Libyan Crisis #2

It's not easy to go with F-16 or Mirage-2000 or Mig-29 all that distance and go back without using air refueling .

The Turks didn't know who did it ,so who ever did it didn't use a tanker or else he would be easily detected from the Turkish frigates and othe NATO frigates near to the Libyan costs .

But Rafale could do it without air refueling .France denied the operation ,so i see Egypt's hands there .

ahmedfire wrote:It's not easy to go with F-16 or Mirage-2000 or Mig-29 all that distance and go back without using air refueling .

The Turks didn't know who did it ,so who ever did it didn't use a tanker or else he would be easily detected from the Turkish frigates and other NATO frigates near to the Libyan costs .

But Rafale could do it without air refueling .France denied the operation ,so i see Egypt's hands there .

Surely they wouldn't have flown in a straight line like that over the Gulf, that would have been virtually over the ships? Also, did the aircraft have to fly that far given their standoff missiles?

Much more likely is a southern and much longer route over the Sahara with refueling beyond the radar coverage of the Turkish ships. The UAE has tankers as well as their Mirage and F-16s.

Surely they wouldn't have flown in a straight line like that over the Gulf, that would have been virtually over the ships? Also, did the aircraft have to fly that far given their standoff missiles?

Much more likely is a southern and much longer route over the Sahara with refueling beyond the radar coverage of the Turkish ships. The UAE has tankers as well as their Mirage and F-16s.

I'm just showing the straight distance to give an image about the situation but sure  the operation route in not through the sea .

Some sources said the hit was done 70km away from the air base ,i guess standoff was in that range .

I believe tankers would be spotted from some other sides like AFRICOM , Algeria or French base in Mali .

I guess who did it has flied low to earth to avoid being detected and he didn't use tankers .

Refueling would happen at mid-route. Not above the Libyan coast.

The radar coverage is shitty in Lybia. It could have happened pretty much anywhere.

Turkish frigates can't see that far.

Moreover, Egyptian Rafale and Mig29 can refuel the emiratis mirage. Maybe not the mig-29 because not the  same fuel but maybe they can refuel only from their external tanks whike the mig fly on its interbal russian fuel.

France has no interest in attacking Turkey directly when Egypt, UAE abd Haftar can do it. They probably gave green light and provided behind the door support against US or Nato reactions and probably some real time image of the base.

Jalel Harchaoui
@JMJalel_H
· 51 min
Reports allege #Turkey’s drones just hit a #Wagner-manned Pantsir in #Sokna / #Jufrah area, killing 3 #Russian mercs.

If true, it would mean the #Turkish-drone moratorium of May 21st is really over.

Would also indicate assault on #Jufrah has begun, soon to be followed w/ Sirte.

Fake

GNA rejected those claims .

ahmedfire wrote:
Fake

GNA rejected those claims .

That doesn't make it fake to be fair just because they say it is.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

ahmedfire wrote:
Fake

GNA rejected those claims .

That doesn't make it fake to be fair just because they say it is.

LNA and GNA and Aljazeera rejected that , actually they would release the video quickly if they did it ,it's their style .

Wagner agreed to go back from the front last month and turkish UAVs didn't touch them.

Why would turks target them and make russians angry when they are being bombed by Egypt/UAE/France ? There is no point for them to attck a powerful enemy right now when they lost 3 AD systems.

Isos wrote:Wagner agreed to go back from the front last month and turkish UAVs didn't touch them.

Why would turks target them and make russians angry when they are being bombed by Egypt/UAE/France ? There is no point for them to attck a powerful enemy right now when they lost 3 AD systems.

Oversizing  Wagner is a Turkish propaganda so that they pull US on their side .

Wagner could be exist but they have no much power for war ,the main power there is LNA .

Who striked Alwatyah is not Russia for sure .

Anyway they don't touch them. Wagner is the one operating pantsirs and the mig29 and su-24 there. They matter in the war.

Isos wrote:Anyway they don't touch them. Wagner is the one operating pantsirs and the mig29 and su-24 there. They matter in the war.

LNA has many pilots who served in Qaddafi time ,also many Libyans pilots were trained in Egypt and Jordan since 2013 .

Did Libya operate su-24 ?

Mig-29 not. They don't have pilots in Libya for them.

Pilots are russians for sure. Only russia can train them for the mig-29 and the su-24M. Egyptian mig-29 are not the same as the one delivered to LNA. France and UAE don't operate it either and can't train them. Only Wagner is left.

Isos wrote:Did Libya operate su-24 ?

Mig-29 not. They don't have pilots in Libya for them.

Pilots are russians for sure. Only russia can train them for the mig-29 and the su-24M. Egyptian mig-29 are not the same as the one delivered to LNA. France and UAE don't operate it either and can't train them. Only Wagner is left.

Yes they had operated Su-24 at Qaddafi time .

Actually there is no sign for operating Mig-29 , yes it was spotted on air base but after that disappeared .

It does seem likely that the Pantsir attack happened and that 3 Wagner Russians died and in the attack.

The reason the GNA then denied it was that they were not involved, didn't actually do it and might not have known much about it. It was Turks that were killed in the airfield attack so it was the Turks who did this attack themselves in revenge.

The GNA/TA seem to be continuing to reinforce their forces west of Sirte. It looks to be 'combined operations' with Turkish officers directly leading ex Syrian and local troops.

I have little doubt that the Turks will use this as a trial run for a, different than last time, way of operating back in Idlib. If they are successful in Libya, the SAA will be facing a very different enemy, with properly trained and battle hardened Syrians returning home from Libya. They really need to strike now before that happens and whilst Turkey is occupied on two fronts.

There is one thing to think about, when we talk aboult those MiG-29 and Su-24M in Libya. There were two batches of them. One went to Libya and the second stay in Syria and was delivered to SyAF in Hmeimim. In that ceremony it was said, that this is the second batch of those planes delivered to Syrian AF. Syria have experienced pilots to fly both types and Syria have military agreemnt with Libyan government in Bengazi and they have commone enemy Turkey. There is a good chance, that those MiGs and Sukhois are flown with Syrian pilots. They have a lot of experiences with modern fighting as they fly together with RuAF for years now. UAE also restore diplomatic relations with Damascus and Syria would bw very willing to send those planes and pilots to Libya, when UAE pay for them. Syria need money for rebuilding the country and money from UAE is very wellcome. It was said, that there were more strikes. So it is possible, that Egypt provide anti radar missiles as Kh-31P for LNA Su-24M and they did the first strike with anti radar missiles to destroy Turkish radars and Koral ECM complex. When radars are out, Mirages and rafales could easily come for next vawe of strikes as Turks could not see them and refueling planes. If they did attacks with laser guided bombs, than they fly near enough, that Turks and GNA could see, they are not LNA planes. If France was actualy helping with planing the strike, than this will be seen from Turkey point of view as attack from NATO ally. In all this story we must not forget Greece. UAE and KSA finance Greece against Turkey.

ahmedfire wrote:

Isos wrote:Did Libya operate su-24 ?

Mig-29 not. They don't have pilots in Libya for them.

Pilots are russians for sure. Only russia can train them for the mig-29 and the su-24M. Egyptian mig-29 are not the same as the one delivered to LNA. France and UAE don't operate it either and can't train them. Only Wagner is left.

Yes they had operated Su-24 at Qaddafi time .

Actually there is no sign for operating Mig-29 , yes it was spotted on air base but after that disappeared .

That was 11 years ago and even older since they didn't fly them. Who knows if the pilots are still operatives and for who they work.

There was an image taken by satelitte with a mig-29 flying above the base. Mig-29 are still there. There was no point of sending them for 2 days there...

@medo

You are right. I forgot the syrians. The guy that has the twitter account SyrianMC has made a tweet about him leaving for Libya. I guess they send some military there but no one really knows for what. I think he is in the AD forces. Maybe help with pantsirs and radars.

Both batches went to Hmeimim base and than the first batch fly from Hmeimim to Libya. Russia officialy deliver both batches to Syrian air force. I would not be surprised if UAE pay for both batches and modernization of planes. UAE could as well pay for more advanced weapons, than ordinary free fall bombs. It could be coordinated attack of UAE and Syrian AF flying for LNA. Syrians would be more than willing to return a favour for Turkish support of terrorists in Idlib. I wonder, what markings those planes in Libya have. Syrian or Libyan?

JohninMK wrote:It does seem likely that the Pantsir attack happened and that 3 Wagner Russians died and in the attack.

The reason the GNA then denied it was that they were not involved, didn't actually do it and might not have known much about it. It was Turks that were killed in the airfield attack so it was the Turks who did this attack themselves in revenge.

The GNA/TA seem to be continuing to reinforce their forces west of Sirte. It looks to be 'combined operations' with Turkish officers directly leading ex Syrian and local troops.

I have little doubt that the Turks will use this as a trial run for a, different than last time, way of operating back in Idlib. If they are successful in Libya, the SAA will be facing a very different enemy, with properly trained and battle hardened Syrians returning home from Libya. They really need to strike now before that happens and whilst Turkey is occupied on two fronts.

Turkish army is crawling all over Idlib province, nothing the SAA can do anymore.

There are reports of an airstrike on a GNA column west of Sirte.

And a LNA MiG-21 doing a very low pass at Al-Jufrah airbase
https://twitter.com/LNA2019M/status/1280638128085176332

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

JohninMK wrote:It does seem likely that the Pantsir attack happened and that 3 Wagner Russians died and in the attack.

The reason the GNA then denied it was that they were not involved, didn't actually do it and might not have known much about it. It was Turks that were killed in the airfield attack so it was the Turks who did this attack themselves in revenge.

The GNA/TA seem to be continuing to reinforce their forces west of Sirte. It looks to be 'combined operations' with Turkish officers directly leading ex Syrian and local troops.

I have little doubt that the Turks will use this as a trial run for a, different than last time, way of operating back in Idlib. If they are successful in Libya, the SAA will be facing a very different enemy, with properly trained and battle hardened Syrians returning home from Libya. They really need to strike now before that happens and whilst Turkey is occupied on two fronts.

Turkish army is crawling all over Idlib province, nothing the SAA can do anymore.

Idlib city is a small city, not even 100,000 people. No one cares about Idlib city. No oil, no gas, no ocean, no strategic value.

Isos wrote:Wagner agreed to go back from the front last month and turkish UAVs didn't touch them.

Why would turks target them and make russians angry when they are being bombed by Egypt/UAE/France ? There is no point for them to attck a powerful enemy right now when they lost 3 AD systems.

And the last thing the Turks need is S-400 deployed to Jufra and Putin restarting the offensive on Idlib city.

medo wrote:Both batches went to Hmeimim base and than the first batch fly from Hmeimim to Libya. Russia officialy deliver both batches to Syrian air force. I would not be surprised if UAE pay for both batches and modernization of planes. UAE could as well pay for more advanced weapons, than ordinary free fall bombs. It could be coordinated attack of UAE and Syrian AF flying for LNA. Syrians would be more than willing to return a favour for Turkish support of terrorists in Idlib. I wonder, what markings those planes in Libya have. Syrian or Libyan?

It is likely Syrian MiG-29 and Su-24 are deployed to Jufra to counter Turkey. Considering Turkey all in name annexed large chunks of Syria, the country Syrians hate the most is Turkey. With the restoration of ties between Benghazi government and Damascus government earlier this year, it is likely Syria is involved in war against Turkey in Libya.

ultimatewarrior wrote:

Isos wrote:Wagner agreed to go back from the front last month and turkish UAVs didn't touch them.

Why would turks target them and make russians angry when they are being bombed by Egypt/UAE/France ? There is no point for them to attck a powerful enemy right now when they lost 3 AD systems.

And the last thing the Turks need is S-400 deployed to Jufra and Putin restarting the offensive on Idlib city.

And the S-400 would destroy before it goes active. Even if they activate it, it would be alone with 24 missiles ready to launch only. Easy to overwhelm.

ultimatewarrior wrote:
It is likely Syrian MiG-29 and Su-24 are deployed to Jufra to counter Turkey.

Oh no you're back

Why would the LNA put their aircraft at such risk by moving them so far forward?