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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #29

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:23 pm

    It's funny.

    Ban Russia from swift will allow Russia to use their alternative, which will mean all new agreements with Russia for oil and gas goes through their system and not swift generating more income for Russia which will then mean Ukraine is left with zero transfer of oil and gas and this loses out a huge portion of its economy.

    I say go for it Europe. Do it. You will just make it worst for yourself.

    BTW, EU is so reliant on Russian gas and oil, they would be quick to make new deals. They not only do not have an alternative option, the alternative markets are at max output to EU.

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    Post  kvs Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:32 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:It's funny.

    Ban Russia from swift will allow Russia to use their alternative, which will mean all new agreements with Russia for oil and gas goes through their system and not swift generating more income for Russia which will then mean Ukraine is left with zero transfer of oil and gas and this loses out a huge portion of its economy.

    I say go for it Europe. Do it.  You will just make it worst for yourself.

    BTW, EU is so reliant on Russian gas and oil, they would be quick to make new deals.  They not only do not have an alternative option, the alternative markets are at max output to EU.

    Posturing EU-twats think that Russia is a banana republic.

    Note the bitching about Russian aggression but not a squeak about the Kiev regime attempt at an ethnic cleansing operation.

    These *unts think they will keep getting away with genocide forever. Their days of having it easy are numbered.

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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:52 pm

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:It's funny.

    Ban Russia from swift will allow Russia to use their alternative, which will mean all new agreements with Russia for oil and gas goes through their system and not swift generating more income for Russia which will then mean Ukraine is left with zero transfer of oil and gas and this loses out a huge portion of its economy.

    I say go for it Europe. Do it.  You will just make it worst for yourself.

    BTW, EU is so reliant on Russian gas and oil, they would be quick to make new deals.  They not only do not have an alternative option, the alternative markets are at max output to EU.

    Posturing EU-twats think that Russia is a banana republic.  

    Note the bitching about Russian aggression but not a squeak about the Kiev regime attempt at an ethnic cleansing operation.

    These *unts think they will keep getting away with genocide forever.    Their days of having it easy are numbered.


    To quote someone close to me:
    "Those with the cheapest energy wins". EU has had it very easy because Russian energy is much cheaper and they gave discounts to various EU states. It's also well known when they (EU) switched to other sources, things got pricier.

    EU cannot compete with Russia, China and the like on cheaper manufacturing/production. When prices for EU goods increase dramatically to make up for higher costs of energy, you will start to see major companies either move, fail outright or be willing to take hits enough they will not be even close to their previous gains.

    China won't take it either. They will switch to Russian payment system or link between banks to counter act this move and this will then strengthen their position as well.

    The biggest loser here would actually be EU and I do think they realize this. Hence their constant bluffing. Iran was banned from SWIFT and they still sell tons of oil.

    This may also start to help Iran in linking new trade deals. It may allow Iran access to Russia's system which then can link between China, Iran, Russia and Russian friendly states giving even more credence to Russia's system.
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    Post  lyle6 Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:59 pm

    Europe can't just not buy Russian gaz. Even if Russia is cut off from SWIFT the Europeans would just be forced to enroll in Russia's alternative payment system just to pay for their gaz purchases. There is also the alternative of wily American corpos stepping in as the middleman on account of some fine print loophole that allows them to trade with Russia just fine. One way or another, Russian gaz would still be making its way into Euro markets.

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:03 pm

    Can't find a suitable comment.

    Enrico Kremlin-affiliated Smile
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    ·
    26m
    For the first time a march to celebrate the SS Galicia division took place in Kiev, previously it was organized only in #Lvov.
    And they keep saying that "Nazis in #Ukraine" are just Russian propaganda...


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    Post  par far Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:15 pm














    Great analysis:

    "What just happened in the Ukraine?"

    https://thesaker.is/what-just-happened-in-the-ukraine/




    Great analysis by Pepe Escobar:

    "Putin rewrites the law of the geopolitical jungle"

    https://thesaker.is/putin-rewrites-the-law-of-the-geopolitical-jungle/

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    Post  owais.usmani Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:37 pm

    What is the Russian alternate of SWIFT? Is it up and running?
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    Post  slasher Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:09 pm

    https://twitter.com/colonelhomsi/status/1387155815530909706?s=20
    Geo_monitor
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    About a quarter of ukrainians want to leave the country. The desire to leave Ukraine was expressed by about 23% of the country's population. This comes from data from a survey published on April 26 by LibertyReport..

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:20 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:What is the Russian alternate of SWIFT? Is it up and running?

    SPFS it's called.

    It has been tested multiple times between Russia's biggest banks successfully.

    There is talk to help integrate other countries in it.

    Also, Russia has hinted again and again that they are also looking to implement blockchain as well, possibly into the whole system. Giving credence to cryptocurrency.
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    Post  gbu48098 Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:35 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:

    SPFS it's called.

    It has been tested multiple times between Russia's biggest banks successfully.

    There is talk to help integrate other countries in it.

    Also, Russia has hinted again and again that they are also looking to implement blockchain as well, possibly into the whole system. Giving credence to cryptocurrency.

    While the alternative home built system may prevent crippling of domestic financial transactions, it will still be a big deal for foreign trade and will be impactful atleast short to medium term. Long term will make them more independent, west may be going for economic impact and internal destabilization
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    Post  kvs Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:08 pm

    gbu48098 wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:

    SPFS it's called.

    It has been tested multiple times between Russia's biggest banks successfully.

    There is talk to help integrate other countries in it.

    Also, Russia has hinted again and again that they are also looking to implement blockchain as well, possibly into the whole system. Giving credence to cryptocurrency.

    While the alternative home built system may prevent crippling of domestic financial transactions, it will still be a big deal for foreign trade and will be impactful atleast short to medium term. Long term will make them more independent, west may be going for economic impact and internal destabilization

    Here are some facts that mitigate this:

    1) Russia is one of the top handful of countries on the planet with the smallest import dependence.

    2) Russia exports vital energy resources and minerals.

    So foreign companies are going to bend over to make whatever Russia has as a replacement for SWIFT work.

    The idea that Russia depends on "hard currency" from its exports to function is drivel. It has not been true since the 1980s and was already going away
    in the 1990s. Russia can even demand to be paid in rubles if it wanted.

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    Post  PapaDragon Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:23 am

    ATLASCUB wrote:The only reason Russia mobilized is because the U.S wanted it to happen.

    Russia mobilized because 404s thought that they could bum rush their way through to the border this time

    They were simply (and cheaply) reminded that they will not be allowed to win, ever and that current status quo will be maintained at Moscow’s discretion  



    ATLASCUB wrote:To even consider how cheap they got Ukraine. Remember the cookies?... Literally for cookies.

    They didn't have to get the Ukraine because they always had it

    Who do you think wad doing the legwork for Generalplan Ost?

    If you are butthurt over Ukraine simply being themselves then blame the commies for not implementing denazification after WW2

    Had they killed off the Nazis and all their relatives things would have been different today



    ATLASCUB wrote:Russians turned cannon fodder against other Russians.

    Newsflash: The Ukrainians aren't Russians, never were never will be

    They are the enemy

    From the first interaction I had with the Ukrainians decades ago one thing was obvious to me: they absolutely despise Russians with religious fervour and would gladly skin every single one of them alive if given a chance (and they are ready to spend eternity if need be waiting for that chance)

    Russians aren't human to them and everyone on this planet knows this

    Only people stupid enough not to know it are Russians



    gbu48098 wrote:Shit is happening behind the scenes on cutting off Russians from Swift and halting gas purchases.....first Lavrov and then now EU parliament made statements on those lines. Someone is getting desperate....

    Shit already happened when 404s backed down, they saw what happened in Syria and are aware that they would have Lovecraftian horror coming down on them from the air if they were to even try something stupid

    The are now back to their usual process of rotting away

    NS2 is getting completed for realz, the Ukraine has been dumped like a turd on a pavement and EU is throwing tantrums as a result

    There are plenty desperate people but they aren't in Moscow (or Berlin)



    lyle6 wrote:Europe can't just not buy Russian gaz. Even if Russia is cut off from SWIFT the Europeans would just be forced to enroll in Russia's alternative payment system just to pay for their gaz purchases...

    And this is all there is to it

    Germans can't lose competitiveness to China in manufacturing sector because it's the bedrock of their entire modern statehood

    And the only way to do it is to have cheap energy

    Should China ever pull ahead it's game over for them and they know it, compared to that the Ukraine, EU, democracy and all that other crap is trivial and inconsequential

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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:30 am

    One has to define Ukrainians.

    Western Ukrainians are Romanian/Poles and they hate Russians with every inch of their souls.

    Eastern and Central were Russians for most part. Prior to Soviet times they were just Russians.

    It was all thanks to USSR for creating a fake state that is Ukraine today, gave them false sense of national identity and boom, a headache for Russia and lost territory.

    Sucks but gotta deal with the issue at hand now

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    Post  gbu48098 Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:03 am

    kvs wrote:
    1) Russia is one of the top handful of countries on the planet with the smallest import dependence.

    2) Russia exports vital energy resources and minerals.

    So foreign companies are going to bend over to make whatever Russia has as a replacement for SWIFT work.

    The idea that Russia depends on "hard currency" from its exports to function is drivel.    It has not been true since the 1980s and was already going away
    in the 1990s.    Russia can even demand to be paid in rubles if it wanted.


    The reality is we know pretty much most backed out even with legally binding and paid for contracts in NS2 from insurance to pipe laying and all in between and same with south stream just on the threat and they range from Swiss to German to Dutch companies and so on.
    It wont impact Russians that much in terms of being independent nor would it be same as sanctions on Iran as Russia is pretty self sufficient in all areas but they do have trade and the impact will certainly disrupt some things like nissans, fords, gms, ikea and toyota and so on doing business in Russia....its not just about net credit or debit on import or export balance. Personally they may not go through it as its impact is in threat but not actually going through it. One can not underestimate these days though....common sense is really a scarce commodity in west from social to foreign policy.
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    Post  lancelot Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:32 am

    gbu48098 wrote:The reality is we know pretty much most backed out even with legally binding and paid for contracts in NS2 from insurance to pipe laying and all in between and same with south stream just on the threat and they range from Swiss to German to Dutch companies and so on.
    It wont impact Russians that much in terms of being independent nor would it be same as sanctions on Iran as Russia is pretty self sufficient in all areas but they do  have trade and the impact will certainly disrupt some things like nissans, fords, gms, ikea and toyota and so on doing business in Russia....its not just about net credit or debit on import or export balance. Personally they may not go through it as its impact is in threat but not actually going through it. One can not underestimate these days though....common sense is really a scarce commodity in west from social to foreign policy.

    Even Iran is a lot more sanctions proof than a lot of people think. For example they are self sufficient in food production and even export food.
    Iran has a huge steel industry and some automotive industry as well. Just look at the trucks they use on their missile systems. They are Iranian made, not imports.
    Their aviation industry has its limitations, but for the size they have, and the sanctions they need to endure, they could do worse.

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    Post  Backman Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:05 am

    Just a reminder. SWIFT is a clunky old analog piece of shit. There is nothing proprietary about it. It is just a network everyone agrees to use unless they are fighting unrestricted submarine warfare against each other.

    Banning Russia from SWIFT is in effect , declaring unrestricted submarine warfare on Russia.

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    Post  flamming_python Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:50 am

    They were expecting Russia to fold over the sanctions, or even collapse altogether and come crawling for mercy

    Or at the very least, they thought that their man Navalny would be able to mobilize some mass-support and then they'd be able to work from there

    None of that happened and instead Russia is on the verge of completing NS2, it's economy suffered less than every major economy in Europe last year, and it has released one of the best COVID vaccines that's making rounds around the world and the EU has a headache over what to do with it.

    Hence they're in panic.

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:44 am

    Indeed, a panic that includes Kiev who now have no idea how to de-conflict without political chaos.

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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:52 am

    Eventually the money as well coming from Russia will dry up and Ukraine will be pooched.

    I suppose they can jump up and down like the hamsters they are when US gives them token $300m in military aid.

    Man, I hate calling them hamsters.  Hamsters are at least cute even if they are dumb.  Ukrainians arent cute.
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    Post  gbu48098 Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:57 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    Even Iran is a lot more sanctions proof than a lot of people think. For example they are self sufficient in food production and even export food.
    Iran has a huge steel industry and some automotive industry as well. Just look at the trucks they use on their missile systems. They are Iranian made, not imports.
    Their aviation industry has its limitations, but for the size they have, and the sanctions they need to endure, they could do worse.

    Everyone is sanction proof, Iran, Russia, Cuba, India and Venezuela and so on....if you mean they don't collectively jump into sea. Reality is whoever is in a position to control or some sort of monopoly on something will cause some pain as the systems depend on them. Does not mean its existential or on the other side its impactless....if that were the case Iran would not have made a deal or try to. Capable ones will find a way but in the meantime they might see impact and thats all there is to it.
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    Post  gbu48098 Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:01 pm

    flamming_python wrote:They were expecting Russia to fold over the sanctions, or even collapse altogether and come crawling for mercy

    Or at the very least, they thought that their man Navalny would be able to mobilize some mass-support and then they'd be able to work from there

    None of that happened and instead Russia is on the verge of completing NS2, it's economy suffered less than every major economy in Europe last year, and it has released one of the best COVID vaccines that's making rounds around the world and the EU has a headache over what to do with it.

    Hence they're in panic.
    In my opinion, either outcome is acceptable for them. If they accept then they can establish their dominance atleast in their mind and if they don't then they are pushing off Russia. West has perfected the art of getting plebs riled up and dumbed up....so now they control home and abroad except for a few countries but its exhausting for those countries to keep playing it. Therefore fists need to be used when they need to be to set the rules of the game.

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    Post  Rasisuki Nebia Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:37 pm

    If Russia is cut-off from SWIFT then good riddance, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot and will Jump-start alternative channels bypassing it making more countries join in and the west would lose all of it's leverage, or whatever leverage they think they had .

    I'm sure EU/Ukraine would be thrilled to get their hands on that "Freedom Gas", heard it's triple the price but it's nothing new considering their machoistic tendencies .

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    Post  Regular Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:07 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:One has to define Ukrainians.

    Western Ukrainians are Romanian/Poles and they hate Russians with every inch of their souls.

    Romanian? What are you on about Laughing I know Ukrainians look and smell like gypsies, but they are not related.

    Western Ukrainians are mostly derived from Poles and Belarussians. And basically, that's it. They are the only people that could be considered to have separate "culture" influenced by cossacs, but still different from the rest Ukraine today. I believe in the future they will be the ones looking for separatism because they are clashing with the rest of the regions. They have different ideology and mentality. Rest of Ukraine bends to EU and Globohomo ideology and it doesn't bode well with Bandera worshipers. And they not only hate russians, but they hate poles with equal hate, even when they live in Russia and Poland they hold a grudge and cause various problems in those countries. Rest of Ukraine, even if they are crazy, but it's a question of time until they will be back in Russian sphere and I have no doubt. How long it will take for them to be dropped by the west and disfranchised - is question of time.
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:29 pm

    Parts of what was Romania is in Ukraine.

    The people didn't leave. They just mingled.

    Ukraine is a Hodge Podge of people who hate each other.

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    Post  GarryB Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:00 pm

    Shit is happening behind the scenes on cutting off Russians from Swift and halting gas purchases.....first Lavrov and then now EU parliament made statements on those lines. Someone is getting desperate...

    That would be ideal.

    it insists that in such circumstances the import of oil and gas from Russia to the EU should be immediately stopped, and Russia should be excluded from the SWIFT payment system, and all assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families in the EU should be frozen, and their visas canceled," the document says.

    Wow... they make a tempting offer... kicking Russia out of SWIFT will cost SWIFT lots of transaction money... and of course when the US can't supply enough gas and they need to buy the odd tankers worth from Russia it means they will have to join whatever alternative system Russia uses instead of SWIFT for payments... and Russia can charge way more than it is charging for piped gas because it will still be cheaper than American gas of which there wont be any.

    Freezing the assets of rich Russians living in Europe, or rich Russians with money and assets in Europe... that would be hilarious because that would punish all the Russian rich keeping their money and assets hidden in Europe and make them bring it all back to Russia...

    Last time Theresa May threatened Putin with that, he said go ahead... we can help you identify who and where if you like...

    NS2 will be completed in less than two months and that in itself will mean that the German and to a lesser extent the French economy will get even more dependent on Russia

    Bullshit... connecting a pipe to supply cheap energy to Germany does not create any dependency... they are not obligated to use it.... they can buy as much freedom gas from the US as they like and not buy any gas from Russia at all if they wanted, but they want cheap energy.

    Hard to imagine they would stop buying gas totally all of a sudden, so it is just to try and get leverage in negotiations.....Aren't central euro and baltics always disappointed?

    Russia gets rather more money from gas sales to Asia... if the EU does not want cheap energy I am sure Russia can start liquification and shipping to countries who do want cheaper alternatives to what they are using now.

    While the alternative home built system may prevent crippling of domestic financial transactions, it will still be a big deal for foreign trade and will be impactful atleast short to medium term. Long term will make them more independent, west may be going for economic impact and internal destabilization

    Countries wanting to buy Russian weapons and products and energy... including rocket engines and titanium... will likely need to join the system to access their market... the EU kicking Russia out of SWIFT will essentially create an alternative to SWIFT... I doubt they will kick out members of SWIFT who join this new system, because if the US and EU want titanium for aircraft and of course energy and raw materials and other things they are going to have to pay for it somehow... and they wont be able to use SWIFT.

    The reality is we know pretty much most backed out even with legally binding and paid for contracts in NS2 from insurance to pipe laying and all in between and same with south stream just on the threat and they range from Swiss to German to Dutch companies and so on.

    That is not loyalty to the US, it is mathematics... complete this job for a fraction of the 11+ billion dollar project... say 200 million or something and cut yourself out of the US market that needs infrastructure work real bad for the next 20 years at least... obviously they are going to drop this job in hope of future jobs.

    It wont impact Russians that much in terms of being independent nor would it be same as sanctions on Iran as Russia is pretty self sufficient in all areas but they do have trade and the impact will certainly disrupt some things like nissans, fords, gms, ikea and toyota and so on doing business in Russia....its not just about net credit or debit on import or export balance.

    Every European company that left the job had to be replaced by a Russian company that wasn't going to operate in the US anyway so sanctions are meaningless to them.... but I bet they are getting paid top dollar for this job.

    Western companies don't make western products in Russia to benefit Russia. They do it to bypass import restrictions on foreign goods, but also cheap energy and manufacturing in Russia means exports to other markets can make them more profit too.

    Their aviation industry has its limitations, but for the size they have, and the sanctions they need to endure, they could do worse.

    Would like to see them work with Russia and India and improve their ability to make medicine, particularly generic, but also other medicines they need...

    Indeed, a panic that includes Kiev who now have no idea how to de-conflict without political chaos.

    ATLASCLUB mentioned the cost of mobilising all those Russian troops and how it is costing Russia... imagine what it is doing to the Ukraine...

    Reality is whoever is in a position to control or some sort of monopoly on something will cause some pain as the systems depend on them.

    The threat is often worse than the punishment... the US dollar was a powerful weapon... till they started using it as a weapon against Russia and so they got rid of the US Debt they held and are working to eliminate US dollars from all their international transactions... so it was a power, but it was used and now it has actually weakened the US more than Russia... Russia was talking about dropping the dollar for years but didn't until the US used it against them.

    Where is that cartoon of Trump shooting himself in the foot?

    .so now they control home and abroad except for a few countries but its exhausting for those countries to keep playing it.

    If they think that is control then they are delusional...

    If Russia is cut-off from SWIFT then good riddance, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot and will Jump-start alternative channels bypassing it making more countries join in and the west would lose all of it's leverage, or whatever leverage they think they had .

    Russia has an alternative to SWIFT but no good reason to start using it... the EU giving them that reason is the push Russia needs.

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