Libyan Crisis #2

JohninMK wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:
It is likely Syrian MiG-29 and Su-24 are deployed to Jufra to counter Turkey.

Oh no you're back

Why would the LNA put their aircraft at such risk by moving them so far forward?

Syria is at war with Turkey. Makes sense Syria deployed MiG-29 to Libya to hunt Turkish drones. Russia not at war with Turkey.

Actually they don't hunt their drones with the migs and frankly I don't understand why. They let them come near their pantsirs so they are in range to fire on their troops.

They could just use the mig-29 on CAP and destroy anything flying above Libya. And destroying drones doesn't escalate a conflict. Russia destroys plenty of US/Israeli/Turkish drines in Syria and no one say nothing.

ultimatewarrior wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:
It is likely Syrian MiG-29 and Su-24 are deployed to Jufra to counter Turkey.

Oh no you're back

Why would the LNA put their aircraft at such risk by moving them so far forward?

Syria is at war with Turkey. Makes sense Syria deployed MiG-29 to Libya to hunt Turkish drones. Russia not at war with Turkey.

You really don't get the point do you?

Syria is not at war with Turkey, what made you think that?

Why base aircraft so close to the front lines where they are vulnerable to ground attack by for example TA SF? You put them back a bit, like al Sidr or further.

The thing is that turks report about every single attack from their drones. LNA don't. They also use drones but we haven't seen any video of them.

But at the end Haftar won the goud places specially the oil areas. GNA and turks are left with propaganda videos of their drones using tens atgm to successfully hit pick-ups.

The cost for Turkey will be interesting. They don't have an industry that can support their involvement there like russia's in Syria.

It's interesting that no one denounced Alwatyah bombing except Turkey of course.

It seems everyone is ok with that and NATO is not going to support Turkey in any war over Libya .

Isos wrote:The cost for Turkey will be interesting. They don't have an industry that can support their involvement there like russia's in Syria.

Quite the reverse. Turkey is making good money from this by selling their army plus mercenaries etc to the GNA, in exchange for the GNA staying in power. Last month they saved the GNA from losing Tripoli and the GNA is very grateful and paying for it.

In many ways the longer it goes on the better for Turkey as long as the GNA can pay the bills. This is why Sirte is so important, Turkey HAS to capture it and the associated oil facilities (undamaged) so that oil can be pumped out again to refill the coffers of the GNA.

As a side benefit, the estimated 13,000+ Syrian terrorists now in Libya are being funded by the GNA and not by Turkey which would have been the case if they were back home.

On top of that the GNA will be paying in Dollars or Euros both of which they desperately need.

So currently win-win-win on the financial front for Turkey.

Somehow if Turkey cannot get an outright win it needs sufficient peace to get the oil flowing yet not enough that the GNA feels that it can do without Turkish help. With Egypt saying it can't have Sirte!

Qatar is the main source of funding for Turkey/GNA....just like the UAE is for their opponents

Cyberspec wrote:Qatar is the main source of funding for Turkey/GNA....just like the UAE is for their opponents

Agreed but the GNA still has access to funds in Libya's oil/gas based bank accounts whilst the LNA, with only random funds from occasional tanker loads of oil, is as you say dependent on the UAE.

Libya, is a potential oil exporter so some or all of these incoming funds may be loans not gifts.

JohninMK wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:Qatar is the main source of funding for Turkey/GNA....just like the UAE is for their opponents

Agreed but the GNA still has access to funds in Libya's oil/gas based bank accounts whilst the LNA, with only random funds from occasional tanker loads of oil, is as you say dependent on the UAE.

Libya, is a potential oil exporter so some or all of these incoming funds may be loans not gifts.

That's why LNA occupies the oil and prevents GNA from exporting oil. 3 UNSC members Russia France China recognize HoR as legitimate considering GNA is Muslim Brotherhood affiliate.

@JohninMK:

Ok fair enough...

Re Sirte: without air superiority it will probably be difficult to capture it. The initial assault failed despite Sirte being defended only by a small garrison force, because the GNA columns got bombed from the air. Now there is reportedly over 10 000 LNA troops in the area

JohninMK wrote:

Isos wrote:The cost for Turkey will be interesting. They don't have an industry that can support their involvement there like russia's in Syria.

Quite the reverse. Turkey is making good money from this by selling their army plus mercenaries etc to the GNA, in exchange for the GNA staying in power. Last month they saved the GNA from losing Tripoli and the GNA is very grateful and paying for it.

In many ways the longer it goes on the better for Turkey as long as the GNA can pay the bills. This is why Sirte is so important, Turkey HAS to capture it and the associated oil facilities (undamaged) so that oil can be pumped out again to refill the coffers of the GNA.

As a side benefit, the estimated 13,000+ Syrian terrorists now in Libya are being funded by the GNA and not by Turkey which would have been the case if they were back home.

On top of that the GNA will be paying in Dollars or Euros both of which they desperately need.

So currently win-win-win on the financial front for Turkey.

Somehow if Turkey cannot get an outright win it needs sufficient peace to get the oil flowing yet not enough that the GNA feels that it can do without Turkish help. With Egypt saying it can't have Sirte!

The more countries Turkey invade, the more enemies they make. Cyprus, Iraq, Syria, and now Libya. Turkey does not get oil from anywhere in these occupied foreign lands.

JohninMK wrote:

Cyberspec wrote:Qatar is the main source of funding for Turkey/GNA....just like the UAE is for their opponents

Agreed but the GNA still has access to funds in Libya's oil/gas based bank accounts whilst the LNA, with only random funds from occasional tanker loads of oil, is as you say dependent on the UAE.

Libya, is a potential oil exporter so some or all of these incoming funds may be loans not gifts.

This is exactly why Bengazi government open bank accounts in Russia for oil/gas sales.

Cyberspec wrote:
@JohninMK:

Ok fair enough...

Re Sirte: without air superiority it will probably be difficult to capture it. The initial assault failed despite Sirte being defended only by a small garrison force, because the GNA columns got bombed from the air. Now there is reportedly over 10 000 LNA troops in the area

Agree but the TA will have lots of MANPADs.

Just noticed this. He is a GNA supporter but this is probably OK. Maybe a possible attack on Sirte from the sea with Turkish Marines?


MiddleEastWatch
@MiddleEastWatc1
·
8h
On Wednesday, a Turkish newspaper revealed that the Turkish navy is preparing to conduct one of the largest combat readiness maneuvers off the Libyan coast.
The newspaper added that the Turkish navy announced through the Turkish naval appeal, "Naftex", that it will conduct training in three axes: Barbaros, Turgut Reis and Jaca B.

Also from the same site

9h
Lavrov:
We hope that Turkey can persuade Al-Wefaq to sign a ceasefire.

9h
Lavrov: Moscow and Ankara are working to broker an immediate ceasefire in Libya.

9h
Lavrov: Haftar's forces are ready to sign a ceasefire document in Libya.

7h
Turkey’s response to Russia’s proposal for immediate ceasefire: Haftar militias must exit Sirte and Al-Jufra first.

Libyan Petroleum Corporation: Guards of the oil facilities prevented a tanker affiliated with the corporation from loading oil from Sidra Port.

4h
German Foreign Minister: We call on the Libyan parties to make Sirte a demilitarized zone.

Russian delegate to the Security Council: The military and political situation in Libya is deteriorating.

Russian delegate: Al-Wefak government does not seem to agree to halt progress towards Sirte.

Russian representative in UN: There are no Russian soldiers in Libya.

Turkey: We will continue to support Al-Wefak government under the Military Cooperation Agreement.

3h
Egyptian Foreign Minister to the UN Security Council: Achieving stability in Libya is linked to the formation of a consensual government and the dismantling of militias.

Qatari Foreign Minister: Some parties did not respect international agreements and supported the parties hostile to the legitimate government of Libya.

Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister: We consider the support of the Libyan Al-Wefak government an international commitment to enhance its legitimacy and protect civilians.

2h
Libya delegate to the United Nations: We reject any unilateral initiative that was created by international parties to support a specific party.

medo wrote:

This is exactly why Bengazi government open bank accounts in Russia for oil/gas sales.

Yes, but this is for the future, the accounts are pretty much empty now. Also another reason why the US will not support the LNA.

JohninMK wrote:

medo wrote:

This is exactly why Bengazi government open bank accounts in Russia for oil/gas sales.

Yes, but this is for the future, the accounts are pretty much empty now. Also another reason why the US will not support the LNA.

GNA is also loosing money very fast by giving everything to turks and the way Turkey is doing in Libya will push french to oblige the EU to take sanctions against them. Then it's not the GNA money that will save them.

Libyan oil is not a source of money right now. Turks are doing all that for the gaz in the mediteranean that they can exploit if GNA wins... Not for libyan oil.

LNA will start selling oil to France and EU and the bank accounts will start growing. But don't expect them to keep the money in Russia (not all of it).



US will never support Erdogan. He is a paria in US. Moreover supporting Turkey means supportig their activities in the mediteranean which means going against Greece, Egypt, Cyprus AND ISRAEL. Erdogan better give up right now, if the US start having the same speeches as UAE and Egypt about destroying Erdogan's dream he may turn Turkey into Iraq 2.0.

JohninMK wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

ultimatewarrior wrote:
It is likely Syrian MiG-29 and Su-24 are deployed to Jufra to counter Turkey.

Oh no you're back

Why would the LNA put their aircraft at such risk by moving them so far forward?

Syria is at war with Turkey. Makes sense Syria deployed MiG-29 to Libya to hunt Turkish drones. Russia not at war with Turkey.

You really don't get the point do you?

Syria is not at war with Turkey, what made you think that?

Why base aircraft so close to the front lines where they are vulnerable to ground attack by for example TA SF? You put them back a bit, like al Sidr or further.

Turkey annexed vast parts of northern Syria, massacred numerous SAA personnel, shoots at SAA on a daily basis. If that's not war I don't know what is. True, no land was formally annexed, no war was formally declared, but in this day and age this is how it works when the strong bully the weak.

Syria is at war with Turkey. Makes sense Syria deployed MiG-29 to Libya to hunt Turkish drones. Russia not at war with Turkey.

Fighter planes is not a very efficient or effective way of dealing with drones... flying aircraft around all the time would be expensive and add a lot of wear and tear on the aircraft, and air to air missiles are expensive... hundreds of times more expensive than Pantsir missiles and 30mm cannon shells.

And before you say it using a fighter plane to shoot down drones using cannon shells would be enormously risky...

Actually they don't hunt their drones with the migs and frankly I don't understand why.

Most fighter planes operate at reasonably high speed and reasonable altitude to protect them from small arms fire... going down low and slow to deal with small drones does not make sense... it exposes them to ground fire and MANPADS and the cost of one AAM to shoot down a drone it is simply not cost effective.

Pantsir is designed to engage air targets, and training ground forces to also engage air targets with small arms would be the way forward rather than tieing up expensive fighter jets.

They could just use the mig-29 on CAP and destroy anything flying above Libya. And destroying drones doesn't escalate a conflict. Russia destroys plenty of US/Israeli/Turkish drines in Syria and no one say nothing.

Does Russia use fighter aircraft to shoot down drones in Syria?

Syria is at war with Turkey. Makes sense Syria deployed MiG-29 to Libya to hunt Turkish drones. Russia not at war with Turkey.

Syria is at war with Turkey in Syria. Why take MiG-29s defending Syrian airspace away from Syria to fight in another country against Turkish troops that are no threat?

I would say hire some militia groups to go to Libya to fight against the troops Turkey has sent from Idlib to fight there because the more of those dicks that get killed the better for Syria, but remember Syrian needs for soldiers comes first in Syria.

Syria is at war with Turkey in Syria. Why take MiG-29s defending Syrian airspace away from Syria to fight in another country against Turkish troops that are no threat?

I would say hire some militia groups to go to Libya to fight against the troops Turkey has sent from Idlib to fight there because the more of those dicks that get killed the better for Syria, but remember Syrian needs for soldiers comes first in Syria.

Exactly. Syria have devense agreement with government in Bengazi and there are thousands of terrorists from Idlib fighting in Libya. It's better to send some planes to Libya and destroy terrorists there, than waiting for them to return in Idlib.

Does Russia use fighter aircraft to shoot down drones in Syria?

They have the IADS to destroy them safely. Not the case of LNA.

Fighter planes is not a very efficient or effective way of dealing with drones... flying aircraft around all the time would be expensive and add a lot of wear and tear on the aircraft, and air to air missiles are expensive... hundreds of times more expensive than Pantsir missiles and 30mm cannon shells.

And before you say it using a fighter plane to shoot down drones using cannon shells would be enormously risky...

Acutally it is.

Contrary to what Turks pretend, drones are not so much expendable and they can't replace fighters. With the migs you don't just target the drones but also the control center (which is costly to replace and available in less numbers) and the air base from where they take off. You destroy tge provlem at the root.

Pantsirs can only deal with the flying drone and even then it's not a perfect system and can be destroyed.even if you destroy them they will come back.

Acutally it is.

Contrary to what Turks pretend, drones are not so much expendable and they can't replace fighters. With the migs you don't just target the drones but also the control center (which is costly to replace and available in less numbers) and the air base from where they take off. You destroy tge provlem at the root.

Pantsirs can only deal with the flying drone and even then it's not a perfect system and can be destroyed.even if you destroy them they will come back.

Well that is different... using planes to destroy drone launch sites and control centres is rather different than having them try to fly around 24/7 looking for tiny low and slow targets...

Not necessarly 24/7. Once it destroys the drones it won't need to make sorties anymore. I doubt Turkey has more than 10 drones there. Once all are destroyed, they just need the mig to bomb any cargo ship trying to bring more and look for any control center.  

Libya must be full of older r-60 missile that can do the work. No need for the expensive r-73.

Pantsirs are good but the best defence is attack...

Just tought about something. The new pantsirs there may be russian ones directly from their inventory. The money will be used to buy the more capable SM variant that is ready.

medo wrote:

Syria is at war with Turkey in Syria. Why take MiG-29s defending Syrian airspace away from Syria to fight in another country against Turkish troops that are no threat?

I would say hire some militia groups to go to Libya to fight against the troops Turkey has sent from Idlib to fight there because the more of those dicks that get killed the better for Syria, but remember Syrian needs for soldiers comes first in Syria.

Exactly. Syria have devense agreement with government in Bengazi and there are thousands of terrorists from Idlib fighting in Libya. It's better to send some planes to Libya and destroy terrorists there, than waiting for them to return in Idlib.

We can expect Turkey recruit thousands of terrorists in Tripoli and send them to Idlib to take over Damascus. SAA need to strike GNA in Libya or else Turkey send thousands of GNA to Idlib to attack Damascus.

Egyptian military drill today near the Libyan borders and sea borders .

“Hasm 2020” maneuver on the Western strategic direction, including a training for the Air Force to face mercenaries of irregular armies and target their hotbeds, Tamer Al-Refaei, the military spokesman said in a statement.

https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/89466/Hasm-2020-Egyptian-Army-carries-out-wide-scale-exercise-to