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    Syrian War: News #22

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:17 pm

    par far wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    par far wrote:https://southfront.org/failed-putin-erdogan-meeting/

    Southfront is doghsit source



    They do post stuff that is un-true but the everything in the video in the link is true.

    I dont know and I wouldn't wager that.

    I would steer clear of South Front. They are full of crap.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:39 pm

    Reminder maps. Just in case.

    Syrian War: News #22 - Page 37 FAiMXyEWEAQx1Ic?format=jpg&name=medium

    Syrian War: News #22 - Page 37 FAiMqpaX0Aod0j4?format=jpg&name=medium

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:23 am

    Maybe no action in Idlib yet. This is part of an analysis of the Erdogan/Putin meeting

    The parties initially did not intend to voice agreement on Syria. This is a necessity in the current conditions, when Moscow demands that Ankara fulfill is March 2020 agreements and to unblock the M4 motorway in Idlib, and Ankara in turn demands Moscow to fulfill the 2019 memorandum related to the withdrawal of the Kurdish YPGs from Manbij and Tel Rifaat.

    ...................

    Erdogan's statement on Crimea at the UN was far from the first. But this sounded against the background of active strikes by Russian jets on the resettled Idlib, which invariably contributes to new flows of internally displaced persons and the radicalization of the population. Thus, no matter what Russian experts write before the talks on Ankara's vulnerable position in Syria, it is still not profitable for the Kremlin to roughly push the operation in Idlib and increase the intensity of strikes in other zones with the presence of the Turkish military and the rebels interacting with them.

    Attempts to move Assad's army deep into Idlib can not only meet resistance from the Turkish armed forces, but also provoke a Turkish offensive into Manbij and Tel Rifaat. After all, it is extremely difficult for Moscow to fulfill its obligations under the 2019 memorandum, since they can offer little to the Kurds when the Americans maintain a presence in eastern Syria. In this sense, Russia's most advantageous scenario for restraining Turkey is maintaining the existing Syrian status quo, and Moscow and Ankara are well aware of this.


    https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/09/putin-erdogan-hold-closed-door-summit-sochi
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Oct 01, 2021 10:06 am

    Why is Moscow required to make the Kurds do something? Russia has no control over the Kurds... they are American pawns.

    If Turkey wants to attack the Kurds then go right ahead... they can openly fight against US forces in a way Russia is trying not to...
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:03 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    If Turkey wants to attack the Kurds then go right ahead... they can openly fight against US forces in a way Russia is trying not to...

    Then just watch the US back away as fast as it can. Body bags from Kabul is one thing but from Syria they just can't be allowed to happen.

    If it happens then the US/Turkey relationship is dead, as well as probably Turkey in NATO. As it would mark the point at which the US unipolar regime really began to crumble the pressure on Turkey not to do it must be huge.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:22 pm

    If this is the start, we should probably expect the 'evil Assad slaughtering civilians in Idlib' campaign to kick into action.

    Liveuamap MiddleEast
    @lummideast
    · 3h
    Civilians were wounded in artillery shelling by the pro-Assad forces on a camp for the displaced near the village of Batna, north of Idlib. https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2021/1-october-civilians-were-wounded-in-artillery-shelling-by
    via @RadioAlKul #Syria
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:51 pm

    We will see.

    syrseal
    @syrseal44
    · 1h
    just learned from Russian sources. one month deadline for militants to withdraw from the south of Idlib above the M4 and halve the Tr checkpoint

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    lyle6
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    Post  lyle6 Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:18 pm

    It appears that a certain Tiger is letting of its leash:

    Get your kilomemes folder ready, and remember, invest in olive oil stocks - the Turks and their butt buddies are going to need it.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:38 pm

    Living dangerously, or does he know he is safe saying it?

    syrseal
    @syrseal44
    ·
    5h
    Retired Turkish admiral Turker Erturk:

    We are surrounded by Iran and Russia in the Syrian province of Idlib.
    In Idlib, we protect extremist and terrorist groups.
    In contrast to the presence of Iran and Russia, our presence in Syria is contrary to international law.

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    medo
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    Post  medo Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:06 pm

    https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-bashar-assad-lebanon-israel-iran-fbdbd6e9824f46917be237b0b1a20d7a

    BEIRUT (AP) — Syrian air defenses responded on Friday night to an Israeli strike targeting a military airbase in the country’s central province of Homs, Syrian state media said. The airstrike wounded six soldiers, the report said.

    The report quoted an unnamed military official as saying the airstrike took place shortly after 9 p.m., and that it reached as far as the military’s T4 airbase in the desert.

    The official said the Syrian air defenses hit most of the incoming missiles. But he reported that six soldiers were wounded in the attack and that there was unspecified damage. There were no further details.


    https://avia.pro/news/pvo-sirii-otbili-besprecedentnuyu-izrailskuyu-ataku-na-podgotovku-kotoroy-ushyol-mesyac?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

    Сирийские средства ПВО отбили одну из наиболее спланированных атак Израиля.

    Незадолго до полуночи Силы обороны Израиля запустили новую масштабную атаку против Сирии, выпустив по сирийской провинции Хомс значительное количество ракет. По предварительным данным, в атаке Израиль задействовал и свои оперативно-тактические ракетные комплексы, очевидно, намереваясь обмануть сирийские средства противовоздушной обороны и неизвестные комплексы РЭБ, препятствующие успешным атакам ЦАХАЛ. Тем не менее, как и в четырёх предыдущих случаях, сирийским средствам противовоздушной обороны удалось успешно отразить атаку израильских военных, сбив практически все ракеты.

    Под удары израильских ВВС попала авиабаза Тияс, авиабаза Шайрат, военный аэродром Эль-Кусейр и ряд иных объектов. По сообщениям источников, ущерб либо сведён к минимуму, либо же полностью отсутствует. Оценочно эффективность работы средств ПВО Сирии вновь превысила отметку в 90% успешных перехватов, в то время как остальные израильские ракеты удалось вывести из строя или же отклонить благодаря средствам радиоэлектронного подавления.

    По пока что неподтверждённым данным, отражение атаки на Сирию велось и с территории Тартуса. Предположительно, перехват ракет осуществляли российские военные, поскольку израильские ракеты угрожали базе ВМФ России, расположенной на территории этого города, но официальных подтверждений этим сведениям со стороны российского военного командования пока что нет.

    Известно о том, что в отражении атаки на Сирию принимали участие ЗРК «Оса», ЗРПК «Бук-М2Э» и ЗРПК «Панцирь-С».

    Syrian air defenses repulsed one of Israel's most planned attacks.

    Just before midnight, the Israel Defense Forces launched a new large-scale attack against Syria, firing a significant number of rockets at the Syrian province of Homs. According to preliminary data, Israel also used its operational-tactical missile systems in the attack, obviously intending to deceive the Syrian air defense systems and unknown electronic warfare systems that impede successful attacks by the IDF. Nevertheless, as in the four previous cases, the Syrian air defense systems managed to successfully repel the attack of the Israeli military, shooting down almost all the missiles.

    Tiyas airbase, Shayrat airbase, El-Quseir military airfield and a number of other objects were hit by the Israeli Air Force. According to sources, damage is either minimized or completely absent. The estimated effectiveness of the Syrian air defense systems again exceeded 90% of successful interceptions, while the rest of the Israeli missiles were disabled or deflected thanks to electronic countermeasures.

    According to so far unconfirmed reports, the attack on Syria was repelled from the territory of Tartus. Presumably, the interception of the missiles was carried out by the Russian military, since Israeli missiles were threatening a Russian naval base located on the territory of this city, but there is still no official confirmation of this information from the Russian military command.

    It is known that the Osa air defense missile system, the Buk-M2E air defense missile system and the Pantsir-S air defense missile system took part in repelling the attack on Syria.

    https://twitter.com/ainiladra/status/1446749182577025026

    zionists attacked the t4 airport in syria last night from over the us tanf military base in the south of the country https://twitter.com/SAMSyria0/status/1446562172084051969?s=20 six syrian soldiers wounded & some material damage though most of the missiles were downed by syrian air defenses

    https://twitter.com/SAMSyria0/status/1446827003043254273

    Israeli warplanes made massive attack on T-4 airbase in central Syria in Homs governorate. They flow through Jordanian air space and launched missiles at Al Tanf US base. Syrian air defense shot down majority of missiles and it looks they only hit the edge of runway, minor damage. Great work for Syrian air defense.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:31 am

    GEROMAN -- Eyes -
    @GeromanAT
    ·
    2h
    Russian Ministry of Defense:
    On October 8, at 21.33, six F-16 tactical fighters of the Israeli Air Force crossed the borders of the Syrian Arab Republic in the Al-Tanf region, firing 12 guided missiles at T4 Airport in Homs Governorate.
    Mir
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    Post  Mir Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:21 pm

    Russia warned the Israelis on several occasions before - Russia should respond by downing any Israeli planes entering Syrian airspace.
    The West will scream and shout but it will stop Israel from doing these attacks.
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    Post  Hole Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:18 pm

    They don´t enter syrian airspace. Nonetheless they should be shot down.
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    Post  JohninMK Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:10 pm

    syrseal
    @syrseal44
    ·
    20h
    Jessica McNulty, a spokeswoman for the US Department of Defense, as saying that 900 US soldiers will remain stationed in northeastern Syria and at the Al-Tanf crossing, where the main goal of their presence is to work with the SDF to combat ISIS in the region.
    Mir
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    Post  Mir Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:52 pm

    Hole wrote:They don´t enter syrian airspace. Nonetheless they should be shot down.

    Or at least give them a bit of a surprise! Laughing

    Syrian War: News #22 - Page 37 Interc11
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:38 pm

    Hole wrote:They don´t enter syrian airspace. Nonetheless they should be shot down.

    With everything Iran is sending in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen they will be shot down on their parkings very soon IMO.

    The number of cruise and ballistic missiles there must be really huge. And we are not talking about dumb rockets.

    Those attacks are pretty useless anyway. They manage to hit some tinny and empty buildings.

    syrseal
    @syrseal44
    ·
    20h
    Jessica McNulty, a spokeswoman for the US Department of Defense, as saying that 900 US soldiers will remain stationed in northeastern Syria and at the Al-Tanf crossing, where the main goal of their presence is to work with the SDF to combat ISIS in the region.

    In good english "to combat"= "to pump" , "ISIS"="OIL".

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:05 am

    Medo wrote :


    ".....Israeli warplanes made massive attack on T-4 airbase in central Syria in Homs governorate. They flow through Jordanian air space and launched missiles at Al Tanf US base. Syrian air defense shot down majority of missiles and it looks they only hit the edge of runway, minor damage. Great work for Syrian air defense...."

    Why the Israelis not use usual route of Lebanon airspace or MED sea ? Maybe they fear Rocket from Lebanon ? Maybe they want to expand war to Jordan ? Let one Arab nation fight another ? So SAA can retaliate against Jordan ? A minor retaliation with no deliberate loss of life .  Put picture on tv ? Embarrass the Jordanians ? Russians should not mind this ! No danger of war to them and no Nukes . How long can Jordan sit on the fence ? And who will they hit out against ? Arab neighbour or Zionist  ? Turn the tables.......?
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    Post  JohninMK Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:49 am

    nomadski wrote:
    Why the Israelis not use usual route of Lebanon airspace or MED sea ? Maybe they fear Rocket from Lebanon ? Maybe they want to expand war to Jordan ?

    They have used the Jordan and al Tanf route a few times before. It is closer to targets in the middle of Syria like T4 for launching missiles and perhaps glide bombs, so it makes sense.
    medo
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    Post  medo Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:41 pm

    nomadski wrote:Medo wrote :


    ".....Israeli warplanes made massive attack on T-4 airbase in central Syria in Homs governorate. They flow through Jordanian air space and launched missiles at Al Tanf US base. Syrian air defense shot down majority of missiles and it looks they only hit the edge of runway, minor damage. Great work for Syrian air defense...."

    Why the Israelis not use usual route of Lebanon airspace or MED sea ? Maybe they fear Rocket from Lebanon ? Maybe they want to expand war to Jordan ? Let one Arab nation fight another ? So SAA can retaliate against Jordan ? A minor retaliation with no deliberate loss of life .  Put picture on tv ? Embarrass the Jordanians ? Russians should not mind this ! No danger of war to them and no Nukes . How long can Jordan sit on the fence ? And who will they hit out against ? Arab neighbour or Zionist  ? Turn the tables.......?

    Because this strike route is through desert, where there is no strong air defense presence in contrast to more populate western part of Syria, where is strong air defense network.
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    Post  nomadski Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:45 pm

    So they use it , because it is easier route . And Jordan is not neutral in this . By providing airspace is helping Israel . I have said before that a purely defensive war by Russia in Syria is too expensive in long term . Not viable . You can not develop a nation that is under constant attack .  A counter strike by Syria , against an attacker , that is non-lethal , can be much more effective . A demonstrative strike that takes out electricity or TV temporarily , will have a huge political  impact and deterrence value . Makes no difference who attacker is . Turks or Israel or Jordan . I think the Russians or Iranians  are hoping that problem goes away , if they ignore it long enough . Like Einstein said that definition of madness is repeating the same thing and expecting a different result !
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    Post  GarryB Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:28 am

    I think the Russians or Iranians are hoping that problem goes away , if they ignore it long enough . Like Einstein said that definition of madness is repeating the same thing and expecting a different result !

    Or they are thinking the Israeli attacks are mere pinpricks that are not actually doing a lot of damage but are good advertisements in the region for Russian air defence systems.... and they are selling SAMs to Syria one assumes too.

    They are clearly picking their battles and preparing... and the Syrians are getting better and better at using their air defence systems too.
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:30 am

    GarryB wrote:

    They are clearly picking their battles and preparing... and the Syrians are getting better and better at using their air defence systems too.

    Nothing like some real world practice to hone your skills and improve products. No doubt the RuAF are learning at the same time.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Tue Oct 12, 2021 1:02 pm


    Regarding these attacks being insignificant , I am not sure . Over the past few years , there must have been hundreds of attacks with much casualties and damage . And the need to use many air defence assets . Who pays for them ? I am not sure if Syria pays or Russia or Iran donate some systems . So it costs money , whoever pays . The Americans may be able to afford this . Especially if it costs less to attack and more to defend . But can Syria afford it ? Even if they could , why should they waste money ? When a simple Rocket or drone does a better job ? Let the attackers defend and run out of expensive SAM . Use a drone or Rocket instead to hit them . Syrians can borrow some from Lebanon or Yemen . Problem solved .
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    Post  GarryB Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:50 am

    Regarding these attacks being insignificant , I am not sure . Over the past few years , there must have been hundreds of attacks with much casualties and damage .

    In the context of the war it is not turning the tide in favour of the ISIS terrorists Israel is supporting in this conflict...

    But part of learning from experience is working out how to minimise casualties on your side too... which they are hopefully taking into account.

    And the need to use many air defence assets . Who pays for them ? I am not sure if Syria pays or Russia or Iran donate some systems . So it costs money , whoever pays .

    It is the best possible test of the system without the threat of US invasion and regime change.

    Russia would be getting an excellent overview of what is happening and the Syrians are part of that air defence network now too and you would think over time the Israelis would be getting better with more success, but it seems that the Syrians are getting better too.

    The Americans may be able to afford this

    In money terms this is probably all free to Israel, and the US will be seeing this as real world tests too so they will be interested in the results as well, but no matter what they say publicly, internally it might be rather interesting listening to US MIC people explain the failures of their systems over and over and their attempts to tweak them to get them to be more effective and more efficient and having them get shot down again and again.

    I am pretty sure the makers of the F-35 would like to say that the F-35 can dominate Syrian airspace at will and drop cheap dumb bombs to take out targets because all the Russian air defence stuff is useless against it, but instead the Israelis are using F-16s for these attacks... and why wouldn't they... they are not stealthy either but orders of magnitude cheaper to operate and faster and better payload and better range....

    Especially if it costs less to attack and more to defend . But can Syria afford it ?

    The point is that no one can afford not to defend, but creating an organised integrated air defence network is the key to any defence...

    Without an IADS you basically have individual groups that might work localised as small teams but are not coordinated and working together.

    Very simply having a central radar network that offers excellent large area coverage means your individual batteries don't need to remain on high alert 24/7 giving away their own positions using their own radars all the time so they can see what is coming.

    Imagine the performance of a fire brigade if they had to drive around the place all the time looking for smoke... imagine a fire occurring at the end of a 10 hour shift for instance... whereas instead having your fire fighters at the station cleaning and doing maintenance but waiting for a call means they are more ready to respond and deal with fires.

    Even if they could , why should they waste money ? When a simple Rocket or drone does a better job ? Let the attackers defend and run out of expensive SAM . Use a drone or Rocket instead to hit them . Syrians can borrow some from Lebanon or Yemen . Problem solved .

    Syria attacking Israel the way Israel attacks Syria would lead to serious escalations in attacks and a lot of sympathy for Israel, and it would actually do much good either... Israel would escalate attacks rather than stop them... and an escalation does not help Syria...
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    Post  nomadski Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:10 pm

    GarreyB wrote :

    "..In the context of the war it is not turning the tide in favour of the ISIS terrorists Israel is supporting in this conflict..." Agree , but Israel still weakens the Syrian state by forcing a war on it to spend money and loose men and material and be denied support from Iran or other state , by denial of trade routes and arms supplies . So the proxy is defeated , but they themselves take action . So significance of attacks is not lost in terms of overall impact on Syria .

    "...Syria attacking Israel the way Israel attacks Syria would lead to serious escalations in attacks and a lot of sympathy for Israel, and it would actually do much good either... Israel would escalate attacks rather than stop them... and an escalation does not help Syria..." . Disagree . First Syria can not attack , nor should it attack , the way Israel does , even if it could . But counter-attack it should . You mentioned Israel being able to escalate . Why ? Because it has numerically superior arms ? In that case because of their superior arms , they should have by now annihilated the Arabs and Lebanese and Palestinians . And the Americans should have annihilated the Afghans and Iraqis and Libyans and Syrians and Iranians .....

    No nation , however strong , is immune from counter-attack . And their ability to withstand the losses or pain is also important . It does not take much for a civilian populations living in these " strong " nations , who by definition are living in relative peace and security , to become disgruntled by disturbances in their daily routine . It will be felt as a major inconvenience and become unacceptable . Loss of liberty and luxuries for a short time will have a positive political impact . Such as loss of TV or telephone or Radio or power or even water . The Israelis may not be as keen to escalate as we think , despite their F35 ! So sure go ahead , build IADS for Syria . Success rate of 90% means their attacks , even if increased is of limited value . But let Syrians throw in a few SRBM into Tel-Aviv water works or TV . The Israelis watch too much reality TV anyways . This will bring the reality home to them . Stop the attacks altogether .

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