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    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Mon Jan 29, 2024 8:13 pm






    They are a bit stuck ! If they attack from their bases in Iraq or Syria , then they can be targeted in various ways , including ground troops . If they attack from PG littoral states or Saudi , the same with even more painful disruption to oil and world economy . If they attack from their Submarines , there simply is not enough firepower . If from Aircrap carriers , then easy targets . They have wargamed this scenario a billion times themselves , no favourable outcome for them ! Nor for Iran . Looks like as long as there is resistance against them , then attacks will continue and hard to stop . Only way is to stop supporting Israel , and withdraw forces from ME region . BTW does anyone know where their aircraft are flying from ? If their carriers are out of range ?


    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2 - Page 32 1f602



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    ahmedfire
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    Post  ahmedfire Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:03 am

    @nomadski

    Recently some aircrafts came from Bahrain against AL Houthi but i doubt gulf countries could allow US to use it's bases there directly against Iran .

    As you said their scenarios are nearly blocked , on the other side the enemy is the resistance with secured hidden supplies and bases, hard to be destroyed completely .

    US will do only big hits for media show without concrete outcome .

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    par far


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    Post  par far Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:52 pm



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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:10 pm

    It doesn't seem they can do even propaganda strikes in desertic areas.

    Iran won't allow such strikes because that would be a situation like US can hit them anyday they want.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:29 pm

    Directly hitting Iranians means Iranians directly hitting Americans ! Shares in Aspirin will skyrocket with all these brain concussions . Or if some killed , then the undertaker celebrates !






    Last edited by nomadski on Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:48 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:44 pm

    Actually they said even if no casualty or damage is made they will strike back at US ships.

    US said they will strike iranian targets.

    None will back down. US will be removed from the gulf. Oil price will skyrocket for next year at least.

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    SolidarityWithRussia


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    Post  SolidarityWithRussia Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:51 pm

    They cannot use 3 dead Americans killed by Iranian allies as a casus belli, but they can use it to provoke Iran until they get their casus belli. That is what I fear. Of course the report from the Duran about how the US allegedly has secretly begged Iran to allow them to save face makes me hopeful, but I would not put too much faith in that. There are too many Zionst maniacs in Washington who would seriously want a big war with Iran, which could escalate much quicker than US citizens can build up enough resistance against it.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Feb 01, 2024 9:39 pm

    By saying they will respond at any kind of attacks against Iran soil, iranian people or iranian interest made all their plans useless unless they want a war.

    They already hit americans when the go to war republicans were at power. It's not Biden that will scare them.

    And it's not Iranians. They surrounded by enemy militias and Russia will be happy to export those geran 2 there. They build 300-500 per months according to some reports but barely use 50 of them each months. They have a huge stock that is waiting gor US targets and not Ukrainian ones.

    And I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is currently building hundreds of iranian ballistic missiles for themselves and for exporting to anyone fighting the US.

    Add to this that combining the russian oil controled by Russia, the iranian will control the oil in the Hormuz and Venezuelan oil and the Houtis controling the Suez entry makes the west being hold by the balls. Their economy will shrink as soon as Iran starts firing its missiles.

    All the tanker going inthe red sea will be destroyed and it will take years to rebuild it and rebuild arab oil fields.

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Fri Feb 02, 2024 2:20 am

    By saying they will respond at any kind of attacks against Iran soil, iranian people or iranian interest made all their plans useless unless they want a war.

    War seems to be the only thing the US is interested in and if Iran does have to go to war with the US... now would actually be a rather good time for them to fight because the US is distracted and Russia doesn't have any peace negotiations going with Europe or the US or Kiev so they would be more likely to actually help Iran out if asked.

    Obviously the Russians wont start WWIII for Iran and will do everything they can to avoid direct conflict with the US and the west, but how about supplying Iran with a few systems to improve their air defence and their ability to strike warships at sea...

    Russia benefited from Iranian drones which they now licence produce but they improved the electronics and navigation systems which might benefit Iran to get similar upgrades.

    Their economy will shrink as soon as Iran starts firing its missiles.

    The US wants to be bold and decisive and send a clear message, but any increase in costs for oil or even just trade for the west is going to damage them more than many people think.

    The difference between a nuisance and something dangerous is numbers... what Russia can probably offer Iran is a coordination management system that allows a few controllers to direct a huge number of drones at one time to overwhelm the defences of a target and also cheap simple countermeasures to mount on their drones so each one isn't an easy kill. If the US needs to fire two missiles or more to deal with each drone then their ability to fight is greatly diminished.

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    thegopnik
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    Post  thegopnik Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:49 am

    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2 - Page 32 17069110
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:26 am





    The claims are : ( 1 ) American planes . ( 2 ) Only American planes . ( 3 ) Some flown from US soil . ( 4 ) Hit bases . ( 5 ) 85 bases . ( 6 ) Start of bombing campaign ( 7 ) No target hit inside Iran . The facts are :   ( 1 ) Attacked at night . ( 2 ) small warheads used . ( 3 ) One location contains perhaps small Rockets . ( 4 ) Reports of dead and injured .


    https://en.mehrnews.com/news/211607/US-bases-in-Syria-Iraq-come-under-airstrikes
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:01 am

    They didn't dare to touch the iranians.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:13 am

    ^


    Little comfort in this . Because IRGC personnel could have been killed in known Iranian bases . We have to wait and see , what Iranians say or do . No doubt attacks will continue and expand against US / UK / Zionist bases across the ME , irrespective of any unilateral Iranian response .


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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sat Feb 03, 2024 11:09 am

    The problem for the US is that the reciprocal response to the US attacking and killing Iranians in Syria and Iraq is for Iran to attack and kill Americans in Syria and Iraq.

    Something they would be capable of.

    Americas problem is that despite being a super power and with soldiers and troops and assets in many many countries around the world and of course mostly located in hotspots everywhere (their main role is to create and maintain those hotspots keeping the temperature up to justify their presence), it also means they have to over react to everything because the reality is if they got attacked in dozens or even hundreds of places at one time there is not a lot they could do to stop those attacks... they would be spread too thin to protect everything and everyone.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:49 pm



    Did you hear the joke about the Americans , who got blown up by IED ? ........I heard that they were spread too thinly on the ground !

    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2 - Page 32 1f602

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Feb 03, 2024 8:56 pm

    https://spoilsofwar.substack.com/p/admiral-fabuloso-thumps-his-tub

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/03/us-iran-proxy-war-00139445

    IMO this quazi war will go on till the end of 2024, so Biden can look no worse than now for his reelection; after that, all bets r off!
    https://scotthorton.org/interviews/2-1-24-matthew-hoh-on-what-war-with-iran-would-be-like/


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Feb 03, 2024 10:17 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:46 pm


    The state apparatus in USA , engaged in supporting Ukraine and now Israel in the ME , is now confronted by internal conflict in Texas . The Iranian state apparatus , engaged in supporting the resistance axis in the ME , is now confronted by internal conflict and disputed upcoming elections . It is like two boxers at the end of a bout , but both tired to throw any decisive punches .

    Iran refusing to retaliate against Israel , even for directly targeting it's advisors . Yanks refusing to retaliate against Iran , for targeting it's bases . Iran announcing perhaps the withdrawal of advisors from Syria / Iraq . And the Yanks announcing perhaps the withdrawal of troops from the same .

    Iran clearly will not engage in direct war . The resistance axis , applying pressure to Israel / Yanks . This level of pressure , may not be enough to stop the genocide in Gaza . In the absence of any real support from the rest of the Arabs and the world at large , then Gaza would cease to exist . The population driven out . This will not be the end of the story , but end of a chapter in this conflict .


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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:46 am

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/beware-the-iran-pearl-harbor-moment/

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    starman
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    Post  starman Tue Feb 06, 2024 10:41 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:https://www.theamericanconservative.com/beware-the-iran-pearl-harbor-moment/

    Thanks for this. Good thing the lunatic Haley is unlikely to be the next prez...


    Last edited by starman on Tue Feb 06, 2024 1:31 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Tue Feb 06, 2024 11:46 am


    The Americans are waiting for the right moment to attack . The countries they attacked in the ME , were without exception , undergoing civil disturbances . Easy job for their military . Biden showed his hands , during the Iranian protests , saying " ...we have to help Iranian people . " Trump is no different . As long as the Iranian military is united and organised , even without effective government or undergoing civil unrest or protests , then the cost of attack for them is unbearable . Therefore war unlikely now . But you never know , if situation changes in America , and Texas turns hot , and Iranian street protests turn hot and uncontrollable and Iranian military looses it's unity or cohesiveness then war is likely . And Americans need a diversion fast , then ......With the present situation of Iran backing the axis , and the genocide in Gaza , and the Israelis and Yanks and co , bombing freely , then the situation will not spread to general regional war .

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:10 am

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    Post  andalusia Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:06 am

    I just saw this article an would like to know could the Russian Air Defense System with S 400 take down the American B-1?

    What about the Chinese Air Defense System?

    Does the Russian Military fear the B-1?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/america-s-b-1-bomber-teaches-iran-a-firepower-lesson/ar-BB1i1ozk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e222e4e18c27454eb70a51d7ad3baf94&ei=40
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:03 am


    @ Tsavo Lion

    The video is very good analysis . It shows Iran can not hit back against US carriers or bases with navy or intercept plane or bombers with AD or air force or send army into ME countries to deal with bases . Iran's Army are completely useless .The American army is invincible and superior . The American politicians and Generals should believe this excellent video and attack Iran asap .

    Twisted Evil



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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:47 am

    The video is totally idiotic. Iran can hit targets anywhere in the Middle East with its IRBMs like the Sejjil with a 1500 kg payload.

    A lot of these missiles are stored underground in tunnels carved in the mountains. Air strikes would be of no use against those.

    Iran also has pretty advanced air defenses. They have the Rezonans long wave radar. They have imported S-300, Tor systems. And they have their own air defense systems which are not inferior to either of those.

    Their air force is old. Like late Cold War era. But it is a lie that they don't have modern weapons for it. They can launch smart bombs and precision guided weapons from their Su-22 aircraft for example. They can make their own modern clones of the AIM-54 Phoenix missiles for the F-14 aircraft.

    If the US bombed Iran, then US bases in the Middle East could be bombarded with massive missile salvos.

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    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 10, 2024 10:02 am

    lancelot wrote:The video is totally idiotic. Iran can hit targets anywhere in the Middle East with its IRBMs like the Sejjil with a 1500 kg payload.
    A lot of these missiles are stored underground in tunnels carved in the mountains. Air strikes would be of no use a
    Iran also has pretty advanced air defenses. They have the Rezonans long wave radar. They have imported S-300, Tor systems. And they have their own air defense systems which are not inferior to either of those.
    Their air force is old. Like late Cold War era. But it is a lie that they don't have modern weapons for it. They can launch smart bombs and precision guided weapons from their Su-22 aircraft for example. They can make their own modern clones of the AIM-54 Phoenix missiles for the F-14 aircraft.
    If the US bombed Iran, then US bases in the Middle East could be bombarded with massive missile salvos.

    Iran has something even more than that.
    It is their electronics.
    Because of the embargo, they were forced to construct a whole industry from scratch. It means, that they have their indigenous solutions.
    Processors, chips, everything.
    It makes the Iranian weapon much more potent because of being highly immune. It is simply different.
    For the last 50 years, they have adopted and studied US, UK, France and Germany-made weapons. They have studied Soviet weapons. And the Chinese ones.
    And at the end - they came out with their own pieces being just amazing.
    LAcking AIM-54, they have adopted both SM1 and Hawk missiles for being carried by F-14.
    The sole fact that those F-14S are airborne, after those 50 years, is mindblowing.
    Just take a look at how they have managed to keep their Boeings in flyable conditions, using every means possible.

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