Russian Civil Aviation: News #4

Russia certifies maintenance of foreign built aircraft - regardless of what foreign governments or companies demand. They will service them for as long as they have sufficient spare components.

https://aviation21.ru/rossiya-pristupila-k-obsluzhivaniyu-inostrannyx-lajnerov-s-registraciej-v-rf/

Might makes right...

It is just like I said. Iran situation. They will service airplanes with their own facilities. They will do their own certification. They will put some airplanes aside and cannibalize them for parts. They will try doing their own fixes to parts. They will get parts in the black market. Sure there will be attrition. But international flights to the West have been cancelled. This likely cut down flights a lot. You will also still have Turkish, Middle Eastern, and Chinese airlines still flying to Russia. Other Asian airlines outside Japan and South Korea might start flying in. Like from Vietnam and Thailand. So who cares.

This mitigation strategy will keep aircraft flying in Russia until the Superjet-NEW and MC-21 start rolling off the assembly line in 2 years. Probably in 5 years production will attain a decent rate. That was always the long term goal anyway. To replace airplane imports. Russia would still be probably importing like half its aircraft. This way they will be importing none. Since the Chinese aircraft which could be an alternative will also be using Western components for the foreseeable future.

That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions. The original flights were supposed to happen with Western engines and some of the other components. I think they will have to break the program into two. One will be an assembly plant in China with Western components in it. The other will be an assembly plant in Russia with no Western components in it which will come online later. In the meantime Russia can boost Il-96 production and make improved models. This large aircraft segment is low demand anyway so it will not be a problem.

I think it is also important that Russia develops its own ticketing and booking software system. They need to cooperate with other countries like India and China on this. Whichever Western software is being used needs to be ripped out.

lancelot wrote:It is just like I said. Iran situation. They will service airplanes with their own facilities. They will do their own certification. They will put some airplanes aside and cannibalize them for parts. They will try doing their own fixes to parts. They will get parts in the black market. Sure there will be attrition. But international flights to the West have been cancelled. This likely cut down flights a lot. You will also still have Turkish, Middle Eastern, and Chinese airlines still flying to Russia. Other Asian airlines outside Japan and South Korea might start flying in. Like from Vietnam and Thailand. So who cares.

This mitigation strategy will keep aircraft flying in Russia until the Superjet-NEW and MC-21 start rolling off the assembly line in 2 years. Probably in 5 years production will attain a decent rate. That was always the long term goal anyway. To replace airplane imports. Russia would still be probably importing like half its aircraft. This way they will be importing none. Since the Chinese aircraft which could be an alternative will also be using Western components for the foreseeable future.

That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions. The original flights were supposed to happen with Western engines and some of the other components. I think they will have to break the program into two. One will be an assembly plant in China with Western components in it. The other will be an assembly plant in Russia with no Western components in it which will come online later. In the meantime Russia can boost Il-96 production and make improved models. This large aircraft segment is low demand anyway so it will not be a problem.

I think it is also important that Russia develops its own ticketing and booking software system. They need to cooperate with other countries like India and China on this. Whichever Western software is being used needs to be ripped out.

Many long range flights could be eventually be covered by the long range version of the the MC-21-400 (the MC-21-400XLR ) similarly to what Airbus will do with the Airbus A321 XLR and Boeing wants to do with The Boeing 797 / NMA (new midsize airplane). There is already the trend also in the west to cover many intercontinental flights with
narrowbodies like the A321instead of larger widebodies like the A330, A350, Boeing 787 or 777.
Previously some of the shorter intercontinental flights were covered by the Boeing 757 (also a narrowbody, similar in size to the Tu-204, but with a longer range (more than 7000km vs the about 4500 km of the tu204)).

Russia could do the same and actually the MC21-400 is a bit larger and more comfortable than the Airbus A321.

In the past Russia had the il-62, a briliiant aircraft, covering this segment.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-62

The question is when this MC-21-400 XLR variant will be ready and when the needed engines (PD16 or PD18R) will be ready.

Everything requiring a larger aircraft or even bigger range could be covered by the Il-96 (and its future twin engine derivative after 2028)

In extremis Russia could license favoured foreign airlines to operate on internal Russian routes. Much like happens in Europe.

That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions.

I think the CR929 will have way too many Western components and technology to be useful to Russia. Russia's only hope their is their Il-96 derivative with 2 PD-35. In fact, I suspect CR929 may now be a stillborn project. The Chinese certainly can't sell them to Russia or service them there (or their own aerospace companies will come under sanctions). And the Chinese may also struggle to service the Russian components outside of Russia because of those same sanctions. (Unless if they work out financial agreements outside of the dollar and euro).

JohninMK wrote:In extremis Russia could license favoured foreign airlines to operate on internal Russian routes. Much like happens in Europe.

A a temporariy fix maybe, but only for foreign routes between Russia and europe.
I find totally absurd that Ryanair and easyjet are covering many Italian routes (not even foreign flights, actual flights starting and ending between  italian cities).

Autodestruct wrote:

That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions.

I think the CR929 will have way too many Western components and technology to be useful to Russia.  Russia's only hope their is their Il-96 derivative with 2 PD-35.  In fact, I suspect CR929 may now be a stillborn project.  The Chinese certainly can't sell them to Russia or service them there (or their own aerospace companies will come under sanctions).  And the Chinese may also struggle to service the Russian components outside of Russia because of those same sanctions.  (Unless if they work out financial agreements outside of the dollar and euro).

Well, the CR929 was planned to be assembled only in Shanghai anyway. Russia shall be able to maintain production of widebodies aircraft independently, even if maybe not covering the full production of aircrafts. Half of the other widebodies could be a  "russianized" version of the CR929, possibly still assembled in Shanghai, but where the western components have been replaced (possibly with the same new components designed for the modified il96 derivative).

I do not see any problems for the Russian components for the Chinese airplanes. The 2 nations are stopping using dollars anyway. All the exchange will be done with the ruble and the yuan.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

JohninMK wrote:In extremis Russia could license favoured foreign airlines to operate on internal Russian routes. Much like happens in Europe.

A a temporariy fix maybe, but only for foreign routes between Russia and europe.
I find totally absurd that Ryanair and easyjet are covering many Italian routes (not even foreign flights, actual flights starting and ending between  italian cities).

Autodestruct wrote:

That leaves the long range aircraft segment like the 777X and A350. The CRAIC 929 will still take some time to get into service. Especially with these sanctions.

I think the CR929 will have way too many Western components and technology to be useful to Russia.  Russia's only hope their is their Il-96 derivative with 2 PD-35.  In fact, I suspect CR929 may now be a stillborn project.  The Chinese certainly can't sell them to Russia or service them there (or their own aerospace companies will come under sanctions).  And the Chinese may also struggle to service the Russian components outside of Russia because of those same sanctions.  (Unless if they work out financial agreements outside of the dollar and euro).

Well, the CR929 was planned to be assembled only in Shanghai anyway. Russia shall be able to maintain production of widebodies aircraft independently, even if maybe not covering the full production of aircrafts. Half of the other widebodies could be a  "russianized" version of the CR929, possibly still assembled in Shanghai, but where the western components have been replaced (possibly with the same new components designed for the modified il96 derivative).

I do not see any problems for the Russian components for the Chinese airplanes. The 2 nations are stopping using dollars anyway. All the exchange will be done with the ruble and the yuan.

Maybe. We will see with time. The Chinese have done almost nothing to move away from using the dollar for their trade as of this point. That may now change since the West has shown that they are willing to break all contracts, promises, and commitments when they don't get their way. Time will tell.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:I find totally absurd that Ryanair and easyjet are covering many Italian routes (not even foreign flights, actual flights starting and ending between  italian cities).

Several years ago an EU legislation appeared to allow this kind operation inside EU.

GarryB wrote:

I could see a few airlines changing their headquarters so they can continue to fly through Russian airspace...

Could be difficult, also I think they are sanctioning on the aircraft's registered 'home' country.

Ships are an interesting case with much of the World's merchant fleet registered in Liberia or Bermuda

rigoletto wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:I find totally absurd that Ryanair and easyjet are covering many Italian routes (not even foreign flights, actual flights starting and ending between  italian cities).

Several years ago an EU legislation appeared to allow this kind operation inside EU.

I know, that is another of the horrible EU laws.

I still dream when my country will finally obtain sovereignity (I am writing "get" and not "reobtain", because Italy has practically never been a real sovereign nation).
Quality of life dropped increadibly in Italy since the European Union was formed after the 1992 Maastricht Treaty (before there was the European Economic Community but it was not that intrusive to the various countries). The final nails in the coffin were the introduction of the Euro currency (i still miss the "lira" that was around when I was a teen) and the expansion of the EU to the former Warsaw pact countries.

On the other hand EASA and the standardisation of aeronautical certification and procedures has been mostly positive (except of course for the opening to foreign airlines of domestic flights inside the various countries, but this was not EASA's fault), even if most of the outcome could still be achieved with the JAA and then approval from the the various national aircraft and airworthiness authorities.

Anyway Russia is lucky to have maintained, even with all of what happened in the 90s, a national state airline, and a civil aircraft industry.

GarryB wrote:

And of course engine makers will be busy too... there should be an enormous number of new factory jobs coming up... and construction companies should be busy too....

At one end of the line is the completed aircraft, at the other is a guy with a digger creating foundations, with thousands of other jobs in between. Paid for by the excess profits on energy sales.

You couldn't make it up. If someone had suggested the current scenario a couple of years ago they would have been laughed out of court.

After bench testing of the new software, the flights of MS-21-310 resumed. 29.03.2022.

Irkut Corporation, after a month-long break, resumed flight tests of the MS-21 passenger airliner. On March 29, an experimental aircraft MS-21-310 with tail number 73055 completed a more than three-hour flight, during which the new software for the PD-14 engine control system was evaluated.

According to the test pilot, now at the LIiDK OKB im. Yakovlev in Zhukovsky, work is concentrated on an experimental aircraft 73055 with PD-14 engines. Previously, improvements were carried out on this machine, including under the import substitution program.

“Last week [March 21-27 - approx. "Aviation of Russia" ] carried out high-speed runs to evaluate the work of the modified reverse devices of the PD-14 engines. Today, a flight was performed in which the new software of the PD-14 electronic engine control system was evaluated, including the operation of engine selections for the needs of SCR, SARD, POS. Also on the plane, in one hydraulic system, a pumping station of domestic production was installed. In the process of jogging and flying, her work was evaluated, ”said Oleg Mutovin. He added that the landing also evaluated the work of the reverse and the automatic braking system.

Earlier on the same day, the TsAGI press service reported that specialists from the UAC and the institute had successfully carried out climatic and strength static tests for the load-bearing capacity of the wing box of the MS-21 aircraft, made from Russian polymer composite materials. The tests were carried out in accordance withgovernment contractdated July 28, 2021 for R&D as part of the import substitution program.

https://aviation21.ru/posle-stendovyx-ispytanij-novogo-po-vozobnovilis-polyoty-ms-21-310/

About Support for the Aviation Industry

"The rocket and space industry has a colossal resource – 170,000 highly skilled people. We are looking at helping other industries that are struggling. First of all, it is aviation. I proposed to start the production of components for aircraft engines on the basis of Energomash. We are ready to start the production of avionics for aviation on the basis of our holding company Russian Space Systems."

170,000 qualified people would come in quite handy right now you would think ...

A lot of the technology used to make working high temperature rocket engines would also be helpful to make the core of jet engines.
This could help with Izdeliye 30.

these guys ... Rosatom ..... continually pop up now in working with UEC and UAC
thermodynamic modelling .... ie digital twins to speed up design and development

Logos

Logos is a package of three digital products developed based on ROSATOM’s multi-year hardware & software developments. Each module of the family is designed for solving engineering tasks in a specific area. In fact, Logos has become the first digital product by ROSATOM that was officially launched into the Russian market. The project has a great history. It took nearly 10 years to make it a scaled software package; the development was initiated in RFNC VNIIRF back in 2009.

Logos Aero-Gidro is designed for modeling of processes in air and water media. Logos-Teplo is to assess thermal characteristics and modes of parts and units. Logos Prochnost is to solve static and dynamic strength problems.

Products by Logos have been already integrated at more than 70 enterprises of various sectors of the industry,
i.e. aircraft engineering, engine manufacture, transportation machine engineering and nuclear power.

and 3D printing .... via their TVEL division
to speed up prototyping ....
and big impact in production by reducing the number of parts needed ... you get higher quality more easily
and lower production costs via fewer parts needed to assemble

you would have to bet Rosatom must surely also be involved in CPU manufacturing development too
right up their alley .... atomic level stuff
apparently they are working on quantum computers too

Rosatom seems to be the jewel in the tech crown
Roscosmos is a sleeping giant .... in 2nd place

2025-30 is going to be a real shock for the west I suspect
these latest sanctions may well turn Russia into a true multi-industry high tech superpower - accelerate it all

MC-21 wing caisson made with all Russian composites passes strength testing.

https://aviation21.ru/kesson-kryla-ms-21-iz-rossijskix-kompozitov-ispytali-na-prochnost/

First flight of TVS-2MS with firefighting equipment carried out.

https://aviation21.ru/sostoyalsya-pervyj-polyot-samolyota-tvs-2ms-s-vodoslivnym-ustrojstvom/

Most government and media apparatchiks in the West think that Russian aviation will die. I think they are in for an unpleasant surprise.

There is no basis for this expectation in the west. Aside from hubris masturbation.

The economies of scale argument does not work since Russian domestic demand is enough to maintain an aircraft industry.
The extra cost from lack of "competition" is academic. In no way is it a show stopper. Russia clearly has all the technology
and infrastructure to manufacture its own aircraft and does not need any imports from the west. Avionics are not going
to kill this industry in Russia. It is just an adjustment process like Russia has proven over and over it can accomplish.

kvs wrote:There is no basis for this expectation in the west.   Aside from hubris masturbation.  

The economies of scale argument does not work since Russian domestic demand is enough to maintain an aircraft industry.
The extra cost from lack of "competition" is academic.   In no way is it a show stopper.   Russia clearly has all the technology
and infrastructure to manufacture its own aircraft and does not need any imports from the west.    Avionics are not going
to kill this industry in Russia.   It is just an adjustment process like Russia has proven over and over it can accomplish.

I often wonder how much of the price of a western aircraft is actually, marketing including political contributions as well as overheads like flash HQ and of course profits. Items that do not burden Russian aircraft pricing in the same way or extent.

Both Airbus and Boeing ship bare planes to China for fit-out to reduce cost/ maximise profit.

it always mystified me to be honest why they didn't keep making Tu-214s etc with PS-90 engines

all they had to do was subsidise the fuel to make them "competitive" with Airbuses etc
what difference does it really make to a country awash with oil and gas ?

and then create a special "Russia Arctic robust engine and aircraft frame safety spec" ....
that just happened to match Tu-214 spec exactly .... and nothing else ...
which therefore required a govt fuel subsidy to offset the greater weight of the "Arctic safe" aircraft ... the govt "stipulated"
all done in the finest traditions of western educated thieving lawyers and accountants ....

generally though
do you really want civil aircraft flying made out of tissue paper thin fuselages and have engine cores running at insane temperatures
just so some idiot can run a discount airline ?

.... the whole industry is totally f.ked up to me

Gazputin wrote:it always mystified me to be honest why they didn't keep making Tu-214s etc with PS-90 engines

all they had to do was subsidise the fuel to make them "competitive" with Airbuses etc
what difference does it really make to a country awash with oil and gas ?

and then create a special "Russia Arctic robust engine and aircraft frame safety spec" ....
that just happened to match Tu-214 spec exactly .... and nothing else ...
which therefore required a govt fuel subsidy to offset the greater weight of the "Arctic safe" aircraft ... the govt "stipulated"
all done in the finest traditions of western educated thieving lawyers and accountants  ....

generally though
do you really want civil aircraft flying made out of tissue paper thin fuselages and have engine cores running at insane temperatures
just so some idiot can run a discount airline ?

.... the whole industry is totally f.ked up to me

As said before, the problem is that the engine was never properly updated since the 1990s. PS90A is not a bad engine (same generation of the CFM56 of the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 NG and Airbus A340) but it never received proper upgrades to improve performances except the one developed together with Pratt and Whitney.


Still it was not that bad, and Russia should have used domestic aircrafts, at least for  state airlines (such as Aeroflot and Rossiya).
The PS-90A1 modification introduced in 2007 increased the thrust (to 17.6 tons at takeoff), but did not improve the emissions or the fuel consumption.

The one done with Pratt and Whitney (PS-90A2)
contained also several components from USA, France, Germany and Sweden. It was lighter then the base version, with improved engine controller and improved fuel consumption and emissions.

It was the one realised for the Tu-204SM aircraft.

However at the end no Russian airline decided to buy this aircraft and the interested Iranian airlines could not buy it, since it contained western components. It was not iran choice not to buy russian aircraft. It is just that Russia did not have any modern aircraft in production that was free from US component (and when the Iranian sanctions were temporarily removed it made more sense for them to order western more modern aircrafts (also because they could use the frozen money in Western banks only to buy western products)).

There should have been a version of the  upgraded engine with domestic components (the PS-90 A3) but it was never properly realised (and at this point it is not worth, since the PD16 or PD18R will take this thrust range).

Anyway, according to public available data the PS-90A1 has a specific fuel consumption that is around 9% higher than the CFM56 (of the airbus A320 and A340) (the PS-90A1 has a specific fuel consumption that is 14 %higher than the new PD-14.

However the PS-90A1 was more than a generation leap in comparison to the previous Soviet engine of this class. It has a specific fuel consumption that is 26% lower than the kuznetov NK-86 of the Ilyushin il-86.

Basically the Tu204 or Tu214 was about 9 to 10% more fuel thirsty than the equivalent Airbus aircraft when the project was cancelled.

Considering that it was a fully domestic aircraft, that using Tu204/214 and il96 would have automatically subsidized the civil aviation industry and paid for many jobs and that Russia is a fuel exporter, cancelling it was a political decision due to incompetence and corruption, not an economic one.
Tu204 or il96 are not less safe or comfortable than equivalent western airplanes and the issues present with availability of spare parts and fleet availability in comparison to Airbus and Boeing is also caused by the lack of investment on those models.


For the future, when sanctions will not exist anymore and the fully domestic russian modern aircrafts in all categories (turboprops, regional jets, midrange jets, long-range jets and widebodies) will be in production, to avoid such kind of mess, state airlines should only order russian aircrafts, and for private airlines there should be an import tariff if they want to buy or lease foreign aircrafts.

There are still about 600 Boeing 757 aircraft in operation around the world.
Whilst most have been converted to cargo configuration, there are still plenty in passenger configuration. At least 200 or so more.
Delta airlines in the USA alone still operate about 100 in passenger configuration.
In Russia itself there are about 16, which is disgraceful considering they had an equivalent in the Tu-204.

I think a programme to restore stored Tu-204's and build another 10-15 a year for the next 2 years or so should be a priority.
This gives needed time for the MC-21 to mature and be placed in production.
It also employs Russian skilled workers.
It also gives a boost to the local economy.

Those aircraft would see at least a decade of productive service, whilst the MC-21 production ramps up.
After a decade or so, they could be converted to freight configuration, or given over to the airforce, or simply sold overseas.
Or, they could be re-engined with the PD variant, giving a further productive life extension, as well as benefitting Russian engine manufacturers.
Plenty of western airliners have been re-engined.

If this crisis has done one thing, it has given and should give a boost to local Russian civil aerospace design and manufacture.
This is an opportunity that should be seized with both hands.

I also noticed on the Planespotters fleets list
the Rossiya Special Flight Detachment has about 10x Il-96s running
and another 12-15 Tu-204s and Tu-214s
couple of SSJs too

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Rossiya-Special-Flight-Detachment

seems converting some of those to civil use instead of VIP would make sense while they crank up Tu-214 production
in addition to reactivating stored Tu-204s etc as you guys said

there are also apparently 2x Il-96-400s in passenger format operating for Russ Govt agencies like the FSB
in addition to the above
and 4x Il-86s .....

other things that mystify me ...
why would Russia have any trouble repairing the hot cores of Sam-146 engines ?
Kuznetsov build the most powerful military jet engines in the world and insanely powerful rocket engines
I find it hard to believe they couldn't fix small Sam-146s standing on their dicks ....

other interesting thing I seemed to have picked up on the SSJ-100
they intend to build out 19 by new ones this year 2022
and they say there are another 10 stored "white tail" ones they intend to restore to flight
the way that reads to me
they will stop manufacture in 2023 and retool the factory for the SSJ-NEW
and in 2023 restore 10x stored jets instead

it does seem they have "buffers" to get them through for 2-3 years