.
Talk of joining the EU again https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/eu-membership-remains-turkeys-strategic-priority-erdogan-170756
The first meeting of the Turkish and Greek economic commission yesterday after 11 years https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-greece-economic-commission-meets-after-11-years-171031
Probably cancelling further S-400 purchases, although that was dead anyway I suspect when Russia refused to share technology
Now discussions in the US on rewriting the Montreux conventions for passage of warships to/from the Black Sea, which would have to have the support of Turkey of course https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1486426725911343104

Question is - in exchange for what?
Certainly help with Turkey's currency crisis and investor confidence I'd assume
Dropping support for the Greek-Israeli EastMed gas pipeline https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/greece-fumes-as-washington-loses-interest-in-eastmed-gas-pipeline/
F-35 purchases being on the table again https://ahvalnews.com/f-35/turkey-us-start-talks-f-35-fighter-jets
But Turkey's biggest point of contention with the US has always been the later's support of the Kurds in Syria. The US does need that border territory to prevent Syrian-Iranian transit via Iraq. But I predict that the Kurds will be dropped in some way, with the only thing left being a base at the Semalka border crossing, and the southern former-ISIS part of SDF territory still having a US presence.

With that in mind, Syria will stand to reincorporate all the Kurdish-populated core of SDF territory, and on terms more to its liking. Then it can proceed to destabilizing the US-allied former-ISIS warlords in the Deir-ez-Zor province.

flamming_python wrote:

Your field of vision is too narrow

Turkey jumped right back into the NATO/EU camp 3 weeks ago. Seemingly, the US decided that it's time for concessions, while Erdogan has been probably more than a little worried about his political future.
Talk of joining the EU again https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/eu-membership-remains-turkeys-strategic-priority-erdogan-170756
The first meeting of the Turkish and Greek economic commission yesterday after 11 years https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-greece-economic-commission-meets-after-11-years-171031
Probably cancelling further S-400 purchases, although that was dead anyway I suspect when Russia refused to share technology
Now discussions in the US on rewriting the Montreux conventions for passage of warships to/from the Black Sea, which would have to have the support of Turkey of course https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1486426725911343104

Question is - in exchange for what?
Certainly help with Turkey's currency crisis and investor confidence I'd assume
Dropping support for the Greek-Israeli EastMed gas pipeline https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/greece-fumes-as-washington-loses-interest-in-eastmed-gas-pipeline/
F-35 purchases being on the table again https://ahvalnews.com/f-35/turkey-us-start-talks-f-35-fighter-jets
But Turkey's biggest point of contention with the US has always been the later's support of the Kurds in Syria. The US does need that border territory to prevent Syrian-Iranian transit via Iraq. But I predict that the Kurds will be dropped in some way, with the only thing left being a base at the Semalka border crossing, and the southern former-ISIS part of SDF territory still having a US presence.

With that in mind, Syria will stand to reincorporate all the Kurdish-populated core of SDF territory, and on terms more to its liking. Then it can proceed to destabilizing the US-allied former-ISIS warlords in the Deir-ez-Zor province.

My field of vision is perfect good thank u.

But what u failed to mention (maybe field of vision is too narrow) is if USA and Turkey are back in bed, that regardless if Kurds get dropped (which doubt that will happen anytime soon or if at all) and make a deal with Syrian government they will still have Turkish backed terrorists, which USA can now also support via Turkey to make sure Syria remains in chaos, and u forget Israeli airstrikes acting with impunity. And u think USA will give up oil wells in Kurdish held areas to Syrian government?????? Yeah I think not.

They could have Idilb, Latakia, Isis cleared from SAA areas, and insurgency in the south wrapped up by end of the year if they go for it. This would put pressure on Turkish backed terrorists in the north to which they will most likely fold. Then the Kurds will be left with very little choice as there areas they hold would be the last remaining area not liberated. Turkey at this point will climb out of bed with USA to make a deal with Syrian government to make sure that the Kurds get taken back under the wing of Syrian government, regardless of what USA says..the Kurds are ones who will witness a lose lose scenario.
But while Idilb Latakia still in terrorists hands Turkey will have no interest in making deals until it loses those areas. So without any progress u will see another stagnant year of tit for tat attacks

There's a rule against multi-quoting.

magnumcromagnon wrote:There's a rule against multi-quoting.

Never knew the rule but now amended

d_taddei2 wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:There's a rule against multi-quoting.

Never knew the rule but now amended

The Kurds in Syria are quite different from the one's in Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds are seeking independence whilst those in Syria wants to stay "Syrian". Perhaps as an insurance policy against the Turks? Not that it really matters but both the US and Turkey are illegally occupying Syrian territory. The same goes for Israeli attacks on Syrian territory. Pressure will soon mount for these guys to quit and leave.

Mir wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:There's a rule against multi-quoting.

Never knew the rule but now amended

The Kurds in Syria are quite different from the one's in Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds are seeking independence whilst those in Syria wants to stay "Syrian". Perhaps as an insurance policy against the Turks? Not that it really matters but both the US and Turkey are illegally occupying Syrian territory. The same goes for Israeli attacks on Syrian territory. Pressure will soon mount for these guys to quit and leave.

Am.nkt holding my breath. USA are in control of the majority of Syrian oil, they won't want to give that back as it's a means to fund the Syrian regime it failed to topple, so out of spite will make it as difficult as I can. And Israel doesn't want a stable Syria that can continue to host Iranian troops and missiles if it comes to it long term. Syria has a large debt to Iran so Iran has the leverage. Israel wants Syria to remain weak and in turmoil. Turkey just wants to kill Kurds and reclaim land it thinks is there's from centuries ago. USA will also want to keep Syria in turmoil because while it's in turmoil it's costing Russia money. And with the current situation in Ukraine and potential raft of sanctions it's in USA interests to keep Russia in Syria spending money during tough sanctions this increases the financial painof those sanctions. Or so USA wants to think. What is clear USA, Turkish support, Israeli airstrikes, and Kurds given in to Syrian government isn't going to happen anytime soon. The Kurds issue will most likely be that last area to be come under Syrian government control.

d_taddei2 wrote:
Am.nkt holding my breath. USA are in control of the majority of Syrian oil, they won't want to give that back as it's a means to fund the Syrian regime it failed to topple, so out of spite will make it as difficult as I can. And Israel doesn't want a stable Syria that can continue to host Iranian troops and missiles if it comes to it long term. Syria has a large debt to Iran so Iran has the leverage. Israel wants Syria to remain weak and in turmoil. Turkey just wants to kill Kurds and reclaim land it thinks is there's from centuries ago. USA will also want to keep Syria in turmoil because while it's in turmoil it's costing Russia money. And with the current situation in Ukraine and potential raft of sanctions it's in USA interests to keep Russia in Syria spending money during tough sanctions this increases the financial painof those sanctions. Or so USA wants to think. What is clear USA, Turkish support, Israeli airstrikes, and Kurds given in to Syrian government isn't going to happen anytime soon. The Kurds issue will most likely be that last area to be come under Syrian government control.

Quite right you are - they do want to destabilize and plunder Syrian resources for as long as they can, but I'm pretty sure World pressure is going to mount this coming year - esp with China coming into play. The US will probably pull out of Iraq very soon and they will have to leave Syria long before that. Russia and China will become more dominant in the region - as they already are.

Turkey and support for terrorists will still be there at the end of 2022, USA and Kurds will still be in control of their current areas, Isis will still be running around, and very little progress by end of year Idilb will still be under control of terrorists. That's what I think 2022 will be another stagnant year