GarryB wrote:The core problem is that for your long term future you are better off not just with Russia but with all of BRICS who wont treat you like crap like the US does...
Funny you mentioned that. From the latest interest in really starting a serious ToT fighter program in Egypt, it received several offers from South Korea, China and India. By the looks of the several meetings and news releases, the Tejas might just be the one that kicks things off. India has made excellent offers and the EAF just has to agree on a large batch of aircraft and have the finances all sorted out. We'll see how that develops.
GarryB wrote:I would count against that with the suck up rule. If it has been cancelled then why not openly admit it and get all the rewards from the US for being such a loyal little bitch?
Because it's less obvious and detracts from severe criticism. By keeping it hanging & dangling in the balance, it does exactly what we're witnessing on this thread. "Some" people are influenced by the fact that it wasn't officially announced so automatically assume it's only on hold and will eventually happen.
It lessens the criticism that they caved in or conceded. It "saves face", so to speak.
Eventually it will be realized but by then, time will have cured or at least tempered any criticism.
The only time they would actually come out and say "we backed out of the Su-35S deal" is possibly at the announcement of a new aircraft acquisition. If the F-15s show up, they could very well come out and say they decided to go with the F-15 instead of the Su-35 and list all sorts of reasons. By then it'll be too obvious anyway.
GarryB wrote:The fact that they haven't called it cancelled suggests to me that it is not because they really don't benefit if it is cancelled by keeping that secret.
You lost me there LOL!
GarryB wrote:I would ask if he was so weak as to break the contract for the Su-35s would Russia trust Egypt enough to agree to ask it to join BRICS?
I think there's a strong and deep-rooted understanding between Putin & Sisi that this is a difficult position for the latter to be in and the former understands the decision made. There's way too much history and dealings between the two for even something of this caliber to detract from any goodwill that is there.
Hey, Russia is currently building Egypt's first nuclear reactor in Dabaa. This is only the 2nd in all of Africa and is a big deal. There's so much other stuff the two countries are cooperating together with that even something as big as this Su-35 deal getting kiobashed wouldn't affect the profound friendship that exists.
I also would strongly think that there was a monetary exchange and that it's not like Russia went ahead and assembled 30 Su-35s on the cuff. I'm guessing there was a relatively substantial deposit paid upfront to initiate the contract. Not that 1/3 or maybe even 1/2 of the total payment would be an even swap, but it's still most likely sufficient to have to deal with the headache of keeping the aircraft in storage and trying to unload them to another air force. Then Russia could get full payment and make out even better with full payment plus the deposit.
The challenge for Egypt is what now? How the heck is the EAF supposed to move forward with its heavy fighter and 5th gen requirements?
GarryB wrote:I think Russia might want to make as many Su-57s for itself as it can, but the Su-75 is designed for export and is intended to be affordable to buy and also affordable to operate... two critical things that the west forgets... having a 150 million dollar plane that costs 80K per hour in operational costs... who can afford that?
A 40 million dollar plane that costs 6 or 7K per hour operation and you can buy 500 of the damn things and patrol your airspace properly and still have money left.
Yup. The entire western border with Libya, the entire southern border with Sudan and the entire eastern shoreline with the Red Sea + Sinai and the entire northern coast on the Mediterranean Sea is the perfect terrain for an aircraft like the Su-35S. There couldn't be a better match IMO and not for the simple fact that its a beast that's perfectly suited for that role (being able to not only carry a lot of lethality but tons of fuel without the need for fuel tanks) but that it was part of a larger plan to integrate with the MiG-29s (and additional MiG-35s) to specifically work with a designated Russian-built radar and SAM system network. The EADS has invested and built a major radar & air defense network for the entire country with the Su-35S being an intricate part of that network.
That's roughly 3,000 + kilometers. Can't put the F-15 in there. When you have roughly 80% of your ADS made up of Russian SAMs & radars and newly built mega ground control centers, the plan was obvious to see. Now there's a major void that they're going to have to address at some point soon.
This role used to be shared by the F-16s (a big reason why their numbers are high) and MiG-21s to a certain extent as well as the F-7 AIRGUARD. The latter was relegated mostly to the Red Sea sector. Point being, that was getting a major uplift with the Su-35s & MiG-29Ms.
At one point the EAF was operating 500 MIG-21s, 150 of those F-7s and 119 Mirage-5. All of those are pretty much retired and the plan was to start the 52 MiG-29M/M2s with the 30 Su-35Ss to inherit that role with the help of the F-16s and even Rafales until the MiG & Sukhoi numbers are increased.
So were the number of airbases which were going to double from the current 20 to 40. Not all the current ones are showing on this map. A few more have been built since this was drawn.
GarryB wrote:I remember in the early 1980s when we got our first glimpses of the MiG-29 and then the Su-27 and OMG... it was so different from the metal tubes with wings that the MiG-21 and Su-17 were... the curves, but then the fitting was terrible for the MiGs because it could be... there were gaps between the outer panels you could get your finger into, but it didn't matter because RCS wasn't a thing and it had internal fuel tanks rather than the outer skin being the fuel containers like they do with the new MiGs and with the Flankers.
Now I look back and find the older aircraft more interesting than I did before... they seemed boring but not now that I understand the reasons for the shapes and designs.... the evolutions of the wings like the straight wing of the MiG-3 and then as jet engines pushed up speeds to the speed of sound the swept wing of the MiG-15, and then the more swept wing of the MiG-17 and the delta wing of the MiG-21, but as runways got longer and longer they looked at lift jets and swing wings so the MiG-23 and MiG-21, or the planes that just used really long runways like the MiG-25 and MiG-31, but then came the lifting bodies and more sophisticated wing design that allowed shorter runways and mach 2 plus speeds with the MiG-29 and Su-27... I am looking forward to see the MiG-41s wing shape...
That kinda nostalgia is reserved for us ol' geezer...I mean us ol' timers.
GarryB wrote:Maybe a good thing would be an industrial partnership to assemble locally the su-75. This way it creates jobs, allows integration of homemade weapons, and they would have local maintenance centers for the most used parts. One big issue of have foreign aircraft is you need to send them back for maintenace which takes time.
Become a production and maintenance hub for the Su-75... an affordable light 5th gen fighter would be popular in Africa and South Africa would probably be keen to set up something similar at the other end of Africa too...
The important thing is to pick things you need a lot of for local production.
Like I mentioned, it appears that the Tejas is the front-runner for that endeavor ATM but you never know. Stranger things have happened, and I wouldn't be surprised in China jumps into the fray as well. Apparently Egypt was offered the the J-10C/D or the FC-35 which is slated to enter production in 2024 and IOC in China by 2025. Not a big fan of introducing another significant platform from a different origin. Right now (and the planned route) was to have a balance between two platform origins. The western ones (F-16s, Rafales) and Russian ones (MiG-29/35, Su-35s) and the trainers/attack/light combat could be others.
Here's a question for you or anyone interested - what happens to the Su-35S now? Is Russia marketing it to certain countries? With the introduction of the Su-57 and likely demands for that besides the VKS, it will be most likely dominating the production lines and so where does the Su-35S go from here?[/quote]